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[Maledict]

And there it is.

CLINTON 45
Sanders 42
O'Malley 3
Jan. 26-29

The important thing is - what were the results of the last day? Was there a trend? Last time around Santorum wasn't in first place, but if you looked at the daily breakdowns he was gaining everyday.

Not sure if that could be possible here though, as those look like the same numbers we've had a few times before from DMR.

 

[Hopfrog]

Carson in "sleepy-time" mode still beating Jeb! by 8 points.

 

[kingkitty]

trump will not be stumped

it's really happening

a brave new world

 

[Butts-a-plenty]

What were the 2008 results...

 

[RustyNails]

MYSA MYSA MYSA MYSA MYSA MYSA MYSA

 

[Deleted member 231381]

I think Selzer will have relatively high undecideds, around 11%. O'Malley at 4%. Clinton 43, Sanders 42.

Either way, Sanders needs like a +3 lead for a win, so not optimistic.

Not bad. Was 2 off Clinton, 1 off O'Malley and Undecided, correct on Sanders.

 

[Basileus777]

Huh, they're saying establishment vote goes mainly to Trump if those candidates drop out.

 

[shinra-bansho]

I mean I know it's just an establishment tabloid rag, but the inability to have a simple thread on their editorial endorsement without it devolving into nonsense is pretty bleeping embarrassing.

:/

 

[Yellowtail]

 

[ICKE]

Damn right.

 

[Makai]

Ted Luz

 

[ivysaur12]

Huh, they're saying establishment vote goes mainly to Trump if those candidates drop out.

Fucking LOL

 

[danwarb]

It's gonna be trump and clinton

Hope dashed for another generation, back to the lesser of 2 evils.

Bernie can still do it. Caucus young folk!

 

[User 463088]

 

[Iolo]

538 Twitter poll was eerily accurate.

@NateSilver538

Crowdsourced over/under lines for tonight's DMR poll:
- Clinton 2% ahead of Bernie.
- Trump leads Cruz by 5%
- Rubio at 15%

 

[A Human Becoming]

So today canvassing for Bernie, I was stopped and frisked by a cop. Apparently at a house I knocked on the kid was spooked and called 911. He said I went into the house (which I obviously didn't) and was wearing a mask. The supposed mask was like this, except it was only around my neck. Between walks I would cover below my nose for the wind but I always pulled down before knocking. A second cop showed up after and the three of us just stood there, the road blocked off, while they waited for the kid to come over confirming it was me.

I understand they had to investigate it, but the three cops they brought after was excessive. I was compliant the whole time and answered questions. It's a small town of <5,000 people, so they probably had nothing better to do, but it was still bothersome. Bernie will probably be the last candidate I ever canvass for: it's taciturn and thankless.

20 percent of democrats don't think it's time for a woman president

GAME OVER HILLARY

I met an older woman here who said a woman's place wasn't in the presidency.

 

[Makai]

Trump at 80 on PredictIt lol

 

[shinra-bansho]

Oh the DMR poll is in.

 

[User 406]

Hope dashed for another generation, back to the lesser of 2 evils.

Bernie can still do it. Caucus young folk!

It's always, always the lesser of two evils. Democracy itself is the lesser of two evils. :d

 

[Poodlestrike]

Trump vs. Hillary, it seems.

I can't think of another "win Iowa win nomination" case that was so clear cut. Either Bernie picks up the first 2 (and momentum) or Hillary staves him off and rides into her strong turf.

Meanwhile, on the right of the fence, Trump gains Actual Legitimacy and suddenly his numbers matter.

 

[User 463088]

So today canvassing for Bernie, I was stopped and frisked by a cop. Apparently at a house I knocked on the kid was spooked and called 911. He said I went into the house (which I obviously didn't) and was wearing a mask. The supposed mask was like this, except it was only around my neck. Between walks I would cover below my nose for the wind but I always pulled down before knocking. A second cop showed up after and the three of us just stood there, the road blocked off, while they waited for the kid to come over confirming it was me.

I understand they had to investigate it, but the three cops they brought after was excessive. I was compliant the whole time and answered questions. It's a small town of <5,000 people, so they probably had nothing better to do, but it was still bothersome. Bernie will probably be the last candidate I ever canvass for: it's taciturn and thankless.

That's ridiculous. I'm sorry that happened. Were you going out by yourself, or were you with someone else? I refuse to go door to door alone for safety.

But, I'm glad you were out canvassing for your candidate. Hopefully, you had a lot of people who weren't total assholes to you.

 

[HylianTom]

The important thing is - what were the results of the last day? Was there a trend? Last time around Santorum wasn't in first place, but if you looked at the daily breakdowns he was gaining everyday.

Not sure if that could be possible here though, as those look like the same numbers we've had a few times before from DMR.

We'll hopefully know more when they release their full report.

Here's the DMR's initial article for the Democrats:
http://www.desmoinesregister.com/st...er-look-democrats-iowa-poll-results/79571562/

 

[Holmes]

So today canvassing for Bernie, I was stopped and frisked by a cop. Apparently at a house I knocked on the kid was spooked and called 911. He said I went into the house (which I obviously didn't) and was wearing a mask. The supposed mask was like this, except it was only around my neck. Between walks I would cover below my nose for the wind but I always pulled down before knocking. A second cop showed up after and the three of us just stood there, the road blocked off, while they waited for the kid to come over confirming it was me.

I understand they had to investigate it, but the three cops they brought after was excessive. I was compliant the whole time and answered questions. It's a small town of <5,000 people, so they probably had nothing better to do, but it was still bothersome. Bernie will probably be the last candidate I ever canvass for: it's taciturn and thankless.

I met an older woman here who said a woman's place wasn't in the presidency.

That's horrible.

 

[User 463088]

PDF of Poll Results

HIllary's support is way more firm than Bernie's.

 

[Iolo]

3 points is still way too close to call, but what it does indicate is that the Sanders–Clinton race has stabilized in the last couple weeks. Now it's all down to turnout (and Microsoft shenanigans).

 

[shinra-bansho]

So for those better with numbers than I, does the DMR poll do any sort of turnout projection and/or can it be extrapolated?

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

When does Cruz drop out if he loses Iowa? That's his main state...

 

[Holmes]

3 points is still way too close to call, but what it does indicate is that the Sanders–Clinton race has stabilized in the last couple weeks. Now it's all down to turnout (and Microsoft shenanigans).

I'LL BUY AN XBOX ONE IF CLINTON WINS IOWA

 

[Ziltoidia 9]

For reference, here is 2008:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/ia/iowa_democratic_caucus-208.html

RESULTS:


Barack Obama - 32%
Hillary Rodham Clinton - 25%
John Edwards - 24%
Bill Richardson - 6%
Joe Biden - 4%
Christopher Dodd - 2%
Dennis Kucinich - 1%
Mike Gravel - 0%
Not sure/Uncommitted - 6%

 

[Iolo]

Bernie will probably be the last candidate I ever canvass for: it's taciturn and thankless.

Don't give up.

 

[Makai]

Btw, why were you guys getting excited because the Democrats were tied?

 

[Deleted member 231381]

Basically over. Checking the trends I think there's even been a very slight backwards slide towards Clinton in the last two weeks or so. It's still reasonably probable Sanders could take the popular vote win - 3% lead with 4% MoE between two candidates is only ~65% sure the leader is actually ahead - but the chance of a lead large enough to overcome distribution problems is vanishingly small.

Well, Clinton vs. Trump it is!

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

Asked if they’d be enthusiastic if she becomes the nominee, 73 percent said yes –— and 53 percent are “very” enthusiastic.

From the article. Pretty good.

Hillary's approval rate is at 81%, Bernie at 82%.

 

[Sianos]

Ted Luz

looks like the queen holds the advantage going into iowa and the canadian exile has been struck down

excellent

 

[sangreal]

I don't know why the pundit class was so certain that anyone in iowa gave a shit if he went to the last debate. They acted like it was a slight against iowans. Glad the polls show largely nobody cares

 

[Iolo]

I'LL BUY AN XBOX ONE IF CLINTON WINS IOWA

I'll buy a goddamned Kinect

 

[Basileus777]

Cruz's loans were a bigger negative for him than his citizenship.

 

[User 463088]

Bernie will probably be the last candidate I ever canvass for: it's taciturn and thankless.
.

I just saw that you said this. Please don't feel that way. There can be shitty people out there, but you ARE making a difference. We're on opposite sides of this primary, but being involved is always a good thing. If by knocking on one door you made one more person more likley to vote, then you're helping to prevent the GOP Shitshow from taking over.

 

[NeoXChaos]

Mark Murray &#8207;@mmurraypolitics 4m4 minutes ago
Why Clinton's lead *could* be bigger than DMR poll shows:

83% of Clinton supporters have made up their minds vs. 69% for Sanders

 

[Suikoguy]

I don't know if a Clinton v Trump GE will ever actually "sink in".

 

[Deleted member 231381]

So for those better with numbers than I, does the DMR poll do any sort of turnout projection and/or can it be extrapolated?

Can be extrapolated. Looks to me around 185,000; although that's head math guesstimate.

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

Turnout is going to be good.

 

[Iolo]

Can be extrapolated. Looks to me around 185,000; although that's head math guesstimate.

What about on the Rep side? Are they still predicting an almost inconceivable 280,000?

 

[Butts-a-plenty]

So Hillary supporters are more enthusiastic than Bernie supporters, despite the treasure trove of anecdotes presented here that Bernie supporters are more energized. Shocking.

 

[tmarg]

When does Cruz drop out if he loses Iowa? That's his main state...

Cruz doesn't drop out ever. Question is when does the establishment embrace him as an "anyone but trump" last resort. The funny thing is any Rubio surge is good for trump at this point.

 

[A Human Becoming]

That's ridiculous. I'm sorry that happened. Were you going out by yourself, or were you with someone else? I refuse to go door to door alone for safety.

But, I'm glad you were out canvassing for your candidate. Hopefully, you had a lot of people who weren't total assholes to you.

By myself. I wish I could go with someone, but my area is strongly conservative so it's hard to get volunteers. I've never been too worried since gun ownership is low in my state as is crime rate. I probably had bad timing as someone recently was going door to door looking for empty houses to rob.

Most people simply are not home or don't answer the door (I never do unless it's the police). There's been a few rude people, like a lady who flipped out because I walked to her door having accidentally gone to the wrong house.

I actually started writing up a post on my experience having a long talk with a Trump/Bernie guy, but figured it wasn't interesting enough.

Don't give up.

I just saw that you said this. Please don't feel that way. There can be shitty people out there, but you ARE making a difference. We're on opposite sides of this primary, but being involved is always a good thing. If by knocking on one door you made one more person more likley to vote, then you're helping to prevent the GOP Shitshow from taking over.

I would help to get out the votes for Democrats, I just don't see myself helping a particular campaign.

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

Support for Rubio, who has emerged as the leading establishment candidate, remained flat as the caucuses near. In fact, over the four days of the survey, his support dropped the last two days.

Supporters of Trump are the most decided among the top three candidates, with 71 percent saying their mind is made up, compared to 61 percent for Cruz and 47 percent for Rubio. Trump also leads with most demographic groups measured by the poll, including those without college degrees, moderates and Catholics.

Rubio is going to finish behind Ben Carson and then the Establishment turns back to Jeb as their savior.

 

[Makai]

Cruz doesn't drop out ever. Question is when does the establishment embrace him as an "anyone but trump" last resort. The funny thing is any Rubio surge is good for trump at this point.

Way too late for that.

 

[sangreal]

So for those better with numbers than I, does the DMR poll do any sort of turnout projection and/or can it be extrapolated?

She was asked and refused to answer -- said she is not a 'turnout projectionist'

 

[Holmes]

I'll buy a goddamned Kinect

I'll get adam a male stripper!