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PoliGAF 2015-2016 |OT3| If someone named PhoenixDark leaves your party, call the cops

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B

Brinbe

Member
Surprised it took that long for Rubio stuff to be noticed in this thread. Even the Washington Post even touched on it a bit https://www.washingtonpost.com/poli...82a72e-c04d-11e5-bcda-62a36b394160_story.html

There's probably a lot more yet to come out lol.

Anyway, Trump has a much better shot of taking NH without the abundance of evangelicals and he's polling much more dominantly than he ever did in IA, where he only really overtook Cruz in the final week.

The important thing is gonna be how much Christie/Bush/Kasich/Trump/Cruz beat up on Rubio and ensure he doesn't get 2nd.
 
U

User 463088

Banned
Black Mamba said:
Oh god, don't let Adam see these pics. don't!
Click to expand...

Black Republican said:
fappin to the pics as we speak!
Click to expand...

Bianca-Del-Rio-RuPauls-Drag-Race-Oh-My-God-Gif.gif
 
S

SmokeMaxX

Member
Teggy said:
Well I hope this gets around. This however, sounds a little messed up:
Click to expand...

Their process is so weird. I was watching it live on CSPAN and they had to multiply each side's vote count by the number of delegates the precinct had and divide by the total number of STARTING people. So if 40 people leave in a 100 person caucus that's split evenly and you're supposed to allocate 10 delegates...
30 * 10 = 300
300 / 100 = 3
Boom you only have 6 delegates accounted for (3 each). In this situation, you could just allocate the other delegates evenly because each candidate got equal support and it makes sense. But what happens if one party gets 20 people and the other gets 40? One party would get 2 delegates. The other would get 4. Then they would have to figure out how to allocate the remaining 4 fairly.
 
U

User 463088

Banned
Poodlestrike said:
I see some suggestive arm movement on the right...
Click to expand...

Not Rubio. Ugh. There's not a Republican on that stage I'd let stump my caucus. Gun to my head, I probably would take the bullet.

Maybe Frothy, just because I'd find it hilarious....but....I'd have to be realllllllly drunk and full of self-loathing. So...you know. A Tuesday.
 
I

ivysaur12

Banned
I just don't see what Cruz's path to nomination is, while Rubio and Trump have much clearer paths.

UGH. Rubio scares me but I need that Trumpmentum.
 
P

PBY

Banned
adam387 said:
Not Rubio. Ugh. There's not a Republican on that stage I'd let stump my caucus. Gun to my head, I probably would take the bullet.

Maybe Frothy, just because I'd find it hilarious....but....I'd have to be realllllllly drunk and full of self-loathing. So...you know. A Tuesday.
Click to expand...

christie-gif2.gif

nothing?
 
S

Suikoguy

I whinny my fervor lowly, for his length is not as great as those of the Hylian war stallions
So let's say the delegate split continues, with Cruz and Trump getting similar delegate counts and Rubio bringing up his rear.

How would a convention like that go?
 
S

Suikoguy

I whinny my fervor lowly, for his length is not as great as those of the Hylian war stallions
Black Mamba said:
There are numerous winner take all states coming up. Such a split is unlikely.
Click to expand...

Are winner take all states just whoever gets the most votes, or does it require a certain percentage?
 
B

Black Mamba

Member
Hey guys, remember when plinko tried to warn us that Ben Carson was legit?

Oh, those were the days. Instead, we're worried about rubio and wondering if Trump can recover and if Cruz can actually pull it off.

What a time to be alive.
 
I

ivysaur12

Banned
Well, I guess it wasn't just those on the right parroting this last night:

‏@davidaxelrod
One note of caution for Ds post Iowa: This is first time, in an open seat election, when Rs outvoted Ds. Something to watch in purple IA.
Click to expand...

I still don't think it quite matters either way, since the D race is essentially a 2 person race versus a 16 person race for Rs. But yeah, I guess something to watch.
 
P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Black Mamba said:
Hey guys, remember when plinko tried to warn us that Ben Carson was legit?

Oh, those were the days. Instead, we're worried about rubio and wondering if Trump can recover and if Cruz can actually pull it off.

What a time to be alive.
Click to expand...

If Carson actually wanted to be president, he could have been a VP pick. He clearly has zero desire for the job.

Look what happened the moment he took the lead in polls: he started saying the dumbest stuff ever. Tanks his own campaign. We barely hear anything from him, and I think it is by design. He wants the exposure/money--that's all.
 
P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
Okay, the LePen theory turned out to be completely wrong. The massive turnout was from extreme conservatives who thought Trump wasn't enough.

CaN6NiAWEAASCrv.png
Click to expand...

Exactly as we were saying earlier. This doesn't bode well for Cruz in other states.
 
I

ivysaur12

Banned
Good. Good.

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/...-sharpen-their-knives-in-new-hampshire-218620

Jeb Bush, Chris Christie and John Kasich now have a clear goal for their longshot efforts in New Hampshire: Stop Marco Rubio.

Since the 44-year-old Florida senator entered the presidential race, his rivals for the support of establishment Republicans have spoken of him as a candidate running more on his youthful potential and personal story as the son of Cuban immigrants than on any record of accomplishment.

But after his strong finish in the Iowa caucuses – in which Bush, Christie, and Kasich barely registered -- Rubio is running downhill. And if his establishment rivals are to avoid getting crushed beneath, they’ll have to do in New Hampshire what they couldn’t in Iowa: find a line of attack that slows him down.

But how? At various points, Bush, Christie, and Kasich each tried to paint Rubio as a rookie senator and immigration flip-flopper. Rubio finished third in Iowa anyway, within a whisker of Donald Trump and miles ahead of anyone else in his lane.

This time around, on top of their standard attacks, Bush, Christie and Kasich are adding a localized approach. Their message to New Hampshire voters: Rubio doesn’t love you like we do, and he doesn’t deserve your love back.

Separately, the three camps are plotting a barrage of criticism in the days to come, largely to accuse Rubio of failing to put in the one-to-one courtship with New Hampshire voters and then attempting to waltz in late and walk away with their hearts.
Click to expand...
 
C

Cesare Borgia

Banned
Kasich will likely be one of the top 3 vice president candidates if Rubio becomes the nominee. Very popular in Ohio, the most general election friendly GOP candidate rhetoric wise, and could offer a lot to a relatively inexperienced Rubio in Washington (as Biden did). The Bush ties don't help but ultimately picking him would be all about Ohio.

Rubio Kasich wouldn't be a bad ticket.

Still think Cruz can win this. The base agrees with him, and he'll take some of Trump's support.
 
B

brainchild

Banned
Iolo said:
OK you voyeurs, let's get back to the important stuff:
Click to expand...

To be quite honest with you, the winner of the coin tosses is irrelevant. The fact that coin tosses can become a factor in a presidential primary nomination (caucus) is the problem, and that doesn't change just because Bernie won them.

Now if you'll excuse me, I'll be leaving this thread again, but I thought it would be good to clarify my stance before people started peddling a bunch of candidate bias bullshit.
 
I

ItWasMeantToBe19

Banned
Plinko said:
If Carson actually wanted to be president, he could have been a VP pick. He clearly has zero desire for the job.

Look what happened the moment he took the lead in polls: he started saying the dumbest stuff ever. Tanks his own campaign. We barely hear anything from him, and I think it is by design. He wants the exposure/money--that's all.
Click to expand...

His tanking wasn't intentional. Since he stopped being relevant, he's still talked about gay people as sub-human. Before his campaign started, he was talking about the pyramids as grain silos and Charles Darwin being controlled by Satan.

Seriously, look at my thread on Carson, he said most of these things prior to his presidential campaign:

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=1122694&highlight=ben+carson

He's just a great doctor who has no grasp on reality otherwise.

Good. Good.
Click to expand...

Hmm, I wonder whether Jeb will go with gay-baiting or race-baiting against Rubio here.
 
B

Black Mamba

Member
Plinko said:
If Carson actually wanted to be president, he could have been a VP pick. He clearly has zero desire for the job.

Look what happened the moment he took the lead in polls: he started saying the dumbest stuff ever. Tanks his own campaign. We barely hear anything from him, and I think it is by design. He wants the exposure/money--that's all.
Click to expand...

just raggin' on you a bit.

FWIW, the Iowa vote was weird in terms of Carson. For one, he overperformed his polls which is weird cuz I would have imagined they would have broke for Cruz/Trump to influence the election. For another, his support is relatively unchanged no matter the demographics, other than evangelical/born again vs not. Hell, 13% of last minute voters chose him. WHY!? It doesn't make sense at all. What on earth would convince anyone to vote for Carson the day of the election!?!? I mean, either you were already with him or you weren't. Was Carson the actual protest vote, or something?

His totals are perplexing. Like, super-religious folks voted for him and refused to budge and then others used him as a protest vote last minute I suppose?
 
S

shinra-bansho

Member
..what should unnerve her and the party is the visceral reaction inside the Bernie Sanders post-caucus rally as her late-night remarks aired inside the hall. When Clinton declared “I am a progressive,” the Sanders crowd chanted, “she’s a liar!”
...
While some believe that Obama went as far to the left as he could and wrangled as much of the system as was possible, others contend Obama didn’t push the envelope, compromising too much and not mobilizing the grass roots enough.

Sanders has explicitly made the latter case.
...
Clinton’s odes to pragmatism not only rankle the Sanders faithful, they also make her seem like the reason why they can’t have nice things. She becomes the problem, instead of just the Republicans. Once Sanders voters equate Clinton with the Republicans, they start to say they won’t vote for Clinton. Ever.

...he will likely be in a position to secure a prime-time convention speech. If that speech diverges widely from Clinton’s — and Sanders is not known for watering down his speeches — it would run the risk of magnifying the ideological divide instead of healing it.
...
The question for Clinton and Sanders is: Will they be able to keep their race civil enough to maximize the chances for Democratic victory in November? Their rhetoric has been fairly gentle, so far. Yet animosity is bubbling up anyway. And campaigns usually get nastier, not nicer, as they grind on.
Click to expand...
http://www.politico.com/magazine/st...6-democrats-great-divide-213585#ixzz3z3clT7Nd

It will be interesting to see how this plays out if/when she's the nominee. I feel like I've actually seen this attitude here, and even though there's a facade of civility it's being subtly or overtly stoked by the likes of Weaver and Devine. There is a sentiment that goes so far as to consider her "evil."

I guess one can point to 2008 in terms of protracted primaries and healing rifts, but I think Clinton used her speech well towards the latter. And I may be mistaken, but while the ridiculous threat of PUMAs voting for McCain rang hollow, but these would have been older women demographics rather than potentially disenchanted youth.
 
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