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PoliGAF 2015-2016 |OT3| If someone named PhoenixDark leaves your party, call the cops

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P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
thefro said:
Cruz & Rubio will both get a bump in New Hampshire, Trump will probably go down a bit.

Trump should be back on the upswing by the time the actual vote happens there, if polls go by their typical patterns.
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Agreed, and "a bit" isn't going to swing 15-25 points in a week, IMO.
 
B

Brinbe

Member
Christie already slamming Rubio hahaha
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...tie-belittles-rubio-as-the-boy-in-the-bubble/

New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie launched a fresh and sharply personal broadside here Tuesday against opponent Marco Rubio, charging that the Florida senator who surged to a strong third-place finish in Monday’s Iowa Republican caucuses was “the boy in the bubble.”

Christie questioned Rubio’s toughness, intelligence and even his manhood, telling reporters that he thought Rubio was running a campaign that is “constantly scripted” by his handlers while ducking tough questions about his record from journalists and New Hampshire voters.

“Maybe he’ll do more than 40 minutes on a little stage telling everybody his canned speech that he’s memorized,” Christie told reporters. “This isn’t a student council election, everybody. This is an election for president of the United States. Let’s get the boy in the bubble out of the bubble and let’s see him play for the next week in New Hampshire. I’m ready to play, and I hope he is.”
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And this is just the beginning... oh boy.
 
P

PBY

Banned
Plinko said:
Agreed, and "a bit" isn't going to swing 15-25 points in a week, IMO.
Click to expand...

The issue isn't how he's polling. I don't think the polls will change that much.

The issue is how the polling will translate to actual votes. I don't think that NH will pose as much issues as Iowa's caucuses, but that's still a VERY real issue. We have no real sense of how 'real' the polling is as to actual voters.
 
M

Makai

Member
@realDonaldTrump Because I was told I could not do well in Iowa, I spent very little there - a fraction of Cruz & Rubio. Came in a strong second. Great honor

@realDonaldTrump The media has not covered my long-shot great finish in Iowa fairly. Brought in record voters and got second highest vote total in history!
 
P

PBY

Banned
Makai said:
@realDonaldTrump Because I was told I could not do well in Iowa, I spent very little there - a fraction of Cruz & Rubio. Came in a strong second. Great honor
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I do think he's kinda right regarding the media. By all accounts is a really strong finish for him in Iowa - the polls last week just fucked him by shifting expectations.
 
benjipwns

benjipwns

Banned
PBY said:
The issue isn't how he's polling. I don't think the polls will change that much.

The issue is how the polling will translate to actual votes. I don't think that NH will pose as much issues as Iowa's caucuses, but that's still a VERY real issue. We have no real sense of how 'real' the polling is as to actual voters.
Click to expand...
That is the thing, we're not going to see it in the polling because of the short time frame. Even any done that last weekend.

We were able to see Rubio's rise (and Trump's drop from a week prior) because there was still time before the voting. Same reason we could start to see Santorum's surge just beforehand in 2012.
 
M

Makai

Member
@realDonaldTrump I will be talking about my wonderful experience in Iowa and the simultaneous unfair treatment by the media-later in New Hampshire. Big crowd
 
V

Veritigo_X

Member
Ed O'Keefe @edatpost
"I want to be your first," Bush awkwardly tells a college kid who said he will be a first-time voter.
Click to expand...

Why can't this guy be the nominee?

Jack Remington said:
I went from +600 to -300 entirely on Rubio surges and Trump drops in various states and R Nom. It's a good opportunity to clean up when Trump wins NH in a week. After that I'll probably cash out most positions. People there are too irrational.
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Ouch! Really glad I didn't go the high roller route. $100 was plenty for me, down $20 now :( Gotta just remember the good days when I was up $100....
 
P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
PBY said:
The issue isn't how he's polling. I don't think the polls will change that much.

The issue is how the polling will translate to actual votes. I don't think that NH will pose as much issues as Iowa's caucuses, but that's still a VERY real issue. We have no real sense of how 'real' the polling is as to actual voters.
Click to expand...

I understand that--if you actually looked at Iowa's polling numbers when that was taken into account, Cruz was winning all along.

My question is: do we have those likely voter polls from other states?
 
M

Makai

Member
@realDonaldTrump I don't believe I have been given any credit by the voters for self-funding my campaign, the only one. I will keep doing, but not worth it!
 
I

Ignatz Mouse

Banned
Jack Remington said:
I went from +600 to -300 entirely on Rubio surges and Trump drops in various states and R Nom. It's a good opportunity to clean up when Trump wins NH in a week. After that I'll probably cash out most positions. People there are too irrational.
Click to expand...

You were up 600 and down 300 now?

You are a braver man than I, sir.
 
M

Makai

Member
Jack Remington said:
I went from +600 to -300 entirely on Rubio surges and Trump drops in various states and R Nom. It's a good opportunity to clean up when Trump wins NH in a week. After that I'll probably cash out most positions. People there are too irrational.
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If the market is irrational, you should stay in. Value gambling.
 
T

Teggy

Member
Trump keeps playing the victim. I have to feel people are going to start getting sick of that coming from a supposed "winner".
 
P

PBY

Banned
Plinko said:
I understand that--if you actually looked at Iowa's polling numbers when that was taken into account, Cruz was winning all along.

My question is: do we have those likely voter polls from other states?
Click to expand...

We do, but your premise is wrong. We had likely voters polling indicating that Trump would win in Iowa. Trump even was ahead in the Selzer poll.
 
P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Wow, is Ted Cruz a scumbag:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/vi...n_carson_is_going_home_not_a_dirty_trick.html

Apparently Cruz had staffers going to every caucus and telling people Carson was dropping out and to give your vote to Cruz. Campaign staffer denies it but people on the ground are saying it was true.

PBY said:
We do, but your premise is wrong. We had likely voters polling indicating that Trump would win in Iowa. Trump even was ahead in the Selzer poll.
Click to expand...

I'm fairly certain likely caucuser polls had Cruz ahead.
 
P

PBY

Banned
Plinko said:
Wow, is Ted Cruz a scumbag:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/vi...n_carson_is_going_home_not_a_dirty_trick.html

Apparently Cruz had staffers going to every caucus and telling people Carson was dropping out and to give your vote to Cruz.



I'm fairly certain likely caucuser polls had Cruz ahead.
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Look at the polling from last week:
http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-iowa-presidential-republican-caucus

A lot of those polls were registered Rs and likely voters.
 
C

Cybit

FGC Waterboy
Elaugaufein said:
IIRC There's a reasonable chunk of the Evangelical block that's pretty sceptical of Establishment positions generally only being in it for the social issues. A lot of these people generally perceive themselves as being full of Christian charity and aren't exactly enthusiasric about either super laissez faire capitalism or war mongering or being horrrible to poor people. I mean some of them obviously are which is how you get the Prosperity Gospel / Supply Side Jesus. Evangelical Conservatives are a weird block.
Click to expand...

Part of it is that they supported GWB and now feel kind of used for doing so (since GWB promised to do all these evangelical Christian things...and then did none). So they don't trust the GOP establishment any more, and fired back with the Tea Party.

The narratives going into and coming out of NH are going to be fascinating.

If Trump wins NH and Rubio comes second, then it turns into what is probably a three way race between Cruz, Trump, and Rubio. This is a good case scenario for the GOP, as a distant third (or fourth) Cruz might knock off his momentum enough, and if Rubio can stay 2nd in the upcoming states, Cruz goes away (Iowa is probably one of Cruz' best states. Had Cruz and Trump switched percentages in Iowa, Cruz would be done).

If Rubio wins NH, this nomination race is probably over. Nate Silver laughs at everyone. Best case scenario for the GOP. They can immediately focus all of their attention at Clinton (barring a major Sanders upset in the South) and get months and months of pounding in, while Clinton is potentially stuck in a dogfight with Sanders.

Trump wins NH, Kasich / Christie come in 2nd, Cruz comes in 3rd, Rubio comes in 4th - worst case scenario for the GOP. Trump, Cruz, Rubio, and 2nd place all stay in the race, and the beatings continue. Trump and Cruz keep taking victories while the establishment is stuck trying to coalesce around a single member.

Cruz wins NH, Trump 2nd, Establishment 3rd - Trump probably sticks it out for SC & Nevada, but if he loses SC and Nevada, it turns into Cruz vs Establishment. I think establishment, when not having to deal with Trump, can turn on Cruz and use the endorsements to stop Cruz.

The GOP's hope is that it is down to two candidates by the time Nevada / SC roll around; and one of the candidates is Rubio / Kasich / Christie / Bush.

As for Dems - if Sanders wins big, the race continues. If Clinton wins / ends up within 4-5 points...I think Sanders is done for.
 
C

Cesare Borgia

Banned
T

tmarg

Member
Basically every poll uses "likely voters", but they vary widely in how they define that term. Selzer, for example, simply asks the voters how likely they are to vote, which tends to mean over-representing. Others may, for example, require the voter to name where their polling place is.

Still, I don't know that that is the cause of the discrepancy between the polls and the outcome. There was always going to be significant pressure on establishment voters to band behind one candidate, and Trump's decision to skip the debate likely hurt him significantly.
 
benjipwns

benjipwns

Banned
Cybit said:
If Trump wins NH and Rubio comes second, then it turns into what is probably a three way race between Cruz, Trump, and Rubio. This is a good case scenario for the GOP, as a distant third (or fourth) Cruz might knock off his momentum enough, and if Rubio can stay 2nd in the upcoming states, Cruz goes away (Iowa is probably one of Cruz' best states. Had Cruz and Trump switched percentages in Iowa, Cruz would be done).

If Rubio wins NH, this nomination race is probably over. Nate Silver laughs at everyone. Best case scenario for the GOP. They can immediately focus all of their attention at Clinton (barring a major Sanders upset in the South) and get months and months of pounding in, while Clinton is potentially stuck in a dogfight with Sanders.

...

The GOP's hope is that it is down to two candidates by the time Nevada / SC roll around; and one of the candidates is Rubio / Kasich / Christie / Bush.

As for Dems - if Sanders wins big, the race continues. If Clinton wins / ends up within 4-5 points...I think Sanders is done for.
Click to expand...
The most likely outcome is that both races will be over by March 16th.
 
T

tmarg

Member
Cybit said:
Trump wins NH, Kasich / Christie come in 2nd, Cruz comes in 3rd, Rubio comes in 4th - worst case scenario for the GOP. Trump, Cruz, Rubio, and 2nd place all stay in the race, and the beatings continue. Trump and Cruz keep taking victories while the establishment is stuck trying to coalesce around a single member.
Click to expand...

I have no idea where you got this from, aren't Kasich and Christie around 2%? I'd think the most likely scenario, based on what we saw in Iowa, is Trump 1, Cruz 2, Rubio 3. I fully expect the establishment vote to consolidate on Rubio at this point, I just don't know how much that is worth.
 
E

East Lake

Member
One of the recent Silver articles sorta explains Iowa and the problems polling it.

All right, not absolutely anything could happen. Martin O’Malley is not going to win the Democratic caucuses. Donald Trump will probably not finish behind Carly Fiorina.

But could Marco Rubio win the Iowa caucuses despite not having led a single poll there? Sure. Rick Santorum did that exact thing four years ago.

Could Trump slip all the way to third place? Entirely plausible. But he could also get upwards of 40 percent of the vote and double his nearest rival’s total.

Ben Carson in second place? Rand Paul in third? The odds are against it — but equally strange things have happened in Iowa before.
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Historically, the average error of late polls in presidential general elections is about 3.5 percentage points.1 By contrast, the average polling error associated with presidential primaries is more like 8 percentage points, more than twice as high.

So imagine that we have a forecast showing Trump 4 percentage points ahead of Ted Cruz in some state. If Trump wins by 12 points instead, or Cruz wins by 4, the pollsters would be pilloried, and we’d come in for our share of flak too. But that’s what an 8-point error looks like, and 8-point errors happen fairly often in primaries and caucuses.
Click to expand...

But if primaries and caucuses are always tough for pollsters, some are even harder than others. This is something we’ve studied extensively too. Historically, the polling error has been higher when:

*A state holds a caucus instead of a primary.

*It’s early in the nomination calendar rather than later. (Perhaps because pollsters haven’t yet had a chance to learn from their mistakes.)

*There are more candidates running. (See above for why this matters.)

You’ll note that the first two circumstances apply in the Democratic caucuses tonight, and all three do for Republicans. Iowa is a caucus state, and it’s the first state to vote. And there are still a huge number of candidates on the GOP side. In our polling average, candidates other than Trump, Cruz and Rubio have a collective 28 percent of the vote, while another 3 percent or 4 percent of voters still say they’re undecided. That’s almost a third of the vote that could easily enough recirculate to one of the front-runners.

Put another way, the uncertainty associated with forecasting tonight’s Iowa Republican caucus is about as high as it gets in a major American election. Even Ann Selzer, the best pollster in the country, could have a rough night.
Click to expand...
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/iowa-is-the-hardest-state-to-poll/
 
T

Teggy

Member
DWS thanks O'Malley for getting out of the race his service.

Teggy --

If you want to see fortitude, commitment, and a passion for tackling the issues facing our country and being on the front lines of change, look no further than Governor Martin O'Malley.

As he suspends his presidential campaign, I want to take a minute to thank him for his contributions to our party and this primary race -- and I hope you will, too.

Throughout this hard-fought campaign, Gov. O'Malley has shown us all what it means to be a proud Democrat. On climate change, gun control, immigration, affordable education, and combatting racial injustice -- we are incredibly fortunate to have someone on our team who knows that Democratic values are American values, and who will never back down when our progress is challenged or undermined. It means so much to know that he'll continue to be a strong and sensible voice for our party for the rest of this election and beyond.

Sign your name now to join me in letting Martin O'Malley know just how much we appreciate his service to the Democratic Party and our country:

http://my.democrats.org/Thank-You-Martin

Thanks, Teggy.

Debbie

Debbie Wasserman Schultz
Chair
Democratic National Committee
Click to expand...
 
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