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PoliGAF 2015-2016 |OT3| If someone named PhoenixDark leaves your party, call the cops

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B

Basileus777

Member
Black Mamba said:
You know, I can honestly say I have no idea how this GOP primary would be playing out right now if Trump never got involved.

Immigration probably wouldn't have been a major topic. Maybe Walker doesn't bow out so early. I have no idea. Trump really threw a gigantic wrench into this. Definitely more entertaining.
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Chris Christie would be taking his soul staring all the way to the nomination.
 
Y

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
Joe Scarborough running away from the democrat bullies that obviously gave him swirlees in middle school
 
O

OrangeGrayBlue

Member
Incognito said:
but hey, he's cool cuz he has the wu tang logo on his ipad! god, that show is awful.
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giphy.gif
 
C

Cesare Borgia

Banned
At least 07/08 Obama advocates were making logical arguments on why he could defeat Hillary. I have never heard a logical argument from a Sanders advocate on how he can become the nominee.
 
I

ItWasMeantToBe19

Banned
Hmm, how should I try to get involved in Doug Owens' campaign for the 4th district this year (v Mia Love)?

I'm studying to be a statistician so I want to do more than just knock on doors (though I will do that too!)... Hmm, not sure how to approach it.
 
R

RustyNails

Member
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
Sanders +8 assumed historic turnout of new, male voters. Clinton +29 assumes no people go to caucus other than people who voted in 2012 or 2014. The assumptions of pollsters are wildly different which is the overwhelming difference in the results.
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I'm still iffy of the Clinton +9 poll. I hope its true but I wanna be impartial on polling. From what I understand, it was conducted over three days.
Day 1 Clinton +14
Day 2 Clinton +9
Day 3 Clinton -1

Thats way too volatile. The trend showed clear downward for her too. Maybe they polled different regions over three days? +29 is clearly outlier. I honestly think the race is at +2 Clinton from Selzer poll.
 
H

HylianTom

Banned
Rebecca Berg ‏@rebeccagberg
Rubio just said Putin poisons people with "plutonium." A man near me corrects him under his breath: "Polonium. Close enough."

*giggle*
 
S

sc0la

Unconfirmed Member
Aaron Strife said:
More crossover support than Obama got, if it held.
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Didn't say the would vote (D) just that they would refuse to vote for Trump.

Also those numbers will temper when he is actually the candidate. It's sort of like the "I'll move to Canada" bullshit when push comes to shove, with a much lower opportunity cost.
 
U

User 463088

Banned
The Loras College poll is clearly an outlier, but technically their screen is a little more than only those who voted in 2012 or 2014. From their methodology:

Survey conducted with a random sample of registered voters (phone numbers drawn from official Iowa Secretary of State voter files of those who voted in either the 2012 or 2014 general election or who had registered since—last file update December 2015).

Likely caucus voter was defined as those indicating they were “definitely or very likely” to vote in the 2016 Iowa Caucus. Those indicating they were “somewhat likely” were subjected to further screen question regarding their general interest in politics. Only those indicating they were “very interested” in politics were then accepted within the sample as a likely caucus voter.

The sample was balanced for gender and age to approximate past caucus entrance polling, and divided across Iowa’s four congressional districts with reference to registration.

Survey included both landlines and cell phones (with an approximate 70-30 split).
The survey was conducted using live operator interviews through a contracted professional call center.

Script development and methodology used for the survey received input from Republican campaign consultant Brian Dumas and Democratic campaign consultant Dave Heller.
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That means it's obviously going to be pro-Hillary, but it's not completely ignoring every single person who has registered since. However, it does only pull people who are currently registered. If Bernie gets a lot of people to register on the day of...which if that's his strategy it's a stupid one.
 
I

ivysaur12

Banned
This is probably true:

Richard M. Nixon ‏
Justice Ginsburg did not want Roe v. Wade to be decided as it was.

Richard M. Nixon ‏
At the time she argued that the Court should have let abortion take hold in the states, as it was beginning to do, before ratifying it.

Richard M. Nixon ‏
The future will likely show that Kennedy was ready to grant gay marriage in U.S. v. Windsor, but Ginsburg prevailed on him to wait.
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S

shinra-bansho

Member
Our polling guru Scott Clement notes that the DMR/Bloomberg poll cited above had only a slightly smaller implied turnout [than the CNN/ORC poll which implied a historic turnout]
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Although I'm not sure how they extrapolated this exactly. Selzer is considered the gold standard of IA polling from memory, so it's still probably one of the best pictures of the situation.

And in the end the mish mash of polling results with different methods probably only tell us that the winner will be determined by 1) whoever can get people to the caucuses (new or old voters) and 2) the distribution of those people. The latter is probably an under-examined aspect of how IA will play out.

Cesare Borgia said:
I have never heard a logical argument from a Sanders advocate on how he can become the nominee.
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There's probably a logical sequence of events, but it just seems highly unlikely.
1) Sanders wins IA.
2) Sanders wins NH.
3) These upsets drive a Clinton in disarray narrative.
4) Clinton underperforms in SC and underperforms or loses in NV. This continues above narrative.
5) Minority voters reassess the electability of each candidate due to above narrative, which starts swinging other states towards Sanders.
And so on and so forth.

Or she gets indicted.
 
V

Veritigo_X

Member
Donald J. Trump @realDonaldTrump
Ted Cruz went down big in just released Reuters poll - what's going on? Is it Goldman Sachs/Citi loans or Canada?
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Donald J. Trump ‏@realDonaldTrump
Just watched Jeb's ad where he desperately needed mommy to help him. Jeb --- mom can't help you with ISIS, the Chinese or with Putin.
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This guy.
 
Y

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
who cares about barbara bush? what year is it? do they think she is some kind of tastemaker in the republican party today?

you want to know who the tastemaker is now? it's sarah palin, you monsters.
 
W

watershed

Banned
I wonder if Christie is going to drop out after NH? The debates are going to look a lot different after the first round of candidates go away. I wonder if Christie thinks his tough guy attitude will work better against Trump when there are only 4 or fewer candidates left.
 
M

Manmademan

Member
watershed said:
I wonder if Christie is going to drop out after NH? The debates are going to look a lot different after the first round of candidates go away. I wonder if Christie thinks his tough guy attitude will work better against Trump when there are only 4 or fewer candidates left.
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You're going to see mass dropouts after new hampshire. Christie, Kasich, and Bush are all throwing all of their eggs in there and hoping to ride a surprise second place finish to later primaries. I'd probably throw paul and fiorina in there as well but they should be gone already. Santorum and Huckabee are done after iowa.

Whichever comes in second will likely hang out for a while longer- If Cruz takes second, all three are gone.
 
I

ItWasMeantToBe19

Banned
Manmademan said:
You're going to see mass dropouts after new hampshire. Christie, Kasich, and Bush are all throwing all of their eggs in there and hoping to ride a surprise second place finish to later primaries. I'd probably throw paul and fiorina in there as well but they should be gone already. Santorum and Huckabee are done after iowa.

Whichever comes in second will likely hang out for a while longer- If Cruz takes second, all three are gone.
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Right to Rise has like 40 million left to burn, they'll keep going even if Jeb finishes 6th in NH. Jeb's third place finish in SC will provide the momentum!
 
M

Manmademan

Member
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
They've spent $60 million... But that leaves $40 million left for more shitty ads!
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As tragic as the inevitable victory of donald trump is, the REAL damage from all this will be the inevitable pointing of conservative justices to the 2016 primaries as proof that citizens united should stay because PAC money doesn't really matter
 
W

watershed

Banned
So basically Rubio is going to be the last gasp of the GOP establishment to go against Trum p and Cruz if these dynamics hold. In other words, the GOP is screwed.
 
V

Veritigo_X

Member
Ad spending as of the 20th:

Team Bush: $58.8 million ($55.9M from Right to Rise Super PAC, $2.9M from campaign)

Team Rubio: $32.6 million ($11.6M from campaign, $11.2M from Super PAC, $9.9M from 501c4)

Team Sanders: $12.8 million (all from campaign)

Team Clinton: $11.6 million ($11.4M from campaign, $200K from Priorities USA Super PAC)

Team Christie: $11.4 million ($10.9M from Super PAC, $480K from campaign)

Team Kasich: $10.8 million ($267K from campaign, rest from outside groups)

Team Carson: $4.6 million ($4.4 million from campaign, $200K from Super PAC)

Team Cruz: $4.2 million ($1.9M from campaign, rest from outside groups)

Team Trump: $4 million (all from campaign)

Team Fiorina: $1.0 million (all from Super PAC)

Team O'Malley: $219,000 (all from Super PAC)
Click to expand...

http://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/bush-rubio-have-spent-combined-91m-ads-vs-trump-cruz-n500456
 
J

Jack Remington

Banned
Cesare Borgia said:
At least 07/08 Obama advocates were making logical arguments on why he could defeat Hillary. I have never heard a logical argument from a Sanders advocate on how he can become the nominee.
Click to expand...

He wins the first two, polls show him getting close in South Carolina, so he wins that too. He's been rising a lot in the polls, and if you extrapolate the current trend he'll be at like 80% by December.
 
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