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PoliGAF 2015-2016 |OT3| If someone named PhoenixDark leaves your party, call the cops

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N

NeoXChaos

Member
http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2015/...e-republican-field-ahead-of-las-vegas-debate/

1. Donald Trump continues to be the dominant presence in the field and continues to drive the conversation and race. He has led nationally and in nearly every state for five months; while others have risen or fallen, his support has not dropped. No matter what he seems to say or do, he has come out on top. If he wins the Iowa caucuses, it is very hard to see how he can be beaten. Mr. Trump reminds me of someone who has fought many times in casinos on the Strip: Floyd Mayweather. Mr. Trump is brash, bombastic, strong, and smart in the ring. He is all about his brand. Both love hats with their message emblazoned on them. Assuming that Mr. Trump comes through Vegas without a hangover, the odds of him winning the nomination are 2 to 1.
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2. Ted Cruz has risen nationally, but more important is that he has made a big bet on Iowa–and has risen to first or tied there. Now, the senator has to win Iowa or the race for him is over. Mr. Cruz is unliked by many people, but he is also smart and disciplined and has become the darling of social conservatives. He hopes that a strong debate performance will continue to give him momentum in the first caucuses and that he won’t end up like Mike Huckabee (2008) and Rick Santorum (2012), who won but whose campaigns fizzled in Iowa’s aftermath. Expect Mr. Cruz to take more swings at Wolf Blitzer, CNN, and the media than at any candidates on stage with him Tuesday. His hope is that the turnout in caucuses and primaries is led by traditional voters and doesn’t expand to include many Trump followers. I’d say the odds of Mr. Cruz winning the nomination are 3 to 1.
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3. Marco Rubio is probably under the most pressure in this debate. He is talented, smart, young, and has assumed the mantle of the establishment. He is probably the best alternative available to win this race against Donald Trump and Ted Cruz, but he needs to gain momentum from this moment in Vegas. Mr. Rubio needs to have some surge so he can identify a place he will win in February, and right now he isn’t close in any of the four contests held before March 1. It is almost impossible for Mr. Rubio to succeed if Mr. Trump and Mr. Cruz split the first four events. I’d say Mr. Rubio’s odds to win the GOP nomination are 4 to 1.
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.
 
C

Coriolanus

Banned
Y'know, democrats should really start trying to tar people like Cruz as regressives.

Safe to assume that the candidates most likely demanded that they keep anderson cooper the fuck away from them?
 
U

User 463088

Banned
If this JV debate was the Dem debate, Bernie would be so freaking screwed. If Saturday's debate is entirely based on foreign policy.....good luck brah.
 
D

Daniel B·

Banned
XyZD1m0.jpg
 
I

ivysaur12

Banned
NeoXChaos said:
If DWS can't do her job who do you think can do better? Dragging out Howard Dean back is not an option.
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I don't think it's an easy job. I also think there are many Democratic members of congress and many governors who are reasonable, nice people who are good at fundraising and would be decent, non-noteworthy heads of the DNC. Wasserman Schultz is not one of those people.
 
D

Daniel B·

Banned
adam387 said:
The barely hidden misogyny is a really, really nice touch.

And, yes, our debate is on Saturday on ABC, I believe.
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Given that I listed "Equal rights for women" as a key achievement of both a Bernie and Hillary Presidency, I'm not sure how anyone else would arrive at that conclusion, and, as you well know, I practically worship at the feet of Elizabeth (no, not Hasselbeck, her name has an 's' in it ;) ). Carly is another women I would have no respect for as President, not because she's a women, but because of her terrible policies.

If Hillary were to become President, I wonder what odds the bookies would offer on her, and her family members, avoiding being embroiled in yet another scandal, given that her recent ones pale in comparison to her families past, highly questionable behavior?
 
O

Orbis Tabula

Member
So, all debate so far, people have made the same point. That the government can't look at suspects' social media. Not that they won't, but that they can't. What's this about? Just a different way to convince people to support an encryption back door? Or is there really some rules about looking at suspects' social media?
 
B

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
EskimoJoe said:
So, all debate so far, people have made the same point. That the government can't look at suspects' social media. Not that they won't, but that they can't. What's this about? Just a different way to convince people to support an encryption back door? Or is there really some rules about looking at suspects' social media?
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Going by what Kasich is saying yea, they want backdoors in everything.
 
P

Poodlestrike

Banned
Encryption backdoors are... tricky, to me. On the one hand, any encryption system that has a back door is an encryption system that quite simply does not work. It can't be called secure.

On the other hand, you (general "you") don't have the right to hide things from a legal search warrant, which is what high-level encryption basically does allows for now. It's like... well, it's like something that doesn't have a good analogy to the physical world, which makes it hard to talk about.

On the third hand, most digital searches aren't actually accompanied by warrants. Which is definitely Not Okay.
 
N

neurosisxeno

Member
NeoXChaos said:
If DWS can't do her job who do you think can do better? Dragging out Howard Dean back is not an option.
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It wouldn't surprise me if it were someone like Martin O'Malley. I also could see someone like Al Franken taking up the job considering he went from a Supreme Court decision victory in 2008--a year that was great for Dems--to winning by 11 points in 2014--a year that was absolutely terrible for dems, and he did it by running a campaign that didn't pander to Independents and Moderate Republicans, but by stressing the accomplishments of the Democratic Party.

But it will probably end up being Kirsten Gillibrand.
 
H

HylianTom

Banned
Wow - Great timing for a news dump; the GOP base will be FURIOUS with its party leadership.

@AP:
BREAKING: Lawmaker: House Speaker Paul Ryan has announced year-end spending and tax deal.
 
P

PantherLotus

Professional Schmuck
1. Trump looks weak as fuck tonight

2. If Jeb Bush's biggest moment of his life was putting Trump on the ropes tonight like I just witness, so be it. Good for you big fella -- we might have to thank a Bush for saving the world for once.

3. Rubio is clearly the one we should all be watching and the one Dem's should be afraid of.

4. Cruz will never get past New Hampshire.
 
R

RastaMentality

Banned
This Cruz vs. Rubio battle is definitely one of the lesser talked about things of the primary.

costareports: This Cruz-Rubio battle is now a defining dynamic in the race. Two freshman senators, knives out. Tense. Raw ambition.
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B

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
PantherLotus said:
1. Trump looks weak as fuck tonight

2. If Jeb Bush's biggest moment of his life was putting Trump on the ropes tonight like I just witness, so be it. Good for you big fella -- we might have to thank a Bush for saving the world for once.

3. Rubio is clearly the one we should all be watching and the one Dem's should be afraid of.

4. Cruz will never get past New Hampshire.
Click to expand...

I don't think we're watching the same debate. Trump hit Jeb with that ether a few times now, he went scorched earth. His numbers will only go up from here.
 
B

Basileus777

Member
B-Dubs said:
I don't think we're watching the same debate. Trump hit Jeb with that ether a few times now, he went scorched earth. His numbers will only go up from here.
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And Cruz has gotten the better of Rubio multiple times. He's probably tonight's biggest winner. Rubio's immigration past is such an easy target, even Rand is burning him on it.
 
J

j_k_redtail

Member
HylianTom said:
Wow - Great timing for a news dump; the GOP base will be FURIOUS with its party leadership.

@AP:
BREAKING: Lawmaker: House Speaker Paul Ryan has announced year-end spending and tax deal.
Click to expand...

http://bigstory.ap.org/article/c106...ners-resolving-last-hurdles-spending-tax-deal

WASHINGTON (AP) — House Speaker Paul Ryan announced late Tuesday an agreement between congressional leaders and the White House on a year-end tax and spending package that would fund the government through the 2016 budget year, raise domestic and defense spending, and increase the deficit by hundreds of billions of dollars by extending numerous popular tax credits without paying for them.
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Wow.
 
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