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PoliGAF 2015-2016 |OT3| If someone named PhoenixDark leaves your party, call the cops
- Thread starter Diablos
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User 463088
Banned
Did Jeb! even give a speech tonight? I didn't see it covered on CNN/MSNBC or anything. I mean....I'm not sure his momma would have shown up for it, but....still. Did he?
I'm sure there were like 3 or 4 trust fund Frat boys who worked on his campaign and were heartbroken he didn't win.
I'm sure there were like 3 or 4 trust fund Frat boys who worked on his campaign and were heartbroken he didn't win.
benjipwns
Banned
BUT THE POLLING
shinra-bansho
Member
It's possible that Trump looming large and being somewhat general election toxic, probably freed people to think "Screw it, we'll win whoever we pick." So if there's any consolation to Rubiomentum for $hillaries, his rise might lead to a reassessment of priorities.
Coriolanus
Banned
Hills as vp. Ta-daaaa!
Then you just gotta wait until she finda a way to kill him.
Seeing first hand why blue dogs used to be so successful.
QuiteWhittle
Member
I doubt Sanders would get clobbered like that. He's still going to get over 200 EVs.
VendettaRed07
Member
I wouldn't go that far. Rubio is no Reagan by any stretch and Bernie has a lot more things in his favor than Mondale did. Biggest one being that the country isn't nearly as conservative as it was 36 years ago
I think Bernie would probably lose but there's still a chance he would win. But obviously the odds on that make me feel like it's an unecessary risk.
Joe Shlabotnik
Banned
Rubio could still quite easily get killed over immigration by... pretty much everyone running. Also watch for the deer-in-the-headlights look if he really starts to turn into the party golden boy.
Something magical kind of did happen. Hillary and Sanders basically canceled each other out and Rubio is gaining traction fast. This could completely change the dynamic in NH and set up Rubio for a win, or second place with Trump falling to third.
SC Isn't a swing state the last time I chceked. IA is.
Anyone even remotely advocating for a Sanders nomination being safe up against the GOP, particularly Rubio, is not thinking this through. It will definitely smell like Mondale vs. Reagan. Would the loss be as profound for Sanders? Probably not due to demographics changes. But there is no fucking way Bernie is a safe bet for winning the GE. Not even close.
Last night was great for the GOP and bad for Democrats. I'm growing concerned that the Democratic voterbase (at least half of them) are failing to see the big picture. Bernie supporters remind me of a key sect of Obama's base that seem to be under some kind of spell and thus have lost all of their common sense as they blindly follow Bernie and forget about outside factors (i.e. what matters, winning the White House).
btw if Bernie comes out as an atheist/agnostic soon then he's even dumber than I thought when it comes to campaigning. I am not religious myself but he's going to give the GOP a huge gift if he does that.
I really wish he would get out of the way. The party doesn't want him, he can't win, all he's doing is providing false hope to young people because he simply is not Presidential material.
And if Trump feels like the party is getting too behind someone not named Trump, he might flip the table over and run third party.
VendettaRed07
Member
POS Trump better start spending his damn money on stuff, because now with all these results coming in the media isn't going to do his job for him nearly as much anymore and half assing it isn't going to work
scooby dooby gloopy gooby, we're so fucked
Oh yeah?
Checkmate liberals.
Politico ran a story (titled Donald Trump, 2016's first loser lol) that basically implies Trump cheaped out big time in Iowa.
Snowman Prophet of Doom
Member
The thing is, Trump got 24% in Iowa seemingly without having any kind of real ground game. He only finished 3% behind a guy who is tailor-made for the state. That's not really that shabby, and it suggests to me he could be pretty formidable if he starts upping his spending significantly in subsequent states, which he probably will unless he really doesn't give a shit about being President and has just been doing this as some kind of weird publicity stunt for nothing.
FloydtheFathead
Member
Coriolanus
Banned
True, that's why I'm a student posting my stupid fantasies on the internet and not Hillary's campaign strategist
User 463088
Banned
She would need a scotch (or six) in her hand to make this ad work and appear realistic.
Joe Shlabotnik
Banned
"Hello, I'm going door-to-door on behalf of Hillary Clinton"
I feel like there exists the potential for an amazing ad combining these ideas.
Yeah. The panic here is really weird. The establishment candidates lost by a more than 2-1 margin, and Rubio took third in a caucus system that effectively forced establishment votes to consolidate behind him because their other candidates wouldn't meet the 15% threshold.
Until Rubio shows that he can convert the voters who consider nominating an outsider to be their highest priority, I don't see a path to victory for him.
Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Seriously, the Diablosing in this thread is insane. Trump did cheap out on Iowa. Why? He wasn't expected to compete here from the beginning. It was a miracle he got second place in that state.
Sure, if Trump drops like 25 points in a week and loses New Hampshire, then start freaking out. At this point, though? Come on.
As tmarg said above, think about the establishment vote--it almost ALL went to him. He still got third. You really think if Trump drops out, Rubio gets his voters? Seriously?
Hey, that's all Politico, I still think Trump has it over on Rubio.
People are diablosing because he underperformed and Rubio seriously over performed. Now there are legitimate questions about the firmness of Trump's support but more importantly whether or not a rapid congealing of the old farts behind Rubio will render trump a loser.
Seltzer blew ass last night and that's fine, but Rubio seriously sent a message last night and people should be afraid.
Maybe it won't matter in NH because all of the losers are still present, but in NV, SC, Rubio will basically pick up 10% of the vote. If you believe trumps support is weak, then that is a concern.
Not to mention media spin over the next week will be brutal to trump.
Seltzer blew ass last night and that's fine, but Rubio seriously sent a message last night and people should be afraid.
Maybe it won't matter in NH because all of the losers are still present, but in NV, SC, Rubio will basically pick up 10% of the vote. If you believe trumps support is weak, then that is a concern.
Not to mention media spin over the next week will be brutal to trump.
User 463088
Banned
Yes she did.
She'll end up with one more hard delegate than Bernie. Maybe two, but I think one when it's all said and done.
benjipwns
Banned
There was no threshold. Carson and Rand Paul are getting delegates.
User 463088
Banned
I'm still bitter about 2008, so I'll give them the benefit of the doubt. I don't like caucuses. It's not that their undemocratic, but it adds a layer of complexity to voting. It's not fair to those who have to work, or can only find transportation at specific times. I would love to see them all go away and be replaced with a primary. I feel it's just more fair.
Even if we assume that a Trump collapse is imminent (which I don't, but whatever), you still have to explain how all his voters end up supporting Rubio, the republican candidate they are the least likely to line up behind, with the possible exception of JEB.
I agree, but it was no secret they didn't go away in 2016 and Hillary's campaign knew they had to game the caucus system just like Obama did. Any Bernie fans taken by surprise and upset have only themselves to blame. This info has been out there. For years.
Entrance polling in Iowa showed a lot of former Trump supporters ended up going to Rubio in the end.
Yeah the media has me shook.
The narrative is all that Trump is a huge loser. Questioning his support and organization.
This is a massive L brehs.
shinra-bansho
Member
There isn't a threshold for the Republican field from memory? The others were just losers because they're sucky losers.
Yeah, no threshold. Rand and Jeb got a delegate.
It's the Santorum effect. The media have basically written off Iowa's first choice in the republican race, because their first choice is usually insane. Iowa's purpose is now to judge the establishment candidates strength and give them the electability platform for the following states.
Winning Iowa doesn't matter on the R side, it's all about expectations.
They're throwing a wrench into everything. I have such a bad feeling about this. Bernie is in it for the long haul.
All the more reason why I wish Biden would have run. Even if he would have lost in the end he would have pushed Bernie to third most likely.
Drudge is pushing the narrative that Clinton only won because of the coin flips.
I'd say, the real winner of the Iowa caucus is Jim Gilmore. He said he would count even one vote for him as a victory, so Jim Gilmore actually won more times than any other candidate!
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