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[Brinbe]

It's true though, the majority of those Iowan voters chose anyone but the establishment (Cruz/Trump/Carson) and I think that closely resembles the nationwide GOP electorate at this point. And all the Rubio/Bush/Kasich/Christie voters combined can't overcome that.

NH will be interesting to watch because it is a lot less friendly/evangelical to Cruz and should be favorable to Trump.

 

[Joe Shlabotnik]

Drudge is pushing the narrative that Clinton only won because of the coin flips.

Is Drudge even a thing for anyone anymore?

 

[Y2Kev]

Why compare trump Cruz Carson to the establishment? Very soon it's going to be just trump or just Cruz vs just Rubio! Very scary!!!

 

[User 406]

You know, it would be SO damn funny if this time their poll was wildly inaccurate. :X

Haha, yeah, that would be really funny.

You're lucky ted let you get the last word manky or that exchange might have gone on forever

I gotta say, getting my 2 minutes hate on with Fake Ted Cruz is the best part of PoliGAF chat, seeing if he was there was a big part of why I even joined this time. Whoever is playing the role is doing a great thing. Also, he's all about the booty. :d

It's amazing how 90% of cable news chatter is Sanders/Clinton and not about Trump shit the bed.

The media is going to fixate on the most horceraciest horse race. Gotta keep those eyes glued to their sponsor messages. If anything, the parties should wise up and deliberately engineer their primaries to have the closest, most dramatic race possible, just so they get more attention.

Kinda surprised Hillary destroyed Bernie on Health Care

The PPACA is Obama's legacy, it cost the party immense political capital to get it passed after a really horrible media battle, and the Republicans have been doing everything they can to fuck with it non-stop since it was passed. Bernie is proposing starting all that over from scratch, with an even more unappealing tax hit. We'd all love an even more lefty solution, sure, but you don't throw away a hard won gain just like that. Face it, we've finally got a national coverage system after a century of trying, and imperfect as it is, building on it is what's going to happen. Social Security was an incomplete mess to start with too, but here we are.

Clinton should really own the coin toss thing, just run with it. Imagine:

"America, do you want to vote for an unlucky candidate, or a lucky one?"

Cuts to shot of Clinton balling in Vegas.

God damn establishment dimes with their flip flopping!

I'm still bitter about 2008, so I'll give them the benefit of the doubt. I don't like caucuses. It's not that their undemocratic, but it adds a layer of complexity to voting. It's not fair to those who have to work, or can only find transportation at specific times. I would love to see them all go away and be replaced with a primary. I feel it's just more fair.

Oh they're totally undemocratic, the poor accessibility and the ability to manipulate the math after seeing how things are shaking out really make it unrepresentative to begin with, but most of all the lack of a secret ballot means all kinds of distorting social pressures come into play from turnout to result. Caucuses are just terrible and have no upsides.

 

[QuiteWhittle]

For all the talk about Sanders being the next McGovern, how well would the actual McGovern have fared in today's political climate? He had a honest, "outsider" image, he was popular with white youth and blacks, his formerly radical liberalism is now more than acceptable to the Democratic base, etc, he seems a bit ahead of his time, oh well.

 

[Brinbe]

It just seems insane to me that people would want Sanders if Rubio is starting to shape up to be the nom on the Repub side. I have to imagine that would be a bloodbath.

We're gonna get a repeat of https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YLDx4NZr2u4 aren't we?

Why compare trump Cruz Carson to the establishment? Very soon it's going to be just trump or just Cruz vs just Rubio! Very scary!!!

Because as truly scary as a Rubio nomination may be to everyone outside the GOP, it remains to be seen if the full weight of the establishment really means anything when the majority of GOP voters hate the establishment.

 

[Jarmel]

Why compare trump Cruz Carson to the establishment? Very soon it's going to be just trump or just Cruz vs just Rubio! Very scary!!!

The anti-establishment vastly outnumbered the establishment vote last night. Rubio pretty much cleaned up the establishment side and capped out while both Trump and Cruz split the anti-establishment with Carson getting some action on the side.

Now that's Iowa and so NH will be a different ballgame but anti-establishment still looks to be a force. The question is whether they coalesce around Trump or dissipate.

 

[NYCmetsfan]

Why do I go in to OT political threads?

Its not really the Bernie fans but the people who come in to every thread and make constant assertions about the rest of the world and how the US is so "far right" and a nation which has nothing to do but remake itself like the perfect little Europe.

It's so exhausting.

 

[Teggy]

In the days leading up to the voting , when I talked to voters on the fence between candidates -- people who could possibly be persuaded to support Trump -- one thing became clear: everybody watched the debate. It was the only debate held in Iowa, and it took place in the final days of the campaign, when voters who had been reluctant to pay attention months earlier had finally become interested and involved. They all tuned in. And Trump wasn't there.

Mhm. I knew this was Trump being a pussy and not some great strategy.

 

[Elaugaufein]

I still want to know how Sanders won both the Less and More Liberal vote. Did the less Liberal group think of the word in the European context rather than the American one ? Are they insane ? Do Democratic Primariers who want a less Liberal President just loath Hillary due to a hidden variable ?

Why do I go in to OT political threads?

Its not really the Bernie fans but the people who come in to every thread and make constant assertions about the rest of the world and how the US is so "far right" and a nation which has nothing to do but remake itself like the perfect little Europe.

It's so exhausting.

Uh, its kind of true. I mean you can obviously run whatever political position you want but you are pretty right leaning. I see people freaking out about Sanders position Democrats as obstructionists equivalent to the Tea Party and its ridiculous. There are major parties who have formed government who's actual policy platforms are equivalent to Sanders and those countries aren't smoking hellscapes or anything.

 

[br0ken_shad0w]

Why do I go in to OT political threads?

Its not really the Bernie fans but the people who come in to every thread and make constant assertions about the rest of the world and how the US is so "far right" and a nation which has nothing to do but remake itself like the perfect little Europe.

It's so exhausting.

:lol political OT threads are fun reads if you avoid getting involved.

 

[shinra-bansho]

The anti-establishment vastly outnumbered the establishment vote last night. Rubio pretty much cleaned up the establishment side and capped out while both Trump and Cruz split the anti-establishment with Carson getting some action on the side.

Now that's Iowa and so NH will be a different ballgame but anti-establishment still looks to be a force. The question is whether they coalesce around Trump or dissipate.

Cruz's vote was evangelicals. It could also be anti-establishment I guess.

They made up like two thirds of the voters and he took like a third of them.

 

[CCS]

I still want to know how Sanders won both the Less and More Liberal vote. Did the less Liberal group think of the word in the European context rather than the American one ? Are they insane ? Do Democratic Primariers who want a less Liberal President just loath Hillary due to a hidden variable ?

I suspect Less Liberal contains a lot of what might be called the Bernie Bros.

 

[Y2Kev]

Probably wins policy people on more liberal and anti establishment people on less liberal.

 

[Diablos]

Trump against letting people die on the street.

Done

I know. It's like he was a Democrat for 60 seconds.

Not sure how he can achieve this ultimate goal for healthcare without advocating for single payer. I'm sure republican voters are wondering the same thing.

 

[User 406]

Mhm. I knew this was Trump being a pussy and not some great strategy.

Was anyone ever really convinced that he was doing anything but cravenly running away from Megyn Kelly like lanadelrey.gif? He knew she would have gutted him like a fish.

It'll be damn funny if that was the horseshoe nail that does him in.

 

[benjipwns]

Does anyone know how much money has been raised thus far by each of the Republican candidates?

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/us/elections/election-2016-campaign-money-race.html

 

[Veritigo_X]

PredictItGAF, has anyone dared look yet?

 

[Ignatz Mouse]

PredictItGAF, has anyone dared look yet?

Yeah. I was having a heart attack last night, when Hillary shares started dropping like crazy. But they rebounded. She's selling for .92 now, which I guess reflects any doubt left in the process.

 

[Teggy]

Hey, so there's supposed to be another Fox News debate in March that Trump will have to decide if he'll attend? Too bad it's after Super Tuesday.

 

[HylianTom]

I hope Trump can work this into a comeback narrative. He has a rally in Milford, NH this evening. My hunch is that he starts his outright attack on Rubio tonight.

 

[Diablos]

Rubio on top for GOP nom on both PredictIt and PredictWise.

 

[Y2Kev]

Yeah he's getting it no question.

 

[benjipwns]

Speaking of debates, seems like the second tier debate will be a thing of the past now. (Until 2020.) With Huckabee out they can safely ignore Santorum. (If he even stays in.)

ABC won't be having one for their debate on Saturday. And their criteria would punt out Rand and Carly too.

 

[Makai]

PredictItGAF, has anyone dared look yet?

I lost $100 betting on Trump sweep. Site was basically down all caucus night so I couldn't sell.

Slightly tempered by my bet on Huckabee dropout.

 

[User 406]

168 days before the convention:

TRUMP IS ABSOLUTELY GOING TO BE THE NOMINEE

167 days before the convention:

RUBIO IS ABSOLUTELY GOING TO BE THE NOMINEE

Bonus:

WHY ARE A COUPLE URBAN PRECINCTS TAKING FOREVER TO REPORT IN THIS IS COMPLETELY UNPRECEDENTED


PoliGAF.

 

[benjipwns]

168 days before the convention:

TRUMP IS ABSOLUTELY GOING TO BE THE NOMINEE

167 days before the convention:

RUBIO IS ABSOLUTELY GOING TO BE THE NOMINEE

Bonus:

WHY ARE A COUPLE URBAN PRECINCTS TAKING FOREVER TO REPORT IN THIS IS COMPLETELY UNPRECEDENTED


PoliGAF.

Somebody is forgetting about Jeb!

The Bush and Clinton Dynasties!

 

[Makai]

Alright I need some Trump hopium

 

[Y2Kev]

168 days before the convention:

TRUMP IS ABSOLUTELY GOING TO BE THE NOMINEE

167 days before the convention:

RUBIO IS ABSOLUTELY GOING TO BE THE NOMINEE

Bonus:

WHY ARE A COUPLE URBAN PRECINCTS TAKING FOREVER TO REPORT IN THIS IS COMPLETELY UNPRECEDENTED


PoliGAF.

Hey I'm on team Jeb. Did you not see the boots ad?

 

[User 406]

Hey I'm on team Jeb. Did you not see the boots ad?

Those were some mighty high heels.

 

[The Technomancer]

Interesting piece that came across my Twitter feed
http://nymag.com/thecut/2016/02/what-hillary-learned-about-running-while-female.html

What was true in ’08 remains true this year. From her entrance into the campaign, Clinton has been tagged as unlikable, as the practical buzzkill, the boring one with the wonky facts and figures and experience who’s going to show up and tell you that your big plans are impossible, but that she’s thought of some smaller and more doable fixes. Meanwhile, Sanders, who entered the race shouting righteously and correctly about a system that’s broken, has, as his campaign has strengthened, become the unlikely vehicle of idealistic hopes and dreams for America — Free college! Free health care! A $15 minimum wage! The breakup of the big banks!

That hurts, and it falls into a very old, very well-worn gendered pattern, in which women — understanding that making promises they cannot back up will not get them taken seriously and that they must prove themselves extra-competent in order to be understood as basically competent — become the nose-to-the-grindstone wonks, easily compared to know-it-all bores like Tracy Flick and Hermione Granger. They’re the wet blankets, the ones all too acquainted with the limitations imposed by the world, and all too eager to explain their various ideas for working around them. Men, and especially white men, whose claims to public or political power are more easily understood, are permitted a slightly looser approach.

There’s been some talk about how a female candidate could never be as scruffy as Bernie Sanders, as uncombed and unkempt. A woman could never be as grumpy as Bernie, as left-leaning as Bernie, as uncooperative with party machinery as Bernie. And that stuff is true enough. But the bigger truth is that what Bernie does, to great acclaim, that Hillary Clinton could never do is make big promises of institutional overthrow, tug on our imaginative heartstrings by laying out a future that might not be grounded in reality, and urge a revolution.

Here is a truth about America: No one likes a woman who yells loudly about revolution.

 

[benjipwns]

Interesting piece that came across my Twitter feed
http://nymag.com/thecut/2016/02/what-hillary-learned-about-running-while-female.html

Elizabeth Warren seems to get away with most all of the non-appearance stuff other than the party machinery thing. Which makes sense considering she's actually a member of a party.

 

[Elaugaufein]

I also want to note I'm amused that Trump's Cruz birtherism backfired on him in a way that no one could have seen coming. Before it, he could have lost Iowa reasonably safely but it gave him a legit shot in the polls which means the defeat now effects his narrative. It's hilarious.

 

[Ignatz Mouse]

I lost $100 betting on Trump sweep. Site was basically down all caucus night so I couldn't sell.

Slightly tempered by my bet on Huckabee dropout.

I bet no on the sweep, but panicked a few days ago and sold at a slight loss.

Spoiler

I lost 54 cents, but I would have made 5 bucks if I stuck.

 

[Cesare Borgia]

Looking forward to reading some behind-the-scenes Trump articles today. I have no idea why he was this unprepared for Iowa. Is this truly a facade campaign, or did he simply not do his homework? Or am I over-analyzing the stupidity of a showman.

 

[Brinbe]

This next week will be fun
Now it's Marco Rubio vs the governors in N.H.

The volatile Republican primary moved overnight from Des Moines to Manchester, and Rubio heads into the Granite State today facing three governors - Chris Christie of New Jersey, John Kasich of Ohio of former Florida governor Jeb Bush of Florida - determined to take him down. New Hampshire has a track record for ignoring Iowa caucus results, and it's likely the final stand for the each of the governors aiming to finish stronger than Rubio and emerge as a viable alternative to Ted Cruz and Donald Trump.

“Rubio and Cruz have never managed a thing, and yet we are thinking of making the same mistake from a leadership perspective that Democrats made, and our country made, eight years ago,” Christie told a crowd in Hopkinville Monday.

Bush, campaigning in Manchester, similarly likened Rubio and Cruz to president Obama, calling them "back benchers that have never done anything of consequence in their lives.""They can give a great speech, but I think it's time we recognize that maybe what we need is someone who can lead, someone who has a proven record," Bush said.

In Iowa, Bush, Christie and Kasich combined received less than 7 percent of the vote, compared to 28 percent for Trump, 24 percent for Cruz, and 23 percent for Rubio. A super PAC helping Bush spent $14.9-million in Iowa TV ads, according to NBC, which comes to $2,884 per vote.

The goal of the governor vying to emerge as a top choice for mainstream Republicans is not necessarily to win New Hampshire, where Trump has big lead in the polls, but to finish ahead of Rubio. One key obstacle, however, could be convincing New Hampshire voters they are still contenders.

"I like Jeb Bush, and I would love to support him. I voted for his father and for his brother, but I don't want to waste my vote," Barbara Child, a retired nurse in Manchester said.

Allies of the 44-year-old Florida senator want supporters of the more mainstream governor candidates to unite behind him as the candidate best equipped to unite the party and go on to win the

general election. That message helped him in Iowa, where entrance polls for the news networks found Rubio the strong favorite among caucus-goers most concerned about electability. He won 43 percent among voters who said winning the general election was the top quality they wanted in a candidate.

Marco's gonna get beat the fuck down from all sides.
Also, Rubio+Rino is a fun search on twitter.

 

[benjipwns]

Looking forward to reading some behind-the-scenes Trump articles today. I have no idea why he was this unprepared for Iowa. Is this truly a facade campaign, or did he simply not do his homework? Or am I over-analyzing the stupidity of a showman.

I think it's more that he's trying to intentionally run a facade campaign rather than doing the "political" stuff which costs time/resources that may amount to less than they're worth. See: Jeb.

He shot so high in the polls so fast and then stayed there despite so many would be blows that he may have come to believe they could just ride it out on free media.

I should write the Moneyball for Presidential elections. After inventing public polimetrics.

 

[thefro]

Is Drudge even a thing for anyone anymore?

Still gets a ton of hits.

I think it's a pretty good resource to see what folks on the right are saying/will say later today.

 

[Makai]

 

[benjipwns]

Still gets a ton of hits.

I think it's a pretty good resource to see what folks on the right are saying/will say later today.

Yeah, and it's more readable than Breitbart or The Blaze for the same content.

 

[Teggy]

graph

This would be more interesting if it included any post-Iowa polling.

 

[StopMakingSense]

Looking forward to reading some behind-the-scenes Trump articles today. I have no idea why he was this unprepared for Iowa. Is this truly a facade campaign, or did he simply not do his homework? Or am I over-analyzing the stupidity of a showman.

His strategy of spending as little money as possible is just poor for caucus results.

 

[HylianTom]

I'm curious to know how much NH can move in 7 days.

 

[tmarg]

Cruz's vote was evangelicals. It could also be anti-establishment I guess.

They made up like two thirds of the voters and he took like a third of them.

I think a lot of evangelicals are anti-establishment. They are extreme right on social issues, and have been taking Ls for a while now while the establishment talks about tax cuts.

 

[RustyNails]

Iowa at least proved that the Empire withstood the rebel attacks. Bernie needed to decimate Hillary in order to build the narrative. Trump needed to clinch victory to prove he is the real deal.

 

[Elaugaufein]

I think a lot of evangelicals are anti-establishment. They are extreme right on social issues, and have been taking Ls for a while now while the establishment talks about tax cuts.

IIRC There's a reasonable chunk of the Evangelical block that's pretty sceptical of Establishment positions generally only being in it for the social issues. A lot of these people generally perceive themselves as being full of Christian charity and aren't exactly enthusiasric about either super laissez faire capitalism or war mongering or being horrrible to poor people. I mean some of them obviously are which is how you get the Prosperity Gospel / Supply Side Jesus. Evangelical Conservatives are a weird block.

 

[benjipwns]

Abortion. Both parties have a important block for which this is all that matters.

And it's not necessarily in terms of votes, but in terms of resources: money, people, GOTV operations, etc.

 

[Four_Chamber]

I want Trump to post stuff on Twitter...today's not as fun

 

[benjipwns]

What if the election was Cruz (R) v. Sanders (D) v. Trump (I) v. Bloomberg (I) v. Johnson (L) v. Stein (G) ...

A man can dream.

 

[gutter_trash]

I think a lot of evangelicals are anti-establishment. They are extreme right on social issues, and have been taking Ls for a while now while the establishment talks about tax cuts.

I think of Evangelicals as End of Days Doomsday nutjobs