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PoliGAF 2015 |OT2| Pls print

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T

thepotatoman

Unconfirmed Member
teiresias said:
No doubt this about funding the government, but how long is he actually delaying the crazies further hurting the party with a shutdown? It will be a CR that passes, not a budget. How long will the CR be? Until December? Then they're right back where they started.

Not to mention there will be a fiscal year roll over just before the presidential election anyway, with another chance to look like morons.
Click to expand...

What's holding him back from just passing a full spending bill? Surely there's enough republicans to join democrats to do it, knowing what's in store for the republican party if they don't.

Only thing stopping him might be worrying about getting the tea party riled up to vote against McCarthy, but I don't think that's a big worry.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
Second quarter GDP growth pushed up to 3.9%

WASHINGTON -The U.S. economy grew at an even faster clip in the spring than previously estimated. But that growth likely slowed in the summer, held back by global headwinds and turbulent financial markets.

The overall economy expanded at an annual rate of 3.9 percent in the April-June quarter, up from a previous estimate of 3.7 percent, the Commerce Department reported Friday. The new-found strength came from additional gains in consumer spending, business investment and residential construction.

The second-quarter expansion in gross domestic product, the economy's total output of goods and services, was a marked improvement from an anemic 0.6 percent increase in the first quarter when the economy was battered by a harsh winter.

Economists estimate that growth in the third quarter has slowed to around 2.5 percent.
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Nice guy Obama once again fulfilling opponents' campaign promises, this time Jeb Bush.

Boehner's resignation might trigger more retirements:

CPwfuw1WsAA0044.png


Sean Trende thinks this is disastrous for Republicans:

Welp, guess you have to put at least an outside chance of Ds taking the House now, up odds of D POTUS, senate considerably.
Click to expand...

I think conservatives have no clue how bad the Boehner resignation is for them.
Click to expand...

Given the mess likely to ensue, Rs *really* could use a governor nominee. Guess what? Their best bet just dropped out.
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Those retirements would probably lead to more open seat opportunities for Democrats. Even in a gerrymandered environment if seats like NJ-5 opened up they could make huge gains.

Steve Stivers calling on Boehner to "clear the deck" of legislation. This includes restoring the Export-Import bank, passing the highway funding bill and raising the debt ceiling. Probably all easy, noncontroversial bills that would pass with Democratic votes.
 
H

HylianTom

Banned
I agree with Trende. This is going to embolden Tea Partiers and up their expectations.

I actually wonder if Ted Cruz's stock went up a bit today.
 
N

NeoXChaos

Member
Sean Trende is sounding like Aaron "Optimistic" Strife.

Sean T at RCP ‏@SeanTrende 3h3 hours ago
@BrendanNyhan decent chance this is going to be like Lord of the Flies for Republicans. Boehner did decent job holding cons/crazies together
Click to expand...
 
W

Wilsongt

Member
Speaking of crazy GOP:

Florida.

http://www.mediaite.com/online/gop-...ymandering-more-prisoners-into-dems-district/

Politico obtained audio from the closed-door Republican caucus, where Janet Adkins reportedly checked the room for reporters before proposing a re-drawing of Corrinne Brown‘s district.

“You draw [Brown’s seat] in such a fashion so perhaps, a majority, or maybe not a majority, but a number of them will live in the prisons, thereby not being able to vote,” Adkins said. She went on to describe her idea as the “perfect storm” telling an attending committeeman that it would divert a large portion of the prison population away from his county, and that he would be able to beat Brown as a result.

Brown has filed a lawsuit in opposition to the plan, saying that Adkin’s plan would disenfranchise black voters, and that her comments prove her case. Adkins said in a statement released on Wednesday that she was elaborating on redistricting, and that she was sorry.

“I apologize if my statements offended anyone,” Adkins said. “Because congressional redistricting is a pending legal issue, I will not comment on this matter any further.”
Click to expand...
 
L

Lord_Byron28

Member
Aaron Strife said:
Second quarter GDP growth pushed up to 3.9%


Nice guy Obama once again fulfilling opponents' campaign promises, this time Jeb Bush.

Boehner's resignation might trigger more retirements:

CPwfuw1WsAA0044.png


Sean Trende thinks this is disastrous for Republicans:






Those retirements would probably lead to more open seat opportunities for Democrats. Even in a gerrymandered environment if seats like NJ-5 opened up they could make huge gains.

Steve Stivers calling on Boehner to "clear the deck" of legislation. This includes restoring the Export-Import bank, passing the highway funding bill and raising the debt ceiling. Probably all easy, noncontroversial bills that would pass with Democratic votes.
Click to expand...
Interesting. Slowly the republican establishment is losing control of the party to the tea party. First of all that's crazy to think what it means for the next 5-10 years under tea party rule. However I think overall the Republican party's influence in politics will go down. The tea party is a bunch of extremists supported that arent in line with the majority of what Americans want. There's a reason they can't find one viable candidate for president for the past few cycles. It's crazy to think how much better McCain and even Romney handled their campaign compared to the current offerings. I'm gonna go with Rubio becoming the nominee this time but I could see a Trump nomination as well.
NYCmetsfan said:
http://www.politico.com/story/2015/...hultz-marco-rubio-tasteless-fundraiser-213933

I hope this stupid attack doesn't show the Dems getting caught flat-footed with no good oppo research on Rubio.
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There is plenty of things that Democrats could attack Rubio on. I have no idea why they would pursue something as petty as this.
 
T

teiresias

Member
thepotatoman said:
What's holding him back from just passing a full spending bill? Surely there's enough republicans to join democrats to do it, knowing what's in store for the republican party if they don't.

Only thing stopping him might be worrying about getting the tea party riled up to vote against McCarthy, but I don't think that's a big worry.
Click to expand...

Only a CR has been introduced in the Senate (and passed? I can't rememeber if a non-PP CR has actually passed yet, I know a PP-lined CR was blocked). There has been no talk of a full budget passing. The main talk has been about a CR into mid-December - you know, long enough to make all Fed Employees curb spending for the holiday season.

One interesting thing someone said in The Diane Rehm show this morning was about how Boehner didn't want to rely on Democratic votes to keep the Speakership because that would be setting the precedent for Parliamentary governance - by which I think he actually meant the use of party coalitions, which wouldn't be new since Boehner has had to rely on Democratic votes to get must-pass things through before.

What will it take for establishment (ie. non-crazy) Republicans to get to the point where they feel they no longer have any choice but to do coalition governance with Democrats on a regular basis rather than just during manufactured crisis? Is that even possible given the primary system and the huge sway the crazy base holds over the process?
 
T

teiresias

Member
Aaron Strife said:
I heard there's a possibility Boehner will try and pass a full budget, but that'd seem awfully quick.

The grand bargain rides again
Click to expand...

I mean, it wouldn't surprise me, if there's any semblance of trying to save the party from it's own base's excesses in Boehner's motives rather than just getting himself out of dodge, the only way to do that in any somewhat long term way is to pass a full budget AND get the debt limit extension off the table before he leaves utilizing Democratic votes.
 
W

Wilsongt

Member
Heh. Rubio announced at a talk he was giving that Boehner was resigning and apparently the room broke out in cheers.

The extreme right and Evangelicals HATE Boehner.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
Wilsongt said:
Heh. Rubio announced at a talk he was giving that Boehner was resigning and apparently the room broke out in cheers.

The extreme right and Evangelicals HATE Boehner.
Click to expand...
Yeah, a lot of them just think he's a rubber stamp for the "Obama/Pelosi agenda" of keeping the government open. I guess those 80,000 votes to repeal Obamacare were for nothing.
 
T

thepotatoman

Unconfirmed Member
teiresias said:
Only a CR has been introduced in the Senate (and passed? I can't rememeber if a non-PP CR has actually passed yet, I know a PP-lined CR was blocked). There has been no talk of a full budget passing. The main talk has been about a CR into mid-December - you know, long enough to make all Fed Employees curb spending for the holiday season.

One interesting thing someone said in The Diane Rehm show this morning was about how Boehner didn't want to rely on Democratic votes to keep the Speakership because that would be setting the precedent for Parliamentary governance - by which I think he actually meant the use of party coalitions, which wouldn't be new since Boehner has had to rely on Democratic votes to get must-pass things through before.

What will it take for establishment (ie. non-crazy) Republicans to get to the point where they feel they no longer have any choice but to do coalition governance with Democrats on a regular basis rather than just during manufactured crisis? Is that even possible given the primary system and the huge sway the crazy base holds over the process?
Click to expand...

Sure, the CR was the path we were headed towards, but this news changes everything.
 
B

BertramCooper

Banned
I'm mildly disappointed that I can't take high school kids on our annual youth trips to D.C. to the speaker's office anymore.

The view from that balcony - goddamn.
 
T

thepotatoman

Unconfirmed Member
teiresias said:
It doesn't change when the fiscal year ends though and how much time they have to work on the appropriate legislation.
Click to expand...

He'll rush to make it happen. There's no way Boehner is falling on the sword just to delay the fight for a few months. And there's no way he wants to put the party through the simultaneous stress of finding a new speaker while fighting a funding battle.
 
T

teiresias

Member
thepotatoman said:
He'll rush to make it happen. There's no way Boehner is falling on the sword just to delay the fight for a few months. And there's no way he wants to put the party through the simultaneous stress of finding a new speaker while fighting a funding battle.
Click to expand...

You're assuming his motives involve giving a crap about the future of the party. He may not feel he recognizes it anymore.
 
H

HylianTom

Banned
General reaction to Kevin McCarthy on FreeRepublic thus far is pretty negative. In particular, they've dug-up a choice quote from 2013 where McCarthy says that immigration reform "is going to happen."

0-o-0

House Speaker John Boehner Resigns From Congress. Now What?

Boehner’s resignation sets off the inevitable scramble for leadership positions. Conservatives hope to elect a leader who doesn't take accept the limits of controlling the House of Representatives in a divided government. House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy is the favorite to become the next speaker, and is more popular among Boehner’s critics. And then what? Do Republicans promise to shut down the government every time they don’t get their way, whether it’s Planned Parenthood, Obamacare, or Iran? Or do they pressure McCarthy to quit if he doesn’t get them everything they want?

That's what Democrats forsee. House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi said Friday that Boehner's resignation shows how the House majority has been “hijacked by the fringe element of the Republican Party,” while Reid tweeted, “By ousting a good man like Speaker Boehner—someone who understood the art of compromise—the party of Eisenhower and Reagan is no more.”

It's now more like the party of Donald Trump.
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I

ivysaur12

Banned
McCarthy's district is 49.4% non-White and 35.5% Hispanic. He'd be a good ally on immigration reform
if this were like 1995
 
R

RustyNails

Member
thepotatoman said:
He'll rush to make it happen. There's no way Boehner is falling on the sword just to delay the fight for a few months. And there's no way he wants to put the party through the simultaneous stress of finding a new speaker while fighting a funding battle.
Click to expand...
I dont think he cares. Let some other guy hold the fort. Stepping down gives him only so much latitude with the tea people. McCarthy will face the same problem after CR bill ends.

They really have only two options: Capitulate and shut down the government, and roll with the punches. That will act as a pressure release valve for the nutties. Or, bend the knee and kiss Pelosi's ring. Boehner wanted to preserve his legacy and not have shutdowns defining it nor the label of traitor.
 
I

ivysaur12

Banned
Hillary didn't turn over a work email chain to Patreaus:

http://bigstory.ap.org/article/f80a...als-more-work-emails-clintons-private-account

WASHINGTON (AP) — Officials say the Obama administration has discovered a chain of emails that Hillary Rodham Clinton failed to turn over when she provided what she said was the full record of work-related correspondence as secretary of state.

The revelation adds to the growing questions related to the Democratic presidential front-runner's unusual usage of a private email account and server while in government.

The messages were exchanged with former top Gen. David Petraeus, beginning before Clinton entered office and continuing into her first days on the job.

Officials said they largely pertained to personnel matters and in no way dealt with classified material. But their existence challenges Clinton's claim that she has handed over the entirety of her work emails from the account.
Click to expand...
 
T

thepotatoman

Unconfirmed Member
RustyNails said:
I dont think he cares. Let some other guy hold the fort. Stepping down gives him only so much latitude with the tea people. McCarthy will face the same problem after CR bill ends.

They really have only two options: Capitulate and shut down the government, and roll with the punches. That will act as a pressure release valve for the nutties. Or, bend the knee and kiss Pelosi's ring. Boehner wanted to preserve his legacy and not have shutdowns defining it nor the label of traitor.
Click to expand...

He doesn't need any latitude with the tea party people anymore. Him announcing he'll step down takes away all the power the Tea Partiers had over him.

If he just hates the Tea Partiers, wouldn't the biggest FU to them be passing a full spending bill, not a CR?

Even if he's completely checked out, and is only sticking around to put whatever gets handed to him on floor, wouldn't McConnel work night and day to create a full spending bill that he'll send to Boehner to get passed?
 
I

ivysaur12

Banned
There it is:

Donald J. Trump ‏@realDonaldTrump 3m3 minutes ago
.@MarcoRubio is weak on illegal immigration and will allow anyone into the country.....
Click to expand...

Donald J. Trump ‏@realDonaldTrump 3m3 minutes ago
.....Has worst attendance record in Senate- rarely there to vote on a bill! @marcorubio
Click to expand...
 
R

RustyNails

Member
thepotatoman said:
He doesn't need any latitude with the tea party people anymore. Him announcing he'll step down takes away all the power the Tea Partiers had over him.

If he just hates the Tea Partiers, wouldn't the biggest FU to them be passing a full spending bill, not a CR?
Click to expand...
But that would mean he reneges on Hastert rule and is slumming with the Democrats.
 
I

ivysaur12

Banned
RustyNails said:
Not work related email found after Hillary turned over all work related emails. Breaking News
Click to expand...

Well...

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US_CLINTON_EMAILS?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT

The State Department's record of Clinton emails begins on March 18, 2009 - almost two months after she entered office. Before then, Clinton has said she used an old AT&T Blackberry email account, the contents of which she no longer can access.

The Petraeus emails, first discovered by the Defense Department and then passed to the State Department's inspector general, challenge that claim. They start on Jan. 10, 2009, with Clinton using the older email account. But by Jan. 28 - a week after her swearing in - she switched to using the private email address on a homebrew server that she would rely on for the rest of her tenure. There are less than 10 emails back and forth in total, officials said, and the chain ends on Feb. 1.
Click to expand...
 
J

Joey Fox

Self-Actualized Member
Now that Hillary's found to have lied about turning over all work-related emails, it should be open season on the deleted emails from the server. And whatever punishment should come for deleting public records in accordance with law.
 
R

Roland_Gunner

Member
thepotatoman said:
He doesn't need any latitude with the tea party people anymore. Him announcing he'll step down takes away all the power the Tea Partiers had over him.

If he just hates the Tea Partiers, wouldn't the biggest FU to them be passing a full spending bill, not a CR?
Click to expand...

Boehner presumably wants one of his allies like McCarthy or Scalise to replace him. Pushing a budget through with Dem support in place of the tea parties would hardly help that.
 
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