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PoliGAF 2015-2016 |OT3| If someone named PhoenixDark leaves your party, call the cops

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Predictit is about to pay out, here's how I plan to use the funds:

Wait until after NH, when HRC shares should be depressed, and then put the winnings on her. Then after Super Tuesday, when they will likely bounce, pull them out. Or any other hearty bounce, really.
 

Makai

Member
Predictit is about to pay out, here's how I plan to use the funds:

Wait until after NH, when HRC shares should be depressed, and then put the winnings on her. Then after Super Tuesday, when they will likely bounce, pull them out. Or any other hearty bounce, really.
It's already priced in that Bernie wins NH. Buy now.
 
Melkr u got owned so hard in the ot thread. I wept
Your own gif got turned against you

I will CLAP BACK during Nevada, you´ll see.


This just isn't true.



18-24 Whites are just breaking to him so heavily that it skews the entire demo when you look at it through the lens of age alone. Hillary is winning Obama voters and is doing much better outside of the 18-24 age group.

Are hispanics white now? Even with younger blacks he has a sizeable portion of support. This isnt a men vs women or minorities vs whites contest, its a young, unapologetic liberals vs old, centrist democrats.

Those are inspiring numbers for Sanders in Nevada.
 
This just isn't true.



18-24 Whites are just breaking to him so heavily that it skews the entire demo when you look at it through the lens of age alone. Hillary is winning Obama voters and is doing much better outside of the 18-24 age group.
It would be helpful to have historic turnout for each demo and their voteshare of the pie. Another way to frame this is that Bernie heavily relies on a demo that almost never shows up to polls. Obama had this problem, but he overcame this deficit by building his multi-racial coalition which though small, is suitably reliable.

It's a long term project which you cant build overnight.
 

User 406

Banned
I think I've seen about a bazillion forms and surveys with "non-Hispanic white" as one of the choices, but few people seem to get the implication.
 

teiresias

Member
yup. hence:

I don't get the problem really. Having a good organization and operation has always been important, and as polarization continues to create more steadfast right/left voter bases they will only grow more so.

Why isn't the converse discussed, that Sanders doesn't apparently have the organization and operations processes to actually bring to fruition this revolution his personality is supposed to create. If he couldn't win one of these states favorable to him it's not a good look for his organization in the GE regardless.
 
Welp, looks like I was right once again!

Just a heads, the GOP polling is likely to be off for numerous reasons.

1. We don't know if Trump's supporters will show up

2. There's 2 types of undecides. The kind that either won't admit they support Trump or want to make sure he doesn't implode before they support him. The other kind is someone who refuses to vote for Trump but has been patiently waiting to see who the best option to defeat him is.

3. The lesser candidates are likely to lose votes as people start to think a little more rationally. A vote for Fiorina is a wasted vote, so why bother? These guys will go somewhere else. Will it be Trump or not-Trump? I don't know.

I'm not arguing that Trump's numbers are too high or too low. I think it's Trump or Cruz. I think Cruz still has an avenue to win. But what I question is how much the results will look like the polls (the order may be right but the differences will be different IMO). It's impossible to guess the outcome because of how many variables are at stake.

The Dem side is a bit more reliable. I think the polling is probably pretty accurate and only turnout will be the variable.

Should be interesting, that's for sure.


What I hinted might happen, did.

The non-evangelical voters mostly consolidated their not-Trump not-Cruz votes into one candidate and that was Rubio. The undecideds broke for Rubio.

This was something I kind of expected. If you supported Trump, you probably already supported Trump. If not, you were waiting for the best option that also wasn't Cruz and that was Rubio.

The polling missed the mark on the evangelical turnout which is what propelled Cruz to vicotry.

But it wasn't all bad for Trump. He still came in 2nd in a state he shouldn't have won. His voters did mostly turn out, they just got dwarfed by the evangelicals coming out in full force.

Rubio obviously had a good night but he didn't finish in 2nd, which would have changed things drastically. Of course, the media might play it otherwise...sigh. But he did what he had to do to be a real player. But he hasn't won shit, yet. If he comes in 3rd in NH, Iowa will be forgotten. If Cruz gets an Iowa bounce here, and Trump maintains a win, Rubio could be screwed.

On the Dem side, it played out just like i thought. Turnout was up, but not up enough, and Hillary held on in a stupid as fuck format. Bernie needed to win, and probably win clearly, to change the conversation. But he won't go away since he didn't lose big (or even moderately) and the media will be about him in NH.

For Hillary, if she can grab > 40% of the NH vote, I think it's an overall win for her and will mean Bernie is done.

What Iowa did show is there is no "revolution" coming. Bernie won massively among young, white liberals in which Bernie poured massive resources to bring them out. Yeah, that's not a good sign going forward.


Back to Trump, I wonder if the lack of showing up to the debate hurt a little bit. While I can't prove it was the wrong move, I did say at the time I thought it was an unnecessary risk and I can't help but think I was right. Maybe it helped some people break to Rubio.

Really need Trump to hold on in NH with cruz solidly in second. Rubio needs to stay out of the top 2 in NH because he will probably struggle in SC afterwards.

Oh, and it's too bad for Trump the polls turned his way the final week. Imagine if Cruz was up 2-4 point like he previously was and then the results came in? People would still be talking about Rubio a bit, but the narrative on Trump would be "he did what he had to do, this state was favorable for Cruz." Instead, it's "OMG Trump collapsed" and stupid shit.

The polls missed the huge evangelical boost, it did not get Trump wrong by much.
 
18-24 Whites are just breaking to him so heavily that it skews the entire demo when you look at it through the lens of age alone. Hillary is winning Obama voters and is doing much better outside of the 18-24 age group.

You can argue that Iowa's an anomaly but Sanders got nearly 60% of 30 - 39 year olds. Clinton can win without under 30's but she needs to be strong with Gen Xers to compensate.
 

ctothej

Member
Made 200 off Hillary's win in Iowa. Was one of the most stressful nights of my life though, watching Bernie trail her by a hair. The win was offset by my Trump SC shares though. I think Trump will still get NH and SC as long as the other establishment candidates are still going all in on NH. I don't think a weak 2nd place by Rubio in NH is enough to knock Trump off the top in SC
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
You can argue that Iowa's an anomaly but Sanders got nearly 60% of 30 - 39 year olds. Clinton can win without under 30's but she needs to be strong with Gen Xers to compensate.

Iowa is one of Bernie's strongest states demographically, it's like 90% white people. Even among 25-44 he's winning white people. As the states get more diverse you'll see that number change.


EDIT: I want to note that I just left hispanics out of my post because they're breaking about evenly across age lines. 18-24 are slightly for Bernie and 25-max are going for Hillary.
 
Iowa does not represent the US. Iowa does not represent battleground states.

We just spent a few days talking about how hilariously stupid it is that Iowa is so important in a primary.

To extrapolate the age demographics in Iowa is an exercise in futility. How does one's performance with 30-39 year olds in some rural county in Iowa relate to how they will do in Miami, Fl, or Cle, Oh, or Las Vegas, NV???
 
Iowa is one of Bernie's strongest states demographically, it's like 90% white people. Even among 25-44 he's winning white people. As the states get more diverse you'll see that number change.


EDIT: I want to note that I just left hispanics out of my post because they're breaking about evenly across age lines. 18-24 are slightly for Bernie and 25-max are going for Hillary.

I'm not trying to say that Clinton needs white voters under 44 to win the primary but she does need to do a better job of reaching them in the general. White voters are still going to be 70%+ of the electorate and we know older folks are going to lean heavily Republican. Like Obama, Clinton needs to balance that out by doing well with the younger ones.
 

tmarg

Member
Ignore what? You think somehow white-looking Hispanics are not #truehispanics or what? I dont know where you or benji are trying to get at.

To be fair, Hispanic is actually several ethnicities. Cuban is not one that republicans have traditionally had too much trouble reaching. I'm sure a Cuban nominee would be somewhat helpful in reaching other Hispanics, but how much so is probably unknown at this point.
 

kirblar

Member
I'm not trying to say that Clinton needs white voters under 44 to win the primary but she does need to do a better job of reaching them in the general. White voters are still going to be 70%+ of the electorate and we know older folks are going to lean heavily Republican. Like Obama, Clinton needs to balance that out by doing well with the younger ones.
She can unleash Obama in the general.
 
Ignore what? You think somehow white-looking Hispanics are not #truehispanics or what? I dont know where you or benji are trying to get at.

Some Hispanics are literally white.

Full-fucking stop. Not white-looking.

Some Hispanics are also asian, or black as well. All the word literally means is that you can trace ancestry back to Latin America.
 
I'm not trying to say that Clinton needs white voters under 44 to win the primary but she does need to do a better job of reaching them in the general. White voters are still going to be 70%+ of the electorate and we know older folks are going to lean heavily Republican. Like Obama, Clinton needs to balance that out by doing well with the younger ones.

You're looking at this wrong by looking at the demographics, here. Those who voted in the GOP primaries will not be voting for any Dem.

While white voters do make up 70% of the electorate, a sizable portion are untouchable. She only needs to improve slightly on Obama's numbers to doom them.

Older folks lean Republican, but older Dems will vote Hillary no matter what.

I agree Hillary needs to bring in the Bernie supporters (and I think she will) and she needs to turnout some youth in important states, but just because young people are breaking for Bernie today doesn't mean they won't vote for her come the general.
 

benjipwns

Banned
Ignore what? You think somehow white-looking Hispanics are not #truehispanics or what? I dont know where you or benji are trying to get at.
These are all Hispanics:
Uf6BCmp.jpg

ISsSN09.jpg
 
It's shocking how shaky the people betting on Trump were on every betting market. The first sign of him not blowing everyone out in Iowa and all his markets tanked. It's only now beginning to recover slightly despite being favored in the next three states.
 

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
Hillary will never attract young people in the same way Cruz will never attract moderates. Therefore I should get a tax cut.
 

Makai

Member
It's shocking how shaky the people betting on Trump were on every betting market. The first sign of him not blowing everyone out in Iowa and all his markets tanked. It's only now beginning to recover slightly despite being favored in the next three states.
He came way under expectation and the establishment might finally coalesce behind Rubio.
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
It's shocking how shaky the people betting on Trump were on every betting market. The first sign of him not blowing everyone out in Iowa and all his markets tanked. It's only now beginning to recover slightly despite being favored in the next three states.

If I was more confident I would totally buy some more stock now that it's lower, but I'm not going to get greedy.

Hillary will never attract young people in the same way Cruz will never attract moderates. Therefore I should get a tax cut.

Seems legit.
 
Some Hispanics are literally white.

Full-fucking stop. Not white-looking.

Some Hispanics are also asian, or black as well. All the word literally means is that you can trace ancestry back to Latin America.

I'm pretty sure people from Spain and Portugal can identify as Hispanic. It's not just Latin America.

He came way under expectation and the establishment might finally coalesce behind Rubio.

He just got endorsed by Scott Brown.
 
Yep, something most people ignore when it suits them politically.

Meh ... most people make this distinction even though it's technically not true. Middle eastern people are also considered Caucasian but if you ask most people they'll think Hispanics and Middle Eastern people are separate races. I did the census when I was 18 or 19. A good portion of the Hispanic people I helped fill the form out were completely confused by this. Of them another half picked black when I told them Hispanic wasn't an option. lol
 
My family's from Portugal. This is the first I've heard of being Hispanic.

I think the census and other forms allow people from Portugal to identify that way if they choose. It's a big debate. I knew someone who got a scholarship for Hispanic students by being Portuguese.
 
Some Hispanics are literally white.

Full-fucking stop. Not white-looking.

Some Hispanics are also asian, or black as well. All the word literally means is that you can trace ancestry back to Latin America.

Non-hispanic white is a demographic category for a reason. Even white latinos share a particular culture, most even a particular language, different to the white majority in the US. And that shared culture translates into voting patterns.
 
Middle eastern as Caucasian is a weird distinction then if major candidates are blocking them from coming into the country and they also have different culture/language (I am a super white passing persian so I definitely get why we are lumped in).
 
I'm pretty sure people from Spain and Portugal can identify as Hispanic. It's not just Latin America.



He just got endorsed by Scott Brown.

People from Spain or Portugal will almost never identify as hispanic. They'd consider themselves spanish, or Portuguese, or iberian, or European before they considered themselves hispanic.

Meh ... most people make this distinction even though it's technically not true. Middle eastern people are also considered Caucasian but if you ask most people they'll think Hispanics and Middle Eastern people are separate races. I did the census when I was 18 or 19. A good portion of the Hispanic people I helped fill the form out were completely confused by this. Of them another half picked black when I told them Hispanic wasn't an option. lol

I dont understand what you mean that its technically not true. Hispanic was a term invented for the census. It is not a race. I think I would know, myself being white hispanic.

And I guess your anecdote is meant to trump the fact that there are literally white hispanics, and black hispanics, because the nations of the Dominican Republic and Argentina or Uruguay exist?
My family's from Portugal. This is the first I've heard of being Hispanic.

Yep.
 
Obama now at 50% approval rating, 46% disapprove.

Hopefully, this holds or increases a bit come November..

The economy's in a good place, Obama's approval rating is above water and rising, the Republican frontrunners are a bigoted reality tv show star and trustfund baby and a hard-right dominionist.... all the pieces are here for this election to pretty much be a reverse-1988 and Dems potentially wasted this chance on an atheist socialist and someone under FBI investigation.
 
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