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PoliGAF 2015 |OT2| Pls print

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I don't think the Dems will ever vote for a GOP Speaker. "We support Paul Ryan for Speaker" just means they don't hate him (or, you know, that they're deliberately trolling Paul Ryan by telling the far right they don't hate him). They'll vote for Pelosi like always.

I guess I was more thinking ahead to the improbable situation where Ryan fails to garner enough Republican votes (which is weird b/c the reports said he had a majority of the FC and now he apparently doesn't) and what happens then. Even in the context of this crazy hypothetical coalition government they would still need to compromise on a candidate and Ryan seems like he fits the 'satisfies Republicans and doesn't infuriate Dems' standard.
 

NeoXChaos

Member
Hopefully the last 2 break our way. Don't get the Grimes number considering she got crushed by McConnell last year.

http://www.kentucky.com/2015/10/28/...l-democrats-lead.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&rh=1

Sv2Jk.AuSt.79.jpg
 
I'm not a vegetarian, but vegetarian pizzas are good shit. Never had veggie BBQ pizza though.

It's the last week they do it. They only do it in the summer months. They grill a bunch of vegetables, and then put them on their homemade crust. They also use cheddar on the crust and Sweet Baby Rays. Sooooooo good.

So, we've established tonight's drinking rules at my house:

Every time they mention Hillary, drink. Every time they lie about something, drink. Every time they say ISIS, drink. Every time someone mentions Trump, drink. Every time Trump insults someone, drink. Every time one of them pisses me off, drink. Every time they mention Ronnie Raygun, chug the shit out of whatever you have.

I-want-all-the-alcohol-gif.gif
 

pigeon

Banned
I guess I was more thinking ahead to the improbable situation where Ryan fails to garner enough Republican votes (which is weird b/c the reports said he had a majority of the FC and now he apparently doesn't) and what happens then. Even in the context of this crazy hypothetical coalition government they would still need to compromise on a candidate and Ryan seems like he fits the 'satisfies Republicans and doesn't infuriate Dems' standard.

If I were Pelosi I would just let the vote fail on the floor and #yolo out of there.

Once they pass the budget deal, if Congress is completely paralyzed for the next year because the GOP can't produce a Speaker, there's no problem for any of the Democrats.
 
This is actually kind of a big deal. Ryan needs 218 votes in the House. Today he got 200 votes among the GOP caucus. That means almost no support from the Freedom Caucus on the internal vote. Not a confidence builder.


Haha just when Boehner probably starts to think he can leave. He has to stick around until a decision is made right?
 

benjipwns

Banned
Hopefully the last 2 break our way. Don't get the Grimes number considering she got crushed by McConnell last year.

http://www.kentucky.com/2015/10/28/...l-democrats-lead.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&rh=1

Sv2Jk.AuSt.79.jpg
More important than state offices != national offices is that administrative offices != openly political offices.

Michigan Secretary of States have been GOP women since it became an elected office (including TERRI LYNN LAND) and been seen by the party as natural candidates for Governor or Senator. All have failed at this massively despite epic name recognition (their name is on all the buildings/forms/etc.) and high approval rates.

Candice Miller (who in re-election for SoS won every single county in the state) was able to sneak into the House after failing at higher office because the GOP drew her a gerrymandered as fuck district after her gubernatorial bid went nowhere. (The state party also pushed out the original candidate to make room for her.)

The same thing has been true for the GOP male Attorneys General being a dead end. Granholm had barely served one term before running for Governor. She also barely won election to the AG. She's also the only Democrat to win one of the statewide offices since 1994.

My parents live in a highly R suburb for the area (in Mike Rogers' old district) but the major township officials (Clerk, Treasurer, etc.) are Democrats because of who they are, name recognition, constituent services, etc. And those offices rarely have much to do with anything truly political. The township council is unanimous Republican, all the county commissioners are Republican, etc.

The State legislative seats for the section of town my parents are usually a part of a slight gerrymander which is why Debbie Stabenow once held the State House seat. (They can essentially connect two Democratic hubs in the area by making a corridor through to make it a +2 D State Representative district and +4 D State Senate district.) The rest of the population of the town is in GOP territory.

The constituent service thing is one reason Ron Paul lasted so long in Congress, his district isn't uniquely libertarian (it's arguably less libertarian than many other congressional districts based on Presidential/Senate voting histories) but his staff put effort into high level constituent service. The same applies for some of the other "how the fuck do they keep getting elected" House members on both sides of the aisle. When somebodies Social Security check is late, their office calls up everyone they can and makes sure the constituent knows it. (Even if the check's just delayed because of something random, the facts of the case are irrelevant. The symbolism of effort is not.)
 

benjipwns

Banned
benji, do you have dog in the race? Most people here are for Hillary, but I imagine you would prefer someone else.
Using the hypothetical that I would vote:
Hopefully Gary Johnson is the Libertarian candidate again. If not, probably Libertarian as long as it's not someone like Bob Barr again or a nutjob from the depths of the party, Badnarik was close. If so probably will vote "U.S. Taxpayer" which is the ballot line for the Constitution Party as they are the lowest in vote totals usually.

If I have to pick from one of the primary candidates in the big party:
Rand Paul, in the R primary, obviously. If Rand has dropped out, I would vote for Sanders in the D primary. If neither were still in it and I had to pick I would vote in the R primary, probably for Ted Cruz. But at that point we're from "vote from the guy you agree with 80% of the time, to vote for the guy agree with 50% of the time, to 25% of the time" or something.
 

Makai

Member
It is interesting that libertarians' second choices tend to bounce around between parties. Ron Paul got me interested in politics in 2007-2008 and my second choice then was Obama. You'd expect McCain would be a better fit but, but he really wasn't. Committed to 100 years in Iraq, his running mate was crazy, etc.
 
Well, to begin with, Bernie has not always been in favor of same sex marriage. He voted against DOMA because he said marriage was a state's issue. In 2006, he was for civil unions and agreed with Vermont's law creating them. When he was major, he said that gay rights weren't a priority for him, and that he probably wouldn't support a bill protecting gays from discrimination. He evolved on the issue just like everyone else. If you're a member of a minority group, I think you often support people based on their current positions. If I was pissed at everyone who, at some point, didn't support gay marriage, I'd be a bitter old queen. Well, more of a bitter queen than I am now. A Time's Article about it posted today.

Fair point. I guess the only thing I'd say is Hillary's earlier stance was probably influenced by her religious beliefs, when our constitution is supposed to keep our government strictly secular... Of course, in practice, that's not quite how things work, especially on the Republican side (small government, my ass)... Thankfully, I really think, among Democrats, there is no issue here and Bernie's faith appears to be an entirely personal affair, as it should be.

As far as campaign finances, while I certainly do not like Citizens United, I'm not a single issue voter. Hillary has said a litmus test for her nominee for Supreme Court would be if they would want to overturn it. She's been consistent on this, and I believe her.

Agreed.

This call, that Americans will just magically wake up, throw away decades of beliefs, and embrace the great liberal savior Bernie Sanders is just, in my opinion, the epitome of wishful thinking. He can't even get a majority within the liberal party of this country, but he's going to magically fix everything. These are the same things that have been promised by far left candidates before. They never, ever achieve them.

I went to a local Bernie volunteering event yesterday, and one quite enthusiastic lady (60ish) supporter, wearing her smart Bernie 2016 tee, commented that Bernie's was the first campaign, in some years, that had gotten her interested in polltics again, and isn't this new found enthusiasm also reflected in the record smashing crowds Bernie has been getting? I also note that Bernie appears to have absolutely no trouble attracting female supporters, of all ages.

As to what Bernie could actually achieve, in his first term; in his first two years, he could carefully lay out the groundwork for puting his proposals into action, in anticipation of comprehensively retaking the House, in combination with a huge mid-term votes drive.

For those that scoff at the idea that you could get unheard of numbers of voters out for the mid-terms, and point to Obama's failure in this area, you're missing a huge component of this; with Obama and his super majority, we didn't see the results we were "hoping for", where as now, we know Bernie's is a two part plan, and so we know we must also come through in the mid-terms, for his hands to be untied. Also, I'm sure it will be made abundantly clear to incoming Representatives, that they must largely agree with Bernie's proposals and would therefore vote accordingly.

I do believe, very firmly, that Sanders could lose to some of the GOP wack jobs, yes. This is the country that voted for Shrub twice. Sanders' campaign has showed that they are, at best, inept and at worse completely tone deaf and incompetent. I do not trust them to lead a General election campaign. The moment someone doesn't bow down and worship him, he gets entirely off message and seems to have no clue how to proceed.

If Bernie makes it to the General, the grassroots support he will attract will be truly phenomenal and will be of an entirely different character to a GOP candidates. Ultimately, I just don't think Trump / Carson supporters will have anywhere near the enthusiasm of Bernie supporters; "Yay, more income inequality - that's something I can really get behind!".

Now, the Kocks could pump in close to a billion dollars, but in this day and age, how effective are TV adds, when people are cutting the cord and aren't bothering to watch news programs. Sure, Fox News viewers will lap them up, where the average age is approaching 70, but they are mostly beyond persuasion anyway, although, I'm sure I've seen a couple posts on GAF where they've said they know someone who wouldn't vote for Hillary but they would vote for Bernie.

As I mentioned, I think the American people would come through handsomely, to provide the essential funds he would need to fund a general election campaign. Also, he could use a SuperPAC, as long as the donors publicly state they expect absolutely nothing in return and the donors are not clearly out of line with Bernie's proposals, so a donation from the NRA would obviously not fly. All Bernie would need to do is clearly and widely explain his shift in tactics. How easy is that, talking to the american people, which Bernie can do with consumate ease?

With regards to how well his campaign is being managed, we will just have to disagree on this, because, taken as a whole, I just don't recognise your characterisation. You might perhaps include his handling of BLM, but that is ancient history. Just on his supposed lack of support from the African American community, he might struggle to get his message across, but if he does, everything in his campaign is a positive for that community.

Why I support Clinton over Bernie boils down to a few things:

1) Sanders is entirely wrong on guns. While I'm not a single issue voter, his positions are not acceptable to me.

Sorry, I don't follow; his and Hillary's positions on gun legislation are currently in large agreement.

2) I do not trust Sanders when it comes to anything other than his economic populism. I do not trust him on foreign policy. I fundamentally disagree that every single one of life's ills results from income inequality. It's part of the problem, but it's far deeper than that.

What specifically don't you trust about his foreign policy? Only using force as a very last resort and seeking international cooperation, for such force, seems eminently reasonable. Also, it is long overdue that reasonable, and yet firm pressure is brought to bare on Israel, to agree to an amicable solution for Israel and a Palestinian state. Sure, no one can wave a magic wand here, but this conflict has gone for long enough and the region finally, deserves some peace.

On income inequality, it just so happens that if you redress the chronic inbalance in the tax system, primary by taxing Capital Gains at the same progressive rates as for work and getting corporations to pay their fare share, this will yield the trillions needed to tackle our failing infrastructure and provide millions a good paying jobs, among other benefits. Would this dampen economic activity? Hasn't it has been shown that it would not.

3) I do not believe in protectionism.

If reverse protectionisn is what's highlighted in Michael Moore's movie, The Big One, where profitable factories are closed down in America, with the loss of many thousands of good paying American jobs, just so corporations can maximise profits for shareholders, well I and the Middle Class in America thinks that blows, along with the trade policies that facilitated the change.

4) I also don't agree with him on the way in which he wants to enact certain policies. They are based on the idea that you need not compromise with anyone, and that you can create a system (be it educational or health care) from scratch, ignoring what we have in place here already.

On health, the thing is, how is anything other than radical change going to fix our hugely expensive and disfunctional health care sector. This should indeed be handled with care, perhaps by initially just expanding the public option, which could act as some true competition for the private sector, driving costs down.

On education, he's not starting anything from scratch, just merely changing the way public college education is funded (sorry, Donald, no free education for your future offspring).

5) On a personal level, I like Hillary Clinton better than I like Bernie Sanders. I'll be honest, the longer this campaign goes, the less I like him. I still think he's a good person. He's principled. He and I agree on a lot of the issues, but I can't say I personally care for him.

Given that Bernie is a very polite, good natured person, is it primarily just that you really don't like his "for the people" policies and this colors your feelings towards him? Man, I grew to hate Conservatives in the UK (pre-Blair era) and I see pro-fracking Cameron is carrying on the tradition...

6) Hillary Clinton is actually a Democrat. Sanders has never stumped for a candidate outside of his state. He is not a member of the party. He owes the party nothing. He's never had a leadership position within it, yet now he wants to be the standard bearer? No. That's not how this works. You don't get to be an Independent when it suits you, then decide you want to be a Democrat when you decide you want to do something else.

Couldn't you have said much the same about Obama in 08?
 

benjipwns

Banned
It is interesting that libertarians' second choices tend to bounce around between parties. Ron Paul got me interested in politics in 2007-2008 and my second choice then was Obama. You'd expect McCain would be a better fit but, but he really wasn't. Committed to 100 years in Iraq, his running mate was crazy, etc.
I posted this a few weeks ago, but it was the iSideWith results I last got while I was bored one day:
w2goa2m.png
COpufyf.png


They've definitely changed the algorithm this year to match more results, even if the overall figure is incorrect due to miss-matching answers. They used to throw out answers that matched no candidates, which is how in 2012 I could get things like Johnson 98%, Paul 95%, Mitt Romney 40%, Jill Stein 38%, Obama 22%. Now they "match closest" or "match similar to others as you" and stuff.
 
I can't believe Grimes is going to get reelected. That's wild.

She is running against someone with less name recognition and history than McConnell, and more people will turn out this election than did 2014. Prior to the actual election remember she was polling quite well, even given her horrible strategy of "who's Obama? I didn't vote for that guy".
 

pigeon

Banned
Daniel B·;183315176 said:
If reverse protectionisn is what's highlighted in Michael Moore's movie, The Big One, where profitable factories are closed down in America, with the loss of many thousands of good paying American jobs, just so corporations can maximise profits for shareholders, well I and the Middle Class in America thinks that blows, along with the trade policies that facilitated the change.

Frankly, this seems like an anti-socialist position. Protectionism reduces global wealth in favor of, as you say, "American jobs." But in the long term we don't need more American jobs -- we need to stop tying people's survival to their ability to get a job. That's going to depend heavily on the level of global wealth. Focusing on protecting local jobs directly fights the development of affluence we need to start challenging the lash of hunger.

Daniel B·;183315176 said:
On health, the thing is, how is anything other than radical change going to fix our hugely expensive and disfunctional health care sector.

I mean, Obamacare made a huge impact on insurance rates, and health care costs have been rising at a slower rate. It seems like our health care sector has already gotten a lot better purely through incremental improvements.

Daniel B·;183315176 said:
Couldn't you have said much the same about Obama in 08?

No? Obama gave the keynote speech at the 2004 DNC. At the time that Obama was nominated, he'd been running for political office as a Democrat for ten years.
 

ivysaur12

Banned
Using the hypothetical that I would vote:
Hopefully Gary Johnson is the Libertarian candidate again. If not, probably Libertarian as long as it's not someone like Bob Barr again or a nutjob from the depths of the party, Badnarik was close. If so probably will vote "U.S. Taxpayer" which is the ballot line for the Constitution Party as they are the lowest in vote totals usually.

If I have to pick from one of the primary candidates in the big party:
Rand Paul, in the R primary, obviously. If Rand has dropped out, I would vote for Sanders in the D primary. If neither were still in it and I had to pick I would vote in the R primary, probably for Ted Cruz. But at that point we're from "vote from the guy you agree with 80% of the time, to vote for the guy agree with 50% of the time, to 25% of the time" or something.

Interesting re: Sanders and Cruz. Any particular reason why? Sanders seems like he'd have the opposite political philosophy on the role of government than yours.
 
Also lol at that 'twitter tease' referencing these Kasich soundbites as "campaign ending" (I assume that was it). He said this stuff already and it's not even that harsh, he's afraid to actually name anyone he's talking about for one even though it's obvious.
 

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
I feel like they stuffed the hall with rubio fans. Yikes they like him. But he pretends he's not in the establishment, lol.
 
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