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PoliGAF 2015-2016 |OT3| If someone named PhoenixDark leaves your party, call the cops

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B

Bowdz

Member
adam387 said:
I just saw that you said this. Please don't feel that way. There can be shitty people out there, but you ARE making a difference. We're on opposite sides of this primary, but being involved is always a good thing. If by knocking on one door you made one more person more likley to vote, then you're helping to prevent the GOP Shitshow from taking over.
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I'll second this.

No matter who your candidate is, being politically involved is truly a civic virtue as far as I'm concerned. Even though I'm a Hilldawg supporter, you did a great thing by canvassing. Don't ever think otherwise.
 
K

kingkitty

Member
my hot unoriginal take - Trump better hope the race stays super duper fractured into super Tuesday. I hope so too. It's hilarious seeing Jeb trying to kamikaze Rubio at all cost.
 
U

User 463088

Banned
A Human Becoming said:
By myself. I wish I could go with someone, but my area is strongly conservative so it's hard to get volunteers. I've never been too worried since gun ownership is low in my state as is crime rate. I probably had bad timing as someone recently was going door to door looking for empty houses to rob.

Most people simply are not home or don't answer the door (I never do unless it's the police). There's been a few rude people, like a lady who flipped out because I walked to her door having accidentally gone to the wrong house.

I actually started writing up to post my experience having a long talk with a Trump/Bernie guy, but figured it wasn't interesting enough.
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If you have the time, write it up. I love those types of exchanges.

And I hope you don't think I'm being condescending. I really think it's great that you were out working for your candidate. I respect that a lot. :)
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
sangreal said:
She was asked and refused to answer -- said she is not a 'turnout projectionist'
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She essentially is, though. Any pollster is, because without a turnout projection your poll is meaningless. You can work out roughly what turnout they expect from how they've weighted different demographics.
 
U

User 463088

Banned
Holmes said:
I'll get adam a male stripper!
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FloydtheFathead said:
Weren't we going to do that anyway?
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5662d2769b2a50acdc199b04a5e26c4e.gif
 
S

sangreal

Member
kingkitty said:
my hot unoriginal take - Trump better hope the race stays super duper fractured into super Tuesday. I hope so too.
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In states beyond Iowa, Trump is beating most of the establishment track combined

Cruz's guy was on TV saying he isn't going anywhere before March 15 (loser talk, but I digress)
 
A

And_Gignac

Member
It will come down to this:

43% of new caucus goers were first timers in 2008
22% of all cgs were 17-29

Seltzer predicition is 34% of first timers, I think? (I read it on twitter but I am not sure).

I wish her poll had age demos. It would help to sustain my delusion that Sanders can still win.
 
U

User1608

Banned
A Human Becoming said:
So today canvassing for Bernie, I was stopped and frisked by a cop. Apparently at a house I knocked on the kid was spooked and called 911. He said I went into the house (which I obviously didn't) and was wearing a mask. The supposed mask was like this, except it was only around my neck. Between walks I would cover below my nose for the wind but I always pulled down before knocking. A second cop showed up after and the three of us just stood there, the road blocked off, while they waited for the kid to come over confirming it was me.

I understand they had to investigate it, but the three cops they brought after was excessive. I was compliant the whole time and answered questions. It's a small town of <5,000 people, so they probably had nothing better to do, but it was still bothersome. Bernie will probably be the last candidate I ever canvass for: it's taciturn and thankless.

I met an older woman here who said a woman's place wasn't in the presidency.
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That's awful. I'm so sorry that happened to you. I've always enjoyed reading your posts and enthusiasm for Bernie, so don't ever give up. I believe you've done some good in regards to the primary season and hopefully Democrats will move further left in the future. Bernie being in this has thankfully made sure wealth inequality and campaign finance reform were not ignored. I love the guy and agree with him a lot despite some bumps here and there.:)
Suikoguy said:
I don't know if a Clinton v Trump GE will ever actually "sink in".
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If that happens, I'm literally going to be praying and hoping for the best. It's so scary yet exciting.
 
K

kingkitty

Member
sangreal said:
In states beyond Iowa, Trump is beating most of the establishment track combined
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I still think he's beatable if it's one v one. But no one wants to give up!

Rubio could snatch establishment + cruz conservatives who aren't going to vote for a guy who was a liberal. If that's still not enough, maybe they'll be a Trump sex tape to even the odds, I dunno.
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
It's sort of obvious that new caucus goers will be less in 2016 than 2008 because there's a smaller pool of possible new people given 2008 was so high.

I'm really sad that the candidate who is dominating the wealthy and the old is beating the candidate of the poor and the young. The poor continue to have no say in the political systems of most Western democracies, and that sucks.
 
M

Maengun1

Member
Happy with those poll results.

The week or so when people were acting like Cruz could actually win the nomination were TERRIFYING for me. I wish we could just have a Hillary v. Bernie general election, but if I gotta pick between Cruz Trump and Rubio in November........go Trump? :eek:

I'm also a Hillary guy over Bernie, but barely. More because I think she has a better shot to win.....also the Bernie fanatics have been driving me crazy lately (partially my fault, need to stop looking at reddit).
 
U

User 406

Banned
A Human Becoming said:
I would help to get out the votes for Democrats, I just don't see myself helping a particular campaign.
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Never say never. The mathematical realities of our two party system make showing up and voting for the party closest to you a no-brainer, but the primaries is where the real work of changing those parties happens. You might come across another candidate someday that merits the effort. Keep the faith.
 
I

ItWasMeantToBe19

Banned
Crab said:
It's sort of obvious that new caucus goers will be less in 2016 than 2008 because there's a smaller pool of possible new people given 2008 was so high.

I'm really sad that the candidate who is dominating the wealthy and the old is beating the candidate of the poor and the young. The poor continue to have no say in the political systems of most Western democracies, and that sucks.
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... I don't know if a candidate that dominates with women, black people, and Latinos is the candidate of the rich. I would guess that the median income of Hillary supporters < median income of Bernie supporters (among voters that aren't in college right now).
 
F

Four_Chamber

Member
Jeb is just pathetic to watch now, 2%, that awkward tortoise has no idea when to quit

The most interesting thing is the enthusiasm of Hillary supporters- again, online anecdotes have trumpeted an enthusiasm gap but the data doesn't seem to back that up at all.

Looking forward to the actual results of the caucuses on Monday.
 
K

Kangi

Member
Maengun1 said:
Happy with those poll results.

The week or so when people were acting like Cruz could actually win the nomination were TERRIFYING for me. I wish we could just have a Hillary v. Bernie general election, but if I gotta pick between Cruz Trump and Rubio in November........go Trump? :eek:

I'm also a Hillary guy over Bernie, but barely. More because I think she has a better shot to win.....also the Bernie fanatics have been driving me crazy lately (partially my fault, need to stop looking at reddit).
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Oh yeah, Cruz was worrying me. Absolute slimeball of a man whose anti-gay rhetoric is Santorum-level. So glad to see him take a dive as the whole party slams him.
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
... I don't know if a candidate that dominates with women, black people, and Latinos is the candidate of the rich. I would guess that the median income of Hillary supporters < median income of Bernie supporters (among voters that aren't in college right now).
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Not true. Essentially every poll that does income demographics finds Sanders doing better amongst poorer demographics. Clinton's strongest demographic is >$100k.
 
I

ItWasMeantToBe19

Banned
Four_Chamber said:
Jeb is just pathetic to watch now, 2%, that awkward tortoise has no idea when to quit

The most interesting thing is the enthusiasm of Hillary supporters- again, online anecdotes have trumpeted an enthusiasm gap but the data doesn't seem to back that up at all.

Looking forward to the actual results of the caucuses on Monday.
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I mean, young white dudes are the main people online and they're not enthusiastic for Clinton, but that's not the Democrat voting base...

Not true. Essentially every poll that does income demographics finds Sanders doing better amongst poorer demographics. Clinton's strongest demographic is >$100k.
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Hmm, could you post a link to those polls? Interested. Would like to see if they count those that are not employed but in college as the poor...
 
C

Cesare Borgia

Banned
Looks like I'll adjust from Cruz +5 to Cruz +3.

I don't see the same type of voter registration increase that we saw in 08; that increase in new voters is what Obama needed to dominate the caucus with his new, inexperienced voters. Trump also has large support from new caucus goers...but the pool is smaller, and I'm not convinced enough will show up to defeat Cruz's machine.

I'm biased, I look at GOTV/machines and make up my mind. What we've heard about Cruz's campaign and all the experienced precinct captains he has makes me believe he'll win this. But perhaps I'm overlooking something. Clearly there has been a shift from Cruz to Trump...the question is whether it's as drastic as polls suggest.
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
I mean, young white dudes are the main people online and they're not enthusiastic for Clinton, but that's not the Democrat voting base...



Hmm, could you post a link to those polls? Interested.
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http://mobile.nytimes.com/2016/01/3...whites.html?referer=https://www.google.co.uk/

Article here from the NYT runs through it. Note that the CBS numbers it refers to are national, not from Iowa/NH - even at a national level, Sanders is the preferred candidate of the poorest Democrats.
 
O

Overlee

Member
David Axelrod said:
"Turnout is everything," Axelrod said. "If turnout is within a normal range, Hillary likely wins. If it goes higher, approaching 200,000, it will be a good night for Bernie."
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So yall get hyped over a poll only to find out the same information you already knew? Anyone really think there wont be higher than normal turnout? The pollster even said she wouldn't extrapolate turnout because the polls just arnt acurate enough lol
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
shinra-bansho said:
She has a 57:28 lead in the DMR poll with those with household (?) / personal (?) income greater than 100K.
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Personal.

Clinton is the candidate of wealthy liberals who can afford to wait for incrementalism. Sad but true. Still, what's done is done, and she's obviously better than anyone on the Rep side. Just wait for Monday's confirmation and then join the Hillwagon.
 
D

disastermouse

Banned
adam387 said:
Self esteem issues suck so hard. I have this weird thing where I'm immediately doubtful of anyone who wants to ask me out. I get into that "What's wrong with them?" mindset. I'm working on it by working on myself.



I am the 1%.
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Hahahahahahaha! Try Borderline.

I learned long ago to never sleep with anyone on the first date. And to absolutely ignore anything I think or feel for a long time into a relationship. Getting older has helped.

I used to have two kinds of first dates. 'Ho-hum, nice to meet you, blah, blah' and then we never see one another again and '24-36 hour first dates'.
 
S

shinra-bansho

Member
Crab said:
Personal.

Clinton is the candidate of wealthy liberals who can afford to wait for incrementalism. Sad but true. Still, what's done is done, and she's obviously better than anyone on the Rep side. Just wait for Monday's confirmation and then join the Hillwagon.
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I mean that's one interpretation. I don't know if Selzer has released what percentage she takes of other income demographics.

She also has a 10 pt lead among IA women. So she's the candidate of women who can't afford to gamble their reproductive rights.

She has a lead among those over-65. So she's the candidate of those who are attracted to Matlock.

And any number of other partisan interpretations one wants to infer.
 
C

Coriolanus

Banned
Crab said:
Clinton is the candidate of wealthy liberals who can afford to wait for incrementalism. Sad but true. Still, what's done is done, and she's obviously better than anyone on the Rep side. Just wait for Monday's confirmation and then join the Hillwagon.
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Democrats are the party of wealthy liberals who can afford to wait for incrementalism, fwiw.
Can't quite hold that against them.

(also the party of other peoples, obv)
 
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