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PoliGAF 2015-2016 |OT3| If someone named PhoenixDark leaves your party, call the cops

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I

Into

Member
If it makes you feel better, i think there lurks something far worse behind Cruz eyes than Trumps. And Trump will likely take him out.
 
D

Daniel B·

Banned
Holmes said:
Listen, I had the unfortunate privilege of listening to The Young Turk's "analysis" of the town hall last night as I was falling asleep while my husband was listening to it. It was basically just praising everything Sanders said and how he'll so obviously win now, and how Clinton doesn't care about campaign finance reform or climate change. They brought up the right-wing talking point of Benghazi against her and further legitimized it. And they didn't even talk about O'Malley's responses at all, they just criticised him for standing up and rolling up his sleeves, and shrugged him off. So it's like whatever. They can have their hugbox, that's fine, but obviously like-minded people are going to be attracted to that and it's no big surprise that their videos have 30k views.
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The rating indicators are a good guide for any early "blow back", on the hosts opinions, as you will quite often see, for some reason, when they talk passionately about strengthening gun control...

But, I am quite confident that an independent viewer of the coverage would agree that Bernie had an excellent night, and Hillary's segment exhibited clear bias by the CNN host, and her respondes initially sounded wholly forced. She did significantly improve, but for anyone who was playing close attention, she came across as being too eager to strike deals with the Republicans.
 
R

Roland_Gunner

Member
Cybit said:
Because Trump isn't fighting with ideology, he's fighting with identity. Lower middle class / ex factory workers / anyone who has ever been hosed by globalization (primarily white) is the target he's looking for. He's breaking one of the Republican seams apart (big business and lower middle class / poor rural whites) and grabbing the latter.

It's a long time between now and November; and depending who he faces, he could make an identity play against both HRC and Sanders

HRC: He hits Clinton on being sexist (I know, it's ridiculous, but it could easily work) - the people who would be made upset by that are already in HRC's camp, and you start going after men age 20-30 (who are less likely to have a college degree, and if not married, earn less than their unmarried women counterparts who are more like to have college degrees). Play to the lowest common denominator; pound on "PC" and "false rape accusations" and <insert MRA panding shenanigans> here.
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But none of that gets him to 50% in the GE. There just aren't that many working class white Dem voters any more. Trump has to chip off some black or hispanic voters to get there. The best theory I've heard is to try to attract black voters by playing on resentment of immigrants driving down wages. Its possible I guess, but still a long shot.
 
P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Cybit said:
Cruz might be the single biggest reason why Trump wins the nomination. If Cruz wasn't around, I suspect the party might unite and deal with Trump. But everyone in the GOP hates Cruz so much, they'd rather nominate Trump than deal with Cruz.

People must absolutely despise that man.
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Which is absolutely amazing to me. What in the world can you do to make EVERYONE in Washington hate you? That's insane.
 
J

johnsmith

remember me
Trump should get a George Zimmerman endorsement right before the Florida primary if he hasn't won by then. It would be the ultimate troll move.
 
I

Into

Member
18 year old Ted Cruz on his aspirations

Think Travolta, but not as handsome.

wjeSqbe.jpg
 
A

A Human Becoming

More than a Member
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
No Republicans have called Trump a racist in this race. Democrats have called Trump and a racist, and guess what? His favorables with non-Republicans are complete shit. Everyone hates him other than the racists who are Republicans.
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Well, Lindsey Graham might as well calling him a "race baiting, xenophobic, religious bigot". I've never heard such a critical statement between two people of the same party.
 
H

Holmes

Member
Bam Bam Baklava said:
All these Sanders supporters posting links to stuff Tom Delay says is blowing my mind.
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I see a lot of Sanders supporters use right-wing talking points and controversies to attack Clinton. I think these people, who probably account for a non-negligible portion of Sanders' base, aren't supporting him for his left-wing policies, but instead hate the idea of Clinton that Sanders and his supporters have created and believe in their hearts to be true. It's the "Sanders -> Trump" supporters we all see and laugh about. But I think it's dangerous.
 
H

Holmes

Member
Daniel B·;193378244 said:
The rating indicators are a good guide for any early "blow back", on the hosts opinions, as you will quite often see, for some reason, when they talk passionately about strengthening gun control...

But, I am quite confident that an independent viewer of the coverage would agree that Bernie had an excellent night, and Hillary's segment exhibited clear bias by the CNN host, and her respondes initially sounded wholly forced. She did significantly improve, but for anyone who was playing close attention, she came across as being too eager to strike deals with the Republicans.
Click to expand...
If you need to cry "moderator bias" to explain your opponent's performance, then deep down you're admitting that your guy had a worse time and it must be because of how the other person was treated. It's not a good excuse.
 
A

A Human Becoming

More than a Member
Holmes said:
I see a lot of Sanders supporters use right-wing talking points and controversies to attack Clinton. I think these people, who probably account for a non-negligible portion of Sanders' base, aren't supporting him for his left-wing policies, but instead hate the idea of Clinton that Sanders and his supporters have created and believe in their hearts to be true. It's the "Sanders -> Trump" supporters we all see and laugh about. But I think it's dangerous.
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I truly believe these generalizations are deeply flawed. If you have seen polling that many Bernie supporters are simply anti-Clinton, please share it. As I believe it was Daniel who pointed it yesterday, these constant attacks on Bernie supporters is a telling difference between the two candidates.

EDIT: Let me rephrase that a bit. I guess my question is what you consider non-negligible. "A lot of" is easy to find when you're looking for it. I'm not saying these people don't exist, because I've seen it too, simply it's overstated by you and others here.
 
U

ugaboga232

Member
Holmes said:
I see a lot of Sanders supporters use right-wing talking points and controversies to attack Clinton. I think these people, who probably account for a non-negligible portion of Sanders' base, aren't supporting him for his left-wing policies, but instead hate the idea of Clinton that Sanders and his supporters have created and believe in their hearts to be true. It's the "Sanders -> Trump" supporters we all see and laugh about. But I think it's dangerous.
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Are there any stats of people who would go sanders to trump? I would like to think the vast majority will go for clinton over trump just like in 2008. There are assholes in every single group of humans, nothing short of carbon dioxide turning into prozac will change that.
 
I

Into

Member
I wouldn't fear Sanders supporters going Trump

I would however fear them just not voting, considering he seems to be popular with the youth vote and they generally fail to show up.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
Makai said:
They don't know who he is and assume he's a real source.
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Yeah it seems like a lot of the low-info Bernie supporters whose recollection of politics goes back maybe to 2008, and only with regards to presidential elections.

DeLay's legal troubles were a contributing factor to Democrats' win in 2006, it became too easy to paint the GOP leadership as corrupt sleazebags.

Bernie rally in three hours woo see you there Erasure. Just look for this guy:

12593962_10208708452807449_6328289316681135387_o.jpg
Click to expand...
 
N

NeoXChaos

Member
A Human Becoming said:
I truly believe these generalizations are deeply flawed. If you have seen polling that many Bernie supporters are simply anti-Clinton, please share it. As I believe it was Daniel who pointed it yesterday, these constant attacks on Bernie supporters is a telling difference between the two candidates.

EDIT: Let me rephrase that a bit. I guess my question is what you consider non-negligible. "A lot of" is easy to find when you're looking for it. I'm not saying these people don't exist, because I've seen it too, simply it's overstated by you and others here.
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GAF is hard not to find a small sub-set. There is no need to be upset. Obviously we are not talking about you reasonable supporters. I would not necessarily consider it an attack. We respond to the unfair character assassination of Hillary in a respectful tone.
 
J

JesseEwiak

Member
Frankly, I think a lot of the people who post Republican's saying nice things about Bernie are just horribly naive and don't realize they're trying to fuck the Democrats over. I mean, I'm a geek - if some random representative says something, there's a decent chance I know the type of scumbag he is. Some 17 year old whose hyped because Bernie's the first leftist voice they've heard doesn't know any better.
 
C

Cesare Borgia

Banned
GAF largely seems to consist of younger, less informed voters. Many of whom haven't really participated in the political process until an outsider candidate sparked their interest (see: Paul, Obama, Sanders). Those voters tend to be the most animated and absolutist towards their candidate of choice, ie the "it's either [insert candidate] or no one" mentality.

The most moderate or sane Sanders supporters are older and don't post on internet forums so I wouldn't make broad comments about how Sanders supporters act. Same could be said of 2008 Obama supporters. If he had lost, the majority of his voters would have voted for Clinton in November. Likewise I would expect a majority of Sanders voters to select Clinton in November.

I remember quite a bit of breathless coverage of Clinton "Pumas" who wouldn't vote for Obama. In the end it wasn't an issue at all.
 
C

Cybit

FGC Waterboy
Joe Shlabotnik said:
This would do nothing except lose more women than gain men. The bitter MRA types are already in Trump's camp, and sure as shit aren't in Hillary's. Conversely, there are probably a lot more women (and men) across the spectrum, except for dyed-in-the-wool anti-feminists of both genders who would be turned off by absurd accusations of sexism towards Hillary.
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I think that there's a libertarian-ish gap (think many of your male reddit-user types) that are currently with Sanders, but could be appealed to via identity to potentially switch to Trump. It's one of the reasons I think Sanders does better against Trump in one on one polling rather than Clinton. That said, I think Sanders voters who claim to go to Trump are like most people who claim they are moderate in this country - they're not really, but they just want to have some kind of leverage.

Clinton's already said some choice sound bytes - and she could potentially go overboard (http://www.usnews.com/news/the-report/articles/2015/10/23/hillary-clinton-plays-the-gender-card) if she's not careful (I also just generally assume the DNC is incompetent as all hell, so keep that in mind). I could also see some baiting using statistics to try to cement the idea that she's going overboard with the gender card.

I agree in that I think it would most likely backfire - but there's a conceivable path, and that's what worries me.
 
N

NYCmetsfan

Banned
I'm sorry. But this whole Bernie thing is showing despite how much fun we had attacking the tea party for their stupidity and out of touchness with the nation the left is vulnerable to the same shit.

I don't see much difference between Sanders demand for single payer and free college and the tea party thinking they were going to win the shutdown and force Democrats to vote for obamacare to be repealed.

That and the common belief that the majority of Americans believe in the same things they do. Never mind the unyielding apocalypticism.

I agree Bernie is more right than the tea party. But polically I don't see much difference.
 
B

Black Mamba

Member
Into said:
I wouldn't fear Sanders supporters going Trump

I would however fear them just not voting, considering he seems to be popular with the youth vote and they generally fail to show up.
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What's to fear? They wouldn't have voted, anyway.

Remember, we're talking about a really small segment of voters. A segment that already 80% would still vote for Hillary (my guess is closer to 90%). And the ones that don't vote weren't going to originally or were concentrated in blue states like Cali and NY where their support is irrelevant.

Hillary being the dem nominee and not turning out a small percentage of Berniestans will not hurt her in Florida, Ohio, Colorado, Va, etc.
 
C

Cesare Borgia

Banned
Black Mamba said:
What's to fear? They wouldn't have voted, anyway.

Remember, we're talking about a really small segment of voters. A segment that already 80% would still vote for Hillary (my guess is closer to 90%). And the ones that don't vote weren't going to originally or were concentrated in blue states like Cali and NY where their support is irrelevant.

Hillary being the dem nominee and not turning out a small percentage of Berniestans will not hurt her in Florida, Ohio, Colorado, Va, etc.
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Not to mention the potential for Hillary to win over some moderate republicans who are disgusted by Cruz or Trump.
 
B

Black Mamba

Member
Cesare Borgia said:
Not to mention the potential for Hillary to win over some moderate republicans who are disgusted by Cruz or Trump.
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And increase latino turnout. And possibly bring in some women who otherwise wouldn't have voted. Or bring in some whites who didn't want to vote for Obama but proudly voted for Bill.

I think Hillary is a better choice because she can create a larger coalition of voters. And I think the current bernie supporters are a part of that.
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
Got to admit, I am pretty nervous about Iowa. Sanders had such a good surge to start January but it has slowed right down and I'm not sure he's going to get enough to make up for his rural disadvantage. I'm really starting to think Sanders popular vote, Clinton delegates is the most likely outcome and that would such. :/
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
Black Mamba said:
And increase latino turnout. And possibly bring in some women who otherwise wouldn't have voted. Or bring in some whites who didn't want to vote for Obama but proudly voted for Bill.

I think Hillary is a better choice because she can create a larger coalition of voters. And I think the current bernie supporters are a part of that.
Click to expand...

Clinton's Latino numbers aren't actually that impressive. It's African Americans she dominates.
 
N

noshten

Member
NYCmetsfan said:
I'm sorry. But this whole Bernie thing is showing despite how much fun we had attacking the tea party for their stupidity and out of touchness with the nation the left is vulnerable to the same shit.

I don't see much difference between Sanders demand for single payer and free college and the tea party thinking they were going to win the shutdown and force Democrats to vote for obamacare to be repealed.

That and the common belief that the majority of Americans believe in the same things they do. Never mind the unyielding apocalypticism.

I agree Bernie is more right than the tea party. But polically I don't see much difference.
Click to expand...

Yep things that the large majority of Americans support is the same as the Tea Party wanting to shut down the government. Thank you for the invaluable input, it appears some democrats go down the same path of fear mongering as the Republicans usually employee.
 
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