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[RustyNails]

Chaffee and Webb provided most lulz during the debate...gonna be boring without them

 

[Aaron Strife]

Alright, I've been hesitant to get hype about this. But pack it up:

NEW ORLEANS —Sen. David Vitter was a passenger in a vehicle that was involved in a crash Friday afternoon in Jefferson Parish, authorities said.

The crash was reported at 12:05 p.m. near the intersection of Veterans Memorial Boulevard and Carrolton Avenue in Metairie.

Col. John Fortunato with the Jefferson Parish Sheriff’s Office said Vitter was a passenger in a 2006 Mercedes-Benz, which was driven by 36-year-old Courtney Gaustella, from New Orleans.

 

[Makai]

Bloomberg had an interesting breakdown of where that funding is coming from also. Virtually none of Jeb!'s campaign dollars are from small donors. He has no grassroots support for that campaign at all.

Whaaaaa?!

 

[Grexeno]

Alright, I've been hesitant to get hype about this. But pack it up:

That is probably exactly what it sounds like.

 

[Manmademan]

Whaaaaa?!

I've been saying this forever. Bush's fundraising is abysmal. Actual voters hate him. His campaign is being propped up at all levels by a relatively small number of donors that give a disproportionate amount of money- mostly people from his father and brother's networks.

Those donors decide to back another candidate instead and his campaign implodes. Nobody else is in this position. Interestingly enough, Rubio's fundraising is also fairly anemic and shows the same problems- though not to the extent Jeb! has.

 

[DOWN]

Remember last night when a few of us said it was time to chip-in some cash? Apparently we weren't the only ones to have this sentiment.

I was worried whether her chill success would translate through the media to those who didn't actually watch her for extended periods but I'm glad a significant amount of people were tuned in to at least hear how great she did upon the wrap-up and that it generated some good results for her.

She would make an awesome president.

 

[Plinko]

I've been saying he'd be out after the third debate, assuming he doesn't do any better than he has been in the previous two. Hell, even if rubio or Cruz has a breakout night he's done. I continue to stand by that prediction.

Jeb bush is SUPER dependent on PAC dollars and high dollar contributors. They pull out and his campaign is fucked. He can't fundraise himself out of a paper bag on his own.

The magnitude of those small donations is why people should be afraid of Carson. Eventually, the big money will flow to him, too.

 

[Yellowtail]

Virtually none of Jeb!'s campaign dollars are from small donors. He has no grassroots support for that campaign at all.

This is utterly unsustainable.

National Review looked at the big dollar (>$2000):smaller dollar (<$200) ratios for candidates in Q3 preceding the general election:

2016: Clinton 3:1, Sanders 1:33; Carson 1:12, Cruz 1:2, Bush 15:1, Rubio 2:1, Fiorina 1:3, Trump 1:7
2012 Romney 7:1 Obama 1:3
2008 McCain 2:1 Obama 1:1

The ratios of big- to small-donor money have fallen. The importance of small-donor money has grown. Even the famously plutocratic Romney raised a higher percentage of his money from small donors than did George W. Bush in 2000. Obama&#8217;s ratio of small-donor to big-donor money in 2012 was 18 times higher than Gore&#8217;s in 2000.

Jeb Bush cannot win. It&#8217;s not just that his ratio of big-donor to small-dollar donations is vastly out of sync with the rest of the GOP and Democratic fields today. (Even Romney&#8217;s ratio of small-donor to big-donor dollars was more than twice Jeb&#8217;s.) Jeb&#8217;s big-donor to small-donor ratio is 15:1. No candidate has ever won the nomination with such a heavy reliance on big donors, even at a time when big-donor money made up a much larger percentage of total fundraising. For the rest of the GOP field, the ratio of big-donor to small-donor money is 1:1.6.

Jeb! makes Romney look like a grassroots phenomenon.

 

[RustyNails]

Alright, I've been hesitant to get hype about this. But pack it up:

So basically Bel Edwards will have to face Vitter's penis in the election. This guy is done.

 

[Manmademan]

The magnitude of those small donations is why people should be afraid of Carson. Eventually, the big money will flow to him, too.

I'm not entirely positive about that. I think the big money will go elsewhere, but probably to Rubio (you can see them propping up his candidacy disporportionately also) or Cruz.

the establishment doesn't want Carson OR Trump anywhere NEAR the nomination. They'd get obliterated in the general, and set the party back decades. Trump might be toxic, but Carson has problems forming coherent sentences.

 

[DOWN]

Never in my life did I imagine a neurosurgeon could be so anti-science and disconnected from reality as Ben Carson's baffling quotable moments have revealed him to be.

 

[Iolo]

Yeah you can't run a field operation out of starbucks. I think they're being frugal about money, but I also think that will change once the losers drop out and its only Trump, Carson and Cruz remaining.

But, then they run into the same issue as Biden, you can't wait so long to build a field operation.

 

[Aaron Strife]

That is probably exactly what it sounds like.

It's cool though, jesus forgave him

I hope he resigns and Landrieu steps up to replace him.

 

[Manmademan]

Never in my life did I imagine a neurosurgeon could be so anti-science and disconnected from reality as Ben Carson's baffling quotable moments have revealed him to be.

People like that are more common than you'd think. A professional degree doesn't guarantee the individual is capable of critical thinking, or immune from crackpot conspiracy theories. After all, this woman is a lawyer AND a dentist that speaks five languages fluently.

 

[Officerrob]

MSNBC is reporting that even though Trump blamed that retweet on an intern, interns can't actually access Trump's twitter account

 

[Manmademan]

MSNBC is reporting that even though Trump blamed that retweet on an intern, interns can't actually access Trump's twitter account

no one is surprised here. "It was an intern" is the oldest excuse in the book.

Jeb! makes Romney look like a grassroots phenomenon.

Yep. The base didn't *mind* Mitt Romney, they just weren't that passionate about him. They would flock to someone more exciting temporarily and give them a boost, but usually liked romney well enough to keep him at a consistent #2 when that happened.

For some reason the base actively LOATHES Jeb Bush. Romney was never in this position. General name recognition is the only reason he's polling as high as he is- no one personally likes him enough to actually donate money. When Carly Fiorina has triple your numbers from small donors that is a massive problem. Without the "Bush" name carrying him he'd be in the basement with Jindal.

 

[ivysaur12]

Alright, I've been hesitant to get hype about this. But pack it up:

Hope he didn't pee himself.

 

[Sanjuro]

Agreed, but he doesn't have to worry about getting elected anymore.

I agree with this a bit as well.

As mentioned before, I can't hate. Romneycare helped me at a specific time which was tremendously important to me, and continues to today.

 

[Aaron Strife]

Hope he didn't pee himself.

That Depends.

 

[shinra-bansho]

Never in my life did I imagine a neurosurgeon could be so anti-science and disconnected from reality as Ben Carson's baffling quotable moments have revealed him to be.

I knew a bunch of basically evangelicals in high school who ended up in med school.

It's really not that uncommon.

I mean you don't actually need to believe in or even understand the scientific method to rote learn how body parts work together and how to cut them apart.

 

[BertramCooper]

ErasureAcer has gotten noticeably quiet.

I'm sure he's just busy or something.

 

[NeoXChaos]

ErasureAcer has gotten noticeably quiet.

I'm sure he's just busy or something.

I noticed. He is probably in hiding.

 

[FloydtheFathead]

ErasureAcer has gotten noticeably quiet.

I'm sure he's just busy or something.

Who?

Spoiler

he probably is with Kucinich's wife though so he wins in the end.

 

[benjipwns]

The IRS witch hunt is over.
No charges.

The IRS did mishandle tea party and conservative groups’ nonprofit applications, but their behavior didn’t break any laws, the Justice Department said in a letter to Congress Friday that cleared the tax agency and former senior executive Lois G. Lerner of any crimes.

Executive power was misused, an election was stolen, but no laws were broken says officials of administration that broke laws. And it's nobodies fault.

 

[Coriolanus]

the establishment doesn't want Carson OR Trump anywhere NEAR the nomination. They'd get obliterated in the general, and set the party back decades. Trump might be toxic, but Carson has problems forming coherent sentences.

Other way around: running with trump or carson is finally giving the TRUE CONSERVATIVE a run instead of the rino. After it crashes and burns, would be the quickest way to get them to give the radicals the finger and reorient the party.

Whereas allowing an establishment candidate would allow them to keep pushing what theyve always pushed for longer.

 

[NYCmetsfan]

Yeah you can't run a field operation out of starbucks. I think they're being frugal about money, but I also think that will change once the losers drop out and its only Trump, Carson and Cruz remaining.

Hillary is building for the general now. Organizing takes time and needs connections. Shes building a free army now that the GOP won't have.

 

[benjipwns]

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/phil...ntial-candidate-john-kasich/story?id=34679991

Speaking today a small town hall in Manchester, New Hampshire, Kasich said he ran into the basketball team at his hotel this morning.

"How did I know who they were?” he said. “They were really tall, okay.”

He told the business-focused crowd about the importance of job skills, then jokingly added that the 76ers haven’t had too many skills of their own lately.

"The reason why some of them make a lot of money is because they have skills,” he said. "Not too many Sixers have had that many skills lately, but they do."

 

[RustyNails]

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/phil...ntial-candidate-john-kasich/story?id=34679991

RIP

 

[User 463088]

Ugh.

I want the primaries to be over. Sooooo bad.

BF and I volunteered this evening getting flyers and shit organized for other people to go out tomorrow. This girl (who supports a certain Senator (I) who is running for President against a candidate whose name may or may not rhyme with Billary) crashes the whole thing. One of the people running for council (or might have been school board, I can't remember0 brought pizza to everyone. She cornered this guy and started beating him up over who he supported in the primary. Then called him a corporate, right winger when he said Hillary. This was after she spent the first hour telling all of us how she had the real polls and all the conspiracy theory stuff. This girl was Bernie's Reddit Personified.

: head desk over and over and over and over :

And, no, I'm not knocking all Bernie supporters. This really cool older couple is a house divided, she's for Bernie he's for Hillary. And we all had a great time. Until this girl came in. My prayer is she loses heart when the primary is over. I know that's shitty, but I can't even with her. I really can't.

 

[Macho Madness]

Other way around: running with trump or carson is finally giving the TRUE CONSERVATIVE a run instead of the rino. After it crashes and burns, would be the quickest way to get them to give the radicals the finger and reorient the party.

Whereas allowing an establishment candidate would allow them to keep pushing what theyve always pushed for longer.

Or in reality: the candidate was not conservative ENOUGH. All those people who voted for the democrat would have voted for the Republican if they'd just been conservative enough.

 

[Manmademan]

Other way around: running with trump or carson is finally giving the TRUE CONSERVATIVE a run instead of the rino. After it crashes and burns, would be the quickest way to get them to give the radicals the finger and reorient the party.

Whereas allowing an establishment candidate would allow them to keep pushing what theyve always pushed for longer.

the establishment would never do this, because presidential races have an effect on all the downballot races that happen in the same year, from senate on down to local council races and judges.

If Trump/Carson ran and got bodied by 25 point margins, the republican party would take decades to undo the damage. it's not happening.

 

[Coriolanus]

Or in reality: the candidate was not conservative ENOUGH.

Establishment would push the opposite narrative if a psycho got the nom. People like Mcconnel and Priebus can see how its fucking them longterm.

Real test would be 2018. If they repeated extremism there again and got gainz, thatd set them up for another radical pushback in 2020

the establishment would never do this, because presidential races have an effect on all the downballot races that happen in the same year, from senate on down to local council races and judges.

If Trump/Carson ran and got bodied by 25 point margins, the republican party would take decades to undo the damage. it's not happening.

Estab would never WANT them to get the nom. Outside of fuckery, they might not have a choice in the matter, at which point it becomes a matter of mminimizing your losses.

If they were pragmatic enough to admit that 16 is already lost? Cant see any other way to benefit the party and shut down the cray crays

 

[FloydtheFathead]

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/phil...ntial-candidate-john-kasich/story?id=34679991

Daammnn..

No one knocks the 76rs and the 10000 year tank

 

[NeoXChaos]

the establishment would never do this, because presidential races have an effect on all the downballot races that happen in the same year, from senate on down to local council races and judges.

If Trump/Carson ran and got bodied by 25 point margins, the republican party would take decades to undo the damage. it's not happening.

country is too polarizing for that. Maybe 55-45 but not much more than that.

 

[benjipwns]

Retro,

http://www.c-span.org/video/?154034-1/firing-line-panama-canal-treaties

Before the U.S. Senate considered their ratification in 1978, the Panama Canal Treaties were the subject of a television debate.&#8194;William F. Buckley debated for ratification and Governor Ronald Reagan debated against ratification.&#8194;

Also featuring a young Pat Buchanan, an unaged George Will and Johm McCain's dad!

Bonus, free with purchase for our Louisiana friends.

David Duke runs for Louisiana Governor in 1991:
http://www.c-span.org/video/?21627-1/louisiana-gubernatorial-debate
http://www.c-span.org/video/?22521-1/louisiana-gubernatorial-debate

David Duke announces for President in December 1991:
http://www.c-span.org/video/?23153-1/duke-announcement

David Duke withdraws from the Presidential race in April 1992:
http://www.c-span.org/video/?25722-1/duke-withdrawal

David Duke runs for Senate in 1996:
http://www.c-span.org/video/?74859-1/louisiana-senatorial-debate
http://www.c-span.org/video/?75233-1/louisiana-senatorial-debate

David Duke addresses the National Organization For European American Rights (NOFEAR):
http://www.c-span.org/video/?154890-1/europeanamerican-rights

 

[Manmademan]

Establishment would push the opposite narrative if a psycho got the nom. People like Mcconnel and Priebus can see how its fucking them longterm.

Real test would be 2018. If they repeated extremism there again and got gainz, thatd set them up for another radical pushback in 2020

Estab would never WANT them to get the nom. Outside of fuckery, they might not have a choice in the matter, at which point it becomes a matter of mminimizing your losses.

If they were pragmatic enough to admit that 16 is already lost? Cant see any other way to benefit the party and shut down the cray crays

If things got really dire I can see them pressuring the weaker members of the field to drop out, back one candidate (cruz or rubio) and just bury trump and carson under a flood of spending.

it would take massive, romney-esque 20-1 margins to do, but it's a viable strategy.

country is too polarizing for that. Maybe 55-45 but not much more than that.

Trump has huge, HUGE negatives. I can see this one happening if he was the nominee. And carson is so scary with the evangelical crap liberals and moderates would be out in force.

edit: keep in mind that Obama beat McCain in 2008 by 7 points, 53%-47.5% You think Trump would only lose to Hillary by 10? It would be a slaughter.

 

[RustyNails]

Trump is shredding Carson and Jeb

 

[Coriolanus]

If things got really dire I can see them pressuring the weaker members of the field to drop out, back one candidate (cruz or rubio) and just bury trump and carson under a flood of spending.

it would take massive, romney-esque 20-1 margins to do, but it's a viable strategy

I agree, thats what theyll most likely eventually try to do. Thing is, if a man seen as a RINO is put over there again, they will get blamed for the loss for not putting up a True Believer, and the cycle will most likely repeat itself in 18, which will once again define the rethoric for 20.

 

[RastaMentality]

Remember last night when a few of us said it was time to chip-in some cash? Apparently we weren't the only ones to have this sentiment.

Happy to be a part of this.

 

[HylianTom]

Ugh.

I want the primaries to be over. Sooooo bad.

I want primaries over if only because Hillary seems SO much better at sparring when it's against a Republican opponent.

And Maddow was promoting her interview with Hillary tonight. She said earlier this evening that one of the standout moments in the interview was on the topic of how Hillary and Obama approach Republicans - there's definitely a difference, perhaps going back to Biden's "these are our friends" comment. Really looking forward to seeing this.

 

[Manmademan]

I agree, thats what theyll most likely eventually try to do. Thing is, if a man seen as a RINO is put over there again, they will get blamed for the loss for not putting up a True Believer, and the cycle will most likely repeat itself in 18, which will once again define the rethoric for 20.

That's why it's going to be Cruz.

 

[benjipwns]

If Trump/Carson ran and got bodied by 25 point margins, the republican party would take decades to undo the damage. it's not happening.

Trump has huge, HUGE negatives. I can see this one happening if he was the nominee. And carson is so scary with the evangelical crap liberals and moderates would be out in force.

You're talking about the biggest popular vote landslide in American history essentially.

Harding (PBUH) only won with a 26 point margin. Coolidge won four years later with a 25 point margin in a three way race.

In 1922, the GOP lost 6 Senate seats and 77 House seats.
In 1926, the GOP lost 7 Senate seats and 9 House seats.

In 1938, the Democrats lost 7 Senate seats and 72 House seats. In 1942 they lost another 8 and 45. In 1946 they lost another 11 and 54 and control of both chambers.

In 1966, the Democrats lost 3 Senate seats and 47 House seats. A cycle later they lost another 5 Senate and House seats and the Presidency.

In 1974, the GOP lost 4 Senate seats and 48 House seats. A cycle later was the last time any party had a veto-proof House majority. (And Senate supermajority for an entire Congress.)

In 1986, the GOP lost 8 Senate seats and 5 House seats.

 

[Manmademan]

You're talking about the biggest popular vote landslide in American history essentially.

Harding (PBUH) only won with a 26 point margin. Coolidge won four years later with a 25 point margin in a three way race.

Yes, but we're also talking about Donald Trump in a general election. Reagan/Mondale was 18 points, give or take. That wouldn't be far off.

 

[User 463088]

I want primaries over if only because Hillary seems SO much better at sparring when it's against a Republican opponent.

And Maddow was promoting her interview with Hillary tonight. She said earlier this evening that one of the standout moments in the interview was on the topic of how Hillary and Obama approach Republicans - there's definitely a difference, perhaps going back to Biden's "these are our friends" comment. Really looking forward to seeing this.

Agreed. I can't wait to watch either. Biden's comments really pissed me off. I mean, the dude's been in the Obama White House. How could he say such shit with a straight face.

Have some news to share. My mom's a Democrat. The last time she volunteered for a campaign was in 1960 as a high school student. (She went with my grandfather who was a Union worker to volunteer and meet JFK). Anyway, she watched most of the Hillary coverage yesterday. I'd call her a soft Clinton supporter. After last night...damn. My mom opened the pocket book, donated to Hillary and has decided she wants to volunteer (as long as she doesn't have to talk to voters). That hearing did Hillary a hell of a lot of good.

 

[NeoXChaos]

Yes, but we're also talking about Donald Trump in a general election. Reagan/Mondale was 18 points, give or take. That wouldn't be far off.

and yet Republicans only picked up 16 House seats and 2 senate seats. Democrats probably gerrymandered themselves real good and/or polarization being less of a factor.

EDIT: Forgot that Reagan slaughtered Carter in 1980 which was a census. hmmm

EDIT: 27-23 in Governorships

 

[benjipwns]

Yes, but we're also talking about Donald Trump in a general election. Reagan/Mondale was 18 points, give or take. That wouldn't be far off.

Yes, and the Democrats had the Senate and then the Presidency back within two and six years respectively.

That was the point of all my post-landslide examples. None of them have destroyed a party for decades.

 

[benjipwns]

and yet Republicans only picked up 16 House seats and 2 senate seats. Democrats probably gerrymandered themselves real good and/or polarization being less of a factor.

EDIT: Forgot that Reagan slaughtered Carter in 1980 which was a census. hmmm

EDIT 2: 1978 midterm allowed Dems with 32-18 Governor advantage.

Democrats dominated states until the 2000s:

This is mostly due to the South going from 100% Democrat from 1836-1994 to competitive.

 

[Manmademan]

Yes, and the Democrats had the Senate and then the Presidency back within two and six years respectively.

That was the point of all my post-landslide examples. None of them have destroyed a party for decades.

Keep in mind that the democrats are going to take a LONG time to get the house back after catastrophic losses in 2010. I would say "decades" there (or more than 10 years, at least), definitely- though the census and gerrymandering helped to keep it that way.

as for the senate- look at what's up in 2016:

SENATORS UP FOR RE-ELECTION IN 2016

DEMOCRATS

Michael Bennet (Colorado)
Richard Blumenthal (Connecticut)
Barbara Boxer (California) retiring in 2016
Patrick Leahy (Vermont)
Barbara Mikulski (Maryland) retiring in 2016
Patty Murray (Washington)
Harry Reid (Nevada) retiring in 2016
Brian Schatz (Hawaii)
Charles Schumer (New York)
Ron Wyden (Oregon)



REPUBLICANS

Kelly Ayotte (New Hampshire)
Roy Blunt (Missouri)
John Boozman (Arkansas)
Richard Burr (North Carolina)
Dan Coats (Indiana) retiring in 2016
Mike Crapo (Idaho)
Chuck Grassley (Iowa)
John Hoeven (North Dakota)
Johnny Isakson (Georgia)
Ron Johnson (Wisconsin)
Mark Kirk (Illinois)
James Lankford (Oklahoma)
Mike Lee (Utah)
John McCain (Arizona)
Jerry Moran (Kansas)
Lisa Murkowski (Alaska)
Rand Paul (Kentucky)
Rob Portman (Ohio)
Marco Rubio (Florida) retiring in 2016
Tim Scott (South Carolina)
Richard Shelby (Alabama)
John Thune (South Dakota)
Pat Toomey (Pennsylvania)
David Vitter (Louisiana)

Republicans have waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay more vulnerable seats this time. Trump in the general means the vast majority of that is flipping democratic.

 

[User 406]

I agree, thats what theyll most likely eventually try to do. Thing is, if a man seen as a RINO is put over there again, they will get blamed for the loss for not putting up a True Believer, and the cycle will most likely repeat itself in 18, which will once again define the rethoric for 20.

Don't forget your Calvinist Prosperity Gospel shit. If the Truest of True Believers gets nominated, and loses, he was obviously just a RINO in retrospect, and God wants a real True True No For Seriously Real I'm Seriously You Guys True Believer next time.

 

[User 463088]

Best description of Carson:

"Half lidded, blissed out"

Awesome.