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[danm999]

Yeah I can definitely envisage there being visibility problems with that.

 

[NeoXChaos]

On the other hand, if it goes

Iowa: Cruz
New Hampshire: Trump
South Carolina: Trump or Cruz

Does Rubio or anyone else still have a shot going into Super Tuesday, or is Cruz already solidified as the default anti-Trump vote?

well in conversations today with Nate, Harry and the 538 gang yes but it comes with a huge gamble. Basically its road of "survival" till March 15th to rack up wins in winner take all states like FL and the midwest like IL, OH etc.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/marco-rubio-overrated-underrated-or-properly-rated/

natesilver: He needs to be the top establishment candidate standing. He might also need Cruz to not win New Hampshire. Cruz sweeping Iowa and New Hampshire — and presumably then South Carolina — would make him a real front-runner, obviously. But even so, the establishment isn’t likely to concede the race so easily. And the media will want a long, competitive contest too.

clare.malone: So Rubio coming in third would never be OK for him? (Trump, Cruz finishing ahead in this scenario.) He needs to beat one of those guys?

==

micah: But here’s my point: Rubio looks great on paper — he has a “dominant strategy” — but there are a lot of scenarios in which he gets beat in Iowa, beat in New Hampshire and beat in South Carolina. At some point, looking good on paper, or being the shiniest establishment-approved loser, isn’t worth much.

natesilver: OK, but let’s work backward instead of forward here. Indulge me for a second.

clare.malone: Boxing metaphor??

natesilver: Suppose Rubio concludes that the establishment really has no other choice than to back him. Or at least no other good choice. Sure, Rubio has flaws, but they’re probably more manageable than Christie’s, Bush’s or Kasich’s. Furthermore, Rubio knows that the calendar becomes pretty good for him in March once you get into some larger, more diverse states.

At that point, it becomes a game of surviving until March. And how do you do that when you’re not inherently a great fit for any of Iowa, New Hampshire or South Carolina? You do it by keeping expectations modest so a few second- and third-place finishes look pretty good.

And maybe by winning Nevada.

micah: But expectations aren’t modest, are they?

natesilver: They’ve become a lot more modest after all the negative stories we’ve seen on Rubio recently!

clare.malone: Managing expectations. The age old tale. So we have come to the ultimate conclusion that he is … swimming along just as he has planned it all along?

micah: How low can his expectations be? Rubio is No.1 in betting markets.

harry: I don’t know. I don’t know. What is Rubio’s base? What is it? I’ve seen a lot of stories about how Bill Clinton didn’t win Iowa or New Hampshire and then won the nomination anyway. But remember, Clinton had the South. Not only that, but he had African-American voters. Who does Rubio have? It’s not like he has the South. (Granted, the South is more establishment-friendly than people give it credit for.)

natesilver: Well, Rubio might benefit from the delegate math. As we’ve written, there are disproportionately many delegates in blue and purple states, relative to the number of Republicans who will turn out.

micah: See, I think Harry’s question gets at the potential problem for Rubio: Good on paper, less impressive when you look at the chess board.

natesilver: Unless he’s playing 13-dimensional chess. [inhales bong hit]

harry: Clearly, you have.

clare.malone: Can I cut through all this, not least because I really have to use the ladies room and it’s much farther away from the debate stage? What we’re all saying here is, “Dunno, could be Rubio! Gotta wait and see how the next month plays out, where the party establishment decides to rest their laurels!”

 

[B-Dubs]

well in conversations today with Nate, Harry and the 538 gang yes but it comes with a huge gamble. Basically its road of "survival" till March 15th to rack up wins in winner take all states like FL and the midwest like IL, OH etc.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/marco-rubio-overrated-underrated-or-properly-rated/

So the plan for Rubio is the Guliani gambit?

 

[Basileus777]

So Rubio just has to survive until those blue and purple states....where Trump dominates the polls? Rubio needs Trump to wane, but that'd give Cruz a huge advantage by letting him rack up wins in in the early states and the South. It's becoming very difficult to figure out how Rubio could win this.

 

[danm999]

Does Rubio particularly want the nomination? He chose to get in this go around even though there was a mega candidate from his own state who would suck up all the oxygen and cash. I mean the NYT was describing his campaign as "seasoned but lean" from the get go.

You read his announcement speech and it's all about the rhetoric of tomorrow and potential like he's the filler for some GOP effort to reach out to Hispanics and moderates, with no real forceful here and now stuff about how his campaign is operating out of Starbucks in certain states.

I'm sure behind the scenes there are a ton of GOP fluffers trying to get him into full gear but I just still believe he went into it assuming it would go to Bush or Christie and is sort of the reluctant standard bearer of the establishment who secretly doesn't want his career cut short after Trump humiliates him.

 

[lenovox1]

I'm sure behind the scenes there are a ton of GOP fluffers trying to get him into full gear but I just still believe he went into it assuming it would go to Bush or Christie and is sort of the reluctant standard bearer of the establishment who secretly doesn't want his career cut short after Trump humiliates him.

If that's a secret, it's an open one.

 

[PhoenixDark]

I don't see how Rubio can be saved by blue states, as if republicans there are sane. Michigan is a "blue state" yet has some of the most radical republicans in the Midwest. Same with Wisconsin. It seems to me that Cruz would do quite well with them. And if I'm wrong about Trump and he's still viable by the time blue states arrive, he'd certainly do well in these states. Lots of lower and working class whites who resent their inner cities.

 

[Drakeon]

I don't see how Rubio can be saved by blue states, as if republicans there are sane. Michigan is a "blue state" yet has some of the most radical republicans in the Midwest. Same with Wisconsin. It seems to me that Cruz would do quite well with them. And if I'm wrong about Trump and he's still viable by the time blue states arrive, he'd certainly do well in these states. Lots of lower and working class whites who resent their inner cities.

Same in California, just because we're a blue state and republicans are the minority does not mean our republicans are more moderate. There is just less of them.

 

[Basileus777]

I don't see how Rubio can be saved by blue states, as if republicans there are sane. Michigan is a "blue state" yet has some of the most radical republicans in the Midwest. Same with Wisconsin. It seems to me that Cruz would do quite well with them. And if I'm wrong about Trump and he's still viable by the time blue states arrive, he'd certainly do well in these states. Lots of lower and working class whites who resent their inner cities.

I suppose they'd be counting on the winner take all states, but as you say, there's little indicating that Rubio is especially strong there, and he'd be quite vulnerable to a Cruz or Trump coming into the later races with momentum and a strong front runner narrative. The anti-immigration message that is dominating this cycle resonates well beyond the South and it's Rubio most damning weakness.

 

[thepotatoman]

Does Rubio particularly want the nomination? He chose to get in this go around even though there was a mega candidate from his own state who would suck up all the oxygen and cash. I mean the NYT was describing his campaign as "seasoned but lean" from the get go.

You read his announcement speech and it's all about the rhetoric of tomorrow and potential like he's the filler for some GOP effort to reach out to Hispanics and moderates, with no real forceful here and now stuff about how his campaign is operating out of Starbucks in certain states.

I'm sure behind the scenes there are a ton of GOP fluffers trying to get him into full gear but I just still believe he went into it assuming it would go to Bush or Christie and is sort of the reluctant standard bearer of the establishment who secretly doesn't want his career cut short after Trump humiliates him.

I think the original plan was for him to be vice-president. Hard to say how much he actually wants to be president.

https://youtu.be/jGApDZF8vJA?t=145

 

[Holmes]

On the other hand, if it goes

Iowa: Cruz
New Hampshire: Trump
South Carolina: Trump or Cruz

Does Rubio or anyone else still have a shot going into Super Tuesday, or is Cruz already solidified as the default anti-Trump vote?

Rubio has no chance if this happens, especially if he's a distant third in more than one of those states... and if he's fourth? Forget it, He'll probably hang on until he loses Florida, though.

If this happens, Trump needs to make it through March 1st and then he should be in a good position, because March 1st is the majority of Southern states where Cruz will do well. He needs to keep it competitive, maybe even win a southern state or two. After that, there are not much Southern states left, but there are plenty of Northeastern ones where Trump will do very well, and Western amd Midwestern ones where he's been performing well (Illinois, Ohio). And Florida and Ohio are winner-take-all on March 15th.

Massachusetts numbers for Republicans, conducted after the debate:

Donald Trump – 40%
Marco Rubio – 17%
Ted Cruz - 12%
Ben Carson – 7%
Jeb Bush – 5%
Rand Paul – 3%
Chris Christie – 2%
Carly Fiorina – 1%
John Kasich – 1%
Other – 1%
Undecided – 11%

http://overtimepolitics.com/trump-takes-substantial-23-point-lead-in-massachusetts-40-17-over-rubio/

 

[lednerg]

Which GOP candidate loses the most House seats for them? Gotta be Trump, right?

 

[Mario]

Which GOP candidate loses the most House seats for them? Gotta be Trump, right?

Only if the GOP doesn't also run a third candidate I imagine.

If just Clinton and Trump are on the ballot then I'd think down ticket races would fall more in the Dems favour than if there is an establishment Republican also running because they wouldn't be more explicitly associated with Trump.

 

[Yellowtail]

CNN/ORC (12/17-12/21)

Trump 39% (+3)
Cruz 18% (+2)
Carson 10% (-4)
Rubio 10% (-2)
Christie 5% (+1)
Paul 4% (+3)
Bush 3% (-)
Huckabee 2% (-)
Kasich 2% (-)
Fiorina 1% (-2)

 

[QuiteWhittle]

Which GOP candidate loses the most House seats for them? Gotta be Trump, right?

Cruz, maybe. Many toss-up/Lean R House seats are in the northeast where Cruz is a spectacularly bad fit.

 

[Y2Kev]

My friend took a picture of this car up in Mass a few weeks ago

So does he not want to impeach obama?

 

[danm999]

CNN/ORC (12/17-12/21)

Trump 39% (+3)
Cruz 18% (+2)
Carson 10% (-4)
Rubio 10% (-2)
Christie 5% (+1)
Paul 4% (+3)
Bush 3% (-)
Huckabee 2% (-)
Kasich 2% (-)
Fiorina 1% (-2)

Rubio still not happening.

And holy shit at Jeb trailing Rand Paul.

 

[Manmademan]

Only if the GOP doesn't also run a third candidate I imagine.

If just Clinton and Trump are on the ballot then I'd think down ticket races would fall more in the Dems favour than if there is an establishment Republican also running because they wouldn't be more explicitly associated with Trump.

Wouldn't a problem here be that the third candidate wouldn't actually be able to run as a republican? They'd have to run as "something else?"

With the base lining up half behind Trump, and half behind whatever this independent party is, how does this not wildly exacerbate a party split?

 

[Coriolanus]

C'mon guys, ain't no way the republicans will back a third party candidate. Might as well shut down the party if you do that.

Yeah I can definitely envisage there being visibility problems with that.

Well, that's your problem right there: you're trying to look backwards, and people that do that are the reason why the country is in the shitter. Trump supporters know and understand that the only thing that matters is looking ahead. That's what winners do.

 

[HylianTom]

C'mon guys, ain't no way the republicans will back a third party candidate. Might as well shut down the party if you do that.

Agreed. That's fanciful, fun talk. I'd guess that in the event of a Trump nomination, they'll shift resources to limiting downticket effects.. although separating the party brand away from the party's flagship candidate is really damn difficult, especially now that campaigns are so nationalized.

..

And holy hell, a third poll showing essentially the same thing. It's now December 23rd - getting pretty late in the hour. Just as we inch closer to the point where poll predictability improves, Trump and Cruz strengthen their positions. Squee, indeed!

We're starting to see more articles asking what the hell Rubio is doing, wondering when certain candidates are dropping, speculating on the Bush campaign's fate, hoping that Trump's ground org is subpar, etc. People are going to leave work for their break with schlong on the brain. What a lovely holiday sentiment - there'll be some great awkward jokes at family gatherings across the nation.

 

[Roland_Gunner]

CNN/ORC (12/17-12/21)

Trump 39% (+3)
Cruz 18% (+2)
Carson 10% (-4)
Rubio 10% (-2)
Christie 5% (+1)
Paul 4% (+3)
Bush 3% (-)
Huckabee 2% (-)
Kasich 2% (-)
Fiorina 1% (-2)

I was one of the first Cruz backers on this board and its hard to see Trump flame out this late. Dean is 2004 is the only parallel out there and his support was much lower than Trump's at this stage. At the end of 2003 he topped out at 23 - 24%, so Trump right now is running 15 points ahead of that. IMO Cruz has to win IA and either NH or SC to combat this kind of national lead. If Rubio can't get at least a strong second in IA or NH he's sunk.

 

[Cheebo]

Cruz, maybe. Many toss-up/Lean R House seats are in the northeast where Cruz is a spectacularly bad fit.

I agree, Cruz. Congressional candidates can more easily argue they don't have anything to do with Trump and think he is just as wacko as everyone else. Because in all honesty, its true I imagine most congressional GOP nominees will think Trump is batshit insane. MUCH harder to do that with a sitting senator like Cruz.

 

[Bowdz]

And holy shit at Jeb trailing Rand Paul.

He's right where he wants to be.

 

[HylianTom]

I was one of the first Cruz backers on this board and its hard to see Trump flame out this late. Dean is 2004 is the only parallel out there and his support was much lower than Trump's at this stage. At the end of 2003 he topped out at 23 - 24%, so Trump right now is running 15 points ahead of that. IMO Cruz has to win IA and either NH or SC to combat this kind of national lead. If Rubio can't get at least a strong second in IA or NH he's sunk.

I'm gonna laugh like a loon if it ends-up being Christie who gets a decent third-place finish in New Hampshire, prompting an establishment panic to cobble-together something resembling a Christie campaign infrastructure for later states.

 

[FiggyCal]

He's right where he wants to be.

Right. If you really think about it: no one expects Bush to perform well when he's already doing so awful. He's just having fun. And that's all that really matters.

 

[danm999]

Right. If you really think about it: no one expects Bush to perform well when he's already doing so awful. He's just having fun. And that's all that really matters.

God the happy warrior image Bush's campaign has been trying to push in response to his complete implosion and zombification is sad as shit.

 

[Black Republican]

if anyone wants to drop out its best to do it during xmas to save embarassement


looking at you bushy

 

[Yellowtail]

I'm gonna laugh like a loon if it ends-up being Christie who gets a decent third-place finish in New Hampshire, prompting an establishment panic to cobble-together something resembling a Christie campaign infrastructure for later states.

Yup.

“The story that’s unwritten is that Rubio/Cruz is a wasted strategy. The real fight that will dominate January is Christie/Rubio. One of them will be mortally wounded after NH,” one unaffiliated Washington Republican said via email. “The most immediate threat to [Rubio’s] getting the nomination right now is Christie… If Christie finishes ahead of Rubio in the Granite state, it is a near mortal wound (and conversely, if Rubio ahead of Christie, it IS a mortal wound). Cruz is a problem later … but right now Christie is an immediate threat (and holds the bonus of crossover votes plus $). If Rubio finishes fourth in New Hampshire “a very panicked establishment and donor set will throw their weight in that direction – especially if Cruz finishes 1st and IA and Trump 2nd or 3rd.”

And Christie is likely to see a further polling surge, now that the January debates will be winnowed to six candidates (Trump/Cruz/Rubio/Carson/Jeb/Christie).

 

[Ignatz Mouse]

well in conversations today with Nate, Harry and the 538 gang yes but it comes with a huge gamble. Basically its road of "survival" till March 15th to rack up wins in winner take all states like FL and the midwest like IL, OH etc.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/marco-rubio-overrated-underrated-or-properly-rated/

I defend Nate and crew plenty, but this really seems like reaching.

 

[Y2Kev]

I watched the video and I think someone flopped. They said overrated but then agreed with the conventional wisdom.

I fear Christie. He's horrible.

 

[RustyNails]

What are the next debate's guidelines? Can Jeb even make it?

 

[Veritigo_X]

What are the next debate's guidelines? Can Jeb even make it?

The debate guidelines have been a joke this primary. If the network wants Jeb to be there, he'll be there.

 

[RustyNails]

The debate guidelines have been a joke this primary. If the network wants Jeb to be there, he'll be there.

I guess. I want to see Jeb's struggle

 

[B-Dubs]

What are the next debate's guidelines? Can Jeb even make it?

Oh, hell make it. Like the rules even matter.

 

[Black Republican]

RNC isnt even saving Ben Carson

i swear they wanted him fail anyways

 

[danm999]

I'm not even sure the RNC would know how to help or hinder Ben Carson's campaign given how bizarre it was.

 

[RustyNails]

No ones making a Trump thread for the new poll? Also embedded in that CNN poll, Trump won the debate:

Trump 33%
Cruz 28%
Rubio 13%
Christie 6%
Jeb 1%

 

[Makai]

Why does Nate always look so terrible in video? It's like he gets drunk during the day and sleeps for a couple hours under his desk at night.

 

[Makai]

No ones making a Trump thread for the new poll? Also embedded in that CNN poll, Trump won the debate:

Trump 33%
Cruz 28%
Rubio 13%
Christie 6%
Jeb 1%

Jeb is the 1%

 

[Coriolanus]

I'm not even sure the RNC would know how to help or hinder Ben Carson's campaign given how bizarre it was.

The only person that could destroy Ben Carson was Ben Carson. Fortunatelly, Ben Carson apparently fucking hates Ben Carson and is hellbent on destroying everything Ben Carson has ever built.

 

[Makai]

What are the next debate's guidelines? Can Jeb even make it?

It's going to be Trump, Cruz, Rubio, Carson, Christie, Jeb unless polls change dramatically.

http://www.businessinsider.com/fox-business-gop-debate-rules-polls-2015-12

Kasich might be able to squeak in.

 

[RustyNails]

It's going to be Trump, Cruz, Rubio, Carson, Christie, Jeb unless polls change dramatically.

http://www.businessinsider.com/fox-business-gop-debate-rules-polls-2015-12

Kasich might be able to squeak in.

Goddammit. I dont know about you guys but I fear Christie more than anyone else from that group. It sucks to see him rising.

 

[Roland_Gunner]

Goddammit. I dont know about you guys but I fear Christie more than anyone else from that group. It sucks to see him rising.

Christie's too abrasive and too corrupt to win the general. He'd do better than Cruz or Trump but Rubio's still the only Republican candidate with the profile to beat HRC.

 

[Frank the Great]

Goddammit. I dont know about you guys but I fear Christie more than anyone else from that group. It sucks to see him rising.

I feel the same way.

 

[Joe Shlabotnik]

Goddammit. I dont know about you guys but I fear Christie more than anyone else from that group. It sucks to see him rising.

He's got a low ceiling.

 

[NYCmetsfan]

@RandPaul
.@CarlyFiorina has ZERO trouble making it back from commercial breaks @HillaryClinton. Just saying. #Festivus #waronwomensrooms

good to see trumps sexist attacks getting some more legs with other candidates!

Goddammit. I dont know about you guys but I fear Christie more than anyone else from that group. It sucks to see him rising.

Don't. Rubio is the only one I'm worried about.

edit:

Holy shit this is actually a thing on the right

 

[B-Dubs]

Christie's too abrasive and too corrupt to win the general.

Yep, you guys keep overestimating him. He's a grade-A asshole and while that may play with the GOP in certain states, it means he's DOA in a general. Christie is a ticking time bomb, someone will piss him off and then he'll say something stupid and that'll be it.

 

[RustyNails]

Yep, you guys keep overestimating him. He's a grade-A asshole and while that may play with the GOP in certain states, it means he's DOA in a general. Christie is a ticking time bomb, someone will piss him off and then he'll say something stupid and that'll be it.

I dunno. His sermonizing straight to the camera is dumb enough to work with Americans. Take nothing for granted

 

[danm999]

I remember in Double Down, Romney's team vetted Christie for VP in 2012 and the conclusion based on all that they found was;

 

[Makai]

I dunno. His sermonizing straight to the camera is dumb enough to work with Americans. Take nothing for granted

https://twitter.com/michaelpachter/status/676950159138361345