Spiritreaver
Member
Grats Plinko.
-
Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.
PoliGAF 2016 |OT10| Jill Stein Inflatable Love Doll
- Thread starter Aaron Strife
- Start date
- Status
cartoon_soldier
Member
Those are actually good polls for Clinton.
Aaron Strife
Banned
Ross leading NC-SEN is encouraging. I suspect the big three statewide elections in NC this year break the same way (Clinton, Cooper, Ross).
McGinty tied with Toomey is meh but could just be an outlier.
And solid leads for Clinton, too.
McGinty tied with Toomey is meh but could just be an outlier.
And solid leads for Clinton, too.
Manmademan
Member
this one seems nonsensical:
The article says she's up 8 in PA, and 4 in NC. Just about every other survey has given her wider margins in VA and CO than PA- and clinton just pulled a bunch of advertising from CO recently IIRC because the lead was so massive.
Michigan went +10 obama in the last two elections, its barely a battleground.
Ohio and florida have been floating around +5 Clinton over the last few months also.
To get down to "only" a 2 point lead given all that, Trump would have to be leading substantially in one of those battleground states, and I can't think of a single poll anywhere that does so. There's something strange with the methodology that leads them to that conclusion.
also:
one out of 3 African American voters in PA are "undecided" in McGinty vs. Toomey? Get the fuck out of here
The article says she's up 8 in PA, and 4 in NC. Just about every other survey has given her wider margins in VA and CO than PA- and clinton just pulled a bunch of advertising from CO recently IIRC because the lead was so massive.
Michigan went +10 obama in the last two elections, its barely a battleground.
Ohio and florida have been floating around +5 Clinton over the last few months also.
To get down to "only" a 2 point lead given all that, Trump would have to be leading substantially in one of those battleground states, and I can't think of a single poll anywhere that does so. There's something strange with the methodology that leads them to that conclusion.
also:
one out of 3 African American voters in PA are "undecided" in McGinty vs. Toomey? Get the fuck out of here
Aaron Strife
Banned
Lol Toomey only getting 1% of black voters. Hilarious.
The fact that a heavy portion of the undecideds in PA Senate are black bodes well for McGinty, I would figure.
The fact that a heavy portion of the undecideds in PA Senate are black bodes well for McGinty, I would figure.
TestOfTide
Banned
No. What we need is for Trump to be caught in a moment where he shows he knows nothing about politics. Angles for this would be:
- making Trump say that he thinks a wall can go right on top of Texas/Mexico border (which is impossible because that's the lower Rio Grande)
- making Trump claim that the Central Park 5 are still guilty
- making Trump accidentally say that he would support Assad (by asking if he would support everyone fighting ISIS and then bringing up that Assad is fighting both innocents and ISIS)
- making Trump say something about Russia that Manafort convinced him was true
- making Trump have to face the fact that violence has been declining over the past 2 decades
- Asking Trump to explain what he thinks is in the first amendment.
- Asking Trump to specify which statements he regrets making.
- Asking Trump what he thinks about the Brock Turner case.
- Asking Trump whether or not he thinks the Alt-Right specifically is respectful.
- Asking Trump what he thinks we should have done differently with Lybia.
- Asking Trump why he thinks we have NATO
- Asking Trump if he thinks we should do more international investments like the Marshall Plan
- Tricking Trump into saying that we should have destabilized Iran.
- Asking Trump if he feels that states should have the right to ban gay marriage.
- Asking Trump if how he thinks we won the Cold War.
- Tricking Trump into stating classified information on his own. (Obviously this one would be nearly impossible without looking like someone encouraging it)
- Tricking Trump into stating he doesn't care about the Geneva Convention.
- Asking Trump in what cases he is okay with abortion and if he says the standard GOP answer of "only in cases of rape or invest" ask him for details such as whether or not it would only be allowed after the rapist is convicted.
SolidSnakeUS
Member
Fucking hope so. Fuck Toomey.
The Technomancer
card-carrying scientician
This would be such a cheap gotcha and would rightfully be criticized as gamey, but it would be soooooooooooo satisfying
EDIT: Although I don't understand how this works, isn't that just about quartering soldiers?
Looking good.
Clicks and ratings supersede journalism in this case.
I don't know much about Lester, is he going to be able to ask the tough questions?
TestOfTide
Banned
Yeah it is. I'm thinking of a different amendment. Isn't one of the amendments about the 3/5th clause?
Edit: Never mind it's a section of one of the articles.
The Technomancer
card-carrying scientician
Its in an article, not an amendment, looking it up its Article 1, section 2
A bit harder to "get him" on unfortunately
TestOfTide
Banned
Yeah I took it out of the list.
For the ones that involve asking Trump, I'm not talking about the moderator asking Trump. I'm talking about Hillary asking Trump.
Northerners. No brainer.
RustyNails
Member
We need a real media watch group thats actually objective.
Manmademan
Member
This makes sense when you consider that black voters are almost entirely democratic in this state. Trump being the republican nominee is going to make them run away from republicans across the board.
they aren't undecided at all, which is the thing. Most black voters in the state live in the southeastern portion, clustered in Philadelphia and some of the inner suburbs. a smaller amount in Pittsburgh, Allentown, and Harrisburg.
Philadelphia is SO hostile to republicans that they usually don't even bother campaigning here. Implying that a full 1 in 3 "Dont know" if they're supporting the democratic or republican senate candidate is just bizarre. NO republican senate candidate has ever gotten anywhere near 1/3 support from black voters- toomey would be lucky to break the 5% mark.
RastaMentality
Banned
The shitty thing about Central Park 5 is that it only really resonates with groups Trump is losing terribly with already. Unless you frame it well, white suburbanites probably don't care about minorities being falsely accused.
Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Wow--WAY better than expected. Wonderful news.
Even better.
Congrats to America if this holds.
TestOfTide
Banned
Yeah I took it out. But the point was that they would be ways for Hillary to prove during a debate that Trump doesn't know anything detailed about US politics.
Manmademan
Member
they don't mention that in the article- in fact they limit the battleground states to 11, and spell out exactly which ones they are.
what they're using for their "battleground" polling (which is interviewing the same small sample of voters repeatedly over a number of weeks) doesn't line up with their traditional polling. it's garbage, and the race isn't that close.
TestOfTide
Banned
Well it will definitely look bad when the moderator has to point out that the Central Park 5 were exonerated by both DNA evidence and a genuine confession from the guy who actually committed the crime.
It would feed the narrative that Trump is a "Lynch Mob" kind of guy.
nature boy
Member
AZ, CO, FL, GA, IA, MI, NC, NH, NV, OH, PA, VA, WI
benjipwns
Banned
"For someone who desperately wants to move on from anyone looking at her endless scandals, Corrupt Hillary sure wants to bring up discredited smears from my past."
Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Yeah, I'm not getting that, either. I guess if each state shifted a couple percent toward Trump (like some polls have been showing) it could push toward him a little bit. Wisconsin's latest poll showed a big Clinton lead. New Hampshire, maybe? Iowa? I thought New Hampshire was clearly in Clinton territory.
Ah, that'll do it. Iowa, Georgia, and Nevada.
Manmademan
Member
ah, ok. I was looking at the older article which used 11, not 13. my bad. So arizona and GA knock it down to +2?
I'm still calling that one suspect.
edit: wait a minute, I can't find the quote in the article at all now. it looks like they originally cited the battleground states as 11, then updated it.
nature boy
Member
Main reason to vote for Trump?
To oppose Clinton (51%).
I'm guessing IA brings it down as well.
To oppose Clinton (51%).
I'm guessing IA brings it down as well.
TestOfTide
Banned
But again, the Central Park 5 stuff wouldn't be a smear. It would be yet another horrible action that Trump still hasn't apologized for.
If Trump denies, the moderator will be forced to point out the facts about the Central Park 5.
Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
I'm surprised it isn't higher.
Manmademan
Member
IA was in there originally. Only AZ and GA were added- and the margin didn't change.
The 11 original states post DNC had clinton up 43 to 41.
They've updated it to 13 to include AZ and GA (which lean red) and the margin is still 2 points- 42 to 40.
I can't see how that makes any sense at all. That would mean her lead got a lot wider among the original 11 "battleground" states that it was post DNC.
benjipwns
Banned
Has the Trump campaign agreed to allow the moderators to interject like that?
DontBeThatGuy
Member
He not only didn't apologize, he attacked them still, and basically said it's a disgrace they were awarded a settlement.
Manmademan
Member
won't be long until we're throwing texas and south carolina in, just to keep the "battleground!" narrative going.
I think the only way Hillary loses is if something happens that pushes a weak blue state red, maybe even one you don't expect like Wisconsin. Probably something that depresses turnout, like some damaging email that shows her saying fuck black people or something. That or she really flubs the debates. But she does so much prep wonky work that it's hard to believe that's possible.
nature boy
Member
PDF has IA: https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.n...nt/otjmya1ff7/Battleground_final_20160904.pdf
Guessing their sample is a bit pro-Trump, at least in some states.
She would have to sprout horns and start breathing fire at this point. It's not happening.
Manmademan
Member
I'm saying Iowa was among the 11 states originally in the battleground sample to begin with. it wasn't added.
This month it was updated to 13, to add AZ and GA. The margin didn't change. That would mean that hillary's lead in the original 11 states (including IA) would have to be larger than it was post DNC for that to be true.
The battleground polling doesn't make sense when taken in context with the state by state polling.
Looking into the polling, they're undersampling Hispanics by a bit and oversampling white voters. they're 6% of the poll with white voters at 76.
the 2012 voting pool was 10% hispanic and 72% white.
That would probably account for it.
RustyNails
Member
I SAID REAL
This man still is alive and in power:
Don't worry, he'll be out by January.
benjipwns
Banned
No, he just won the 2016 election (with 94% of the vote) for the term ending in 2023.
Oh, you were not talking about Obama.
Snowman Prophet of Doom
Member
What's funny is this debate was the exact reverse of an earlier debate during, I think, the formation of the Articles of Confederacy, in which the South wanted slaves to not be counted for the purposes of taxation, while the North wanted them to be. Slaves had Schrodinger's humanity.
nature boy
Member
Yeah the sampling looks a bit off, and the previous tracker was before the Khan controversy, but I wouldn't put much weight in that 13-state poll. The NC and PA polls are far more important.
benjipwns
Banned
I certainly did not specifically choose that picture to suggest that's who I was talking about if that's what you're claiming. I would never do such a thing.
Manmademan
Member
exactly.
- Status
Similar threads
- Locked
- Locked
- Locked
- Locked