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PoliGAF 2015-2016 |OT3| If someone named PhoenixDark leaves your party, call the cops
- Thread starter Diablos
- Start date
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Basileus777
Member
A weakened Cruz that loses in Iowa doesn't mean that he will drop out. He'll lose support, some to Rubio, some to Trump, but he's going to stay in the race with some support long enough to prevent consolidation behind an establishment candidate. This scenario isn't poor for Trump at all, it puts him in a commanding position considering the primary schedule where he will easily take South Carolina and most of the March 1st states. It's far better for Trump for Cruz to wither and let Trump build an edge in the South.
QuiteWhittle
Member
3-2-1 plan in action.
That goes for everybody.
Black Mamba
Member
Ideally, for the democrats, I think this is the best case scenario given the situation.
Iowa:
1. Cruz
2. Trump
3+ irrelevant
New Hamphire:
1. Trump
2. Cruz
3. Jeb!
4. Kasich
5. Rubio
6. Christie
In this scenario, Rubio and Christie are dead. Kasich too, probably. It becomes Trump vs Cruz with Jeb! being the "moderate" choice.
Just keep Rubio away from top 2 in NH please.
If Cruz does poorly in NH after losing Ia, there's a chance he doesn't matter and if Rubio comes in second in NH he becomes a real candidate.
Iowa:
1. Cruz
2. Trump
3+ irrelevant
New Hamphire:
1. Trump
2. Cruz
3. Jeb!
4. Kasich
5. Rubio
6. Christie
In this scenario, Rubio and Christie are dead. Kasich too, probably. It becomes Trump vs Cruz with Jeb! being the "moderate" choice.
Just keep Rubio away from top 2 in NH please.
Right, but as I said, he may become insignificant.
If Cruz does poorly in NH after losing Ia, there's a chance he doesn't matter and if Rubio comes in second in NH he becomes a real candidate.
Swear to fuckin' god, I thought this was from the 2012 election, expecting it to be contextually similar to a current candidate's situation, then I remembered. :X
Jack Remington
Banned
Bu bu but Hillary deleted 30,000 emails, so shouldn't she be looking at 300,000 (or 600,000) years in prison?
Posting this because I KNOW for a fact this will come up in a right-wing op-ed by tomorrow.
shinra-bansho
Member
I thought Santorum had already dropped out for some reason.
Bullshit! He's just taking time away from Trump at this point.
User 463088
Banned
If he had any integrity, he wouldn't show up.
Of course, he doesn't, so he will, but...you know.
Gross
Cesare Borgia
Banned
A good point. These last few months have shown Clinton Delusion might be worse than Obama Delusion on the far right (and "moderate" right).
Frank the Great
Banned
Haha Christie. God, I want him to get fifth in NH so bad.
The motherfucker was already back in NH today after that huge storm, and he told reporters who questioned him that there was no serious damage or flooding. Meanwhile, Wildwood and other shore towns are completely underwater! This guy is unbelievable.
I hope we pass that law requiring governors to resign if they want to run for President. The dude has completely abandoned his post.
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
One of my friends is normally cool but is a Bernie Stan. Had a near hour long conversation that went like this:
Him: "What do you think of rape culture?"
Me: "What."
Him: "False rape accusations are oppressing men and making society terrible now and they're really frequent!"
Me: "..."
Him: "I mean, do you know anyone you think could be a rapist? It's not very common!"
Me: "Several of my family members are rapists and I've known other women that have been raped."
Him: "Uh... Well that's terrible... But feminists should still be focusing on campaign finance reform instead!"
I'm not even looking for "Bernie Stans can be weird sometimes and completely one-dimension" and it keeps hitting me anyway, ugh.
Him: "What do you think of rape culture?"
Me: "What."
Him: "False rape accusations are oppressing men and making society terrible now and they're really frequent!"
Me: "..."
Him: "I mean, do you know anyone you think could be a rapist? It's not very common!"
Me: "Several of my family members are rapists and I've known other women that have been raped."
Him: "Uh... Well that's terrible... But feminists should still be focusing on campaign finance reform instead!"
I'm not even looking for "Bernie Stans can be weird sometimes and completely one-dimension" and it keeps hitting me anyway, ugh.
Atomic Playboy
Member
I hope we pass a law that requires Presidential candidates can't declare until 4 weeks prior to the first primaries. Also, move the primaries up to be within 3 months of the general election. No more of this 24-month campaigning period bullshit. 4 months is plenty. And it deals with your problem as well, since Christie wouldn't be bouncing around the country desperately trying to be liked; he could be free to completely fuck things up in New Jersey for another 5 months.
Thanks for that, I literally spit some of what I was eating out onto my iPad while laughing.
Fenderputty
Banned
Heh ... wouldn't put it past the GOP to try in some fashion. I'm just expecting Fiorina to continue on as though this never happened is all.
EDIT: This thread is moving really fast lol
Hillary is weak and lacks stamina.
Rafa=FedKilla
Banned
She is definitely going to try. If Trump held his own town hall, he would just need to do his stump speech and say maybe one or two semi controversial things and suck all media coverage from the debate.
Black Mamba
Member
For the Dems, what is interesting is about 80% of Bernie supporters said they'd vote for Hillary in a GE. Bernie's wasn't much higher.
The democrats are going to be united.
Meanwhile, 20% of GOPers said no to Trump, 14% to Jeb. Now, you might think this is not much different, but GOP voters skew older and more reliable as a voter. The people who won't vote Hillary are young voters that don't vote much anyway, so nothing is lost. But for the GOP, if even 10% of normal caucus voters don't vote for Trump/Bush and stay home, what does that tell you!?
gutter_trash
Banned
''where did she go? They started the second half without her? Disgusting!''
Black Mamba
Member
whoops, my above post was quoting this poll, not the other one.
Also interesting:
And now looking at all the polling, even if you think the truth is between the two, this means Bernie loses.
The polls, IMO, are clearly indicating a win for Hillary. But we'll see if the polling is accurate.
I honestly don't understand the reaction to Trump saying "I can shoot someone and people will still vote for me". It was clearly a joke. Even on CNN, Wolf Blitzer was saying: "I think you were joking" while interviewing Trump. Of course he was! And the audience loved it. Why is that even a question?
Cesare Borgia
Banned
I'm going to go with
Iowa:
1. Cruz by 5
2. Trump
3. Irrelevant (Rubio)
1. Clinton by 4
2. Sanders
3. Stuart Jones
Iowa:
1. Cruz by 5
2. Trump
3. Irrelevant (Rubio)
1. Clinton by 4
2. Sanders
3. Stuart Jones
That's why I find the constant concern trolling of "wacko Bernie supporters betraying the party" a little overbearing in this thread and outside.
Did we forget 2008 election?
Gallup 3-28-08: If McCain vs. Obama, 28% of Clinton Backers Go for McCain
CNN 8-26-08: Angry Clinton supporters toast McCain, roast Obama
Obama went on to demolish.
You will always have your staunch crazies who claim hell and high water that they'll go for the other party or not vote at all. But once the polls close on election day, they don't matter because they're such an insignificant portion of the Dem electorate even if they do go through with the temper-tantrum (many
Eh - that seems a little harsh. Though I'll admit that his writing pointed me towards Baldwin, and he does seem like a Baldwin cover band. That's still high praise considering Baldwin's work though. The reparations thing feels like...it feels like now his articles are all written with reparations as the pre-determined solution to said given problem or his argument. The logical fallacy about Coates' "if you say you are radical, you must be radical in all things, and I am going to define what the radical views are" - that's a load of crap.
Worse is his point about Lincoln. The Corwin Amendment, anyone? (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Corwin_Amendment)
As I've said before - I'm to the left of HRC but right of Sanders - but TNC's criticisms of Sanders are...perplexing at best, and damn well near hitjob level at worst (on the timing and the intellectual dishonesty and laziness of the Civil War era "radicals"). I also would fall into those "aspirational Obama" liberals he disagrees with (and the irony that a 40 year old black man considers the 55 year old first black president to not understand the true "history" of their situation is not lost on me) - but I also think his views are colored heavily by his rough upbringing and overall pessimism. He's..very American? in his belief that if it doesn't change immediately, it will never get better. He writes about how his dad's views (who was a Black Panther) influenced him - and I wonder as he gets older, he will end up falling towards that same ideology.
There's a saying that a friend of mine from Europe told me about a simple way to explain the differences between Americans and Europeans - in Europe, 100 miles is a long distance; in America, 100 years is a long time. Whenever I think of our reaction to our policies and where they are going, I try to remind myself of that.
You mean to tell me there are 20% of Dems who wouldn't get in line? Are you serious right now?
WACKY BERNIE is my favorite. Just because he finally went and cut his hair.
Also how is it best if Jebra places third? Jebra is not dropping out ever until at least Florida. So we need Christie to stay in and kasich to stay in to continue to allow room for trump to roll.
Also FUCK CHRISTIE
Also how is it best if Jebra places third? Jebra is not dropping out ever until at least Florida. So we need Christie to stay in and kasich to stay in to continue to allow room for trump to roll.
Also FUCK CHRISTIE
What does Jeb have to gain for staying that long? Trump is killing it in Florida anyway. There's no way Jeb can win it.
Jebra is fucking delusional in case you haven't noticed. He's not dropping after NH. He will stay in. We need lots of of establishment poo swimming in the sewer to make this interesting. That's why as much as it pains me, I think Rubio needs to place third and Christie 4th.
Until Trump wins South Carolina and his momentum becomes unstoppable atleast.
shinra-bansho
Member
Jeb will unite the party at the brokered convention. The tortoise wins.
Black Mamba
Member
That's what they claim today.
But it shouldn't noted that.
1. Some will fall in line when push comes to shove.
2. Some, if not many, wouldn't vote anyway aren't even really Democrats.
And in swing states, these numbers will drop even more.
I'm a big Noam fan, but even if you don't agree with most of his arguments afaik he has always been fairly realistic about voting that way. Said same about Obama.
Wouldn't it be spelled Jeborah?
He doesn't have enough energy to type of the last two letters.
Cesare Borgia
Banned
Will Jeb stay for Super Tuesday? I'm assuming he'll stay for SC and NV, both of which he'll lose handily. But by then things could look different. Christie (or Kasich), Carson, Fiorina, Paul, Santorum, and Huckabee will be gone. Rubio could be dealing with a scandal. Maybe Jeb stays and becomes the establishment choice...
Probably not. What a disaster.
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
1. Mitt runs as a fourth party and barely campaigns.
2. Mitt splits vote such that no candidate gets 270 EV.
3. President Romney!
Retromelon
Member
Please let this be real. Rand is the truth
http://www.buzzfeed.com/rubycramer/...alk-to-you-about-love-and-kindness#.voJqbDrr2
Loooooong piece, but really interesting.
Loooooong piece, but really interesting.
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