In the Democratic race, according to the DMR survey, Obama is polling at 32 percent, Clinton at 25, and Edwards at 24. (None of the remaining candidates received more than 6 percent.) Interestingly, Obama's lead is due to support from three groups that don't traditionally turn out in huge numbers: first-time caucus-goers, independents, and young voters.
According to the poll, Obama is receiving 72 percent of his support from first-time caucus-goers, compared to just more than 58 and 55 percent for Clinton and Edwards respectively. Nearly 40 percent of independents caucusing in the Democratic race intend to do so for Obama, compared to less than 25 for Clinton and Edwards. And 56 percent of caucus-goers under 35 are supporting Obama, compared to around 15 percent each for Clinton and Edwards.
Iowa polls traditionally discount the three groups composing much of Obama's support because of their unreliability on election day, but the DMR poll is predicting they will turn out in droves. In the newspaper's Democratic sample, 60 percent of likely caucus-goers were first-timers and 40 percent were independents.
Obama's lead may have to do with the fact that Democratic voters are prioritizing change over experience. Thirty percent of respondents said a candidate's ability to affect change was most important, while 27 percent considered a candidate's ability to unify the country as the top priority. Only 18 percent of likely caucus-goers said that having the experience and competence to lead is the most important presidential quality.
