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PoliGAF 2015 |OT2| Pls print

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B-Dubs

No Scrubs
He knows how to play this game a lot better than I expected he would. Carson is much closer to the destructive 2012 candidates while Trump is much more like Romney.

Weird.

Trump's entire existence revolves around being able to play the media, he doesn't get past real estate developer without it.

Been saying he's the Romney for a while now, I'm serious when I say the rest of the GOP are fools if they think they can sleep on Trump.
 

benjipwns

Banned
Trump being Romney isn't as good for him as it was for Romney in 2012. He can't capture a majority of delegates at under 35%. Especially against three campaigns of 15+%.
 

Makai

Member
Trump's entire existence revolves around being able to play the media, he doesn't get past real estate developer without it.

Been saying he's the Romney for a while now, I'm serious when I say the rest of the GOP are fools if they think they can sleep on Trump.
But he avoids he "not-Romney" problem by fusing Romney with Gingrich.
 
Trump being Romney isn't as good for him as it was for Romney in 2012. He can't capture a majority of delegates at under 35%. Especially against three campaigns of 15+%.

Unfortunately for the rest of the field a large chunk of Carson's vote goes Trump if Carson drops out, putting trumps support well into the mid 40% range.

Trump absolutely CAN win the nomination with that kind of support. The establishment needs Carson in or this is over.
 

benjipwns

Banned
Just to remind everyone, the GOP is going near full PR this year through March 1st. Except for NH and a couple others, that means you get 5%, you get 5% of delegates.

It's not like the Democrats with a 15% cut-off. It's not like the GOP in the past where everything was winner take all.

I don't want to do the math again, but somewhere in the thread I did a scenario where Trump wins Iowa, NH, SC and Florida all with 35% of the vote and he comes out with something like...56 delegates out of ~1100 needed.

Under the old system, Trumney would have had 300+.

This is one reason why people aren't dropping out. They'll have delegates that others are going to want later.
 
I'm going to laugh my ass off if Trump gets the nomination, then quits because he's bored, lmao. I can totally see this happening with this farce of an election.
 
All we need now is a Brewster's Millions scenario to play out.

still-from-brewsters-millions-1985.jpg
 

HUELEN10

Member
Okay, I need all Carson supporters to sign an affidavit that they are not being sarcastic. I don't trust anyone after thinking I finally found one with Huelen.
Okay, here it is.

Though not definitive, there is an actual chance I will be voting for Ben Carson during the primaries, should I decide to register as republican during the primaries and vote for the primary. If the general election ends up being a Clinton/Carson, I am most likely voting for Carson, pending on VP picks for both candidates.

Don't know why you care so much about how others are gonna vote, but there you go if it makes you feel any better.
 

Makai

Member
Okay, here it is.

Though not definitive, there is an actual chance I will be voting for Ben Carson during the primaries, should I decide to register as republican during the primaries and vote for the primary. If the general election ends up being a Clinton/Carson, I am most likely voting for Carson, pending on VP picks for both candidates.

Don't know why you care so much about how others are gonna vote, but there you go if it makes you feel any better.
I understand the appeal of every candidate in the race, with one exception. Ben defies all understanding and I want some answers! I'm not trying to find out who people are voting for per se. Rather, I'm trying to find a true believer Carson supporter so they can explain what they see in him.
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
Unfortunately for the rest of the field a large chunk of Carson's vote goes Trump if Carson drops out, putting trumps support well into the mid 40% range.

Trump absolutely CAN win the nomination with that kind of support. The establishment needs Carson in or this is over.

The establishment might be counting on Trump being vulnerable in a 1-on-1 situation with Rubio.
 

Cerium

Member
Also as noted above, Trump has no skeletons. He's been an open book for two decades.
That's not really having no skeletons, that's just mounting the skeletons on the ramparts of his tower for everyone to gawk at rather than hiding them in the closet.
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
Rubio would be really vulnerable on immigration there, especially if Cruz and Trump are there hammering him on it.

Yea but the establishment hasn't exactly been making smart movies lately. They may be counting on a 1-on-1 giving people pause and Rubio looking better in comparison to Trump.

If and when Rubio collapses, what happens next? Flock to Kasich? Back to Jeb? Faustian bargain with Trump or Cruz?

Then Trump is the captain.
 

Makai

Member
What can they do? Beg Romney to run again? By the time Trump clears the field he'll have already won.
He really should. After this debate, just step up and say, "Jeb, Rubio - I gave you your shot and you blew it. I'm running for president."
 

benjipwns

Banned
You guys keep talking about the "establishment" as if they're still the establishment and not a just another split wing of the party.

If we're spotting the "establishment" Rubio, Jeb?, Kasich (despite coming to office on the back of the Tea Party), Christie and Graham. At minimum, three candidates with three different "establishment" bases. Plus Graham and his base of Johm McCain.

Then "Establishment" = 22.5%
Huckabee-Santorum-Jindal = 4%
Carson-Trump-Cruz-Fiorina-Paul = 66%

The Anti-Establishment/Tea Party/Anti-Washington wing isn't unified either. They're unified against the "establishment" and the media. That doesn't have to break down as long as the stakes aren't raising. But they will be.

I don't think the bulk of Carson's support moves to Trump, especially if Trump gets too eager on helping eliminate him. The way he took out Carly was much smarter.

Carson effectively became the not-Trump as everyone but Cruz and Rubio were imploding. And Walker most spectacularly of all.

I think the "surprise" fallout winner of a Carson implosion could be Christie. He'll beat up on Huckabee and Santorum and look good again for a bit. Fiorina is secretly done, she only ever "got in" the race because she picked up on the Jeb/Walker/Perry collapse with the JV debate and Planned Parenthood thing.

There's your bailout option. The only candidate other than Trump and Carson to poll at 20% nationally since July 2013.
 

Cerium

Member
I love that everyone signed that stupid loyalty oath they designed to trap Trump, and may end up being bound to him because of it.
 
Forgot to clarify - what do the establishment do. I doubt they just give up.

I think at this point, whatever the establishment does will receiving a massive backlash in favor of the anti-establishment.

The establishment can't rig the primary via multipling the super delegates by 5x. That'll just create a few many third party runs.
 

benjipwns

Banned
Remember, the point of the "third man" isn't to beat Trump, it's to limit him. So you ram him with someone like Christie to stop him from topping 30%.

Trump 25% - Rubio - 20% - Cruz 15% - Christie - 10% - Paul - 5% - Jeb? - 5% works out in your favor if you can get the Cruz/Paul camp against Trump. You don't need all of it. Just half.

The establishment can't rig the primary via multipling the super delegates by 5x. That'll just create a few many third party runs.
I don't believe the GOP has this. And third party runs after being in the primary gets you kicked off ballots.
 

benjipwns

Banned
I understand the appeal of every candidate in the race, with one exception. Ben defies all understanding and I want some answers! I'm not trying to find out who people are voting for per se. Rather, I'm trying to find a true believer Carson supporter so they can explain what they see in him.

After ten minutes searching for a columnist actually writing a piece like this. I found one on NRO.

Rich Lowry in September:
Ben Carson is a superior outsider to Donald Trump.

He is more gentlemanly and more conservative, with a more compelling life story. He is a man of faith who, despite his manifest accomplishments, has a quiet dignity and winsome modesty about him. Ben Carson is a throwback, whereas Donald Trump is a boldfaced name straight out of our swinish celebrity culture.

What they have in common is that they are political neophytes who are memorable communicators precisely because they speak and carry themselves so differently from other candidates. Although the similarities stop there — Carson is what Trump calls “low energy.” And yet Carson makes it work.

Few politicians have ever wielded soft-spokenness to such rhetorical effect. Carson aced the Fox debate when in his closing statement he didn’t puff himself up and attempt to soar like candidates always do but gently said a few nice things about his background as a surgeon, with a touch of humor. It was a hit.

If you like your outsider not to favor higher taxes, not to have once opposed the ban of partial-birth abortion, not to speak favorably of socialized medicine, and not to have been an erstwhile booster of Nancy Pelosi and Hillary Clinton, Ben Carson (or Carly Fiorina) is a much better bet than Donald Trump.

And Carson is altogether a more sympathetic figure. He rose from nothing; Trump took over the family real-estate business. Carson’s mom was one of 24 kids, had a third-grade education, and worked as a domestic; Trump’s father amassed a fortune of about $300 million.

Carson is a serious Christian who has a powerful testimonial about getting down on his knees as a young man unable to control his temper and saying, “Lord, unless you help me, I’m not going to make it.” Carson has certainly made the most of his own renown…but he operates from a baseline of self-respect and respect for others.

Trump says he likes The Art of the Deal better than any book except the Bible, but he appears to have read just one of them. Trump is the most blatantly secular major presidential candidate since Howard Dean, and he will have to do well in the Iowa caucuses that have been won most recently by Rick Santorum, Mike Huckabee and George W. Bush — all men who were earnest about their faith.

Trump is, to say the least, of a different mold. He is a successful creature of our culture of conspicuous display and tasteless braggadocio. It’s no accident that he played himself in WWE wrestling dramas, or that he names everything after himself, or that he doesn’t have enough superlatives for own personal qualities and wealth and accomplishments.

Carson has certainly made the most of his own renown, churning out best-sellers and raking in the speaking fees, but he operates from a baseline of self-respect and respect for others.

It’s impossible to imagine him engaging in juvenile insult wars with random targets of his ire. Or imagine him calling a female journalist a “bimbo” for asking unwelcome questions, or commenting crudely on women’s appearances.

America long ago turned its back on self-restraint and gentlemanliness. Conservatives were the last holdouts, but their dalliance with Trump makes you wonder if they, too, are willing to surrender to celebrity excess as the new norm.

Ben Carson stands for something different. His personal story shows how true class isn’t about riches, but about character. Donald Trump has all the finest things and, I’d hazard to guess, barely as much class as Ben Carson’s penniless mother struggling to raise her sons had in her pinky.

If conservatives want to flirt with or support an unconventional candidate, Carson provides the opportunity to do it without a guilty conscience.
So...he's a Christian, a conservative and not as annoying as Trump?
 

Makai

Member
I like the Christie theory, but it's hard to imagine where his support would come from. Definitely not from Carson supporters. He's basically Trump-lite.
 
I'm not sure where Christie's traction would come from given the schedule, the early states don't favor him at all outside of NH, but even there he isn't doing well. Carson imploding doesn't directly benefit him, he's pretty much the exact opposite in terms of a candidate. People that love the soft spoken evangelical aren't jumping ship to Chris Christie. I don't really see any reason to believe he has a chance of resurgence.
 

Makai

Member
Remember, the point of the "third man" isn't to beat Trump, it's to limit him. So you ram him with someone like Christie to stop him from topping 30%.

Trump 25% - Rubio - 20% - Cruz 15% - Christie - 10% - Paul - 5% - Jeb? - 5% works out in your favor if you can get the Cruz/Paul camp against Trump. You don't need all of it. Just half.


I don't believe the GOP has this. And third party runs after being in the primary gets you kicked off ballots.
Hold it! You're giving the establishment 40% of the vote here. Pretty generous considering your previous post. I'd guess it shakes out more like:

Trump - 40% - Cruz - 35% - Rubio - 25%

Trump takes most of the Huck and Santorum supporters. Trump gets a third of the Carson supports and Cruz gets the rest.
 

benjipwns

Banned
I gave "them" 35%. Paul's support is part-Cruz/part-hisowncrazy. Jeb's not dropping more, Rubio can go higher than he's at, he has in the past. And the "fourth man" (doesn't have to be Christie, potentially Kasich) is going to figure to be around 10%.

A Christie boomlet comes from the same way he even became a Presidential contender in the first place five years ago. Being himself and thus a jerk to people conservatives don't like to their faces. Trump sucks that air out of the room, Christie's going to have it to himself for a debate as Fiorina effectively drops out joining Huckabee/Santorum/Pataki as margins of error and we're presuming Carson implodes. Those will all still suck up 5+% of the delegates, but they'll mostly be turning them over to the winner, not deciding things.

Trump's not hitting 40%, I doubt he even gets to 35%, before April. Under 35% through April is all a not-Trump coalition needs to eliminate him.

Cruz may be a stick in the eye, but his money is still coming from standard GOP circles. Especially his SuperPAC money. Trump is independent. Ideology won't decide that contest.
 

benjipwns

Banned
Polling/delegates/vote share, it'll all be the same thing. I don't see why we shouldn't consider Trump to have peaked at 30% for the time being. This doesn't mean Trump will drop to 15% or something, only that Trump won't rise significantly past the 25-30% from here on.

The same way I would say that Romney "peaked" in July 2011. He never really fell much below 25% but he never got above it until the voting started.

Rubio "peaked" at 14%, him surpassing that in the next three months seems more likely to me than Trump surpassing 30%.

We have had the same pattern we had before Trump entered, only Trump chopped everyone's numbers in half. I haven't seen anything to suggest that doesn't continue AND that unlike 2012 people can't come back before Iowa.

Perry bombed his introduction hard, Cain dropped out. Huntsman and Paul were non-starters. Gingrich was running on fumes from day one and Santorum was at 4% and they still gave Romney a fight through three months.

Rubio's come back twice, Cruz has risen and fallen four times, Carson even got slashed in half and now he's at 20+%, he and Trump both fell to Carly before bouncing back, even Jeb! had a comeback and a half. The only candidates who have pretty much consistently fallen from their last peak (almost all of them back in February) is Huckabee and Paul. (If Christie gets nothing out of the JV debate, then he makes three.)

Every single one of these candidates except Pataki and Graham seem to have a better opportunity to get in the mix for a brief period again over the next three months than the entire field had to take on Romney with a day before Iowa in 2012.

And then after these three months we actually start voting for delegates.
 

Iolo

Member
After ten minutes searching for a columnist actually writing a piece like this. I found one on NRO.

Rich Lowry in September:

So...he's a Christian, a conservative and not as annoying as Trump?

This is the same Rich Lowry who once wrote about Sarah Palin thusly:

I'm sure I'm not the only male in America who, when Palin dropped her first wink, sat up a little straighter on the couch and said, "Hey, I think she just winked at me." And her smile. By the end, when she clearly knew she was doing well, it was so sparkling it was almost mesmerizing. It sent little starbursts through the screen and ricocheting around the living rooms of America. This is a quality that can't be learned; it's either something you have or you don't, and man, she's got it.

aaaargh droppin' fuckin winks
 
Trump too savage:

@BillKristol has become a sad case. His magazine is failing badly, probably doesn't have long to go, and his predictions are always wrong!

And here's Ted Cruz's dad!

Rafael Cruz: Common Core "is not that much different than what's happening in communist countries"

Rafael Cruz: Common Core is "socialistic" "brainwashing"; either homeschool your kids or "deprogram them"

Rafael Cruz: Gays will soon be "coming after your school"

Rafael Cruz: "Homosexuals have been living together forever...this is a direct attack on the family"

Rafael Cruz: Christians who believe in social justice don't really believe in God
 
watched that carson interview for the first time just now and someone commented something like, biggest trainwreck interview ever, first he admits to stabbing his mom and another kid, then farts uncontrollably on national tv

fukken dead
 

benjipwns

Banned
To make a point about Romney's status as an objective frontrunner and how we should be wary of predicting a Trump stampede to 40%. And the power of a "fourth man" bulldozing into the race. Just look at this clusterfuck:

Christmas Eve in Iowa:
Paul 24% - Romney 20% - Gingrich 17% - Perry 12% - Bachmann 8% - Santorum 7% - Huntsman 3%

December 28, 2011 Nationally:
Gingrich 28% - Romney 25% - Paul 12% - Perry 7% - Bachmann 6% - Santorum 4% - Huntsman 2%

December 28, 2011 in Iowa:
Paul 23% - Romney 23% - Gingrich 14% - Perry 12% - Santorum 10% - Bachmann 9% - Huntsman 3%

January 15, 2012 Nationally:
Romney 29% - Gingrich 16% - Santorum 14% - Paul 13% - Perry 7% - Huntsman 3%

January 28, 2012 Nationally:
Gingrich 31% - Romney 28% - Santorum 16% - Paul 13%

February 8, 2012 Nationally:
Romney 35% - Gingrich 22% - Santorum 18% - Paul 15%

February 18, 2012 Nationally:
Santorum 34% - Romney 28% - Gingrich 14% - Paul 12%

February 28, 2012 Nationally:
Santorum 33% - Romney 31% - Gingrich 14% - Paul 12%

March 7, 2012 Nationally:
Romney 38% - Santorum 26% - Gingrich 14% - Paul 12% (Romney's highest polling ever.)

March 14, 2012 Nationally:
Romney 34% - Santorum 29% - Gingrich 14% - Paul 11%

April 6, 2012 Nationally - Santorum suspends his campaign:
Romney 38% - Santorum 28% - Gingrich 14% - Paul 12%

April 11, 2012 Nationally - Romney hits 40%:
Romney 40% - Paul 13% - Gingrich 12%

April 24, 2012 Nationally - Romney hits 50%:
Romney 51% - Gingrich 18% - Paul 15%
 

ivysaur12

Banned
watched that carson interview for the first time just now and someone commented something like, biggest trainwreck interview ever, first he admits to stabbing his mom and another kid, then farts uncontrollably on national tv

fukken dead

maybe he was just taking his own medicine

Ben Carson denied ties to dietary supplement company Mannatech at last night’s GOP debate. “Total propaganda,” the candidate said. Carson’s denial is easily refuted. He has promoted the company in infomercials and at live events since 2004, and admitted that it helped fund his endowed chair at Johns Hopkins.

So why the denial? Mannatech was accused of deceptive sales practices and dubious health claims in the 2000s. The suburban Dallas-based company has used multi-level marketing to sell its products, including Ambrotose, its signature “glyconutrient” pill made of plant polysaccharides.

During a 20/20 investigation into Mannatech’s pills, a glycobiologist noted that the ingredient cocktail in the pills “doesn’t really do anything except increase flatulence.”
 

Makai

Member
Oh yeah. I meant 40% by the time it gets down to around three candidates. There's probably going to be even more volatility in the meantime because there's still so many candidates.
 

benjipwns

Banned
I thought about this briefly and I think our main disagreement is where we are in the cycle.

I'm looking at that volatility in 2012 from the weekend before Iowa to just two months later.

We're three months from Iowa. Five months from April. Cain's implosion was two months before Iowa. Perry peaked and cratered roughly four and three months before Iowa.

A Carson peak and crater would be at the Perry point of the cycle. In 2012 that meant there were still four more peaks and craters (Cain, Gingrich, Gingrich again, Santorum) to go before Romney finally was free. And that was with half as many candidates, twice as many debates, winner-take-all primaries, etc.

98% of Republicans didn't want Santorum at this point in the cycle in 2012. That means Jindal could be leading on March 8th with 35% of the vote...
 

Makai

Member
It's already a distinctly different race. 2012 had a single front runner oscillating between first and second place, and several flavors of the month that literally lasted a month each. This time we've just had Trump and Carson towering above everyone else. Trump's always been first. Carson's always been second. Everyone else is hot garbage, and maybe two of them have a shot of breaking away from the rest of the rejects if Carson dies. Trump's in a better position than Romney was, both in relative and nominal terms.


This makes me appreciate how much more polling we have now. Straight lines? wth?
 
Been thinking about shit way too much this evening. Really, the 2016 Dem primary reminds me so much of the 2000 Dem primary. I mean, it's so eerily similar. Hillary is as close to an incumbent as you can get without actually being an incumbent. She's being challenged by Bernie to her left. This is identical to the Gore/Bradley dynamic in 2000. Hell, Trump gets to play the role of McCain this time by sucking up airtime that Sanders/Bradley really needed to gain traction. Around this time, national polls put Gore at 58% and Bradley at 33%. He ended up with like 20% of the vote nation wide. I wonder where Sanders will end up, barring any change in in the dynamics of the race.

I mean, the difference is Bradley did have some Democratic party support, but other than that....
 

benjipwns

Banned
Carson hasn't always been second. He entered the race on May 4th, he didn't hit second until August 27th. Trump entered on June 16th and hit first place on July 20th. Carson was only at 6% on July 20th.

There were roughly three times as many debates in 2011 as there will be in 2015 lol

At this point there had already been eight debates.

In 2008 the Democrats had had fourteen debates and the Republicans had had twelve.

In 2004 there had only been seven debates by this point by the Democrats.

2000 was a dark time like now, there had only been one Democratic debate and two Republican debates. And W. Bush didn't attend either of the GOP debates.
 
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