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PoliGAF 2015 |OT2| Pls print

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P

Poodlestrike

Banned
RustyNails said:
donald%20trump%20jeb%20tweet.jpg
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What's going on with the nazis?
 
L

Lucky Forward

Member
The skeletons in Rubio's closet that were so concerning to Romney in 2012 may be lingering issues from his use and abuse of a Republican party credit card while in the Florida state house.

Marco Rubio spent lavishly on a GOP credit card, but some transactions are still secret

It has become legend in Florida political circles, a missing chapter in Marco Rubio's convoluted financial story: two years of credit card transactions from his time in the state House, when he and other Republican leaders freely spent party money.

Details about the spending, which included repairs for Rubio's family minivan, emerged in his 2010 U.S. Senate race. But voters got only half the story because the candidate refused to disclose additional records.
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As speaker of the Florida House, Rubio was one of about a half-dozen lawmakers given Republican Party of Florida credit cards. During the Senate race, the Times/Herald obtained Rubio's statements from 2006 and 2007, showing he routinely charged personal expenses, from a $10.50 movie ticket to a four-day, $10,000 family reunion.
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Rubio defended use of the card; the minivan, he said, was damaged by a valet at a political function and the party paid $1,000, half the insurance deductible. Items that were personal were paid directly to American Express, he said, though records show that did not happen on a monthly basis. After reporting by the Times/Herald, Rubio did pay the Republican Party of Florida $2,400 for plane flights he double-billed to state taxpayers and the party.

Charlie Crist, Rubio's opponent in 2010, tried to make the spending an issue, but Rubio rode a tea party wave to blow past the then Republican governor, the start of national attention that has propelled him into the presidential race. Through it all, Rubio has refused to provide credit card statements from 2005 and 2006.

"Those credit card statements are an internal party matter. I'm not going to release them," he told the editorial board of the Times-Union of Jacksonville in September 2010.

Attempts by reporters and Rubio's rivals to obtain them have fallen flat, leading to speculation about what they might contain.
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Chris Ingram, a Republican strategist from Tampa, said he asked Rubio during the Senate run if there were any issues that would arise and the candidate disclosed to him charging for "flooring" in his West Miami home. But as questions grew about Republican spending in general — the party chairman, Jim Greer, would serve time in prison — Rubio insisted he had done nothing improper.

"There is nothing to drop. I have the statements now. It is all mostly a bunch of commercial airlines, rental cars, hotels and travel restaurants. Any personal charges were paid by (me) directly," Rubio wrote Ingram in an email on Dec. 24, 2009. Ingram wrote back, "I hope you're right."

In his 2012 book, Rubio did not mention flooring. "I pulled the wrong card from my wallet to pay for pavers." He attributed the family reunion expense in Thomasville, Ga. — a celebration of him becoming House speaker — to a mistake by his travel agent, who used the wrong card.

"There are always these things with Marco, like, 'Oh, let me just explain that,' " Ingram said in interview this week. "You want to look at the guy and say, 'You're not a lawyer defending a client in a criminal trial trying to get them off by saying whatever needs to be said.' He explains things away enough to convolute the issue and then people don't even know what the question was."

A Florida man filed an ethics complaint against Rubio in 2010, and in 2012 the state ethics commission cleared him, though an investigator said the level of "negligence" exhibited by Rubio's confusion between the GOP American Express and his own MasterCard, and failing to recognize the error on monthly statements, was "disturbing."
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I

ItWasMeantToBe19

Banned
Salt Lake City elected a lesbian mayor with good ideas :)

Ralph Becker did some good things, but he was pretty shitty to my nonprofit recently so I'm glad about him losing.
 
T

thepotatoman

Unconfirmed Member
Diablos said:
There is no way Carson beats Hillary in the GE. Quinnipiac you so cray
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If 19% of black people vote for him like that poll says, he'll certainly win the general.

Still seems hard to imagine though.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
Don't see how last night was bad news for Democrats, it felt like more of a mixed bag. Yes losing the governor's seat in Kentucky sucked, but we held our ground in Mississippi and Virginia and gained quite a bit in Pennsylvania and New Jersey. And Kentucky wasn't a total wipeout either, we won the next two major statewide races and came close in the third.

If we flip Louisiana in two and a half weeks will the conventional wisdom change accordingly? I'm guessing not.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
The court flipping in PA is particularly important because they're the tiebreaking vote for redistricting. Democrats could swing like six seats in one election.

Now just get independent commissions in Ohio, Michigan and Floeda and we're pretty much set.
 
U

User1608

Banned
HylianTom said:
Thanks! I'll be out on the streets with the dog reminding folks to vote early this weekend!
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Great to see, Tom! Rooting for you especially!:)
Aaron Strife said:
Don't see how last night was bad news for Democrats, it felt like more of a mixed bag. Yes losing the governor's seat in Kentucky sucked, but we held our ground in Mississippi and Virginia and gained quite a bit in Pennsylvania and New Jersey. And Kentucky wasn't a total wipeout either, we won the next two major statewide races and came close in the third.

If we flip Louisiana in two and a half weeks will the conventional wisdom change accordingly? I'm guessing not.
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That was my impression. Some crushing disappointment too.:/ and my brothers didn't even bother to vote, to top off the sad. lol Democrats.:( :p.
 
U

User 406

Banned
Aaron Strife said:
Don't see how last night was bad news for Democrats, it felt like more of a mixed bag. Yes losing the governor's seat in Kentucky sucked, but we held our ground in Mississippi and Virginia and gained quite a bit in Pennsylvania and New Jersey. And Kentucky wasn't a total wipeout either, we won the next two major statewide races and came close in the third.

If we flip Louisiana in two and a half weeks will the conventional wisdom change accordingly? I'm guessing not.
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We also passed Issue 1 in Ohio, which will greatly improve our chances of passing congressional redistricting reform.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
Sea Manky said:
We also passed Issue 1 in Ohio, which will greatly improve our chances of passing congressional redistricting reform.
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Hopefully. An amendment that extended it to congressional redistricting and balance the commission a bit more would be good. Right now the Republicans would have a 5-2 majority on that. They could still pass a gerrymander but it'd be more mild.
 
P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Trump about Carson:

Donald Trump said:
"He will not be able to deal with China. He will not be able to deal with Iran. He will not be able to deal with any of the countries that are really abusing our country,” Trump said. “Because that’s not his thing. And, frankly, when you talk about energy, he’s got lower energy than Jeb Bush. If Ben gets in … I don’t know where Ben comes from, but if Ben got in, you would say, ‘Oh my God, we have ourselves a problem.
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R

Retromelon

Member
Bobby Jindal on Proposed TheBlaze Debate: ‘I’d be Thrilled to Do It’
http://www.theblaze.com/stories/2015/11/03/bobby-jindal-on-proposed-theblaze-debate-id-be-thrilled-to-do-it/
Republican presidential candidate Gov. Bobby Jindal (R-La.) told Dana Loesch Tuesday on TheBlaze TV’s “Dana” he would be “thrilled” to participate in Glenn Beck’s proposed debate on TheBlaze TV network.

“Why in the world as Republicans are we trying to seek the approval of liberal, mainstream, outdated media outlets that don’t like us instead of the newer media, the conservative media?” Jindal asked. “I think candidates should be willing to debate anywhere, any time, any place.”
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The Louisiana governor went on to say the GOP candidates need “intelligent” and “probing” questions and that he has “no doubt” that a debate at TheBlaze would focus on substantial issues.

“We only have three hours and they waste all this time on silly things, trying to attack folks” Jindal said of the debates to date. “I’m happy to take anybody’s questions — liberal, Republican, Democrat, Independent, conservative — it doesn’t bother me.”
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Bob yet again with the salient points. Btw that new quinnipiac poll has carson beating scandillary with female voters 45 to 44%. lel
 
B

BertramCooper

Banned
Aaron Strife said:
Hopefully. An amendment that extended it to congressional redistricting and balance the commission a bit more would be good. Right now the Republicans would have a 5-2 majority on that. They could still pass a gerrymander but it'd be more mild.
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On paper, the makeup of the commission will favor the party in power, but if the maps don't get the support of the minority party, they're only good for four years.

Nobody, and I mean nobody, is going to want to redraw maps every four years. So while the numbers on paper overwhelmingly favor the majority party, the minority party has an extremely powerful trump card that will almost certainly prevent truly heinous forms of gerrymandering.
 
G

gcubed

Member
I'm really curious the shock of non presidential year democrat turnout. When you build your coalition on groups that don't turn out in off years you can't expect to win anything even remotely contested in those years.

I have no idea how to fix it, but if you are a democrat in a contested area up for election in an off year... Welp, sucks for you.
 
M

Makai

Member
gcubed said:
I'm really curious the shock of non presidential year democrat turnout. When you build your coalition on groups that don't turn out in off years you can't expect to win anything even remotely contested in those years.

I have no idea how to fix it, but if you are a democrat in a contested area up for election in an off year... Welp, sucks for you.
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Move more elections to the same year.
 
R

RustyNails

Member
Is the FBN debate still on track for next week? Yayaya. If so may I suggest batman theme:

Jeb - Batman
Rubio - Robin
Trump - Joker
Carson - Two Face
Christie - Penguin
Jindal - Riddler
 
N

NeoXChaos

Member
gcubed said:
I'm really curious the shock of non presidential year democrat turnout. When you build your coalition on groups that don't turn out in off years you can't expect to win anything even remotely contested in those years.

I have no idea how to fix it, but if you are a democrat in a contested area up for election in an off year... Welp, sucks for you.
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Midterm turnout has been terrible for decades. Its just that the Democrats never relied so heavily on the Obama Coalition till now. It is structural too. Democrats were out of the WH for all but 4 years between 69-93 so they benefited from the public taking their frustrations out on Nixon-Ford, Reagan and Bush. They also had a different coalition during that time. Of course it was crumbling due to 64' but you still had a strong statewide Democratic presence in the South and plains until the 80-90's. Demcorats aint just dead in the south. They are dead in the plains/rural small states too.
 
B

Black Mamba

Member
Welp, Kentucky did something really stupid.


On another note, I have an opinion. Polling for low-turnout elections is bad and often unreliable. Like in Kentucky. And is during midterms. And the rest.

This also means that unless the lead is large (like Hillary up 30 on Bernie), we can't rely on even aggregate polling for the primaries unless turnout ends up being high.

Another thing to look at is the 2nd choice of the low polling candidates. When it comes time to vote, almost no one is actually going to vote Christie, Jindal, etc and their votes have to go somewhere. They'll say they're voting one way to a poll but once in the booth they won't waste their vote. For the most part, the top 3 will get 90% of the votes IMO.
 
G

gcubed

Member
NeoXChaos said:
Midterm turnout has been terrible for decades. Its just that the Democrats never relied so heavily on the Obama Coalition till now. It is structural too. Democrats were out of the WH for all but 4 years between 69-93 so they benefited from the public taking their frustrations out on Nixon, Reagan and Bush. They also had a different coalition during that time. Of course it was crumbling due to 64' but you still had a strong statewide Democratic presence in the South and plains until the 80-90's. Demcorats aint just dead in the south. They are dead in the plains/rural small states too.
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Yeah, it is structural, agreed. They transitioned their coalition to a an expanding group that works well when the spotlight is on, but fails completely when it goes away. By transitioning to that coalition they lost more and more of the voters that actually... vote all the time. I'm sure cyclically eventually it will work out for them in areas where it matters, but the party as a whole is run like shit, and continues to run like shit because "hey, we won the presidency" seems to be the only bar to success for a shit leader like Dirty Deb

Honestly, if the GOP ever put a semi-moderate that didn't have to turn to vapid asshole to win a nomination, the Democrats would be wiped off the map overnight.
 
GutsOfThor

GutsOfThor

Member
My mother told me about a poll she saw this morning that had Carson beating Hilary if the election were held today. What poll was she talking about?
 
T

Teggy

Member
GutsOfThor said:
My mother told me about a poll she saw this morning that had Carson beating Hilary if the election were held today. What poll was she talking about?
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Sadly this has been the result of like the last 5 polls (see realclearpolitics.com) and has had me freaking out for weeks.

For reference: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...al_election_carson_vs_clinton-5119.html#polls

Around August things just went haywire. The NBC vs. Quinnipiac polls that were just released are a pretty stark contrast, maybe someone can chime in on the cross tabs.
 
M

Makai

Member
RustyNails said:
I yield. I guess Kasich makes a better Two Face: put up a nice moderate view but actually a slightly crazy Republican (going by what Ohio gaffers say)
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I'm making my own list, one sec. I like your establishment Batman/Robin theme, so I'd make him Batgirl.
 
P

pigeon

Banned
RustyNails said:
Is the FBN debate still on track for next week? Yayaya. If so may I suggest batman theme:

Jeb - Batman
Rubio - Robin
Trump - Joker
Carson - Two Face
Christie - Penguin
Jindal - Riddler
Click to expand...

I think they should probably all be villains, right?

Jeb - Mr. Freeze
Rubio - Red Hood (or Bane, for the disadvantaged family connection)
 
R

RustyNails

Member
Makai said:
I'm making my own list, one sec. I like your establishment Batman/Robin theme, so I'd make him Batgirl.
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Jeb - "we'll hunt him, because he can take it"
Trump - "In their desperation, they turned to a man they didn't fully understand"
Christie - "I was their number one son, and they treated me like number two."

It works on so many levels.
 
P

pigeon

Banned
Teggy said:
In that Quinnipiac poll Carson is beating Hillary among white women 53-38. This can't be real, right?
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Hillary hasn't started campaigning (which will help her) and Carson hasn't started campaigning either (which will hurt him).

10% undecided is also suggestive. Again, when Obama led Romney by double digits before the first debate, most of that lead was because of a high number of undecided voters, and after the first debate they went right back to supporting Romney. When one candidate does poorly in a poll along with a much higher number of undecided voters, it suggests that a lot of those undecided voters are supporters that are temporarily claiming to be undecided for various reasons, and a good media beat will lead to them flocking back.
 
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