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PoliGAF 2016 |OT10| Jill Stein Inflatable Love Doll

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G

Geg

Member
Clinton -1 in Ohio but +4 in NC is a little weird, that's like the opposite of what previous polls have been
 
Dominican Power

Dominican Power

Member
I love how Trump talks about helping the inner city, yet has lived in NYC for decades and I haven't heard him do shit to help the poor black/brown people here.
 
P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
I'm still shocked that Hillary basically sat out August. Makes zero sense to me and allowed Trump right back in this thing.
 
H

Holmes

Member
StoOgE said:
I'm sorry. A poll that shows Hillary up by more in NC than FL and OH is going right into the trashbin in my mind.
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Maybe. But I think there will be a lot of movement in North Carolina this year that some people will be caught off guard once the results start coming in.
 
W

whyamihere

Banned
(I don't believe Johnson will do that well in OH, but OHwell ha ha ha ha ha)

Also:

@NateSilver538
Overall, about what you'd expect given a 3-4 point Clinton nat'l lead. OH & NC are mildly surprising, but sort of cancel one another out.
Click to expand...

Plinko said:
I'm still shocked that Hillary basically sat out August. Makes zero sense to me and allowed Trump right back in this thing.
Click to expand...

There was no chance that her convention bounce would continue as is. There isn't really any momentum in this race, or contours in this race that we haven't seen. It was probably always likely to end up back where it was in 2012.
 
I

Ignatz Mouse

Banned
Just to make sure I have this right...

Last night, Clinton got put on the defensive and had the worst crap brought up again, while Trump got softballs and allowance to lie and ramble...

But the reaction today is calling that out, and Clinton is up in betting markets (a decent forerunner of polls).

Feels like we have turned a corner.
 
W

whyamihere

Banned
@ddale8
Here, paraphrased, are seven things Donald Trump just said about his Iraq War position in the span of two minutes.

Cr2kKQmW8AEKNgu.jpg:large
Click to expand...

YEAH!
 
F

Fragamemnon

Member
pretty much diabmehing at those polls.

edit: all the pile on about august-the real issue is that her campaign underestimated how little care the public has about the Olympics, and then made a bet that left alone the Trump campaign would continue to flail about wildly. The hedge against Trump getting his crap together was raising a giant pile of cash-if he did, they can outspend him, if he didn't, then she could funnel it down ticket and spread out the map/tactically overlap with swing state competitive senate races.

As it turns out the media kind of took a dump on her and Trump didn't strangle a baby on live TV, so she'll have to back off a bit from the latter. But it was still solid reasoning, especially if you factor in misjudging how much people care bout the Olympics (on the other hand, Trump can't stand not being the center of attention all the time).
 
H

HylianTom

Banned
My main takeaway from this type of polling release: the wall holds. The gravy states are all close.

If this is a "tightened" race, I have to laugh.
 
P

PantherLotus

Professional Schmuck
I had to swear off politics for the past several days / since that horrendous coughing fit thread. What are we panicking about today, PoliGAF?
 
B

balladofwindfishes

Member
Ignatz Mouse said:
Just to make sure I have this right...

Last night, Clinton got put on the defensive and had the worst crap brought up again, while Trump got softballs and allowance to lie and ramble...

But the reaction today is calling that out, and Clinton is up in betting markets (a decent forerunner of polls).

Feels like we have turned a corner.
Click to expand...

Johnson also destroyed his presidential campaign

But yea, that's about where we are today. Hillary's really started up on the campaigning and it's looking good.
 
P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
If I'm running Hillary's campaign, I'm full-bore campaigning in PA and NH the rest of the way. PA and NH are really the two main possible states that could turn this election to Trump (and both are a stretch). If she locks down PA and NH, it's over. Just give Biden an unlimited credit card and let him walk around the state of PA until election day.

FL and OH are almost as important here, and I still don't trust Michigan's polling after the Bernie/primary thing, so those would also be priorities.
 
Z

Zukkoyaki

Member
TestOfTide said:
Yeah that's not good because it means Trump's ceiling is no longer just ~40%.

RV or LV?
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LV

also if you look at the four-way numbers they're back down to Trump's ceiling:

PA: C-44, T-39
NC: C-42, T-38
FL: C-43, T-43
OH: T-41, C-37

Plinko said:
If I'm running Hillary's campaign, I'm full-bore campaigning in PA and NH the rest of the way. PA and NH are really the two main possible states that could turn this election to Trump (and both are a stretch). If she locks down PA and NH, it's over. Just give Biden an unlimited credit card and let him walk around the state of PA until election day.

FL and OH are almost as important here, and I still don't trust Michigan's polling after the Bernie/primary thing, so those would also be priorities.
Click to expand...

I really think that's the plan. Bill Clinton, Elizabeth Warren and Obama are all going to campaign for Hillary in PA over the next week. She's also spending way more in those states and has a much better ground game there as well.
 
P

pigeon

Banned
The only poll result that is concerning in any of that is that Trump is +4 in OH in the four-way.

Remember that third-party voters drop by like 60% in the last two months of the election season, though.
 
P

pigeon

Banned
Plinko said:
If I'm running Hillary's campaign, I'm full-bore campaigning in PA and NH the rest of the way. PA and NH are really the two main possible states that could turn this election to Trump (and both are a stretch). If she locks down PA and NH, it's over. Just give Biden an unlimited credit card and let him walk around the state of PA until election day.

FL and OH are almost as important here, and I still don't trust Michigan's polling after the Bernie/primary thing, so those would also be priorities.
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https://www.hillaryclinton.com/page/jobs-and-internships/
 
C

Cybit

FGC Waterboy
pigeon said:
The media spent most of this year aggressively attacking Trump and pointing out his unfitness for office, to the degree that Vox published an explainer about why the media was willing to directly attack Trump. We discussed their efforts to do so repeatedly in this thread!

To suggest that they've been helping Trump all along because "all they care about is horserace narratives" is ignorant of the events of this actual campaign season. It's a facile and cynical argument that we rightly criticized when Bernie supporters made the exact same arguments about the media being in the tank for Hillary, and it is the beginning of the reflexive rejection of news stories we don't like that led to the epistemic closure which enabled Donald Trump. It's also, frankly, counterproductive, because what motivation do the media have to hold candidates accountable if you will accuse them of coddling Republicans no matter what they do? I prefer to live in the reality-based community.

I would agree that there has been a recent shift in the media coverage of Trump, and I'd date it to the employment of Bannon and Conway. Bannon made his fame persuading mainstream media sources to cover his insane right-wing stories. Manipulating media coverage is actually his specialty. Some of the missteps recently seem to have been due to the campaign pushing narratives out to the media that ended up not matching the events that actually took place (like Trump's immigration speech, where they told everybody it would be a pivot and then didn't give anybody copies of the actual speech).

So I think it's fine to criticize the media for some of their recent stories and behavior -- and I have done so. I complained about the alt-right speech coverage and I even wrote to the Times public editor! But suggesting that they have always and consistently covered the race incorrectly is false and dumb. They have recently gotten worse. Get it right!
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Preach.

BlastProcessing said:
Friend, that's the pessimistic map.
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Yep. Electorally we've always had a pretty decent wall. Basically as long as we can hold PA and VA, I think we're OK. Personally I think PA is the one we should concentrate on holding, just because I think whatever causes Trump to sweep the rest of the Midwest and gray states in that map would probably disproportionately help him in PA instead of VA.
 
M

metalslimer

Member
Maybe I'm misunderstanding but wouldn't absolute free choice in schools result in a worsening of the schools of kids who can't get to the better schools?
 
I

ItWasMeantToBe19

Banned
"Wall" is a stupid word. If you're up by 5, you'll be up by a good amount in several states. If you're tied, you will not be up in several states.

Kind of surprised that Trump's open feud with Kasich hasn't hurt him at all in Ohio.
 
N

NeoXChaos

Member
Plinko said:
If I'm running Hillary's campaign, I'm full-bore campaigning in PA and NH the rest of the way. PA and NH are really the two main possible states that could turn this election to Trump (and both are a stretch). If she locks down PA and NH, it's over. Just give Biden an unlimited credit card and let him walk around the state of PA until election day.

FL and OH are almost as important here, and I still don't trust Michigan's polling after the Bernie/primary thing, so those would also be priorities.
Click to expand...

Trump has no ground game. We good broski.
 
I

ItWasMeantToBe19

Banned
My favorite Diablos was the "OH MY FUCKING GOD, RUBIO IS WINNING THE DC SUBURBS IN VIRGINIA!!!" on Super Tuesday before Rubio's political career was killed like two hours later.
 
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