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PoliGAF 2015-2016 |OT3| If someone named PhoenixDark leaves your party, call the cops
- Thread starter Diablos
- Start date
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"we can now project that Hillary Clinton will win the IA Caucuses"
"we can now project that Donald Trump will win the IA Caucuses"
Todd: Republicans can start panicking. Hillary can breath easy tonight.
Ignatz Mouse
Banned
I want Hillary to get the nom, but I'm voting Bernie to send a similar message.
User 463088
Banned
Expectations are important in Iowa. I think Bernie's campaign has failed to play the expectations game correctly, though. Hillary's been ahead for months in Iowa. By most reports, her ground game is better than his. Her support is more widely spread out. However, he's been trumping how great he's doing in the polls. Which, it makes sense. He needed to try to control the narrative. Had he played it close to his chest though, said the polls are the polls, and then Hillary ends up wining it wouldn't have really hurt him. Now, though, the expectation is in that he's surging in the polls, that he's got a great chance. (Which he does.) If Hillary wins now, she can claim momentum. She fought back. It was competitive and she managed to show she is not inevitable but stronger.
Damn, this is what I miss when I don't have a TV with CNN in the cubicle. Damn my boss for demanding we do work at work!
That sounds a bit like my own story, minus the marriage and brain cancer. I'd be in debt up to my eyeballs if it weren't for the ACA, I imagine there are thousands of stories like that.
BLOOMBERG!!!
User 463088
Banned
I'ma be chill as fuck, though. Play it cool. I'm totally good at that. /s
In that case, he sounds great. Go get that roll in ze hay!
Like I said, I will not compromise my Christianity.
From your lips to god's ears.
I totally respect that.
There was also a story in the DMR about a woman Hillary spoke with about how she lost her home because of cuts that affected her as a widowed woman. The woman was very impressed by Hillary. When people actually see her, see her speak, see her interact with people....they typically like her.
Aaron Strife
Banned
I wish Biden ran this time, although I don't think his heart would have really been in it. But I would have supported the shit out of him and would probably be actively rooting for him to win the primary. My support for Bernie is pretty similar to what you described.
My journey in 08 was something like "anyone but Hillary" (driven entirely by "lol she would get her period and start WW3 mirite" high school immaturity) -> Edwards (for like two days lol, then he dropped out) -> Obama -> "I guess McCain would be alright" (picks Palin) -> nope, Obama. I mean I was 17 by election day so none of it really mattered.
You did at least verify he wasn't voting for Trump if Hillary is the dem nominee right?
Macho Madness
Member
Clinton needs to worry about indictment. Not some campaign she has no chance of winning.
and miss the first black president followed by the first woman president? no way.
You should totally compromise your Christianity given the chance, Jesus would understand.
The whole Beau thing happened at the worst time for that, it also took a huge player out of future elections if Obama was to be believed.
Biden, at the very least, would have given the media the horse race they wanted and would probably have KOed a couple of GOP candidates while he was at it. This whole thing would have been a lot more fun with him.
That was the year I was 18. I was still trying to figure it out but was leaning between Obama and Hillary, with the thought that McCain wouldn't be too bad (until Palin lol).
User 463088
Banned
Yes. He's voting for Jill Stein.
Kidding. Hillary all the way.
I will violate the hell out of my faux Christianity if given the chance. Hahaha.
I remember when 2000 John McCain was reasonable. 2000 John McCain didn't seem as wackado as 2008 John McCain. They should have left him the hell alone and let him pick Lieberman. He was going to lose regardless.
That is a hit it and quit it situation right there, gurl.
A really cute guy I know is feeling the bern. I always hate discussing politics with gay men. Always afraid one of then is going to be a Republican. And not a economic Republican, but Ted Cruz/Donald Trump republican.
I wonder if 18 year old me would believe 23 year old me about the state of politics in 2016 if I'd believe me
And_Gignac
Member
Is she over?
Aaron Strife
Banned
I would see Biden as a third Obama term, which I would take over any new candidate tbh. Just wish there was some way to win a stable Congressional majority, even if Democrats scraped one together in November it would probably be a pretty bare one and be lost in 2018.
Just gimme some of that student loan reform
I don't understand people saying this is a non-story.
I mean it totally is... for now only though right? Doesn't this increase the odds that she actually sent one of these with that classification at the time?
I totally get that... I dunno I guess reading stuff like this worries me.
AnotherNils
Member
I'll be honest, I'm pretty informed as far as politics goes and I can't keep track of the Hillary email shit. More importantly, I don't see how the average voter could parse it. It won't kill her, but it certainly does the job of putting the stink of wrongdoing on her.
Probably, but...
There is that.
Based on the sheer volume of email and the convoluted process of classifying info - I won't be surprised if she ended up sending / forwarding some kind of email that was classified. That said; until she gets indicted, it's not newsworthy to me.
If she did, that is a completely separate issue from this whole private email server thing. It would mean the state dept was flouting the rules entirely. If Hillary were not using her private email server for these emails, she would have been using the state departments non-classified email system -- just like most of the other recipients/senders of these emails.
Properly classified documents were sent over another channel entirely
Which is the whole point.
Honestly, that would surprise me. It just seems like such a careless thing for someone so details oriented. I also imagine she had a pretty good idea of what the state department was classifying and what it was not.
It's not sexy enough for the average voter. There's no smoking gun or glove-don't-fit or blue dress for the press to wave around. After a while, it becomes muddied to the point where folks who aren't invested have their eyes glaze over.
But when it's your best shot to take her down, that's what you go with.
Agree 1000% with the bolded. The volume combined with the scrutiny, plus this new story, does make me nervous though. I think calling it a total non-starter is somewhat burying your head in the sand, and that's not to imply bad intent on her part or any malfeasance.
It's the same emails as the inspector general for intelligence agencies sent a message to / leaked to Congress about last week. One of the emails "focused on a forwarded news article about the classified U.S. drone program run by the CIA". State reclassified these at their behest just now.
The crux of this is that some or all of this info may be in public domain or in news articles, but intelligence agencies (or Republicans) don't give a crap about that distinction, things are classified and that's it. The FBI, however, will take note of this distinction.
Not a good look before Iowa regardless.
The crux of this is that some or all of this info may be in public domain or in news articles, but intelligence agencies (or Republicans) don't give a crap about that distinction, things are classified and that's it. The FBI, however, will take note of this distinction.
Not a good look before Iowa regardless.
Coriolanus
Banned
Good thing bernie already dismissed email talk during debates.
Gods, that man is so presidential! *swoon*
(but for reals, that narrative is mad stale and prolly won't affect anything at all unless something horrendously flagrant comes up, especially when her direct competition at the moment already said f dat s)
Gods, that man is so presidential! *swoon*
(but for reals, that narrative is mad stale and prolly won't affect anything at all unless something horrendously flagrant comes up, especially when her direct competition at the moment already said f dat s)
He's been going negative in the last week. It could make a reappearance.
It's nothing against her - it's an indictment of how ridiculous the classification process is. There are blank pages in emails that are considered classified. As for knowing what was being classified or not - the funniest subplot to this entire thing is that it is becoming apparent that even the State Department / Feds in general didn't know what was actually classified and what wasn't, and are just now figuring it out.
Indeed. Even if she has stuff on the e-mail server, I don't particularly care. It's not like the secure servers were much safer.
AnotherNils
Member
I know, I guess my point was for those people who keep wondering why this keeps coming back: Because it tricks some people (including myself) every time.
Maybe it's help if someone did a better than box breakdown thread on the subject.
Bam Bam Baklava
Member
Not that different from Benghazi. You keep bringing it up until people are so confused that it just reminds them of some negative sentiment around your opponent.
RustyNails
Member
Pollgaf, when is DMR and selzer gonna drop?
AnotherNils
Member
The private email server is the smoke. They're portraying the classified emails as the fire.
That's a partisan rationalization. If it were Rumsfeld in this situation 10 years ago, no liberals would be cutting him slack because the government servers "aren't much safer."
The bottom line is if Hillary didn't do this dumb shit we wouldn't have to hear about it. Unforced error and all that.
And_Gignac
Member
5,45pm tomorrow (Iowa time).
So about 7 EST. Well, if that's in line with everything else we pretty much know how it'll end.
Ignatz Mouse
Banned
If there's any doubt by the time IL primaries come around, I'll vote Hillary. But I expect it to be just about over by then.
congrats, man. thats probably the best part of campaigns. sorry to get all greg cote back in my day, but back in my day during the obama campaigns it was a lot of fun to meet various women... high stress + lack of sleep = why not? ahh...those were the days..
RustyNails
Member
The madness will finally, finally be over. It's like finding out that you got the job after a hard interview. And got promoted on the spot. Then got free company paid vacation to hawaii.
Cant wait until monday night.
Nah; that's not partisan rationalization.
That's in response to this:
http://www.cnn.com/2015/07/09/politics/office-of-personnel-management-data-breach-20-million/
We KNOW the government servers aren't much safer.
AnotherNils
Member
Maybe. Benghazi always came off as not-picking because they misidentified the cause. I don't think the stand down thing would sway any impartial voter because I don't why Obama would want them to stand down.
Anyway the movie failing makes me think the matter is dead. If it couldn't sink Obama then it doesn't matter now.
Ignatz Mouse
Banned
Nice photo they run with that. And people complain about Bernie "hit pieces."
Weather update: maybe not so Establishment after all
No need to throw the weather under the bus bringing the college kids back to their home precincts.
http://www.desmoinesregister.com/st...ucus-storm-could-drop-6-inches-snow/79504266/
No need to throw the weather under the bus bringing the college kids back to their home precincts.
http://www.desmoinesregister.com/st...ucus-storm-could-drop-6-inches-snow/79504266/
AnotherNils
Member
Heh, You're like a human drudge siren. You appear without fail at a whiff of bad news.
VendettaRed07
Member
Yeah. This is ultimately how I feel. I don't think anything will come of this but how stupid is it that this is even an issue in the first place.
SenorArdilla
Member
Whoa! What's this about Hillary going to jail?
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