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[Frank the Great]

Latest Ipsos/Reuters Internet poll:

Circus:

Donald Trump 36%
Ben Carson 17%
Jeb Bush 11%
Ted Cruz 10%



Actual Candidates:

Hillary Clinton 51%
Bernie Sanders 36%
Martin O'Malley 4%

#O'MalleySurge

 

[benjipwns]

I think my favorite part is that they're airing it back to back on New England Sports Network.

They should spend some of that $100 million to replace the half-time shows with it.

 

[pigeon]

I think my favorite part is that they're airing it back to back on New England Sports Network.

They should spend some of that $100 million to replace the half-time shows with it.

At this point I feel like Jeb isn't running a campaign so much as running a marketing effort to convince his donors he's running a campaign.

 

[Makai]

When does drop out? After NH? Florida?

 

[Makai]

Hillary asked about Bill's rape allegations

How the hell did he survive three allegations? I'm young and this is the first I've heard of this.

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

If Trump motivated the Latino vote to where 89% of Latinos voted for Hillary and there was 70% turnout (and everything else is unchanged), the Dems would win Texas, lmao.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-swing-the-election/

Will it happen? Probably not, but it's kind of interesting to think about.

 

[benjipwns]

Okay, we're officially going off the rails here:
http://www.foxnews.com/us/2015/12/0...fe-radicalized-husband-before-san-bernardino/

Federal investigators believe there is a "very serious" possibility that Tashfeen Malik, one of two shooters who murdered 14 people and wounded 21 others in San Bernardino, Calif. Wednesday, radicalized her husband and co-assailant, county restaurant inspector Syed Farook, Fox News has learned.

Investigators also believe that the couple had planned a second attack after the shooting at a social service center for the disabled when they were killed in a shootout with local authorities approximately two miles away.

Little is known about Malik's background prior to her meeting Farook. However, a U.S. official confirmed to Fox News that the two met and became engaged after Farook traveled to Saudi Arabia in September 2013. Malik, a Pakistani citizen, applied for a K-1 visa at the American embassy in Islamabad in May 2014 and Farook traveled to Saudi Arabia that July to bring her to the U.S. The Saudi Embassy in Washington has confirmed that Farook's 2014 trip lasted nine days.

They were married on Aug. 16, 2014, in nearby Riverside County, Calif. according to their marriage license. Both listed their religion as Muslim.

Investigators believe that on at least one of those trips to Saudi Arabia, one or both members of the couple made contact with suspected Al Qaeda terrorists. The exact nature of that contact was not immediately clear.

...

Law enforcement sources told Fox News late Thursday that there was a "very strong" possibility that Malik functioned as Farook's terror trainer and may have even put together pipe bombs found by authorities at the various crime scenes Wednesday.

...

Wearing black tactical gear and wielding assault rifles, Farook, 28, and Malik, 27, sprayed as many as 75 rounds into a room at the Inland Regional Center, where about 75 of Farook's co-workers had gathered Wednesday morning. Farook had attended the start of the event but slipped out and returned in battle dress.

Four hours later and two miles away, the couple died in a furious gun battle in which they fired 76 rounds, while 23 law officers unleashed about 380, police said.

As part of the complex investigation late Thursday, authorities were trying to piece together a money trail that would have enabled the suspects to acquire over $30,000 worth of guns and explosives. Public records show that Farook made approximately $51,000 per year as an employee of the San Bernardino County Department of Public Health, making it unlikely he could have afforded such an arsenal out of his own pocket. There is no evidence that Malik had a job.

Among the weapons found were three rigged-together pipe bombs at the social service center, each equipped with a remote-control detonating device that apparently malfunctioned; more than 1,600 rounds of ammunition and multiple pipe bombs in the rented SUV where they died; and 12 pipe bombs, tools for making more, and over 3,000 additional rounds of ammunition at a family home in the nearby town of Redlands.

...

Two weeks ago, Farook and one of the co-workers he killed, 52-year-old Nicholas Thalasinos, had a heated conversation about Islam, according to Kuuleme Stephens, a friend of the victim.

Stephens said she happened to call Thalasinos while he was talking with Farook at work. She said Thalasinos told her Farook "doesn't agree that Islam is not a peaceful religion."

 

[benjipwns]

Hillary asked about Bill's rape allegations

How the hell did he survive three allegations? I'm young and this is the first I've heard of this.

You come at the king, you best not miss.

The Paula Jones case is what led to the Lewinsky information and the perjury and obstruction of justice charges.

 

[Yellowtail]

Hillary asked about Bill's rape allegations

How the hell did he survive three allegations? I'm young and this is the first I've heard of this.

It's Bill Clinton. He winks, bites his lip, and does that thumbs up thing and America falls over themselves to forgive him.

 

[HylianTom]

It's Bill Clinton. He winks, bites his lip, and does that thumbs up thing and America falls over themselves to forgive him.

Don't forget the part where Fleetwood Mac starts playing in the background and female voters swoon.

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

Hillary does have some Dick Nixon in her so I can imagine her pushing the SB shooting as "you want to stop Islamic terrorism, stop them from getting guns!" opportunity.

It's also going to be interesting to see if Trump vs. Hillary drives Neocons to the Democratic Party as they fucking hate Trump more than even Muslims.

 

[bodyofanamerican]

Lindsey Graham's speech (edit: yesterday, not this morning) was something else.

Lindsey at the end of his rope is pretty entertaining, and has a habit of making sense in some ways (while also making zero sense in others).

“How many of you believe we lose elections because we’re not hard-ass enough on immigration?”

“I believe we’re losing the Hispanic vote because they think we don’t like them. I believe that it’s not about turning out evangelical Christians, but about repairing the damage done by incredibly hateful rhetoric driving a wall between us and the fastest growing demographic in America, who should be Republicans.”

[...]

“If you wanna ask Hispanics why they’ve gone from 44 percent of support for the Republican party to 27, they’ll tell you “we don’t think you like us.” And given what I’ve heard I would be in their camp, too.

 

[Makai]

If Trump motivated the Latino vote to where 89% of Latinos voted for Hillary and there was 70% turnout (and everything else is unchanged), the Dems would win Texas, lmao.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-swing-the-election/

Will it happen? Probably not, but it's kind of interesting to think about.

Interesting that nothing changes if you ramp up everybody's turnout to 100%. Maybe mandatory voting isn't what it's cracked up to be in presidential elections.

 

[B-Dubs]

Don't forget the part where Fleetwood Mac starts playing in the background and female voters swoon.

Only female voters?

 

[benjipwns]

Lindsey Graham's speech this morning was something else.

Lindsey at the end of his rope is pretty entertaining, and has a habit of making sense in some ways (while also making zero sense in others).

He also went after Cruz and Rubio over abortion.

During a speech at the Republican Jewish Coalition forum in Washington, Mr. Graham laid into his rivals for alienating women and minorities. He took particular issue with Senator Ted Cruz, who earlier had evaded a question about why voters who support abortion rights might consider supporting someone like him.

“If you’re going to tell a woman who has been raped she has to carry the child of the rapist, you’re losing most Americans,” Mr. Graham said, referring to Mr. Cruz’s view that abortion should be illegal in all cases. “If the nominee of the Republican Party will not allow for an exception for rape and incest, they will not win. Ted Cruz doesn’t have an exception for rape and incest.”

Senator Marco Rubio, another Republican candidate doing well in the polls, also does not support exceptions for rape and incest, and the issue remains contentious among people who oppose abortion generally. Mr. Graham considers himself “pro-life” but said on Thursday that issues such as national security and taxes should be the focus of Republicans if they want to retake the White House.

 

[Teggy]

The San Bernardino shooter's family has picked [URL="http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/david-chesley-sandy-hook-truther]a really bad lawyer[/URL].

Starting out with a little Sandy Hook trutherism and saying the wife was not involved despite her being dressed up and carrying a rifle. Oh boy, this is not helping.

 

[Retromelon]

Hillary does have some Dick Nixon in her

Surely you could've phrased this differently

 

[HylianTom]

Only female voters?

True, some men as well. I have strong memories of CNN's Bill Schneider and Gallup's Frank Newport in the 1990s pushing the "Bill Clinton's gender gap" storyline.

 

[benjipwns]

Starting out with a little Sandy Hook trutherism and saying the wife was not involved despite her being dressed up and carrying a rifle.

And firing out of their SUV window at police with said rifle.

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

Hmm, if you make the reasonable assumptions for Trump vs. Hillary of (basically, just assuming that Trump fires up the uneducated racists while scaring away educated conservatives from voting and motivates Hispanics):

Group: Dem voting/Turnout
College white: 50/68
Non-college white: 33/64
Black: 93/66
Latino: 88/61
Asian and other: 67/49

Then Hillary wins 396 to 142.

Surely you could've phrased this differently

Nope, this was the perfect way to phrase it.

 

[RustyNails]

I read your history lessons even if I don't respond to them, Benji. Don't think you're wasting your time.

Me too. Benji your tidbits about political history are always educational and fun.

 

[benjipwns]

Well, in that case, since I just thought of it, the 15-30 minute ad thing is actually how many candidates campaigns were advertised in the pre-cable proliferation days when you could buy time on just ABC, CBS or NBC to snag a large audience.

The most famous example probably being Reagan's "A Time For Choosing" speech in support of Goldwater because it almost alone propelled his political career, first to Governor of California two years later, and then a serious candidate for the Presidency within a decade, and eventually the Presidency itself.

Here's the whole thing on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qXBswFfh6AY

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

The Party Decides has a terrible theoretical background for why endorsements matter.

Explanations given for why "reg votes endorsement controls" gives a strongly positive effect for endorsements:

1. Gives the candidate needed infrastructure.
2. Most voters don't care about presidential primaries and have no information or interest in the primaries and therefore just vote for the people that their government officials think is good.

They admit that they can't observe either factor so this foundation is not really testable... Also, I can't see #2 relating to this race in the slightest as Republican primary voters are highly interested and the candidates are pretty well known at this point. The book also admits that John McCain should not have won the primary if The Party Deciding mattered over all else and that Howard Dean almost winning in 2004 was another near-miss against the theory.

The book has good history and good political science research and good statistical analysis though. It's just not detailed enough of a theory for people to base their entire prediction regarding the primaries on.

 

[HylianTom]

Well, in that case, since I just thought of it, the 15-30 minute ad thing is actually how many candidates campaigns were advertised in the pre-cable proliferation days when you could buy time on just ABC, CBS or NBC to snag a large audience.

The most famous example probably being Reagan's "A Time For Choosing" speech in support of Goldwater because it almost alone propelled his political career, first to Governor of California two years later, and then a serious candidate for the Presidency within a decade, and eventually the Presidency itself.

Here's the whole thing on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qXBswFfh6AY

I still love the idea of political infomercials, even in this age of atomized audiences, especially as a closing argument for a campaign. Opponents typically don't have enough time to respond if there's anything hinky within the content, so there's not much downside to them as long as the content is kept pretty safe/wide-appealing (read: poll-tested).

And I remember loving Perot's charts, even though he didn't have my vote. Holy Nayru, the charts! So many voters are visual learners; you'd think that candidates/campaigns/conventions would include more visual aids with their speeches and events.

Spoiler

(added bonus: charts = comedy opportunity!)

 

[Third Strike]

If Trump motivated the Latino vote to where 89% of Latinos voted for Hillary and there was 70% turnout (and everything else is unchanged), the Dems would win Texas, lmao.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-swing-the-election/

Will it happen? Probably not, but it's kind of interesting to think about.

If you could somehow match the turnout of Democratic-voting Latinos with African Americans, then TX and AZ come into play, according to your link. Interestingly enough, AK comes into play for Dems if the Asian demographic is turned up, which is surprising to me. I also liked how NC became blue if you only drive up the Hispanic vote to 78 percent from 71 percent. NC could be this cycle's VA if Trump is the nominee.

 

[Deleted member 231381]

Hmm, if you make the reasonable assumptions for Trump vs. Hillary of (basically, just assuming that Trump fires up the uneducated racists while scaring away educated conservatives from voting and motivates Hispanics):

Group: Dem voting/Turnout
College white: 50/68
Non-college white: 33/64
Black: 93/66
Latino: 88/61
Asian and other: 67/49

Then Hillary wins 396 to 142.



Nope, this was the perfect way to phrase it.

Blacks aren't going to have a higher turnout than under Obama. Latinos aren't going to see 13(!) percentage point rise in turnout. The proportion of Republicans who will be scared away from a man who is openly rather than tacitly racist is pretty small, because if they were worried about these things they would already have stopped voting Republican. Your assumptions are all pretty poor, to be honest.

 

[PantherLotus]

1. I don't have a fully-formed theory of this election yet, but I have a working hypothesis: It doesn't matter what the GOP does at this point, because they're going to lose whether they go with the most vile and unprepared person in American presidential history or the losers that can't beat him.

2. Even if Cruz, Rubio, Jeb!, any of them could come back, the lack of enthusiasm around them and their flaws (relative!) being exposed (see: Rubio's lack of a NH ground game) will bear this out. Nobody can beat Hillary.

3. Holy shit we have a long ways to go and that^^ isn't going to change for a freaking year.

4. Graham's comments about the Latin vote makes me wonder. Clearly the GOP is being wagged by the evangelical base, and I'm not sure they have a choice (even though it's a mess of their own making).

What I wonder is what the left would look like if it were ruled by a similarly small portion of its constituency. Like, imagine Democrats deciding everything based on what Teachers Unions wanted. Or BLM. Or everything based on the Union Vote (there could be worse). Or everything based on global warming fears (ok I'm starting to talk myself into letting the base wag the left as well). Or the 99%ers (wait, why isn't the left doing this?).

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

Blacks aren't going to have a higher turnout than under Obama. Latinos aren't going to see 13(!) percentage point rise in turnout. The proportion of Republicans who will be scared away from a man who is openly rather than tacitly racist is pretty small, because if they were worried about these things they would already have stopped voting Republican. Your assumptions are all pretty poor, to be honest.

I left the black vote and turnout completely unchanged from the 538 tool's original settings, I think there would be just as much turnout from black people for Trump vs. Hillary as for Obama vs. Romney since black voters really like Hillary and black people REALLY hate Trump.

 

[Deleted member 231381]

I left the black vote and turnout completely unchanged from the 538 tool's original settings.

I meant that you won't see the black vote be as high as it was under Obama. The most likely result is a reversion to ~61% or so, the midway between pre-Obama and Obama voting.

 

[benjipwns]

And I remember loving Perot's charts, even though he didn't have my vote. Holy Nayru, the charts! So many voters are visual learners; you'd think that candidates/campaigns/conventions would include more visual aids with their speeches and events.

Spoiler

(added bonus: charts = comedy opportunity!)

 

[Veritigo_X]

CNN's ad for Wrestlemania 2015 the Dec. 15th GOP debate: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gQaO5ZCwryI

 

[And_Gignac]

Latest Ipsos/Reuters Internet poll:

Circus:

Donald Trump 36%
Ben Carson 17%
Jeb Bush 11%
Ted Cruz 10%



Actual Candidates:

Hillary Clinton 51%
Bernie Sanders 36%
Martin O'Malley 4%

wooo Sanders hype train stays functional. I cant wait for Iowa. There will be tears, either way.

 

[Mrs. Manky]

I left the black vote and turnout completely unchanged from the 538 tool's original settings, I think there would be just as much turnout from black people for Trump vs. Hillary as for Obama vs. Romney since black voters really like Hillary and black people REALLY hate Trump.

I suspect the black turnout for Hillary to be a little lower than you think. The Clintons talked some serious trash about Obama in 2008, and people don't forget. There are also younger people from or allied with the BLM crew who are not enthusiastic about any of the candidates, or who might be Killer Mike style Bernie stans.

 

[Frank the Great]

Obama will be campaigning for Hillary in the black community like a champ. I wouldn't worry too much about black voter enthusiasm.

Besides, Hillary will pull more white voters for obvious reasons so even if there is a drop off in black turnout it may very well be offset.

 

[RustyNails]

CNN's ad for Wrestlemania 2015 the Dec. 15th GOP debate: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gQaO5ZCwryI

Cringe bad

 

[Third Strike]

Obama will be campaigning for Hillary in the black community like a champ. I wouldn't worry too much about black voter enthusiasm.

Besides, Hillary will pull more white voters for obvious reasons so even if there is a drop off in black turnout it may very well be offset.

Yup. Plus, add a slight bump in turnout among Hispanics and Asians, and Clinton could do as well, if not better than Obama did in 2012.

 

[benjipwns]

Obama will be campaigning for Hillary in the black community like a champ.

I don't know...

 

[Cheebo]

I don't know...

Of course he will be, why wouldnt he?

 

[ivysaur12]

Here's the Christmas card for Michele Fiore, who is mulling a House run in Nevada's 3rd (Joe Heck's district, which has an EVEN Cook PVI):

 

[benjipwns]

They look photoshopped in. Or were in front of a green screen.

 

[Basileus777]

Here's the Christmas card for Michele Fiore, who is mulling a House run in Nevada's 3rd (Joe Heck's district, which has an EVEN Cook PVI):

Why don't the babies have guns yet?

 

[Thequietone]

Here's the Christmas card for Michele Fiore, who is mulling a House run in Nevada's 3rd (Joe Heck's district, which has an EVEN Cook PVI):

Babies don't have guns. RINO's confirmed.

 

[Poodlestrike]

They look photoshopped in. Or were in front of a green screen.

They definitely were.

Poorly.

 

[benjipwns]

Why don't the babies have guns yet?

Babies are well known liberals, they basically live on welfare handouts, never working for a living.

 

[User 406]

Interesting that nothing changes if you ramp up everybody's turnout to 100%. Maybe mandatory voting isn't what it's cracked up to be in presidential elections.

Sure, if everyone who isn't currently voting breaks down in precisely the same ways as those who do.

Thing is, we don't know if that's true because they don't vote.

 

[benjipwns]

Sure, if everyone who isn't currently voting breaks down in precisely the same ways as those who do.

Thing is, we don't know if that's true because they don't vote.

For example, I don't vote.

 

[Mrs. Manky]

They look photoshopped in. Or were in front of a green screen.

Sure, but those guns weren't photoshopped in.

Today I learned that the Walther p22 is the perfect gun for an elementary school aged boy. Great for protection, great for pretending he's James Bond.

 

[Makai]

CNN's ad for Wrestlemania 2015 the Dec. 15th GOP debate: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gQaO5ZCwryI

This weirds me out and I'm not sure why.

 

[Deleted member 231381]

This weirds me out and I'm not sure why.

Because they included Bush as being relevant? Weirded me out, too.

 

[Makai]

Everyone looks like the monster in a Bela Legousi movie.