He couldn't win in what should be his third best state. That's bad. Full sopt.
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PoliGAF 2015-2016 |OT3| If someone named PhoenixDark leaves your party, call the cops
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He couldn't win in what should be his third best state. That's bad. Full sopt.
2016 US Election Cinematic Universe
Roland_Gunner
Member
The argument is that a month ago Sanders was way behind in Iowa so this establishes that he can close the gap in other states. I don't completely buy it but its clear that HRC isn't connecting to younger white voters. She needs to address this ahead of the general.
And_Gignac
Member
Spider from Mars
tap that thorax
So a victory in her 3rd worst state is half-assed? Optics is everything at this point, and her not losing the first 2 primaries is a good thing for her. She should cruise through after a loss in New Hampshire and have things well in hand after Super Tuesday.
Coriolanus
Banned
She couldn't bring out a commanding lead over fauxcrat Stalin in a state in which she was already experienced, running with the best team in the country, oodles of money and with a party fully backing her. Is this the beginning of the fall?
I mean, you know which way the media will opt to cover this. It has already started, after all.
Use loaded dice.
OrangeGrayBlue
Member
I hesitate to say anything with certainty at this point. If you had told me yesterday that Ted Cruz would win Iowa decisively with more votes than any republican candidate ever, I wouldn't have bought it. I think it's a little foolish to treat any upcoming primary/caucus as a foregone conclusion.
Four_Chamber
Member
Sanders couldn't beat her in one of the three states that was cherry picked for him- open caucus, lily white state with a high number of white liberal voters. And he still didn't get the decisive win he needed. He only had ~40% first time caucus goers despite spending a ton of time there.
Doesn't sound like a revolution to me.
Bernie may hang around after Super Tuesday but winning 18 year old white liberal voters isn't going to get you nominated. I agree Hillary needs to court this demographic but its not one that seems to want to come out to vote by and large.
metalslimer
Member
And to be honest I still don't see how minority voters would swing to Bernie even with a win in Iowa.
And_Gignac
Member
Ivs you used to be on our side. What happened? When did the bern within you extinguish?
RastaMentality
Banned
Cruz said Reagan didn't have any consultants giving him talking points back in 1980 lol. "Speaking from the heart"
gotta chase that dead heat narrative somehow.
I think they know sanders Rubio would be pretty bad for business LOL.
Wolf Blitzer must have started cumming uncontrollably when he saw how close last night was getting.
benjipwns
Banned
That's a Shrillary move, like with the coins. Bernie's too honest for that, he'd never betray us, we're practically family.
RustyNails
Member
Iowa heavily favors Bernie demographics. Not a whole lot of blacks, Latinos and immigrants there and its a closed system to boot. Hillary squeeking a win there means he's toast.
Roland_Gunner
Member
Robert Costa said:
I know Trump has said nice things about Brown in the past but this is crazy - crazy. Great way to bounce back from Iowa.
Holy shit, Trump is going all in.
PantherLotus
Professional Schmuck
I can't keep up with this thread -- going like 2 pages per hour now -- but wanted to note I think Trump polling vs. reality might be a real thing to watch over the next few primaries. Could be seeing stated wisdom losing to pragmatism.
I dunno, carry on.
I dunno, carry on.
Agreed.
As a Hillary supporter, here are my takeaways from the night:
1. Bernie can close the gap largely from his enthusiastic supporters. No matter how much I want to believe otherwise, the man took a 10 - 15 point deficit last month and turned it into a statistical dead heat. Regardless of demographics, he will be able to do it in other states.
2. Bernie can fundraise like Obama. $20 million in less than a month is absolutely insane. Yes, Hillary has her SuperPACs and her campaign is a juggernaut as well, but Bernie will be able to grow his campaign infrastructure like crazy at that rate. Factor in the fact that Hillary has more maxed out donors than Bernie and she should be nervous about the financial situation going forward.
3. Hillary needs to figure out how to appeal to younger voters. It doesn't have to be during the primary, but she needs to start thinking about how to treat Bernie supporters the same way Obama managed the fall of Clinton in 08. If the race gets more divisive and she further alienates Bernie's crowd, I could absolutely see it coming back to haunt her in the general.
4. Bernie should also be worried about his demographic chances going forward. Getting to a tie from such a massive deficit is certainly impressive, but he still lost in his third most favorable state. Last night proved that this is not going to be 2008 all over again and although I don't think Hillary should bring this up as an attack, Bernie's entire argument about starting a political revolution just got a hard dose of reality last night: Hillary is popular in the party and his younger voters didn't necessarily turnout to the extent he had hoped for. If he can't get it done in IA, he is going to be boned going into the south.
5. Hillary needs to get her email situation in order. I am with everyone else in thinking that this is a bullshit "BENGHAZI" type scenario, but it is starting to fester. My mom is the definition of an independent voter who is largely swayed by persona rather than policy. She supported Bush in 00, 04, Obama in 08, Romney in 12, and is now enamored with Bernie. She is in the camp that she'd rather vote for Trump over Hillary if she beats Bernie because of her perception of this email scandal. The way CNN and especially Fox News is covering the story, I fear that they will start to make a serious dent in independent minded voters. The only way this gets put to rest is if the FBI comes out with a statement that she did nothing wrong, but even I am starting to doubt that that will happen. Hillary needs to get her answer sorted before it is too late.
I think Bernie will enjoy a comfortable victory in NH next week that should lift the sails of the Bernie supporters while Clinton starts to focus further on SC and NV.
Whew! Then again, Palin, Branstad, and Dole didn't do help Trump in Iowa :{
Yoda
Member
Iowa is hard to predict because of the caucus process, the polls weren't wildly off and even if NH is over-sampling for Trump, it isn't by 15+ points. I'd wager 3rd place being treated as if it were 1st place by the media stems from the same line of thinking that causes them to write off Trump every time he insults someone.
Because I was torn between the two candidates so I decided on electability, and then got harassed on twitter which solidified my support for Hillary. Which isn't the most logical reason for supporting someone, but that's where I am.
ALSO, FUCKING LOL:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...e-trump/?postshare=4181454438538743&tid=ss_tw
Aaron Strife
Banned
Scott seems like a good get for Trump.
C'mon PredictIt, stabilize.
C'mon PredictIt, stabilize.
I want a miniseries in the worst way. Put it on Amazon, Netflix, HBO.. just do it justice. This is entertaining, multi-multi-multi-layered material.
Trump getting an opportunistic carpetbagger to endorse. I guess that's good for him?
I'm gonna ride or die this train. If I sold now I still make a profit, but fuck it!
He's expected to win by double digits. He's got nearly 20 points on Clinton in the RCP aggregate. If that doesn't hold and she shaves it down to single digits...
I'm a little more pessimistic, I think Bernie takes NH 60-40. He's not going to get a more favorable state until Vermont.
Yoda
Member
Younger voters of nearly all demographics are breaking towards Sanders; Hillary's main issue is that her argument boils down to:
"I have the best resume, and political agility (willing to change positions for political gain) so I should be the nominee."
It's not hard to understand why no one is excited about her, essentially liberals are settling because she wouldn't be as bad as a Republican... But that's fundamentally means you aren't voting FOR something instead you're voting top STOP something. "I'll stop Antonin Scalia Jr. from getting on the SCOTUS and instead appoint a judge who is a liberal on social issues, but who leans right on economic issues!"
60-40? Has any Democrat did that in the last 40 years?
When's the last time we had a 2-man race at this point with one of the candidates being from New England?
benjipwns
Banned
2012:
Code:
Barack Obama 49,080 80.91% 10
Ron Paul 2,289 3.77% -
Mitt Romney 1,814 2.99% -
Jon Huntsman 1,238 2.04% -
Ed Cowan 945 1.56% -
Vermin Supreme 833 1.37% -QuiteWhittle
Member
Why would she choose a judge who leans right on economic issues?
Retromelon
Member
Melkr u got owned so hard in the ot thread. I wept
Your own gif got turned against you
Gore Vs Bradley? but he was from NJ.
Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
At this rate, in 20 years they will be giving him credit for every positive American event since 1776. Unreal.
It is. That is going to help him.
Ignatz Mouse
Banned
The caucus thread (and the internet I general) depresses me, with people so invested in winning "the narrative" and a single delegate that they are willing to push this coingate nonsense, or run down Bernie. Effectively negatively campaigning for the GOP.
Ignatz Mouse
Banned
Don't you know she's a secret Republican, barely more progressive than the GOP candidates!
This just isn't true.
18-24 Whites are just breaking to him so heavily that it skews the entire demo when you look at it through the lens of age alone. Hillary is winning Obama voters and is doing much better outside of the 18-24 age group.
benjipwns
Banned
1992: H.W. Bush vs. Pat Buchanan
And a three way:
1980: Carter vs. Kennedy vs. Jerry Brown
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