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PoliGAF 2016 |OT10| Jill Stein Inflatable Love Doll

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T

thebloo

Member
nature boy said:
I'm serious, while you can debate putting up that graphic, if the CNN poll has demographic issues (you had a REPUBLICAN pollster on MTP Daily questioning the demographics) why shouldn't it pointed even if it's a rival network?
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Because they have their own poll? Show that one.

Also, since Fox does it, it's automatically not good.
 
R

royalan

Member
I don't think it's unreasonable to assume a higher percentage of uneducated white turnout, considering the Trump campaign is targeting them with its rhetoric more directly than any Republican candidate on modern times.

/armchairPunditry
 
M

Manmademan

Member
royalan said:
I don't think it's unreasonable to assume a higher percentage of uneducated white turnout, considering the Trunk campaign is targeting them with its rhetoric more directly than any Republican candidate on modern times.

/armchairPunditry
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the problem with uneducated whites is that most of them aren't registered in the first place.
There's been no data showing a surge in uneducated white voter registration anywhere to assume they're going to be turning out in astronomical numbers.
 
P

Paskil

Member
I got tacos for dinner. From a taqueria, not a truck. No one really does food trucks here since I have always heard our local regulations are a fucking hassle to navigate and with which to comply. We have a crap load of food carts, though. I'm hoping Hillary can slice through the bureaucracy and streamline the process so we can have our trucks on every corner.
 
K

Kusagari

Member
Murphy has a legitimate chance but FL is going to be close regardless and all Rubes needs is enough Cubans split-ticket voting to win.
 
C

Cybit

FGC Waterboy
Nafai1123 said:
So white voters are going to become a larger part of the voting electorate this year despite historical trends showing the latino vote growing every year?
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You could also point out that the youth vote probably was abnormally high during the Obama elections, and that expecting a 50% turnout from 18-29 (or 18-35) is insanely optimistic.

Could also point out that 50% of the Latino population of the entire country is in Texas and California.

Could also point out that Clinton might not generate the same amount of AA turnout as the first AA president did (and adding in happy fun voter suppression laws).

Could also point out that there's a noted enthusiasm gap on the side of Clinton that could manifest in turnout issues, especially in a race that many folks expect Clinton to win and thus have stopped caring. Especially in a race that I think has the two least liked candidates in modern history.

Your demographics aren't particularly useful if your turnout is shit. As long as Trump doesn't go completely off the rails (which admittedly is not the highest probability considering Trump's propensity to do so); you may not get that Obama level turnout.

aaaaa0 said:
You forgot the hover text, which is perfect:


lol
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It's so true. So, so true.
 
E

Ecotic

Member
It helps to win Florida or Ohio if there's competitive races up and down the ticket. Maybe someone's not enamored with Hillary but they want to vote Murphy and while they're at it they throw Hillary a bone because why not, she is a Democrat too. Or vice versa. That's what is helping in North Carolina where Democrats can win a Senate seat and the Governorship back.

Maybe Rubio is the overwhelming favorite but it's not helping Democrat enthusiasm in the state if word gets out that the Senate race is no longer being contested. A lot of the people manning the phones for the whole ticket in those states do so because winning a Senate seat or the Governorship is the lasting effect for them from the election.
 
V

VendettaRed07

Member
royalan said:
I don't think it's unreasonable to assume a higher percentage of uneducated white turnout, considering the Trump campaign is targeting them with its rhetoric more directly than any Republican candidate on modern times.

/armchairPunditry
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Higher turn out of white men without college degrees, I'd agree with that being possible/likely

But I do not under any circumstances see Trump getting more white women than Romney. I think Romney achieved about as much of the white vote as a candidate can realistically get.
 
S

SirClinksAlot

Member
royalan said:
This I will agree with.

Here in Philly over the weekend I saw the "Hillary: this is my jobs plan" ad exactly once. But the "*Night shot of White House* Trump is dangerous!" ad runs pretty much nonstop.

Hillary needs to be more forceful in selling herself, because the media has made it clear they aren't going to do it for her.
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Yeah, that is the only ad I see here in Arizona. I would definitely like to see an ad that sells her to people.
 
B

BlastProcessing

Member
The Wang has spoken:

Holidays are over. I see that journalists, including poll aggregators, are still focused on the Presidential horserace. As Electoral-Vote.com has pointed out, sites such as FiveThirtyEight are under economic pressure to attract traffic. And there is nothing to attract eyeballs like a crazy Presidential race. Still, from a substantive standpoint, it might be more appropriate to spend efforts on, I dunno…issues? See this excellent critique of media coverage by Jeff Jarvis, which includes a good hard whack at the media obsession with “balance” and polls – basically, tricks to let reporters escape engaging head-on with substantive issues. If journalists insist on horserace coverage, at least focus on downticket races in Senate, House, and even state legislatures – and maybe write about some issues along the way. These races will determine the power dynamic in 2017 under the new President, whoever she may be.

Just to remind everyone, variations in this year’s race are quite narrow, consistent with the last 20 years of partisan polarization. Polarization has made both the GOP and Democratic nominees unacceptable to nearly all supporters of the other party. In addition, Donald Trump is radioactive to about one-fifth of his own party. As a result, this year’s race is full of melodrama, but numerically stable. In 2016, the Princeton Election Consortium’s state poll-based aggregate has only varied between a median outcome of 310 and 350 EV for Hillary Clinton.

The Meta-Margin, which is defined as the front-runner’s effective lead using Electoral College mechanisms, is a very low-noise and stable measure – as opposed to single polls, which can be all over the place. You should generally ignore single polls, especially ones that surprise you. The Meta-Margin has varied between Clinton +2.5% and Clinton +6.5%, and is now at Clinton +4.0%, close to the season average of 3.8%. If it left the 2.5-6.5% range, that would be interesting. That has not occurred yet.
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V

VendettaRed07

Member
Also I get Obama is a busy man, but we are going to need more campaigning and stumping from him than there has been since the convention.

We could use Bernie too but I've given up on him.
 
J

Joeytj

Banned
royalan said:
This I will agree with.

Here in Philly over the weekend I saw the "Hillary: this is my jobs plan" ad exactly once. But the "*Night shot of White House* Trump is dangerous!" ad runs pretty much nonstop.

Hillary needs to be more forceful in selling herself, because the media has made it clear they aren't going to do it for her.
Click to expand...

Right now, perhaps, yes.

Hillary should sell herself a bit more and just let Trump drown himself. We now know that part of the tightening of polls comes from people being more suspicious of her.

But, at the same time, just getting out there more will help and perhaps that's all what she needs.
 
T

thefro

Member
Andrea Mitchell says Obama was disrespected in Asia because he didn't attack Assad after the "red line". NBC needs to fire her because she constantly says crap like this, whether covering foreign policy badly or trying to tank Democratic campaigns.
 
B

Bowdz

Member
BlastProcessing said:
The Wang has spoken:
Click to expand...

Solid analysis as always.

The great Wang is a strong and solid academic who's girth of knowledge is as massive as the pulsating lobes of his brain. After days of constant excitement and anticipation between new posts, his knowledge erupts onto the media landscape coating every pundit with his knowledge.

Truly, the great Wang is an integral part of our media environment in this season.
 
I

ItWasMeantToBe19

Banned
Trump's extremely good numbers about white evangelicals aren't really being talked about in terms of white evangelicals actually liking him and that's being ridiculously kind. They liked Cruz more, but most polls I've seen have white evangelicals as the group most strongly supporting Trump.

I don't think people want to admit that the most politically powerful religious group in the nation is fully on board with a white nationalist who has no interest in religion and probably paid off mistresses to get abortions and imports young women to be slave models.
 
R

royalan

Member
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
Trump's extremely good numbers about white evangelicals aren't really being talked about in terms of white evangelicals actually liking him and that's being ridiculously kind. They liked Cruz more, but most polls I've seen have white evangelicals as the group most strongly supporting Trump.

I don't think people want to admit that the most politically powerful religious group in the nation is fully on board with a white nationalist who has no interest in religion and probably paid off mistresses to get abortions and imports young women to be slave models.
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Because the white evangelical voting block has never actually been about religion.
 
U

ugaboga232

Member
Having met Wang and had dinner with him, he is truly a heavyweight in all his intellectual pursuits.

Am I doing the innuendo right?
 
U

User 463088

Banned
So, like, I agree with everyone who said what Chuck Todd did was stupid. I think it's fine to have conversations about what the electorate is going to look like. I think it's less fine to then "fix" them based on your model. : cough IPSOS state polls and 538 cough : Also, I need the media to grow a pair and start not being trash for a few weeks. K thnx.

Also, straight guys? You're very lucky you don't have to date men. Because, from time to time, I'm reminded that men are basically worse than children who never listen to you when you're right, and then you end up having to go to the ER because your bf thinks he's still 20 and can play basketball with college kids (hint he can't).

: cough :
 
U

User 85168

Banned
Grandma Hillary put out a 288 pg. policy book.

Thanks for the bed time story, abuela.
sleeping.gif
 
R

rSpooky

Member
Chi said:
Grandma Hillary put out a 288 pg. policy book.

Thanks for the bed time story, abuela.
sleeping.gif
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Thanks for the heads up , next time if one of my coworkers mentions again they which the candidates would just say what they would do then I can point them to this because apparently so far it has been to hard for them to actually listen to what Hillary has been saying.
 
V

Valhelm

contribute something
royalan said:
Because the white evangelical voting block has never actually been about religion.
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Were you the one who made the argument that the Evangelical identity is just code for soft white nationalism?

That was pretty interesting, I hadn't heard anyone raise that point before.
 
R

royalan

Member
Valhelm said:
Were you the one who made the argument that the Evangelical identity is just code for soft white nationalism?

That was pretty interesting, I hadn't heard anyone raise that point before.
Click to expand...

Yeah, but Samantha Bee made the point even better than I did.

(Can someone link it? I'm at work. :( )
 
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