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PoliGAF 2015-2016 |OT3| If someone named PhoenixDark leaves your party, call the cops
- Thread starter Diablos
- Start date
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benjipwns
Banned
Yes, he has a pickup truck.
And defeated Martha Coakley, the most formidable Democrat in all the land.
He stopped Obamacare!
Wasn't he also a model? I remember him appearing shirtless in a magazine.
Shit, that's been going since before I was in pre-K.
Ignatz Mouse
Banned
Predictit is about to pay out, here's how I plan to use the funds:
Wait until after NH, when HRC shares should be depressed, and then put the winnings on her. Then after Super Tuesday, when they will likely bounce, pull them out. Or any other hearty bounce, really.
Wait until after NH, when HRC shares should be depressed, and then put the winnings on her. Then after Super Tuesday, when they will likely bounce, pull them out. Or any other hearty bounce, really.
It's already priced in that Bernie wins NH. Buy now.
If he does then Clinton should pick O'Malley. Instead of a debate they could have a wet t-shirt contest, adam could judge.
And_Gignac
Member
I will CLAP BACK during Nevada, you´ll see.
Are hispanics white now? Even with younger blacks he has a sizeable portion of support. This isnt a men vs women or minorities vs whites contest, its a young, unapologetic liberals vs old, centrist democrats.
Those are inspiring numbers for Sanders in Nevada.
benjipwns
Banned
Some are and always have been. Hispanic is an ethnicity.
RustyNails
Member
It would be helpful to have historic turnout for each demo and their voteshare of the pie. Another way to frame this is that Bernie heavily relies on a demo that almost never shows up to polls. Obama had this problem, but he overcame this deficit by building his multi-racial coalition which though small, is suitably reliable.
It's a long term project which you cant build overnight.
I don't get the problem really. Having a good organization and operation has always been important, and as polarization continues to create more steadfast right/left voter bases they will only grow more so.
Why isn't the converse discussed, that Sanders doesn't apparently have the organization and operations processes to actually bring to fruition this revolution his personality is supposed to create. If he couldn't win one of these states favorable to him it's not a good look for his organization in the GE regardless.
I always think of the celebratory line of luxury ink bearing his name.
http://noodlersink.com/whats-new/41-brown/
Black Mamba
Member
Welp, looks like I was right once again!
What I hinted might happen, did.
The non-evangelical voters mostly consolidated their not-Trump not-Cruz votes into one candidate and that was Rubio. The undecideds broke for Rubio.
This was something I kind of expected. If you supported Trump, you probably already supported Trump. If not, you were waiting for the best option that also wasn't Cruz and that was Rubio.
The polling missed the mark on the evangelical turnout which is what propelled Cruz to vicotry.
But it wasn't all bad for Trump. He still came in 2nd in a state he shouldn't have won. His voters did mostly turn out, they just got dwarfed by the evangelicals coming out in full force.
Rubio obviously had a good night but he didn't finish in 2nd, which would have changed things drastically. Of course, the media might play it otherwise...sigh. But he did what he had to do to be a real player. But he hasn't won shit, yet. If he comes in 3rd in NH, Iowa will be forgotten. If Cruz gets an Iowa bounce here, and Trump maintains a win, Rubio could be screwed.
On the Dem side, it played out just like i thought. Turnout was up, but not up enough, and Hillary held on in a stupid as fuck format. Bernie needed to win, and probably win clearly, to change the conversation. But he won't go away since he didn't lose big (or even moderately) and the media will be about him in NH.
For Hillary, if she can grab > 40% of the NH vote, I think it's an overall win for her and will mean Bernie is done.
What Iowa did show is there is no "revolution" coming. Bernie won massively among young, white liberals in which Bernie poured massive resources to bring them out. Yeah, that's not a good sign going forward.
Back to Trump, I wonder if the lack of showing up to the debate hurt a little bit. While I can't prove it was the wrong move, I did say at the time I thought it was an unnecessary risk and I can't help but think I was right. Maybe it helped some people break to Rubio.
Really need Trump to hold on in NH with cruz solidly in second. Rubio needs to stay out of the top 2 in NH because he will probably struggle in SC afterwards.
Oh, and it's too bad for Trump the polls turned his way the final week. Imagine if Cruz was up 2-4 point like he previously was and then the results came in? People would still be talking about Rubio a bit, but the narrative on Trump would be "he did what he had to do, this state was favorable for Cruz." Instead, it's "OMG Trump collapsed" and stupid shit.
The polls missed the huge evangelical boost, it did not get Trump wrong by much.
What I hinted might happen, did.
The non-evangelical voters mostly consolidated their not-Trump not-Cruz votes into one candidate and that was Rubio. The undecideds broke for Rubio.
This was something I kind of expected. If you supported Trump, you probably already supported Trump. If not, you were waiting for the best option that also wasn't Cruz and that was Rubio.
The polling missed the mark on the evangelical turnout which is what propelled Cruz to vicotry.
But it wasn't all bad for Trump. He still came in 2nd in a state he shouldn't have won. His voters did mostly turn out, they just got dwarfed by the evangelicals coming out in full force.
Rubio obviously had a good night but he didn't finish in 2nd, which would have changed things drastically. Of course, the media might play it otherwise...sigh. But he did what he had to do to be a real player. But he hasn't won shit, yet. If he comes in 3rd in NH, Iowa will be forgotten. If Cruz gets an Iowa bounce here, and Trump maintains a win, Rubio could be screwed.
On the Dem side, it played out just like i thought. Turnout was up, but not up enough, and Hillary held on in a stupid as fuck format. Bernie needed to win, and probably win clearly, to change the conversation. But he won't go away since he didn't lose big (or even moderately) and the media will be about him in NH.
For Hillary, if she can grab > 40% of the NH vote, I think it's an overall win for her and will mean Bernie is done.
What Iowa did show is there is no "revolution" coming. Bernie won massively among young, white liberals in which Bernie poured massive resources to bring them out. Yeah, that's not a good sign going forward.
Back to Trump, I wonder if the lack of showing up to the debate hurt a little bit. While I can't prove it was the wrong move, I did say at the time I thought it was an unnecessary risk and I can't help but think I was right. Maybe it helped some people break to Rubio.
Really need Trump to hold on in NH with cruz solidly in second. Rubio needs to stay out of the top 2 in NH because he will probably struggle in SC afterwards.
Oh, and it's too bad for Trump the polls turned his way the final week. Imagine if Cruz was up 2-4 point like he previously was and then the results came in? People would still be talking about Rubio a bit, but the narrative on Trump would be "he did what he had to do, this state was favorable for Cruz." Instead, it's "OMG Trump collapsed" and stupid shit.
The polls missed the huge evangelical boost, it did not get Trump wrong by much.
Roland_Gunner
Member
You can argue that Iowa's an anomaly but Sanders got nearly 60% of 30 - 39 year olds. Clinton can win without under 30's but she needs to be strong with Gen Xers to compensate.
Made 200 off Hillary's win in Iowa. Was one of the most stressful nights of my life though, watching Bernie trail her by a hair. The win was offset by my Trump SC shares though. I think Trump will still get NH and SC as long as the other establishment candidates are still going all in on NH. I don't think a weak 2nd place by Rubio in NH is enough to knock Trump off the top in SC
campfireweekend
Member
Yep, something most people ignore when it suits them politically.
Iowa is one of Bernie's strongest states demographically, it's like 90% white people. Even among 25-44 he's winning white people. As the states get more diverse you'll see that number change.
EDIT: I want to note that I just left hispanics out of my post because they're breaking about evenly across age lines. 18-24 are slightly for Bernie and 25-max are going for Hillary.
Black Republican
Member
Poor Benny, " Cruz cheated, im still in the race! why isnt anyone listening? 
"
"And_Gignac
Member
Ignore what? You think somehow white-looking Hispanics are not #truehispanics or what? I dont know where you or benji are trying to get at.
Black Mamba
Member
Iowa does not represent the US. Iowa does not represent battleground states.
We just spent a few days talking about how hilariously stupid it is that Iowa is so important in a primary.
To extrapolate the age demographics in Iowa is an exercise in futility. How does one's performance with 30-39 year olds in some rural county in Iowa relate to how they will do in Miami, Fl, or Cle, Oh, or Las Vegas, NV???
We just spent a few days talking about how hilariously stupid it is that Iowa is so important in a primary.
To extrapolate the age demographics in Iowa is an exercise in futility. How does one's performance with 30-39 year olds in some rural county in Iowa relate to how they will do in Miami, Fl, or Cle, Oh, or Las Vegas, NV???
Roland_Gunner
Member
I'm not trying to say that Clinton needs white voters under 44 to win the primary but she does need to do a better job of reaching them in the general. White voters are still going to be 70%+ of the electorate and we know older folks are going to lean heavily Republican. Like Obama, Clinton needs to balance that out by doing well with the younger ones.
To be fair, Hispanic is actually several ethnicities. Cuban is not one that republicans have traditionally had too much trouble reaching. I'm sure a Cuban nominee would be somewhat helpful in reaching other Hispanics, but how much so is probably unknown at this point.
She can unleash Obama in the general.
QuiteWhittle
Member
They're saying Salvador Dali and Raul Cuero aren't apart of the same race.
campfireweekend
Member
Some Hispanics are literally white.
Full-fucking stop. Not white-looking.
Some Hispanics are also asian, or black as well. All the word literally means is that you can trace ancestry back to Latin America.
Black Mamba
Member
You're looking at this wrong by looking at the demographics, here. Those who voted in the GOP primaries will not be voting for any Dem.
While white voters do make up 70% of the electorate, a sizable portion are untouchable. She only needs to improve slightly on Obama's numbers to doom them.
Older folks lean Republican, but older Dems will vote Hillary no matter what.
I agree Hillary needs to bring in the Bernie supporters (and I think she will) and she needs to turnout some youth in important states, but just because young people are breaking for Bernie today doesn't mean they won't vote for her come the general.
benjipwns
Banned
ugaboga232
Member
In 20 years we will be definitely ready for socialism, just in time for me to be a practicing doctor maybe.
Bam Bam Baklava
Member
It's shocking how shaky the people betting on Trump were on every betting market. The first sign of him not blowing everyone out in Iowa and all his markets tanked. It's only now beginning to recover slightly despite being favored in the next three states.
He came way under expectation and the establishment might finally coalesce behind Rubio.
If I was more confident I would totally buy some more stock now that it's lower, but I'm not going to get greedy.
Seems legit.
Bam Bam Baklava
Member
I'm pretty sure people from Spain and Portugal can identify as Hispanic. It's not just Latin America.
He just got endorsed by Scott Brown.
Fenderputty
Banned
Meh ... most people make this distinction even though it's technically not true. Middle eastern people are also considered Caucasian but if you ask most people they'll think Hispanics and Middle Eastern people are separate races. I did the census when I was 18 or 19. A good portion of the Hispanic people I helped fill the form out were completely confused by this. Of them another half picked black when I told them Hispanic wasn't an option. lol
RastaMentality
Banned
I hope I can get to finally see Obama speak before his term ends. I'll fly to a battleground state if I have to!
Wow, I learned something interesting about Alexis Bledel today. Didn't even speak english until she started school.
My family's from Portugal. This is the first I've heard of being Hispanic.
Black Mamba
Member
Obama now at 50% approval rating, 46% disapprove.
Hopefully, this holds or increases a bit come November..
Hopefully, this holds or increases a bit come November..
Only if you make more than $250k. Otherwise, try again once you've created more jobs.
Bam Bam Baklava
Member
I think the census and other forms allow people from Portugal to identify that way if they choose. It's a big debate. I knew someone who got a scholarship for Hispanic students by being Portuguese.
And_Gignac
Member
Non-hispanic white is a demographic category for a reason. Even white latinos share a particular culture, most even a particular language, different to the white majority in the US. And that shared culture translates into voting patterns.
ugaboga232
Member
Middle eastern as Caucasian is a weird distinction then if major candidates are blocking them from coming into the country and they also have different culture/language (I am a super white passing persian so I definitely get why we are lumped in).
campfireweekend
Member
People from Spain or Portugal will almost never identify as hispanic. They'd consider themselves spanish, or Portuguese, or iberian, or European before they considered themselves hispanic.
I dont understand what you mean that its technically not true. Hispanic was a term invented for the census. It is not a race. I think I would know, myself being white hispanic.
And I guess your anecdote is meant to trump the fact that there are literally white hispanics, and black hispanics, because the nations of the Dominican Republic and Argentina or Uruguay exist?
Yep.
And_Gignac
Member
I guess Univision and Telemundo are white people TV networks now.
QuiteWhittle
Member
The economy's in a good place, Obama's approval rating is above water and rising, the Republican frontrunners are a bigoted reality tv show star and trustfund baby and a hard-right dominionist.... all the pieces are here for this election to pretty much be a reverse-1988 and Dems potentially wasted this chance on an atheist socialist and someone under FBI investigation.
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