Yes, he has a pickup truck.Scott Brown is basically like a national hero to republicans, right?
Scott Brown is basically like a national hero to republicans, right?
Yes, he has a pickup truck.
Obama Derangement Syndrome didn't start until he was elected. Hillary Derangement Syndrome has a decades long head start.
@Nate_Cohn: At a certain point it should be obvious that Clinton's persistent weaknesses are mainly about her, not her staff
It's already priced in that Bernie wins NH. Buy now.Predictit is about to pay out, here's how I plan to use the funds:
Wait until after NH, when HRC shares should be depressed, and then put the winnings on her. Then after Super Tuesday, when they will likely bounce, pull them out. Or any other hearty bounce, really.
I know Trump has said nice things about Brown in the past but this is crazy - crazy. Great way to bounce back from Iowa.
This is definitely true.
Maggie Haberman ‏@maggieNYT 1h1 hour ago
In reality, her Iowa field org saved her last night.
Melkr u got owned so hard in the ot thread. I wept
Your own gif got turned against you
This just isn't true.
18-24 Whites are just breaking to him so heavily that it skews the entire demo when you look at it through the lens of age alone. Hillary is winning Obama voters and is doing much better outside of the 18-24 age group.
Some are and always have been. Hispanic is an ethnicity.Are hispanics white now?
It would be helpful to have historic turnout for each demo and their voteshare of the pie. Another way to frame this is that Bernie heavily relies on a demo that almost never shows up to polls. Obama had this problem, but he overcame this deficit by building his multi-racial coalition which though small, is suitably reliable.This just isn't true.
18-24 Whites are just breaking to him so heavily that it skews the entire demo when you look at it through the lens of age alone. Hillary is winning Obama voters and is doing much better outside of the 18-24 age group.
yup. hence:
Yes, he has a pickup truck.
And defeated Martha Coakley, the most formidable Democrat in all the land.
Just a heads, the GOP polling is likely to be off for numerous reasons.
1. We don't know if Trump's supporters will show up
2. There's 2 types of undecides. The kind that either won't admit they support Trump or want to make sure he doesn't implode before they support him. The other kind is someone who refuses to vote for Trump but has been patiently waiting to see who the best option to defeat him is.
3. The lesser candidates are likely to lose votes as people start to think a little more rationally. A vote for Fiorina is a wasted vote, so why bother? These guys will go somewhere else. Will it be Trump or not-Trump? I don't know.
I'm not arguing that Trump's numbers are too high or too low. I think it's Trump or Cruz. I think Cruz still has an avenue to win. But what I question is how much the results will look like the polls (the order may be right but the differences will be different IMO). It's impossible to guess the outcome because of how many variables are at stake.
The Dem side is a bit more reliable. I think the polling is probably pretty accurate and only turnout will be the variable.
Should be interesting, that's for sure.
18-24 Whites are just breaking to him so heavily that it skews the entire demo when you look at it through the lens of age alone. Hillary is winning Obama voters and is doing much better outside of the 18-24 age group.
Some are and always have been. Hispanic is an ethnicity.
You can argue that Iowa's an anomaly but Sanders got nearly 60% of 30 - 39 year olds. Clinton can win without under 30's but she needs to be strong with Gen Xers to compensate.
Yep, something most people ignore when it suits them politically.
Iowa is one of Bernie's strongest states demographically, it's like 90% white people. Even among 25-44 he's winning white people. As the states get more diverse you'll see that number change.
EDIT: I want to note that I just left hispanics out of my post because they're breaking about evenly across age lines. 18-24 are slightly for Bernie and 25-max are going for Hillary.
Ignore what? You think somehow white-looking Hispanics are not #truehispanics or what? I dont know where you or benji are trying to get at.
She can unleash Obama in the general.I'm not trying to say that Clinton needs white voters under 44 to win the primary but she does need to do a better job of reaching them in the general. White voters are still going to be 70%+ of the electorate and we know older folks are going to lean heavily Republican. Like Obama, Clinton needs to balance that out by doing well with the younger ones.
Ignore what? You think somehow white-looking Hispanics are not #truehispanics or what? I dont know where you or benji are trying to get at.
Ignore what? You think somehow white-looking Hispanics are not #truehispanics or what? I dont know where you or benji are trying to get at.
I'm not trying to say that Clinton needs white voters under 44 to win the primary but she does need to do a better job of reaching them in the general. White voters are still going to be 70%+ of the electorate and we know older folks are going to lean heavily Republican. Like Obama, Clinton needs to balance that out by doing well with the younger ones.
These are all Hispanics:Ignore what? You think somehow white-looking Hispanics are not #truehispanics or what? I dont know where you or benji are trying to get at.
He came way under expectation and the establishment might finally coalesce behind Rubio.It's shocking how shaky the people betting on Trump were on every betting market. The first sign of him not blowing everyone out in Iowa and all his markets tanked. It's only now beginning to recover slightly despite being favored in the next three states.
It's shocking how shaky the people betting on Trump were on every betting market. The first sign of him not blowing everyone out in Iowa and all his markets tanked. It's only now beginning to recover slightly despite being favored in the next three states.
Hillary will never attract young people in the same way Cruz will never attract moderates. Therefore I should get a tax cut.
Some Hispanics are literally white.
Full-fucking stop. Not white-looking.
Some Hispanics are also asian, or black as well. All the word literally means is that you can trace ancestry back to Latin America.
He came way under expectation and the establishment might finally coalesce behind Rubio.
Yep, something most people ignore when it suits them politically.
I hope I can get to finally see Obama speak before his term ends. I'll fly to a battleground state if I have to!She can unleash Obama in the general.
These are all Hispanics:
My family's from Portugal. This is the first I've heard of being Hispanic.I'm pretty sure people from Spain and Portugal can identify as Hispanic. It's not just Latin America.
Hillary will never attract young people in the same way Cruz will never attract moderates. Therefore I should get a tax cut.
My family's from Portugal. This is the first I've heard of being Hispanic.
Some Hispanics are literally white.
Full-fucking stop. Not white-looking.
Some Hispanics are also asian, or black as well. All the word literally means is that you can trace ancestry back to Latin America.
I'm pretty sure people from Spain and Portugal can identify as Hispanic. It's not just Latin America.
He just got endorsed by Scott Brown.
Meh ... most people make this distinction even though it's technically not true. Middle eastern people are also considered Caucasian but if you ask most people they'll think Hispanics and Middle Eastern people are separate races. I did the census when I was 18 or 19. A good portion of the Hispanic people I helped fill the form out were completely confused by this. Of them another half picked black when I told them Hispanic wasn't an option. lol
My family's from Portugal. This is the first I've heard of being Hispanic.
Obama now at 50% approval rating, 46% disapprove.
Hopefully, this holds or increases a bit come November..