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PoliGAF 2015-2016 |OT3| If someone named PhoenixDark leaves your party, call the cops

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B

Bowdz

Member
Look, that poll is truly amazing, something really special believe me. The people who did that poll are just very great guys because, as you can see, Trump is absolutely crushing it, truly. Trump almost feels sorry for Jeb! (aughghugh). I mean really, look how far Jeb! has fallen. What a truly low energy guy. Absolutely, what an amazing poll.
 
benjipwns

benjipwns

Banned
In order to participate in the main debate, candidates must meet one of three criteria in polls conducted between October 29 and December 13 and recognized by CNN: An average of at least 3.5% nationally, at least 4% in Iowa, or at least 4% in New Hampshire.

CNN also announced that it, along with Facebook and Salem Media, will hold a second debate for Republican candidates who do not meet the criteria for the main debate. To qualify for the earlier debate, candidates must reach at least 1% in four separate national, Iowa, or New Hampshire polls that are recognized by CNN
Click to expand...
So...assuming they would use something like the RCP Average that's...

Main Debate:
Trump, Carson, Cruz, Rubio, Jeb?!?!?, Kasich, Christie, Fiorina, Paul (last four all via NH)

JV Debate:
Huckabee and Santorum (via Iowa) one-on-one

Maybe George Pataki will just forget he's running for President. Him, Jim Gilmore, Lindsey Graham and Martin O'Malley should have their own debate. With blackjack and hookers.

In fact, forget the debate. And the blackjack.
 
C

Cheebo

Banned
I really really really hope Cruz wins the nom, more than Trump. Trump is WAAAAAAAY too unpredictable. After surviving endless things that should kill his candidacy I remain wary on being 100% confident on him coming down to earth in the general if he was able to somehow survive the primary.
 
M

Makai

Member
Cheebo said:
I really really really hope Cruz wins the nom, more than Trump. Trump is WAAAAAAAY too unpredictable. After surviving endless things that should kill his candidacy I remain wary on being 100% confident on him coming down to earth in the general if he was able to somehow survive the primary.
Click to expand...
The unpredictability is exactly why I want Trump to win. I don't want the twists to stop.
 
B

Bowdz

Member
Cheebo said:
I really really really hope Cruz wins the nom, more than Trump. Trump is WAAAAAAAY too unpredictable. After surviving endless things that should kill his candidacy I remain wary on being 100% confident on him coming down to earth in the general if he was able to somehow survive the primary.
Click to expand...

I definitely think he woukld do better in the general than people give him credit for, it I still don't think he'd have a chance in hell to win the whole thing. Hilldawg will expand the Hispanic and female vote like crazy if Trump is the nominee and that should easily be able to put her over the top in the must win states.
 
B

BSsBrolly

Banned
Cheebo said:
I really really really hope Cruz wins the nom, more than Trump. Trump is WAAAAAAAY too unpredictable. After surviving endless things that should kill his candidacy I remain wary on being 100% confident on him coming down to earth in the general if he was able to somehow survive the primary.
Click to expand...

God no. Fuck Ted Cruz, nothing scares me more than a Cruz presidency. It would be disastrous.
 
C

Cheebo

Banned
BSsBrolly said:
God no. Fuck Ted Cruz, nothing scares me more than a Cruz presidency. It would be disastrous.
Click to expand...

My feeling is that Cruz would be doomed to be wiped out by Clinton. Trump SHOULD be, but he is way too unpredictable that the laws of political gravity don't seem to apply to him and I am wary of taking that risk all the way through.
 
M

Makai

Member
Cheebo said:
My feeling is that Cruz would be doomed to be wiped out by Clinton. Trump SHOULD be, but he is way too unpredictable that the laws of political gravity don't seem to apply to him and I am wary of taking that risk all the way through.
Click to expand...
Do you still think Rubio will be the nominee? You seemed pretty certain earlier.
 
C

Cheebo

Banned
Makai said:
Do you still think Rubio will be the nominee? You seemed pretty certain earlier.
Click to expand...

I do, Rubio is far and away my pick to win it all in the end. I have seen nothing to change that in the slightest.

I don't want Rubio to be then nominee, but I am pretty certain he will be.

My top 3 preference for nominee:
1. Carson
2. Cruz
3. Trump

My top 3 predictions for nominee:
1. Rubio
2. Cruz
3. Trump
 
M

Maledict

Member
Cheebo said:
My feeling is that Cruz would be doomed to be wiped out by Clinton. Trump SHOULD be, but he is way too unpredictable that the laws of political gravity don't seem to apply to him and I am wary of taking that risk all the way through.
Click to expand...

I unfortunately hold the opposite view. Cruz is a loathe some, morally bankrupt vile individual - but he knows how to campaign, he knows how to play to his base and he knows how to debate. He has run the smartest traditional campaign so far (alongside Christie in NH), and the guy is a master at spinning pure evil into rational sound bites. He will motivate the base hugely due to his evangelical connections and fervour and the fact he's managed to straddle the 'knows how to do politics, is seen as an outsider' balancing act superbly.

I also think his campaign is the best - I agree completely with their assessment of how republican primaries work, and his strategy for navigating that is paying off. Whilst it doesn't translate completely, running a smart primary campaign bodes well for a general election.

My money is on Cruz now winning, and I honestly think he's a threat.
 
M

Makai

Member
I'm almost inverse of you

Top 3 preference:
1. Trump
2. Christie
3. Carson

Top 3 predictions:
1. Trump
2. Cruz
3. Rubio
 
V

Veritigo_X

Member
Republicans really think Trump can solve all this country's problems. His lead over everyone on individual issues in that CNN poll is something else.

Best handle the economy: 55%, Cruz in second at 9%
Illegal immigration: 48%, Rubio in second at 14%
Foreign policy: 30%, Cruz in second at 17%
ISIS: 46%, Cruz in second at 15%
Federal budget: 51%, Cruz in second at 10%
 
S

sangreal

Member
Maledict said:
I unfortunately hold the opposite view. Cruz is a loathe some, morally bankrupt vile individual - but he knows how to campaign, he knows how to play to his base and he knows how to debate. He has run the smartest traditional campaign so far (alongside Christie in NH), and the guy is a master at spinning pure evil into rational sound bites. He will motivate the base hugely due to his evangelical connections and fervour and the fact he's managed to straddle the 'knows how to do politics, is seen as an outsider' balancing act superbly.

I also think his campaign is the best - I agree completely with their assessment of how republican primaries work, and his strategy for navigating that is paying off. Whilst it doesn't translate completely, running a smart primary campaign bodes well for a general election.

My money is on Cruz now winning, and I honestly think he's a threat.
Click to expand...

could not agree more on all points. I am terrified that Cruz is going to win this thing
 
I

ItWasMeantToBe19

Banned
Oh yeah, Cruz is going to win a general election when he's talking about massively cutting taxes on the rich and paying for that with a VAT. Sure. And the man who hates all gay people is going to win in an America where even Republicans have said "you know, gay marriage hasn't made my life any worse." You guys are freaking out over nothing.
 
F

Frank the Great

Banned
Cruz's slime factor should not be understated. The dude looks and talks like a piece of shit who you wouldn't feel comfortable watching your kid for five minutes.

Most voters decide based on likeability and this dude is on another level of filth. He can fool Republicans but general election voters will see right through his facade.

He will also be incredibly easy to define as a tea party extremist; he has proudly worn that label for years. That alone will sink him in the general.
 
C

Cheebo

Banned
Makai said:
Then how does Rubio win? It's hard to imagine all of his competitors dropping out before it's too late.
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The tea party wing has too many candidates with Trump, Cruz & Carson splitting the vote. Rubios only establishment opposition was Bush who is a dead man walking.
 
C

Coriolanus

Banned
Frank the Great said:
Cruz's slime factor should not be understated. The dude looks and talks like a piece of shit who you wouldn't feel comfortable watching your kid for five minutes.

Most voters decide based on likeability and this dude is on another level of filth. He can fool Republicans but general election voters will see right through his facade.

He will also be incredibly easy to define as a tea party extremist; he has proudly worn that label for years. That alone will sink him in the general.
Click to expand...

Counterpoint: the man is running in the country that elected Nixon. Likeability, while very important, has its value decreased if going against someone that doesnt fare very well in that regard either.
 
R

Roland_Gunner

Member
Coriolanus said:
Counterpoint: the man is running in the country that elected Nixon. Likeability, while very important, has its value decreased if going against someone that doesnt fare very well in that regard either.
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The fact that you have to go back nearly 50 years to find a President as unlikable as Cruz is telling. Plus Nixon was running against a Democratic party that had been ripped apart by the Civil Rights act. These Dems are as unified as they've been since the FDR / Truman days.
 
B

BertramCooper

Banned
We're also talking about a completely different media landscape than existed in Nixon's time, and we're viewing Nixon from a (justifiably) tainted perspective that's completely different than the one U.S. voters in the '60s were viewing him from.
 
A

Angry Grimace

Two cannibals are eating a clown. One turns to the other and says "does something taste funny to you?"
It amazes me how democrats continually get upset by the fact that a republican is leading the polling for the republican primaries
 
benjipwns

benjipwns

Banned
Frank the Great said:
Cruz's slime factor should not be understated. The dude looks and talks like a piece of shit who you wouldn't feel comfortable watching your kid for five minutes.
Click to expand...
Yes, yes, we all know he was a DoJ prosecutor and Solicitor General for the State of Texas.

Roland_Gunner said:
The fact that you have to go back nearly 50 years to find a President as unlikable as Cruz is telling. Plus Nixon was running against a Democratic party that had been ripped apart by the Civil Rights act. These Dems are as unified as they've been since the FDR / Truman days.
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The Democratic Party had been ripped apart by Vietnam, the New Left and the race riots more than Civil Rights, something both parties had been pushing for roughly two decades at that point.

The Nixon campaign was scared to death both would be sufficiently under control before November 1968. Humphrey's huge comeback despite having the left-wing of the party against him and George Wallace running as an independent illustrates just how precarious Nixon's position was.

Carter and Bush were both unlikable scolds imo. Nixon was an honest dick. Like Bill was an eventually honest user of his dick. They were both schemers. While Carter and Bush you could probably leave your wallet on the table with.

Personality and performance I haven't really found to be a good correlation. After reading lots of behind the scenes style works, I find W. Bush to be incredibly delightful and Obama to be arrogrant and unwilling to work with those who can overshadow him. (Something he shares with Carter. And something that is not just my opinion, but Harry Reid's. Notably, Republican Congressional leaders have liked the guy much more.)

LBJ was a monstrous personality, the Kennedy White House was run by a cabal of Kennedyites, Eisenhower played nice in public but rough behind the scenes.

Woodrow Wilson was a sociopathic racist with a messianic complex and dictatorial ambitions who cut off the entire world to him and let two people including his wife reign in his stead.

I won't treck further back and only included Wilson because that tyrant needs to be insulted at every chance you get.
 
N

noshten

Member
Latest Ipsos/Reuters Internet poll:

Circus:

Donald Trump 36%
Ben Carson 17%
Jeb Bush 11%
Ted Cruz 10%

o-JEB-BUSH-facebook.jpg
Click to expand...

Actual Candidates:

Hillary Clinton 51%
Bernie Sanders 36%
Martin O'Malley 4%
 
benjipwns

benjipwns

Banned
http://www.nytimes.com/politics/fir...-to-tell-jebs-story-in-15-minute-documentary/
Voters will soon get 15 unfiltered minutes of the Jeb Bush story.

Right to Rise, the “super PAC” supporting Mr. Bush, has produced a 15-minute documentary featuring him and will release it online on Saturday and will later show it on television.

Mike Murphy, the super PAC’s executive director, briefed Bush donors on the video at a breakfast meeting in Washington on Thursday morning before the Republican Jewish Coalition’s annual gathering, at which Mr. Bush spoke. Right to Rise confirmed the group’s plans.

The documentary, which includes interviews with Mr. Bush and his wife, Columba, will talk about Mr. Bush’s record as the governor of Florida, as well as describe his vision for the future, including his plans to defeat the Islamic State and overhaul the federal government.

The plan is to air the spot in 30-minute blocks on the New England Sports Network, which would reach voters in New Hampshire — a crucial state for Mr. Bush, who has seen his poll numbers stagnate in the single digits. Voters in additional early primary states would also be targeted with the video digitally.

The documentary is the brainchild of Mr. Murphy, who produced a similar, 30-minute town hall-style infomercial for Meg Whitman’s unsuccessful bid for governor in California in 2010.
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lol
 
H

HylianTom

Banned
Angry Grimace said:
It amazes me how democrats continually get upset by the fact that a republican is leading the polling for the republican primaries
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I am anything but upset - count me as thoroughly enjoying Trump's performance this far. This cycle has replaced 1996 as my favorite Republican primary season of my adult lifetime, easily.
 
M

Makai

Member
I read your history lessons even if I don't respond to them, Benji. Don't think you're wasting your time.
 
benjipwns

benjipwns

Banned
http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2015/12/evenwel-supreme-court-districting/418437/
Ideally, litigants come to appellate courts with a problem the courts can solve. Sometimes, though, they bring solutions in search of a problem the courts can create. The plaintiffs in Evenwel v. Abbott have gone even further: Their case brings the U.S. Supreme Court a problem and asks the Court to create more problems, with no solution in sight. They want the Court to completely upend the current system of drawing legislative districts—in a way that would give more power to conservative voters and candidates. Beyond that, they are asking the Court to adopt a new constitutional rule with no constitutional provision attached.

Evenwel, which the Court will hear next Tuesday, is a challenge by a group of registered Texas voters to the state’s plan of districts for the state senate. The Texas legislature drew its new districting plan on the assumption that it should try to make each district roughly equal in population to every other. The plaintiffs in Evenwel challenged that plan, however, on the grounds that the legislature should use eligible voters, rather than total population, as the relevant measure. Each district, in other words, should have roughly the same number of eligible voters, not the same number of people.

The change would produce a political earthquake. Eligible voters as a group are older (no children under 18, to begin with), wealthier, and more Republican—and, even more important in Texas, whiter and more Anglo—than the population at large. Many people in the Southwest—both legal residents and undocumented immigrants—are not citizens. Under the proposed Evenwel rule, only those eligible to vote count.

The plaintiffs cite two seminal cases, Baker v. Carr and Reynolds v. Sims, which together are considered (in shorthand) to have established a rule that districting must be done on a “one person one vote” rule. “The Court,” the plaintiffs argue, “need not look beyond these seminal decisions to resolve the question presented in Appellants’ favor.”

Indeed, the appellants hope the Court won’t look beyond them—because the proposed rule is anchored in scattered language from those opinions, not in the constitutional principle they drew from. In Baker, the Court held for the first time that a state’s legislative districts, if drawn unequally, could be challenged under the Equal Protection Clause. In Reynolds, the Court for the first time struck down a state legislative-districting plan because it drew districts unequal in population. Chief Justice Earl Warren wrote for the six justices that “the weight of a citizen's vote cannot be made to depend on where he lives.” For this reason, he continued, “Population is, of necessity, the starting point for consideration and the controlling criterion for judgment in legislative apportionment controversies ... We hold that, as a basic constitutional standard, the Equal Protection Clause requires that the seats in both houses of a bicameral state legislature must be apportioned on a population basis.”
Click to expand...
 
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