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PoliGAF 2015-2016 |OT3| If someone named PhoenixDark leaves your party, call the cops

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Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Nate Silver said:
My colleague Ella Koeze tells me that Chris Christie has been attacked only three times so far tonight — compared with 22 times for Rubio, 16 for Trump and nine for Cruz. Reminds me a bit of a game of Risk where you have the third- or fourth-strongest army and no one attacks you because you’re not in first or second place. If you’re nevertheless strong enough to mount a threat to win the game, that can become an advantageous position. This is vaguely the path that John Kerry followed to becoming the Democratic nominee in 2004 — he didn’t seem quite threatening enough for anyone to attack him until it was too late.

Sure thing, Nate. Keep pushing that Christie story.
 
I'm not seeing the "Cruz did poorly" angle, not unless you really think talking over the moderators is something that is actually damaging. The only memorable/significant things from Cruz tonight were his exchanges with Rubio which he won.
 
It might be different in your country, but not having a right to hide is quite different from helping with the search. One is under no obligation whatsoever to help a search warrant, and heck, one can most certainly leave stuff inside a safe if desired. They'll just try to crack the damn thing open if you don't collaborate, or take the safe away, but you do not have to help them. Plus you can just, y'know, move evidence elsewhere if you know a search warrant is hitting one office.

But all of that falls under the scope of not being forced to self-incriminate down here. I do hear that y'all have some cray cray definitions of what constitutes obstruction of justice up there.

Safes aren't a working analogy, though. Safes are encryption with a backdoor, or at least a compromised structure. They can, if they have to, force their way in.

And yeah, deliberately hiding evidence most definitely counts as obstruction as justice. That's not crazy, that's just closing a deeply obvious loophole :p
 
I thought both Cruz and Rand had good nights. Trump as well actually. Everyone else was forgettable.

Except for Carly's giant fucking cross necklace. I kept imagining people bringing her cross necklaces and she kept going "no bigger!" until she finally settled on the huge one we saw tonight. That thing was ridiculous.

Whenever Trump said Hugh Hewitt's name all I could think about was this part in Curb Your Enthusiasm: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=osvN34PXjgU
 

sangreal

Member
Encryption backdoors are... tricky, to me. On the one hand, any encryption system that has a back door is an encryption system that quite simply does not work. It can't be called secure.

On the other hand, you (general "you") don't have the right to hide things from a legal search warrant, which is what high-level encryption basically does allows for now. It's like... well, it's like something that doesn't have a good analogy to the physical world, which makes it hard to talk about.

On the third hand, most digital searches aren't actually accompanied by warrants. Which is definitely Not Okay.

Of course not, and just like if you buried your phone in a secret location the court can compel you to turn it over. The problem is the government doesn't want to deal with you and feels the manufacturer should be able to get your data for them. Because unlike the company, you might put up a fight
 

Iolo

Member
I thought both Cruz and Rand had good nights. Trump as well actually. Everyone else was forgettable.

Except for Carly's giant fucking cross necklace. I kept imagining people bringing her cross necklaces and she kept going "no bigger!" until she finally settled on the huge one we saw tonight. That thing was ridiculous.

I think she picked it up from Hot Topic.

edit: ok pretty much this: http://www.hottopic.com/product/lovesick-black-purple-stone-gothic-cross-necklace/10447619.html
 
This seems to be Trump's best debate since the first one in terms of media attention. In the aftermaths of other ones people like Rubio or Fiorina got a ton of coverage, but here it doesn't look like anyone is talking about much other than Trump. The debates are an opportunity for the other candidates to control the news cycle for a bit, but right now it's still all Trump.
 
This seems to be Trump's best debate since the first one in terms of media attention. In the aftermaths of other ones people like Rubio or Fiorina got a ton of coverage, but here it doesn't look like anyone is talking about much other than Trump. The debates are an opportunity for the other candidates to control the news cycle for a bit, but right now it's still all Trump.

What I don't understand is the likes of Christie and Fiorina doubling down on what hasn't been working.
 

Tarkus

Member
Can anyone deny Rubio got smashed?
Myself, Brit Hume, Bret Baier, Howard Kurtz, Krauthammer, other Fox pundits, several CNN pundits.

I think Politifact is going to show pants-on-fire for Cruz tomorrow about not supporting immigration at the time of the gang of 8 bill. More details tomorrow.
 
Personally I thought Rand Paul did very well, but his his libertarianism works right now with a radicalized base. On substance once again he was on point. Regime change in the middle ease is almost always a failure, arming "moderates" almost never works, the region would be better off with Saddamn/Qadaffi/Assad/etc.

In terms of optics and appealing to the radicalized base...I thought Christie did the best amongst that crowd. Very forceful, and once again pulled off a potent riff about no one caring about Washington bickering.

In terms of losers I thought Rubio was wounded. He's gone quite a while without many mentions of his immigration record, but tonight Rand and Cruz hammered him on it. Voters in the early states got a preview of the nonstop Gang Of 8 attacks they'll be hearing over the coming months.

Speaking of Cruz...he didn't really elevate above the competition. His riffs often felt canned and not nearly as natural as he's sounded in the past. I don't think he hurt himself with Iowa/SC voters but I think it's clear an establishment candidate could beat him elsewhere. The problem...who will that be, assuming Rubio falls due to immigration? Bush did well tonight but I don't believe he can rebound.

Trump...whatever. His supporters love his shit. I thought his answers were as empty as always.
 
Rubio getting hammered about the one thing that makes him relevant nationally is scary. Dudes a total slimeball with shit policy, but he's seen as a RINO by the base cause of immigration.
 
Rubio getting hammered about the one thing that makes him relevant nationally is scary. Dudes a total slimeball with shit policy, but he's seen as a RINO by the base cause of immigration.

I'm still not sure how he is supposed to survive the inevitable carpet bomb of ads tying him to Obama and amnesty when he can't even deflect the issue well in a debate where is he given time to respond.
 
I'm still not sure how he is supposed to survive the inevitable carpet bomb of ads tying him to Obama and amnesty when he can't even deflect the issue well in a debate where is he given time to respond.

If the assumption that he's not trying to win this cycle has any worth, it could just be a long play.
 
What's the basis for that assumption? He is retiring from the senate and has no books or speaking engagements to sell

I've seen it be floated, in here among other places, that he's not in this years race to win. The evidence being his super shitty ground game. Maybe he runs for governor and then tries again in 2024. Hopefully after the GOP has moderated itself slightly.

The again, maybe he just thinks establishment support is all he needs right now and there's no reason to damage his brand nationally like the rest.
 
One of the most pathetic things I've seen this year. If not for Hewitt's war crimes=leadership line of questions, it would be the worst moment of the night.

Carson did some homework this time but eh, still sounded like a fool. Good to see GOP voters are no longer fast tracking him to success, and instead are giving him the support he deserves: not much.
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
It wouldn't surprise me if it were someone like Martin O'Malley. I also could see someone like Al Franken taking up the job considering he went from a Supreme Court decision victory in 2008--a year that was great for Dems--to winning by 11 points in 2014--a year that was absolutely terrible for dems, and he did it by running a campaign that didn't pander to Independents and Moderate Republicans, but by stressing the accomplishments of the Democratic Party.

But it will probably end up being Kirsten Gillibrand.


Gillibrand has presidential ambitions, and the chair is not a good path to that. Mind you, she'd not be much of an improvement on DWS anyway. They're cut from the same political cloth, Gillibrand is just better at it.
 

daedalius

Member
Here's Ben Carson talking about children not liking him for neurosurgery, saying that killing innocents is the gentle way to fight wars, and boasting about his tolerance for literal baby killing: http://edition.cnn.com/videos/polit...nn/video/playlists/2016-presidential-debates/

I think that's what he's saying, anyway, but he's always baffling.

Sounded like he was saying it was just better to kill them, the children, because it's better for the "big picture"

Pretty disgusting
 
It wouldn't surprise me if it were someone like Martin O'Malley. I also could see someone like Al Franken taking up the job considering he went from a Supreme Court decision victory in 2008--a year that was great for Dems--to winning by 11 points in 2014--a year that was absolutely terrible for dems, and he did it by running a campaign that didn't pander to Independents and Moderate Republicans, but by stressing the accomplishments of the Democratic Party.

But it will probably end up being Kirsten Gillibrand.
Seems like R.T. Rybak (former Mayor of Minneapolis) would be the most likely, he's the next in line.
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
Seems like R.T. Rybak (former Mayor of Minneapolis) would be the most likely, he's the next in line.

Insofar as it is possible to do the job of chair well, I think Rybak would do a good job. However, he won't be appointed if Clinton wins; his open reprimand of DWS has damaged his standing in the Clinton camp.
 
Rubio getting hammered about the one thing that makes him relevant nationally is scary. Dudes a total slimeball with shit policy, but he's seen as a RINO by the base cause of immigration.

The reason Democrats don't want to go up against Rubio is privately everybody believes and knows that Rubio wants the immigration bill. So, Latino voters might take a leap of faith and give him some support thinking he will push for immigration reform with a Republican Senate/House as President if he gets their support.
 

Maledict

Member
Fascinating how different Politicos take on the debate was. According to Politico:

1) Rubio won hands down, and is the Repiblican Obama. In fact, he's better than Obama was at this stage apparently!

2) Trump failed completely, and looked unhinged.

Politico has never been the most neutral of sources, but it really feels like they have just become the establishment spokesperson at this point. Makes sense, as every single contact and connection they have will be tin the establishment, but a bit of a shame considering what their reporting was like back in 2008.
 
Safes aren't a working analogy, though. Safes are encryption with a backdoor, or at least a compromised structure. They can, if they have to, force their way in.

And yeah, deliberately hiding evidence most definitely counts as obstruction as justice. That's not crazy, that's just closing a deeply obvious loophole :p

So can encryption. Just a matter of how long or hard it'll be. or not, apparently. Still firmly under the umbrella of the accused refusing to provide information in my view, however.
We'll just fiercely disagree on the second bit :p

Rubio getting hammered about the one thing that makes him relevant nationally is scary. Dudes a total slimeball with shit policy, but he's seen as a RINO by the base cause of immigration.

Writing was on the wall on that happening, tbqh
 

dabig2

Member
Rick Perry got demolished for his moderate stance on immigration last election, and he was a Texan white guy stereotype.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dPND738X634

He was DONE after that. Done. He was leading the polls the entire month of August and September until that debate happened (he was the original "not Romney" of that primary) and then he fell off a cliff the next day.

Rubio already at a disadvantage for being hispanic.
 

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Fascinating how different Politicos take on the debate was. According to Politico:

1) Rubio won hands down, and is the Repiblican Obama. In fact, he's better than Obama was at this stage apparently!

2) Trump failed completely, and looked unhinged.

Politico has never been the most neutral of sources, but it really feels like they have just become the establishment spokesperson at this point. Makes sense, as every single contact and connection they have will be tin the establishment, but a bit of a shame considering what their reporting was like back in 2008.

Wat

The complete opposite happened. The establishment must really hate Trump.
 
Fascinating how different Politicos take on the debate was. According to Politico:

1) Rubio won hands down, and is the Repiblican Obama. In fact, he's better than Obama was at this stage apparently!

2) Trump failed completely, and looked unhinged.

Politico has never been the most neutral of sources, but it really feels like they have just become the establishment spokesperson at this point. Makes sense, as every single contact and connection they have will be tin the establishment, but a bit of a shame considering what their reporting was like back in 2008.
It's narrative building. Instead of watching this naturally progress they have found their story - young Rubio surging ahead of the madness to lead the race - regardless of the facts on the ground. This seems rooted in the belief that those ahead of him simply cannot win, and those behind are too damaged to rebound. Not a bad taken given history but this is a totally different republican base.

If you follow far right commentators and "thinkers" on that side, the take on Rugio was pretty unanimous: his campaign was damaged last night. After multiple debates where he avoided the issue, immigration finally rose to take its toll on him. He said he learned a lesson from the 2013 fight. Conservatives heard something else: he trusted Obama on immigration. It doesn't matter that he learned his lesson, the first sin is enough to sink him with these people. Ads about the Gang of 8 will dominate the airwaves in states with radicalized electorates; Iowa and South Carolina especially.

Obama started from behind and slowly inched ahead with the help of a glowing media. The media is glowing for Rubio too, but the facts on the ground as well as the campaign staffs couldn't be more different. Obama had the key to multiple important democrat demographics - he simply had to demonstrate he was a real contender for them to fully come home to him. What key republican demographic is going to propel Rubio? Better yet how is his weak campaign even going to put him in position to win, or to survive turbulence like Obama's campaign did? Obama fundamentally changed the democrat race. Rubio hasn't done that with the republican race. Trump has, actually.
 

Farmboy

Member
Obama fundamentally changed the democrat race. Rubio hasn't done that with the republican race. Trump has, actually.

This is key as well. No matter how much the media wants Rubio to be the next Obama, they know that ratings-wise, it's Trump. Obama was the story viewers couldn't get enough of, so the media couldn't help but cover it. The difference may be that, unlike Obama whom they liked a lot, many outlets seem to have already gotten sick and tired of the Trump hype. But they know what's good for them. So the coverage continues while the tone has gotten more negative... which only helps Trumps anti-establishment credentials.
 

HylianTom

Banned
You can practically hear the fapping over at FreeRepublic this morning over how Cruz and Trump treated each other last night.
trumpcruzpeaceaccord1.jpg


Im wondering when (if?) the media will ever start to openly question the existence of a strategic alliance between the two; this is a pretty major undercurrent at this point, as these two sometimes have more than 50% of the vote in polling.

And for what it's worth, Cruz has begun to cash-in on Trump calling him a "maniac;" now available from his campaign shop:
 
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