Elaugaufein
Member
I'm not even sure how you plan on making Johnson and Stein both competitive in a US GE without a very carefully thought out and super complex immigration plan which may involve some "involuntary migration".
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PoliGAF 2015-2016 |OT3| If someone named PhoenixDark leaves your party, call the cops
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I'm not even sure how you plan on making Johnson and Stein both competitive in a US GE without a very carefully thought out and super complex immigration plan which may involve some "involuntary migration".
Right, but abortion is a "safe" issue, because you can campaign on either side knowing nothing is going to come of it.
Issues like gay marriage, though, establishment republicans know that is a losing issue, and can't wait to get away from it as soon as possible.
For Democrats I don't expect a surprise. Different story for the GOP.
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
? If a Republican becomes president, they appoint enough judges to overturn Roe v. Wade.
Rubio also said his judges will annul all gay marriages.
A tie for Hillary is okay. Probably better for Sanders overall, but doesn't give him the narrative he wants going into Super Tuesday. Sanders is already winning NH in the polls, so the expectations go the other way next week.
Plus Hillary is clearly chosen by God to be the candidate based on the coin flips, so that's a plus.
Plus Hillary is clearly chosen by God to be the candidate based on the coin flips, so that's a plus.
Elaugaufein
Member
ProfessorMoran
Member
Not sure why Trump is considered to be in the same camp as Cruz and Carson, Trump is basically a fatcat amoral land developer with a history of supporting democratic candidates and policies masquerading as a transformative conservative with no previous history of conservativism, his moderate establishment hype based support as well as his pitchfork crazy let's blow shit up support are both vulnerable to be cannibalized from both sides.
benjipwns
Banned
Those are the county delegates who will attend their conventions to select district delegates for the district conventions who will select the state delegates for the state convention on June 18th where they will vote to select national delegates for the national convention.
Joe Shlabotnik
Banned
With the big caveat that I don't really think Iowa matters much in the long run at all, in the very very short-term this feels like the "worst" outcome for both of them. Practically speaking, a virtual tie means Sanders is still toast, but also makes Clinton's support look a little soft. They kind of cancelled each other's momentum out.
Again though, this is just an immediate post-mortem and not anything that will likely matter shortly.
RustyNails
Member
From that delegate tracker chart, Bernie really needed to overperform whereas Hillary needed only 7 or so delegates. This will handicap Bernie campaign very much.
As a non-believer I prefer to think of this as probability favors Hillary.
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
From 538, Bernie's most to least winnable states:
In reality, he isn't. But that doesn't really matter. Trump's voter base is what's important, not the man himself.
Unless you think he actually has a shot at the white house.
Now that the thread has calmed down I wanted to post this again. My arguments with my mom seem to always come back to this, that Hillary supposedly lied to the families of the Benghazi victims. Here is how Hillary has responded:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jAUDS-aLGjI
I don't have a good answer for her, because honestly it doesn't look great. What do you guys think of this and how it will play in the GE? I imagine the Republicans will be putting up ads interviewing these same family members.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jAUDS-aLGjI
I don't have a good answer for her, because honestly it doesn't look great. What do you guys think of this and how it will play in the GE? I imagine the Republicans will be putting up ads interviewing these same family members.
It's more about the anti-establishment (anyone but Rubio) voter bloc that exists in the party and how they stack up at this point. That fight, whether that'll be with Cruz or Trump v. Rubio, is one that you'd think the establishment guy would win, but I'm not so sure. You can say that Rubio is gonna be another Romney, but if Romney didn't have the money to sink into his own campaign last time he would've been in more trouble against Santorum/Newt who had no money put together. I don't think Rubio has that same advantage, even if the money will be behind him.
Someone like Trump won't have that problem (if he's in it for the long haul, which is debatable now that he's lost) and Cruz will have a lot of anti-establishment support behind him too and will probably win a shitload of southern states (you know, where the actual base of the party resides).
It's gonna be fascinating to see play out. Because a lot of conservatives really hate Rubio.
Fenderputty
Banned
Trumps is obviously not a real evengelical Christian. Rubio is surprising but Cruz not so much.
Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
And that's the thing. Either the polling is absolutely worthless, or Trump just got second in a state filled with people that aren't his primary audience.
I'm going with the latter for now.
I mean, Cruz is polling at under 15% nationally. That state was prime Cruz territory.
If New Hampshire changes, then I'll think otherwise.
This is a very good graph for Bernie Sanders:
I knew he'd do well among 17-29 but his performance in 30-44 is much stronger than I anticipated.
Benghazi gonna Benghazi. I think that this stuff is all grist to the mill at this point. I really don't think anybody is going to be swayed by it.
/cdn0.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/5989833/sanders%20support%20age.png)
I knew he'd do well among 17-29 but his performance in 30-44 is much stronger than I anticipated.
Benghazi gonna Benghazi. I think that this stuff is all grist to the mill at this point. I really don't think anybody is going to be swayed by it.
Elaugaufein
Member
I think people are misunderstanding polling to some extent. They usually aren't raw numbers, rather all kinds of weights are applied to compensate for demographics under represented by sampling methods and to account for things people won't say to a human being but will vote in a polling booth. Those weights are based on historical knowledge. The less typical you think a race is , the less you should trust the polls.
Coriolanus
Banned
Would you happen to know which share of the vote those two categories represented in the previous cycle?
Veritigo_X
Member
Trump's first tweet of the day. Going with the narrative everyone expected him to.
edit: beaten
edit: beaten
I hope you're right. I mean, Rubio's whole, "Hillary is disqualified from being president because she had an insecure email server!" just made me laugh. It just sounds preposterous. This though is a bit eh. The optics are bad.
This isn't the best look, but its soooooooooo much better than a twitter meltdown.
JetBlackPanda
Member
Meanwhile, his "second place sucks" tweet from last year was retweeted a TON last night.
Joe Shlabotnik
Banned
It will make people who were never going to vote for her still not vote for her
Elaugaufein
Member
I suspect you'd find a correlation between who became political aware after Reagan and the subsequent Democratic realignment and Sanders support. They don't get why people are still running from Reagan's ghost 30 years later.
Joe Shlabotnik
Banned
Sounds like something a softy with tiny hands would say
Elaugaufein
Member
If Trump loses NH PredictIt will be fascinating. That will basically end Trump and the subsequent realignment will be fascinating. I suspect Cruz will benefit enormously since he's the most outsider candidate who will be getting attention at the time.
ETA: Also Real Reagan rather than Saint Reagan would probably get run out of today's GOP as a RINO. Hell they've turned on Paul Ryan since be became Speaker.
A Human Becoming
More than a Member
Might be over for him if he does. Winners don't lose repeatedly.
j_k_redtail
Member
From 538, Bernie's most to least winnable states:
So I have real reservations about this analysis. In a given state, (%White) * (%Liberal) does not necessarily equal (%WhiteLiberals). It's possible that minorities are much more liberal than white voters. In the most extreme cases (like LA) white voters and liberal voters might be mutually exclusive groups.
benjipwns
Banned
He didn't have enough characters for one at the end.
Cruz & Rubio will both get a bump in New Hampshire, Trump will probably go down a bit.
Trump should be back on the upswing by the time the actual vote happens there, if polls go by their typical patterns.
I wonder what Trump's strategy will be on this next debate.
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
True, this is super rough by assuming that white and liberal are independent among Democrats, but it's still probably a close enough approximation.
benjipwns
Banned
He's got a week.
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
Fuckabee's endorsement+adding "If Hillary Clinton couldn't satisfy her husband, how can she satisfy the American people?" to his stump speech would get the momentum back.
Elaugaufein
Member
He still got second , so there's not a real peer pressure effect. And Cruz won, its hard hard to see someone switching from Trump to Cruz in a fit of social conscience.
Seems like the main thing that happened was the poor showing of Establishment candidates caused many people to rally to their best bet (Rubio).
So I suspect the answer is yes but only indirectly.
I really think all of Trump's focus should be on getting out the vote.
Not sure how well he'll do attacking Rubio - Rubio is just a dude who will acknowledge the attack and pivot to his talking points.
I can see this now:
Trump: Marco can't keep us safe, he wants amnesty. And amnesty means less jobs and ISIS in America. You can't trust this flip flopper.
Rubio: Talking points.
Not sure how well he'll do attacking Rubio - Rubio is just a dude who will acknowledge the attack and pivot to his talking points.
I can see this now:
Trump: Marco can't keep us safe, he wants amnesty. And amnesty means less jobs and ISIS in America. You can't trust this flip flopper.
Rubio: Talking points.
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