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PoliGAF 2015-2016 |OT3| If someone named PhoenixDark leaves your party, call the cops

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B-Dubs

No Scrubs
Wait, what??????????

CZ1_oUWVAAAfwqp.png:large

Is Bernie's team drunk? By agreeing to this debate they change the rules DWS put forth and going forward anyone can set up a debate and they'd all have to go or be shamed, there's no reason for this shit. It really feels like he doesn't want a debate in between IA and NH.

Bernie's campaign/supporters have decided that the unsactioned debate is a Clinton conspiracy (in league with the DNC) and so now they are insisting that they will only participate in DNC debates, despite their hatred of the DNC, with specific conditions

wish I was kidding: http://www.dailykos.com/story/2016/...aster-Stroke-in-asking-for-SANCTIONED-debates

Seriously, is everyone drunk?
 

NeoXChaos

Member
Is Bernie's team drunk? By agreeing to this debate they change the rules DWS put forth and going forward anyone can set up a debate and they'd all have to go or be shamed, there's no reason for this shit. It really feels like he doesn't want a debate in between IA and NH.

He's leading in NH by 20+. He does not want a debate to jeopardize that especially if he loses IA.
 
It's a weird release to put out, as the Clinton campaign has already called this bluff so to speak and said they're ready and willing to discuss scheduling debates in April and May.

A segue into turnout and registration, I think someone looked at it before already but thought I'd take a gander at IA voter registration. I may be reading it wrong.

Between Oct and the start of Jan 2008, Dem registrations increased by just over 7.5K and independent registrations by about 8.5K. Obama effect?
Between Oct and Jan this cycle, Dem registrations are basically flat (-39) and independents up by 8.8K. Sanders effect? Trump effect?

(And yeah, I'm aware you can register on the day.)


There's breakdown by county, but I don't know whether one is meant to register where they intend to vote, or based on their residential address etc. etc. so I didn't know if it was worth looking at specific counties e.g. those around university towns.

For what it's worth, Bernie's video on caucusing in Iowa encourages registering on the day.
 

Suikoguy

I whinny my fervor lowly, for his length is not as great as those of the Hylian war stallions
Bernie's campaign/supporters have decided that the unsactioned debate is a Clinton conspiracy (in league with the DNC) and so now they are insisting that they will only participate in DNC debates, despite their hatred of the DNC, with specific conditions

wish I was kidding: http://www.dailykos.com/story/2016/...aster-Stroke-in-asking-for-SANCTIONED-debates

Yeah, that makes no sense. If all three candidates showed up to an unsanctioned debate, it suddenly becomes sanctioned since they have no other choice.
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
Yeah, that makes no sense. If all three candidates showed up to an unsanctioned debate, it suddenly becomes sanctioned since they have no other choice.

Hell if two out of three show up it's sanctioned! They're not going to prevent a majority of the candidates from going to a debate!

they should. You cant have a debate with just 1 person if Hillary and O'Malley are disqualified from the last two.

Exactly!
 

pigeon

Banned
So it's already been commented on, and I may be guilty of it myself at times #hypocrite, but could we cool it a bit on the "omg this person in this other thread is so dumb I must post it here where I can call them dumb and they won't see it" posts.

The degree of animosity is really reaching stupid levels.

I agree (I mean, you're a mod and whatever, but even if this were a democracy I would support this policy). It is pretty gross for us to be brigading the other political threads.

Generally I am bummed about the internecine warfare between leftists on GAF. I guess this is what happens given the falloff in right-wing posters since nobody wants to support Trump except for, you know, people who support Trump.
 
Random interjection! The weather for next Tuesday in Iowa looks... less than ideal. It's already looked this way on the computer models for days, but at just 5 days now the chances are increasing that there will be a heavy snow event taking place some time between early Tuesday and early Wednesday. Rural winter driving is not just inconvenient, but outright dangerous.

It's still too early for exact timing, but this could be 10"+ across a wide swath of the state, possibly peaking in the afternoon and evening. Weather is an oft-forgotten intangible for Iowa. In theory it favors Clinton and other establishment candidates... but with all the rules thrown out the window for the GOP race I honestly cannot predict what impact it might have there.

Here's how one of the more respected models is forecasting the snow in the 24 hours leading up to caucus time:
 
For what it's worth, Bernie's video on caucusing in Iowa encourages registering on the day.
Okay, from a quick look I'm assuming this fits in with the plan of busing people back to their home counties, where they'd apparently have to re-register anyway. The logistics of this seem like a bit of a nightmare, but it will be interesting to see how it turns out.
 

Iolo

Member
It's a weird release to put out, as the Clinton campaign has already called this bluff so to speak and said they're ready and willing to discuss scheduling debates in April and May.

A segue into turnout and registration, I think someone looked at it before already but thought I'd take a gander at IA voter registration. I may be reading it wrong.

Between Oct and the start of Jan 2008, Dem registrations increased by just over 7.5K and independent registrations by about 8.5K. Obama effect?
Between Oct and Jan this cycle, Dem registrations are basically flat (-39) and independents up by 8.8K. Sanders effect? Trump effect?

(And yeah, I'm aware you can register on the day.)

There's breakdown by county, but I don't know whether one is meant to register where they intend to vote, or based on their residential address etc. etc. so I didn't know if it was worth looking at specific counties e.g. those around university towns.

Earlier today I saw some figures from the registration office showing dems had increased by about 2k.

Nate Cohn did an article earlier today talking about new registrations compared to earlier years. As you notes though, same day reg is easy.

Nate Cohn said:
Yet the pace of new voter registration in the Iowa caucuses is reason to question whether a huge turnout is really in the offing.

Most striking is the relatively slow increase in the number of voters registered as Democrats, far slower than it was ahead of the 2008 caucus. The increase for Democrats this year looks much more like the increase for Republicans ahead of the 2012 contest.

The increase in registration among Republicans in recent months looks much healthier in comparison, and could be consistent with a higher turnout than in recent cycles.

http://mobile.nytimes.com/2016/01/2...owa-voter-registration-doesnt-suggest-it.html

Also Nate posted an update on Twitter with figures up until yesterday:

CZ0dqjAWIAAFXrs
 

Suikoguy

I whinny my fervor lowly, for his length is not as great as those of the Hylian war stallions
I agree (I mean, you're a mod and whatever, but even if this were a democracy I would support this policy). It is pretty gross for us to be brigading the other political threads.

Generally I am bummed about the internecine warfare between leftists on GAF. I guess this is what happens given the falloff in right-wing posters since nobody wants to support Trump except for, you know, people who support Trump.

Regarding the first point, yeah it is pretty shitty. I keep this thread separate from other ones discussion wise.

Regarding the bolded; I'm laughing my ass off at this, since it's so damn true.
 
Not ignoring the bit about NH, but seems y'all missing the optics. If bernie shows up to an unscheduled debate along with the other guys, that's just the candidates going around the DNC. If, however, Bernie gets the DNC to agree to the other debates, he can then push the narrative that he forced the DNC to change its posture. But really, it was you guys! We couldn't have done it without your support!

Hills ain't (explicitly) the target, the DNC is.

plus something something prolly more coverage or whatever something if you running a podunk campaign, having shit set in stone matters etc

the narrative that he scared of losing NH seems ahm...incoherent, given that he's also for a feb 4 NH debate.
 
Random interjection! The weather for next Tuesday in Iowa looks... less than ideal. It's already looked this way on the computer models for days, but at just 5 days now the chances are increasing that there will be a heavy snow event taking place some time between early Tuesday and early Wednesday. Rural winter driving is not just inconvenient, but outright dangerous.

It's still too early for exact timing, but this could be 10"+ across a wide swath of the state, possibly peaking in the afternoon and evening. Weather is an oft-forgotten intangible for Iowa. In theory it favors Clinton and other establishment candidates... but with all the rules thrown out the window for the GOP race I honestly cannot predict what impact it might have there.

Here's how one of the more respected models is forecasting the snow in the 24 hours leading up to caucus time:
This was bought up earlier in the day, I'll just quote myself:
fucking establishment weather
 
Random interjection! The weather for next Tuesday in Iowa looks... less than ideal. It's already looked this way on the computer models for days, but at just 5 days now the chances are increasing that there will be a heavy snow event taking place some time between early Tuesday and early Wednesday. Rural winter driving is not just inconvenient, but outright dangerous.

It's still too early for exact timing, but this could be 10"+ across a wide swath of the state, possibly peaking in the afternoon and evening. Weather is an oft-forgotten intangible for Iowa. In theory it favors Clinton and other establishment candidates... but with all the rules thrown out the window for the GOP race I honestly cannot predict what impact it might have there.

Here's how one of the more respected models is forecasting the snow in the 24 hours leading up to caucus time:
Caucus is on Monday brah.
 

Overlee

Member
Quoting so I look this up when I'm sober.

Basically he's had decades of evidence showing that economic, social and political development are linked. That virtually all highly developed societies are experiencing a shift from industrial-age values such as economic and physical security or a strong work ethic to "postmodern" values emphasizing quality of life or self- expression

Basically we've all been exposed to such wealth and information (historically speaking) that we know we should be working towards a society that uses less but provides each other more... art, science, health, etc.

Of course we have problems thinking this way during times of economic downturn and uncertainty. But that's more a problem with capitalism than the human spirit.
 

Iolo

Member
Also big caveat from Nate's article:

Most of the increase in turnout for Mr. Obama came from voters who were already registered but hadn’t previously participated in the caucus, not from people who had not yet registered to vote.

On the other hand, Democrats in the 18-24 range today would not have been old enough to register in the last contested election, so one might expect them to have to register.

Therefore in my opinion Sanders should hope:

- same day registration will be very high; or
- a large number of disaffected people over 24 will come out; or
- unaffiliated voters have already registered and will switch to Democrat on Monday; or
- the establishment is suppressing the real numbers to dishearten Bernie supporters
 

NeoXChaos

Member
Therefore in my opinion Hillary should hope:

-same day registration will be very low; or
- a small number of disaffected people under 30 will come out; or
- unaffiliated voters have already registered and will switch to Republican on Monday;
 

Teggy

Member
So many of you guys and gals have racist and bigoted parents. Maybe not very overtly, but to some extent.

I'm glad y'all worked around that. Geez. I'm so thankful I didn't grow up in such a household. I have a really well off cousin who doesn't like Obama because their taxes were raised, but that's a rational position. Race plays no factor.

Oh yeah, my parents are full on diet racist but it's something that came on well after I left home. Somehow they fell into the Fox News bubble and there's no getting them out. Welfare fraud, voter fraud, etc. They especially love Dinesh D'Souza - my mom literally said during our last phone call that she thinks Obama doesn't love America. SMH.

It's just not worth trying to convince them, though, because it just creates a loud argument with no positive outcome. They are in their 70's, if they are going to come to this realization they're going to have to do it themselves. At least they don't want to vote for Trump (but they will if he winds up the nominee).
 

Iolo

Member
Therefore in my opinion Hillary should hope:

-same day registration will be very low; or
- a small number of disaffected people under 30 will come out; or
- unaffiliated voters have already registered and will switch to Republican on Monday;

don't plagiarize me bro, who do you think you are, Joe Biden?
 
Therefore in my opinion Hillary should hope:

-same day registration will be very low; or
- a small number of disaffected people under 30 will come out; or
- unaffiliated voters have already registered and will switch to Republican on Monday;

- the weather gets ridiculous earlier on Monday than forecasted
 
I wonder who a snowstorm would hurt more. When it comes to the enthusiastic base vs the reliable base, which one would stay home if the roads are slick? On one hand, younger voters are probably more willing to take risks like driving in snow. On the other, older folks are pretty damn dedicated to voting.
 

ivysaur12

Banned
I wonder who a snowstorm would hurt more. When it comes to the enthusiastic base vs the reliable base, which one would stay home if the roads are slick? On one hand, younger voters are probably more willing to take risks like driving in snow. On the other, older folks are pretty damn dedicated to voting.

I would say people who have voted in the past are probably more likely to vote no matter what, and bad conditions would depress the turnout from those who have never voted before. I'd like to see a study on it though.
 

NeoXChaos

Member
What redistricting also did, though, was allow Republicans to draw very favorable state legislative maps. Those maps will also make it hard for Democrats to regain control of those chambers and, by extension, overhaul the existing GOP-friendly maps at both the state and congressional levels.

Nobody is saying Democrats can't win back the U.S. House in the coming years, but most everyone agrees that it's significantly more difficult today than it was before and that Democrats need a sizable wave to do it. In fact, they would need to win as much as 55 percent of the popular vote, according to the Cook Political Report's David Wasserman, something neither party was able to achieve even in the wave elections of 2006, 2008 and 2010.

So, Democrats have little control, which makes it harder for them to gain control. And until they gain back control -- at least long enough to draw new maps -- it will be difficult for them to get anything resembling consistent majorities.

The numbers tell the story.

We need 55%. We can do it. Right Aaron?

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...ossible/?postshare=3981454031738050&tid=ss_tw
 

pigeon

Banned
Reading back over the last few pages I'm also starting to worry that adam's posts in this thread are a cry for help.

<3
 
The only times you've mentioned leaving your house are to get more booze...

I think you might have a problem man.

Hahah, naw. I actually drink very sparingly. Usually just debate nights. I leave the house plenty, but it's for boring things like getting stuff toegher for my new job, picking up things from the UPS Store, going to the grocery store and doing stupid things with a few friends.

I do tend to be a homebody, though. Going to be worse since I'll be telecommuting 4 days a week.
 
That's frank.
But he's not wrong though. Adam.. Stop hanging with the cats and go find some love friend. We can all pitch in to get you off the peanut butter vodka and get you on a dating site.

#TakeAdamtoMcDonald's

Edit- also seeing them start to body Cruz at the debate is entertaining as hell. Shows another positive with Trump not being there
 
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