In all honesty he has been pretty good around kids so far. Him chatting with the kids while giving him rides in the helicopter in the Iowa state fair made him come across dare I say likeable?
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PoliGAF 2015-2016 |OT3| If someone named PhoenixDark leaves your party, call the cops
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Basileus777
Member
I don't see how it is great for dems at all. It's mostly good for Rubio.
One of the most humanizing things I've seen from Trump is about as trivial as you can imagine. Yesterday on ABC News, Tom Yamas(?) greeted Trump in the back halls after a rally and the way Trump greeted Tom (Hey Tom! How are you doing?) legitimately sounded so friendly and genuine (especially coming from one of the biggest bullshitters in the world), it honestly made me think that maybe this was the real Trump that is friendly with everyone.
Stupid and trivial, but impactful to me.
Stupid and trivial, but impactful to me.
Jack Remington
Banned
If trump wins Iowa, I will shed a single tear for PD.
I'll shed a tear for not being able to assign him an avatar.
The man does have 5 kids (thanks, Google!).
Question: if Sanders gets 49% and gets Hillary's 46% (as shown by the Quinnipiac poll), could Hillary still win because of caucus math? Like, since so much of Sanders' support is concentrated in college towns etc., would he realistically need to win the popular vote by a higher margin than 3%?
Yes. We won't know the popular vote margin though, only the delegate allocation.
Yes, him winning with just by a few percentage points would most likely mean running up the margins where he is already strong (the mentioned collage towns) and delgates have a cap, so it does nothing for the delegate count.
We won't know the exact vote numbers until March.
Or maybe it's that he's gotten more vitriolic ever since the race got closer!!
Maybe that's part of the case -- I'm well aware of my own biases. I appreciate Glenn's viewpoint on a lot of things, and realize he goes for the jugular more than he should. He's overstepped leading up the caucuses, and that Warren video is just the biggest, dumbest piece of "LOOK SHE'S NOT A REAL PROGRESSIVE!" stuff you'd expect from a DailyKos commenter.
Lot of smart newbies who didn't end up going into politics for the most part. He also had a solid 4+ years to build his team, since the 2004 Senate race ended up turning into a joke.
2012 had the problem where a lot of the folks from 2008 had gone on elsewhere, from my understanding.
This will probably happen - however, the narrative will be the key leading out of Iowa. If Sanders wins Iowa, then NH, then the narrative will be that HRC has a fight on her hands. If Sanders loses Iowa, wins NH, and then gets trashed in SC, it'll probably be over for Sanders.
I imagine running such a dominate campaign in 2008 would open doors for other careers and lock them out of going back in 2012 (unless they quit their jobs)
Bunch (4) of NH polls dropped, better just to link to Huffpo
http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-new-hampshire-presidential-republican-primary
In summary: Holy shit Trump.
http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-new-hampshire-presidential-republican-primary
In summary: Holy shit Trump.
Lone Wolf
Member
Whats funny about it?
Holy shit! If Trump wins tonight, and he gets the market bounce I expect, I may just sell and move all that cash into the general election market.
It's not haha funny, it's the other kind. The sad kind of funny.
Polling average suggests that Hillary is slightly ahead, but for simplicity's sake lets say that Sanders and Clinton are effectively tied and each get 100 voters to spread across the playing field.
If Seltzer's polling is to be believed, 27 of those Bernie voters would be clustered in 3 counties.
The other 73 Bernie voters would be spread-out throughout the other 96 counties.
Hillary's 100 voters are more evenly spread over the 99 counties; she has much less of a cluster effect.
Bernie's going to absolutely romp in those three counties. But he's going to need a rather large wave of new voters outside of those locations in order to catch-up.
A lot of us also graduated and went to go do what our degrees and stuff were in.
Once the recession happened afterward - I can imagine a lot of people wanted to stay in their current jobs as well. For those who went into politics - yeah; the Obama 08 team was basically a gold star to put on your resume that opened a lot of doors.Because we're starting the month of celebrating black history and progress by getting excited for a 95% white electoral contest?
And_Gignac
Member
Does Sanders need to win by at least 3% in order to win the caucus? Also consider that Sanders camp has rented a shitton of buses to bus home kids willing to do so. Considering clases will be likely cancelled tomorrow due to snow, it may sound like a tempting offer for college kids.
We will see, I see Clinton camp more organized in the strategic game. Sanders may need to win the popular vote by a larger margin.
We will see, I see Clinton camp more organized in the strategic game. Sanders may need to win the popular vote by a larger margin.
A candidate is assigned delegates and wins delegates on a per county basis. The reason Hilary has an edge isn't just because Sanders's support is concentrated in three counties. It's also because Hillary already has "superdelegates" that automatically give her a head start. Superdelegates are the unelected delegates that can give their support to anyone they want.
So, to answer your question, you can win the popular vote in Iowa statewide and still lose in the delegate count and you can lose it with big margins.
It's crazy to remember that there were that many Democratic candidates in the field in 2008.
WE'RE HERE KIDS
WE DID IT
IT'S TODAY
What did we do?
Survive.
A shit-ton of delegates are available in those counties/precincts, though. If Hillary gets blown out there, she's not magically going to win. She still has to keep the margin reasonable there.
We didn't get banned or kill each other. WE DID IT!
Lone Wolf
Member
I see. What state would you prefer to start if you could pick? Also, is Iowa a racist state?
Bam Bam Baklava
Member
The state which most closely resembles US demographics.
Well, not all of us survived. There were some casualties.
Poodlestrike
Banned
Aaron Strife
Banned
I've got some 300 dollars riding on Trump winning the nomination.
Wish I didn't chicken out on Iowa though.
There always is in war.
But still. A lot of the people left have been rather, well let's just say, "vocal". So kudos to us that may have been stubborn and may have gone overboard at times. But not too far...
I will say this though, a lot of you Clinton folks I didn't think I would have have ground to stand on with. But it really seems like there was some ground to find after all. I would even say some people "chilled out" I guess I would say. Myself included I suppose. The last month or so has been far more enjoyable here for me.
Black Mamba
Member
Just a heads, the GOP polling is likely to be off for numerous reasons.
1. We don't know if Trump's supporters will show up
2. There's 2 types of undecides. The kind that either won't admit they support Trump or want to make sure he doesn't implode before they support him. The other kind is someone who refuses to vote for Trump but has been patiently waiting to see who the best option to defeat him is.
3. The lesser candidates are likely to lose votes as people start to think a little more rationally. A vote for Fiorina is a wasted vote, so why bother? These guys will go somewhere else. Will it be Trump or not-Trump? I don't know.
I'm not arguing that Trump's numbers are too high or too low. I think it's Trump or Cruz. I think Cruz still has an avenue to win. But what I question is how much the results will look like the polls (the order may be right but the differences will be different IMO). It's impossible to guess the outcome because of how many variables are at stake.
The Dem side is a bit more reliable. I think the polling is probably pretty accurate and only turnout will be the variable.
Should be interesting, that's for sure.
1. We don't know if Trump's supporters will show up
2. There's 2 types of undecides. The kind that either won't admit they support Trump or want to make sure he doesn't implode before they support him. The other kind is someone who refuses to vote for Trump but has been patiently waiting to see who the best option to defeat him is.
3. The lesser candidates are likely to lose votes as people start to think a little more rationally. A vote for Fiorina is a wasted vote, so why bother? These guys will go somewhere else. Will it be Trump or not-Trump? I don't know.
I'm not arguing that Trump's numbers are too high or too low. I think it's Trump or Cruz. I think Cruz still has an avenue to win. But what I question is how much the results will look like the polls (the order may be right but the differences will be different IMO). It's impossible to guess the outcome because of how many variables are at stake.
The Dem side is a bit more reliable. I think the polling is probably pretty accurate and only turnout will be the variable.
Should be interesting, that's for sure.
them and Bertram are sill banned. Tonight is going to be boring without Hillary's number #1 cheerleader on GAF.
Cerium
HillaryGAF let's behave ourselves tonight. If we win no rubbing it in.
A Human Becoming
More than a Member
FTFY
Reading B-Dubs thread I felt sick of these themes, but then I thought of something unconventional for the fifth Democratic debate that will likely have a mixed reception.
After his ban, SourShoes was ethered here in absentia by Stump. I honestly wouldn't hold your breath.
is the theme Blues Clues? that'd be neat
i picked hamtaro for my last thread, but it was a coin clip between ham and blue.
you got the next two D's. I got the extra D March. We can split April and May.
Yup. 25% of the delegates in the state, if I recall correctly.
Tonight we shall probably see whether (or how much of) Obama's win came from "enthusiasm" and big rallies, and how much from pure organization. That's not to denigrate Sanders' organization at all. But since the youth vote seems equally as excited as for Obama, it probably represents a constant in the equation.
hmm I see. sounds good to me.
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