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[Zukkoyaki]

"Wall" is a stupid word. If you're up by 5, you'll be up by a good amount in several states. If you're tied, you will not be up in several states.

Kind of surprised that Trump's open feud with Kasich hasn't hurt him at all in Ohio.

Ohio polls have been extremely mixed from a variety of pollsters. I bet it's going to be 50/50 there.

 

[darkstar0155]

The only poll result that is concerning in any of that is that Trump is +4 in OH in the four-way.

Remember that third-party voters drop by like 60% in the last two months of the election season, though.

Living in Ohio, I'm not surprised. There are a good amount of males even in the NE of the state that just will not vote for her and are still pretty sexist.

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

Mia Love up by 19 in a new Utah poll.

It's over there unless it turns out that Love was taking money from foreign donors or something.

So that sucks.

 

[bangbang i'm a timpani]

If I'm running Hillary's campaign, I'm full-bore campaigning in PA and NH the rest of the way. PA and NH are really the two main possible states that could turn this election to Trump (and both are a stretch). If she locks down PA and NH, it's over. Just give Biden an unlimited credit card and let him walk around the state of PA until election day.

FL and OH are almost as important here, and I still don't trust Michigan's polling after the Bernie/primary thing, so those would also be priorities.

nah i think she should go disappear for another month while everyone talks about how she has this in the bag that seems to work well for her

 

[thebloo]

I still don't trust Michigan's polling after the Bernie/primary thing.

You realise this doesn't make sense, right? An open primary is way more fluid.

 

[Crayons]

My favorite Diablos was the "OH MY FUCKING GOD, RUBIO IS WINNING THE DC SUBURBS IN VIRGINIA!!!" on Super Tuesday before Rubio's political career was killed like two hours later.

My favorite Diablos was when the early New York primary early exit polls came out and they showed the race to be much closer than it actually was.

 

[Link]

Don't they already have their own court system AND Police?

Yes, and highly successful shows about both of them have been made.

 

[thebloo]

My favorite Diablos was when the early New York primary early exit polls came out and they showed the race before the fraud.

Fixed.

 

[NeoXChaos]

PPP VA will probably be Tuesday. Latino Decisions tomorrow on Hispanic heavy states.

 

[Plinko]

You realise this doesn't make sense, right? An open primary is way more fluid.

More to do with my personal distrust of everything Michigan. Lived there a long, long time and what it has become is disheartening to me.

 

[AntraxSuicide]

I think it's likely that, when push comes to shove, Wallace will value his reputation and ongoing career over protecting a flash-in-the-pan lightweight.

Yeah, one thing that's super clear from reading Wallace's comments on fact checking is that he believes the candidates are responsible for that. To say this another way, I hope he means that the door is open for a prepared candidate *cough* to fact check their opponent at will. Ithink Wallace is basically going to let Hillary blast Trump without pause as long as her statements are factual.

 

[balladofwindfishes]

nah i think she should go disappear for another month while everyone talks about how she has this in the bag that seems to work well for her

She raised a boatload of money and Trump still has no reasonable path to the White House, so maybe it did work well for her?

 

[Paches]

Might be a repeat, but worth it: (Old Colbert interview)

Trump doesn't know what the 13 stripes mean

 

[nature boy]

I can't see Clinton losing Ohio or Florida with her GOTV operations.

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

Mia Love vs. Doug Owens is kind of interesting in that Mia Love is basically the ultimate example of a congressperson who doesn't care at all about her state or district and just cares about national policies that affect people in the south so Doug Owens ran on a "Utah first!" platform and... it hasn't seemed to work.

Guess voters care more about national stuff than local stuff with their congresspersons except in West Virginia.

 

[whyamihere]

@ForecasterEnten
Q-Pac has whites making up only 64% of the vote in NC. Suffolk has them at 69%. They were 71% in 2012.

69 feels more realistic.

 

[NYCmetsfan]

I'm sorry. A poll that shows Hillary up by more in NC than FL and OH is going right into the trashbin in my mind.

Kinda makes sense trump is doing way worse with college educated whites and there's not many blue collar Dems to lose in NC like in Florida and OH

 

[Wolfgunblood Garopa]

Living in Ohio, I'm not surprised. There are a good amount of males even in the NE of the state that just will not vote for her and are still pretty sexist.

From my experience working with many, many conservatives of all levels of obnoxiousness, I would guess that the white male conservative professional vote is going to be depressed. Not enough for Strickland, but enough for Clinton.

 

[balladofwindfishes]

69 feels more realistic.

That would explain the weirdly positive NC number.

...hopefully the other states didn't have the same issue with a low white count lol

 

[Zukkoyaki]

This is the second surprisingly solid NC poll for Clinton in the past week. I feel like her chances of taking it are pretty decent. Of course there was the Suffolk poll, but that means three polls, two have Clinton +4 and one with Trump +3. Points toward the edge being with Clinton.

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

Rand Paul supporting a man who wants to be dictator and end freedom of religion and of the press. Rand Paul is supporting a man that wants to blow up the national debt to unheard of levels and wants to blow up the six of government. Rand Paul is supporting a man that wants to murder the family members of terrorists intentionally.

Note: Rand Paul is just a rich guy who wants to smoke weed and have lower taxes.

 

[nature boy]

Kyle Kondik ‏@kkondik 59s59 seconds ago
FWIW - there are 23 polls of Ohio listed by RealClearPolitics this cycle. Only 3 have shown Trump leading, and they're all from Quinnipiac

Ha.

 

[whyamihere]

just an fyi

@kkondik
FWIW - there are 23 polls of Ohio listed by RealClearPolitics this cycle. Only 3 have shown Trump leading, and they're all from Quinnipiac

@kkondik
There have also been six ties (two of those are from Quinnipiac).

EDIT: FUCK YOU NATURE BOY

 

[BlastProcessing]

Katy Tur ‏@KatyTurNBC 46m46 minutes ago
The fact that Trump keeps trying to "set the record straight" on Iraq shows the campaign is worried his inconsistencies on it are sticking.

 

[somedevil]

That would explain the weirdly positive NC number.

...hopefully the other states didn't have the same issue with a low white count lol

Not sure if they weighted it but in Ohio they have 83 when it was 79 in 2012.

Pennsylvania they have 80 when it was 78 in 2012

In Florida they have 63 when it was 67 in 2012.

 

[Teggy]

Pretty much this. This campaign makes no sense.

Sage Boggs ‏@sageboggs 47m47 minutes ago
TRUMP: abortions should be punishable & I'd date my daughter
EVERYONE: lol wut
GARY JOHNSON: what is Aleppo?
EVERYONE: YOUR CAMPAIGN IS OVER

 

[The Lamonster]

God I hate when Trump sucks his teeth every time he thinks he's saying something smart.

I'm glad someone else noticed and is annoyed by this.

God I can't wait for him to crawl back into his hole after the election.

 

[nature boy]

just an fyi





EDIT: FUCK YOU NATURE BOY

Haha, sorry.

 

[Kangi]

My favorite Diablos was the "OH MY FUCKING GOD, RUBIO IS WINNING THE DC SUBURBS IN VIRGINIA!!!" on Super Tuesday before Rubio's political career was killed like two hours later.

Mine was when white precincts in Philadelphia came in and showed Bernie leading.

 

[Fragamemnon]

Mittens polled very similarly to Clinton in NC in 2012 and won by 2 points, and that seems about the current margin in play right now for Clinton.

edit: Not seeing how Aleppo is a real disaster for Johnson. His bigger problem is transitioning his campaign from a protest vote to actual support, because without pulling that off he'll fall off hard by later this month.

 

[Paches]

I'm glad someone else noticed and is annoyed by this.

God I can't wait for him to crawl back into his hole after the election.

I don't think that is happening, he will still be in the news for a long time after this is all wrapped up.

 

[darkstar0155]

From my experience working with many, many conservatives of all levels of obnoxiousness, I would guess that the white male conservative professional vote is going to be depressed. Not enough for Strickland, but enough for Clinton.

yep, I agree there. However, Clinton has much less white male support than Obama from what I have seen in the akron area. Obviously anecdotal but GOTV will be crucial in ohio this year.

 

[Emarv]

yeah, those polls are fine (if not odd) and nothing to freak out over. feeling good if this is her lowest point so far and we're just getting started on the post-Labor Day campaigning.

 

[RustyNails]

NYT holding massive, massive L. Two corrections in one story about Johnson. They misidentified Aleppo as ISIS' capital and also misidentified it as Syria's capital.

Holy shit wow. Trump may actually be right. NYT is failwhale.

 

[User 463088]

Those polls are fine. Like, that's kinda where I would expect things to be. The one thing I will mention, is there is no way in hell Johnson is getting 20% of the white, male vote in Ohio. That's just not happening.

Also, this is weird. I went to Penny's to get uniform pants for the boys....and if you showed your Pokemon (from Pokemon GO!) you got 15% off whatever you bought. Which...was weird. Also, school cafeteria food is terrible. Like, awful levels bad.

 

[whyamihere]

Katy Tur ‏@KatyTurNBC 46m46 minutes ago
The fact that Trump keeps trying to "set the record straight" on Iraq shows the campaign is worried his inconsistencies on it are sticking.

Yuuuuup.

 

[BlastProcessing]

Mittens polled very similarly to Clinton in NC in 2012 and won by 2 points, and that seems about the current margin in play right now for Clinton.

edit: Not seeing how Aleppo is a real disaster for Johnson. His bigger problem is transitioning his campaign from a protest vote to actual support, because without pulling that off he'll fall off hard by later this month.

It's not just that he didn't know the word Aleppo of the top of his head.

A cross post from the OT thread:

Let's recap:

1. He is asked about Aleppo and doesn't know what it is.

2. He is directly told that Aleppo is the center of the refugee crisis in Syria.

3. Upon hearing Syria he latches on to it and launches into a pre rehearsed answer on US military involvement in Syria. He completely missed the core of the question even though it was explicitly spelled out for him.

4. In that answer, he says that the US should align itself militarily with Russia even though Russia is one of the forces that is indiscriminately bombing Aleppo.

5. In a follow up interview downstairs he says that Aleppo is a city between the two forces in Syria, implying that there are only two factions in the conflict.

6. He then pivots to how this is similar to when he didn't know the name of a small town when he was Governor of New Mexico.


This wasn't just a politician who forgot a word, this was a politician displaying on live TV that he is completely in over his head. From bean to cup, he fucked up. There is a reason why most of Johnson's national TV appearances have had Weld sitting by his side babysitting him.

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

Editor's note: The following story was published in the August 2004 issue of Esquire. During the 2016 presidential election, Donald Trump has repeatedly claimed to have been against the Iraq War from the beginning, and he has cited this story as proof. The Iraq War began in March 2003, more than a year before this story ran, thus nullifying Trump's timeline. More details can be found here.

That feeling when you get owned by the story you cited.

http://www.esquire.com/news-politics/a37230/donald-trump-esquire-cover-story-august-2004/

 

[pigeon]

Frankly, the correct response to "What about Aleppo?" is "Can you rephrase that question so that it makes sense?"

 

[whyamihere]

AHHHH

@Fahrenthold
Interesting. Another charity says it never got money that @realDonaldTrump's Fdn said it gave. No record of this $5K

@Fahrenthold
This is the 5th time a charity told me they didn't get $ that @realDonaldTrump's Fdn told the IRS it had given them.David Fahrenthold added,

 

[Thaedolus]

AHHHH

Tax fraud is no big deal right?

 

[B-Dubs]

AHHHH

Trump's entire charity is looking like a goddamn scam.

 

[pigeon]

69 feels more realistic.

ERROR

THIS TWEET IS COMPARING EXITS/VOTER FILE WITH PRE-ELECTION POLLS

 

[Plinko]

AHHHH

This story needs to hit huge. Blatant tax fraud.

 

[Debirudog]

AHHHH

Plllllleaaase, media, pllllleeeeeeease.

 

[nature boy]

14.7 million viewers for NBC and MSNBC? Not bad.

Beauuuutiful

 

[Slayven]

I watched many episodes of JAG on the treadmill at my gym. Can confirm

Oh my god Cathrine Bell.

Not many people remember NCIS is actually a spinoff of Jag

 

[darkstar0155]

Those polls are fine. Like, that's kinda where I would expect things to be. The one thing I will mention, is there is no way in hell Johnson is getting 20% of the white, male vote in Ohio. That's just not happening.

Also, this is weird. I went to Penny's to get uniform pants for the boys....and if you showed your Pokemon (from Pokemon GO!) you got 15% off whatever you bought. Which...was weird. Also, school cafeteria food is terrible. Like, awful levels bad.

completely missed the 20%johnson. I know I have numerous white male friends in the akron area that I don't think will vote for Hillary, but also wont vote for trump. But 20% is ridiculous.

 

[whyamihere]

ERROR

THIS TWEET IS COMPARING EXITS/VOTER FILE WITH PRE-ELECTION POLLS

UGH. DAMMIT. I DID IT.

 

[DrForester]

Katy Tur ‏@KatyTurNBC 46m46 minutes ago
The fact that Trump keeps trying to "set the record straight" on Iraq shows the campaign is worried his inconsistencies on it are sticking.

It's not sticking because no one is calling him out on it. Soon as reporters get a backbone then maybe it will stick. But like most of his lies, he's getting a pass because the media wants their close race.