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[User 463088]

Politico, but...

From your lips to god's ears. Supposedly, someone on CNN said that someone from DMR is saying that 2% of Dems are crossing over to the GOP primary disaster, but there's no evidence of GOPPERs planning to change party registration to caucus for the Dems. I didn't catch it all because I was just getting on my treadmill.

He's just letting the American people get used to hearing from their next Secretary of State

 

[Black Republican]

Politico, but...

for a young senator and his first time running for prez, Obama really lucked out with a class team of people. And alot of them were newbies too right?

 

[User 463088]

for a young senator and his first time running for prez, Obama really lucked out with a class team of people. And alot of them were newbies too right?

They were, but he was so damn smart. So smart. He realized that he couldn't beat Hillary in three contests. He realized that he had to it an entirely new way. And he did it. He saw what her weaknesses were, both demographically and structurally, and took damn good advantage of them. Insanely good advantage of them. He used his foothold with the children to open up advantages among other demographics within the party.

His shit was on an entirely different level. While I was volunteering for Hillary, we had shit level stuff. I mean, just terrible. She hadn't planned that far out, really. It got better about halfway through, but by then he was ranking up huge delegate advantages in those red state caucuses. When I stopped for Hillary (after we were shut down, believe me, I was there until the bitter end)., and switched to Obama, after the required three weeks of mourning and WHY GOD WHY, I was just shocked. They had up to date information. It was easy to access. Phone banking was simple. They were just....on a whole other level.

Interestingly, 2012 was not as good. Not appreciably worse, but definitely not as good as 2008.

 

[Iolo]

And Sanders is expected to announce that he raised $20 million in January, Clinton needs to step up her game. It's bad semantics that Wall Street and the Establishment is loosing the battle for donations to a bunch of people donating $20-30 per pop.

I'm really curious if the Selzer poll is right or if we have to abandon the gold standard for the second time in our history.

It will all come down to whether Hillary's superior enthusiasm carries her over the finish line, or Bernie's organizational muscle rouses his supporters to caucus.

 

[Bowdz]

They were, but he was so damn smart. So smart. He realized that he couldn't beat Hillary in three contests. He realized that he had to it an entirely new way. And he did it. He saw what her weaknesses were, both demographically and structurally, and took damn good advantage of them. Insanely good advantage of them. He used his foothold with the children to open up advantages among other demographics within the party.

His shit was on an entirely different level. While I was volunteering for Hillary, we had shit level stuff. I mean, just terrible. She hadn't planned that far out, really. It got better about halfway through, but by then he was ranking up huge delegate advantages in those red state caucuses. When I stopped for Hillary (after we were shut down, believe me, I was there until the bitter end)., and switched to Obama, after the required three weeks of mourning and WHY GOD WHY, I was just shocked. They had up to date information. It was easy to access. Phone banking was simple. They were just....on a whole other level.

Interestingly, 2012 was not as good. Not appreciably worse, but definitely not as good as 2008.

I finished reading Game Change a few days ago and yeah, BarryO's organization sounded insane. The impression the book gave was that Hilldawg's campaign was just so disjointed and didn't plan out anything, preferring to just throw money at Iowa without a real strategy. Compare that to the mythical Obama campaign and the result seems far less surprising.

 

[Diablos]

I think Hillary has Iowa in the bag. NH is a different story. But I'm not expecting back to back knockout punches against the Clinton campaign, i.e. 2008 Iowa/NH.

Also when is O'Malley going to drop out already? His Iowa song on guitar is so bad it makes me wonder if he's trolling everyone. He can't be that lame.

 

[B-Dubs]

Politico, but...

It's basically saying what we've known for a while, that Hillary inherited and improved upon the Obama machine.

 

[Hexa]

https://imgur.com/gallery/1D0DT

 

[Armaros]

It's basically saying what we've known for a while, that Hillary inherited and improved upon the Obama machine.

That's the thing I was wondering before the primaries even started to rev up, who was going to inherit the insane campaign network that Obama created.

 

[Cesare Borgia]

Politico, but...

I wouldn't go that far personally. Sanders has trained people who know the rules. The problem is that they're concentrated in specific areas (college areas for instance) whereas Clinton has expanded everywhere and has experienced officials/captains.

Likewise Cruz has a really good operation as well. If anyone's organization seems to match what Politico is saying about Sanders it's Trump. He doesn't have the machine and his people are arrogant as hell. I could be wrong and Trump will win as polls suggest...but right now I can't help but view him like Hillary in 08. The arrogance and inexperience of his campaign officials seems to match Hillary's people perfectly.

 

[User 463088]

I finished reading Game Change a few days ago and yeah, BarryO's organization sounded insane. The impression the book gave was that Hilldawg's campaign was just so disjointed and didn't plan out anything, preferring to just throw money at Iowa without a real strategy. Compare that to the mythical Obama campaign and the result seems far less surprising.

Her 2008 stuff wasn't Kerry 2004 GE bad but it was pretty close. (Interestingly, take a look at one name that was tied to that disaster of a campaign...) Like, the Obama people just had everything. They were so much more efficient than we were. We had people who had been doing this for 20 years, but we couldn't get shit out of her headquarters. This time, Barb reached out to a few people, and we got everything within days to get it all set up. Plus, it was a hell of a lot better than in 2008. So far, it's light years ahead of what we had. I'm super excited to canvass with actual good information in the primary.

 

[HylianTom]

I just remembered: I get to kick Bobby to the curb tonight.

Sweet.

(Also: not looking forward to that awkward period between entrance polls and official end results. Especially if they don't match.)

 

[Makai]

http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/02/how-donald-trump-did-it-213581

What they heard as they ate deli sandwiches around Donald Trump’s hulking, wooden conference table sounded like the businessman’s typical bravado. These 25 New York political operatives had come to ask him to run for governor. But Trump had another plan—a very specific plan—to run for president.

“He said, ‘I’m going to walk away with it and win it outright,’” a long-time New York political consultant recalled. “Trump told us, ‘I’m going to get in and all the polls are going to go crazy. I’m going to suck all the oxygen out of the room. I know how to work the media in a way that they will never take the lights off of me.’”

 

[User 463088]

I wouldn't go that far personally. Sanders has trained people who know the rules. The problem is that they're concentrated in specific areas (college areas for instance) whereas Clinton has expanded everywhere and has experienced officials/captains.

Likewise Cruz has a really good operation as well. If anyone's organization seems to match what Politico is saying about Sanders it's Trump. He doesn't have the machine and his people are arrogant as hell. I could be wrong and Trump will win as polls suggest...but right now I can't help but view him like Hillary in 08. The arrogance and inexperience of his campaign officials seems to match Hillary's people perfectly.

Well, I think the trained people who know the rules part is up in the air. His own campaign manager is ranting about a completely legitimate caucus strategy, and admits he doesn't know the rules. I wouldn't be so worried about their geographic issues, but their newness. That's the biggest problem. Caucuses are not primaries.

They Came to See a Rockstar

And here is why you don't build a campaign around 18-24 year olds:

Will Olson, a University of Iowa senior, was among those in the crowd who’d begun to file out just a bit early to enjoy a Saturday night on campus. In a brief interview with The Huffington Post, Olson said that he had indeed come out to see Bernie, not the band.

“I just like how he stands up for all different kinds of people and likes to promote change in the whole political system,” he said.

So as a strong Sanders supporter, he definitely planned to caucus on Monday, right?

“I was going to, but we have an intramural basketball game, so I can’t make it out,” Olson explained.

Alex Cole, a junior, said that he’d seen Democratic and Republican candidates speak in person and remained undecided about who would earn his support.

But he did plan to show up, which was more than he could say for many of his friends who didn’t know the first thing about how to caucus.

“I don’t think most people understand that you’re going to go out there, and you’ve got to go talk to people, and they’re going to try to persuade you to go one way or the other,” he said. “It’s not just a ballot.”

Sanders Powered by Young People

Brandon Holdgrafer, a 20-year-old physiology major, is a good example of Sanders’ challenge.

In between sips of coffee at a Starbucks in Ames, Iowa, Holdgrafer said he feels “really strongly” that Sanders is what the country needs and that he “cares about people.”

Even so, he will not caucus for Sanders. “I’d love to be supportive of him,” said Holdgrafer. “I can’t, I have class,” he said. The same was true for Cesar Victor, a 22-year-old industrial design major, who also has a “time issue.”

Holdgrafer said Sanders probably has enough support to succeed without him.

Also, Bernie's people initially said he had 15,000 volunteers knocking on doors and making phone calls. They revised that number down to 4000, who knocked on 112k doors. Both of which were fewer than Hillary, as she has several unions that have been on the ground as well. Then she has her 4300 trained precinct people who know what to do.

And, you know what bugs me most? Bernie has the people. I actually hope his campaign is doing better than they're being painted at the moment. It'd be a damn waste otherwise. I mean, I don't want them to do too well....

 

[User 463088]

I'm sorry for the double post, but I wanted this where anyone could find it if they wanted it.

Here is the 2008 Exit poll. The time stamp was 9:32 PM.

2008 Dem Exit Poll

I thought someone may enjoy that.

 

[Y2Kev]

If trump wins Iowa, I will shed a single tear for PD.

 

[Yellowtail]

Also, Bernie's people initially said he had 15,000 volunteers knocking on doors and making phone calls. They revised that number down to 4000, who knocked on 112k doors. Both of which were fewer than Hillary, as she has several unions that have been on the ground as well. Then she has her 4300 trained precinct people who know what to do.

Clinton's said her campaign has knocked on 186,000 doors in the past three days.

Cruz said his campaign have been knocking on 1000 doors a day.

That should put into context the vast gulf between Democratic and Republican campaigns when it comes to ground games. People talk about about Cruz's operation being really good, but that's only in comparison to other Republicans who are running their operations out of Starbucks.

I don't see it as being good enough to overcome the 5+% deficit against Trump.

 

[Y2Kev]

I want to hear cruz's speech after he loses. I guess that's my question. What would his presidential concession speech be like? I'd like to hear that. Do I risk him winning just to see him eat it? Tough call.

 

[Makai]

I want to hear cruz's speech after he loses. I guess that's my question. What would his presidential concession speech be like? I'd like to hear that. Do I risk him winning just to see him eat it? Tough call.

Come on. Trump's concession speech is the firestarter.

 

[Plinko]

Clinton's said her campaign has knocked on 186,000 doors in the past three days.

Cruz said his campaign have been knocking on 1000 doors a day.

That should put into context the vast gulf between Democratic and Republican campaigns when it comes to ground games. People talk about about Cruz's operation being really good, but that's only in comparison to other Republicans who are running their operations out of Starbucks.

I don't see it as being good enough to overcome the 5+% deficit against Trump.

Who needs knocking on doors when you have misleading literature on your side?

 

[Bowdz]

Clinton's said her campaign has knocked on 186,000 doors in the past three days.

Cruz said his campaign have been knocking on 1000 doors a day.

That should put into context the vast gulf between Democratic and Republican campaigns when it comes to ground games. People talk about about Cruz's operation being really good, but that's only in comparison to other Republicans who are running their operations out of Starbucks.

I don't see it as being good enough to overcome the 5+% deficit against Trump.

In Mook we trust.

 

[User 463088]

Come on. Trump's concession speech is the firestarter.

Really, Iowa? Really? The Canadian? Okay, look. You don't want to win in Iowa? Really? You want your corn and...what Canadians? Is it an alliteration thing with you people? I pretended to love your god! I even talked about Two Corinthians to you people. And, that wasn't enough? I wanted you to win. I wanted you to win big. But you went with a loser like Ted Cruz. I promised you a wall, right? A big wall. And you went with the man who probably hopped the border? And, really, I mean, come on, Iowa. Are you stupid? I mean, you are, obviously. Why are you so stupid? Is it because you're used to being around losers all the time? I gave you a chance to win. Fine. Whatever. You're all fired.

And then I think he pees on the front row to show dominance.

 

[sangreal]

I actually watched Trump give a speech the other day (the hangar one) where he was going on about how Iowans always elect losers. I imagine his concession would be along those lines

 

[B-Dubs]

Really, Iowa? Really? The Canadian? Okay, look. You don't want to win in Iowa? Really? You want your corn and...what Canadians? Is it an alliteration thing with you people? I pretended to love your god! I even talked about Two Corinthians to you people. And, that wasn't enough? I wanted you to win. I wanted you to win big. But you went with a loser like Ted Cruz. I promised you a wall, right? A big wall. And you went with the man who probably hopped the border? And, really, I mean, come on, Iowa. Are you stupid? I mean, you are, obviously. Why are you so stupid? Is it because you're used to being around losers all the time? I gave you a chance to win. Fine. Whatever. You're all fired.

And then I think he pees on the front row to show dominance.

That final sentence in your post is what elevates this from very good to funny as shit.

 

[Joe Shlabotnik]

I want to hear cruz's speech after he loses. I guess that's my question. What would his presidential concession speech be like? I'd like to hear that. Do I risk him winning just to see him eat it? Tough call.

I think we all know how his campaign ends:

https://youtu.be/CBEIZYCSy5g

 

[Makai]

Twillary Linton

 

[HylianTom]

Really, Iowa? Really? The Canadian? Okay, look. You don't want to win in Iowa? Really? You want your corn and...what Canadians? Is it an alliteration thing with you people? I pretended to love your god! I even talked about Two Corinthians to you people. And, that wasn't enough? I wanted you to win. I wanted you to win big. But you went with a loser like Ted Cruz. I promised you a wall, right? A big wall. And you went with the man who probably hopped the border? And, really, I mean, come on, Iowa. Are you stupid? I mean, you are, obviously. Why are you so stupid? Is it because you're used to being around losers all the time? I gave you a chance to win. Fine. Whatever. You're all fired.

And then I think he pees on the front row to show dominance.

My god. The front row getting splashed just gave me Gallagher flashbacks. Maybe he could make that another thing, to the point where folks in the front rows bring tarps to protect themselves from getting too wet.

..

Meanwhile, @CostaReports says:
"Iowa GOP chair Jeff Kaufmann tells WaPo that party HQ in Iowa is getting 100 calls an hour, expects record turnout."

Dang.

 

[PBY]

Meanwhile, @CostaReports says:
"Iowa GOP chair Jeff Kaufmann tells WaPo that party HQ in Iowa is getting 100 calls an hour, expects record turnout."

Dang.

Meh not sure how much stock I put into this. The registration numbers so far don't bear this out.

 

[Black Republican]

Really, Iowa? Really? The Canadian? Okay, look. You don't want to win in Iowa? Really? You want your corn and...what Canadians? Is it an alliteration thing with you people? I pretended to love your god! I even talked about Two Corinthians to you people. And, that wasn't enough? I wanted you to win. I wanted you to win big. But you went with a loser like Ted Cruz. I promised you a wall, right? A big wall. And you went with the man who probably hopped the border? And, really, I mean, come on, Iowa. Are you stupid? I mean, you are, obviously. Why are you so stupid? Is it because you're used to being around losers all the time? I gave you a chance to win. Fine. Whatever. You're all fired.

And then I think he pees on the front row to show dominance.

i think we got a double agent here, supporting Clinton yet writing for Trump.


I see you

 

[Joe Shlabotnik]

Twillary Linton

That legit sounds like a code phrase

 

[sangreal]

Twillary Linton

Dear John

poor guy

 

[pigeon]

Socks go on feet

Feet are 12 inches

Warm 12 inches in bed

Hillary/Podesta confirmed

Also gross

 

[Y2Kev]

Socks keep you warm

If you're warm you are going hot

Going hot is what soldiers say when they're about to open fire

Soldiers were at Benghazi

Therefore Hillary killed ben ghazi

 

[dramatis]

Socks have been around long enough to be establishment

 

[Makai]

you know what they say about big socks

big shoes

Hillary is a shoe-in

 

[Iolo]

Meanwhile, in news just as disgusting.

Politics1.com ‏@Politics1com 11m11 minutes ago

P2016: Regardless of what happens in Iowa, Rick Santorum told Des Moines Register he plans to make his go-for-broke effort in South Carolina

More like go-broke effort.

(also it's bravado. every candidate makes dumb statements like this, a day before they drop out)

 

[Cesare Borgia]

Well, I think the trained people who know the rules part is up in the air. His own campaign manager is ranting about a completely legitimate caucus strategy, and admits he doesn't know the rules. I wouldn't be so worried about their geographic issues, but their newness. That's the biggest problem. Caucuses are not primaries.

Good point. I had thought some of that comment boiled down to typical Bernie style "they're rigging the system" language but you're right.

That article is interesting, we'll see how true it is later tonight. I think Obama's youth and charisma won him young followers. People could relate to him. Whereas I think Bernie's age hurts him, and I doubt his young people are as dedicated as they need to be. And I don't think a lot of his supporters are ready to deal with the pain/inconvenience of a caucus.

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

I support the "Rick Santorum sets fire to all his money" plan.

 

[rjinaz]

Lol Trump striking out in his rally in Iowa. Looks empty. Maybe Cruz has a chance?

 

[Aaron Strife]

Certain to be lost in today's hubbub, GOP Congressman Reid Ribble (WI-8) announced his retirement today. Cook has already moved his seat to Lean R and Sabato to Tossup.

The path to a House majority is becoming clearer for the Democrats, unfortunately it's going to require a perfect sweep. Even picking up all of Sabato's Tossups and Lean Rs would put Democrats 5 seats short, but maybe Trump will force some of those Likely R seats to be more competitive.

 

[OrangeGrayBlue]

Lol Trump striking out in his rally in Iowa. Looks empty. Maybe Cruz has a chance?

It blows my mind that Ted Cruz is the only person who might give Trump his "If it bleeds, we can kill it" moment. Terrifying. But also great for dems.

 

[User 406]

 

[Cheebo]

I wonder what would have happened if Bernie didnt end up being an actual real competition for Hillary. Would a ton of Dems caucus for Trump for the lolz? I imagine there would be a decent amount.

 

[Coriolanus]

That's not what btw means. Thats not what btw means.

 

[Iolo]

That's not what btw means. Thats not what btw means.

I thought the same thing.

Generational divide, man

 

[RustyNails]

That legit sounds like a code phrase

Yup. Keep that burner phone with you. I will call at approximately 3:45 AM. Make sure Geronimo is debriefed asap.

 

[Holmes]

That's not what btw means. Thats not what btw means.

DON'T SHAME MY ABUELA

 

[Joe Shlabotnik]

The real string-puller of the Clinton Administration.

Or chaser, at least.

 

[Holmes]

I don't think Trump's big mistake in the general will be calling Clinton a bitch or anything. He'll probably be caught on camera being really rude to young child at a rally or something and it'll blow up.

 

[Coriolanus]

DON'T SHAME MY ABUELA

I'm just saying that she's the kinda person that thinks lol means lots of love, is all.

Probably also would think that if one of her daughters showed up with a queen of spades tattoo, all that it would mean is that they liked the design.