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PoliGAF 2016 |OT10| Jill Stein Inflatable Love Doll

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J

Joe Shlabotnik

Banned
R

RustyNails

Member
Joe Shlabotnik said:
Chris Cilizza is a WaPo writer whose erection for the emails story has lasted at least a year and a half. You might call him an emails pioneer.

When his own paper is publishing editorials telling everyone to get over it you have to wonder if the worm has turned with the media on this a bit.
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For some reason I get confused between Chris Clizza and Ryan Lizza. Ryan Lizza writes politics for New Yorker and is also a CNN commentator, and he was surprisingly better than the horrible Hillary surrogate this morning. The surrogate was trying to argue that Hillary was talking to Trump supporters....in a room full of mega donors. Poppy Harlow interjected with "?? wut ??" and he tried to double down some more, saying not all of the people in the fundraiser were "rich". It was ridiculous to watch. That guy needs to get booted, like yesterday. Thankfully, Ryan Lizza talked about David Duke, Breitbart and the rampant racism in Trump rallies as it related to Hillary's comments.
 
Z

Zukkoyaki

Member
To shift gears a little bit, ABC has a new national poll coming out tomorrow and YouGov has OH and FL polls coming as well. Prepare to Diablos.

Actually who knows, we were all pleasantly surprised by YouGov's PA and NC polls last week so you never know.
 
T

TestOfTide

Banned
Zukkoyaki said:
To shift gears a little bit, ABC has a new national poll coming out tomorrow and YouGov has OH and FL polls coming as well. Prepare to Diablos.

Actually who knows, we were all pleasantly surprised by YouGov's PA and NC polls last week so you never know.
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Would those polls have been affected by Trump's disaster at the CiC Forum?
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
Presumably they won't have been conducted over Labor Day weekend so that's a plus.

If Clinton is +3 or better there's probably nothing to worry about. That especially goes for Ohio and Florida.

Maybe they'll show Murphy close to Rubio? Certainly hope so, Dems need to take him down. Last week's NC poll from YouGov had Ross up.
 
U

User 463088

Banned
Aaron Strife said:
Presumably they won't have been conducted over Labor Day weekend so that's a plus.

If Clinton is +3 or better there's probably nothing to worry about. That especially goes for Ohio and Florida.

Maybe they'll show Murphy close to Rubio? Certainly hope so, Dems need to take him down. Last week's NC poll from YouGov had Ross up.
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With YouGov, I'd assume a tie in FL and Hillary +2 in Ohio.
 
J

Joeytj

Banned
nature boy said:
You're an optimistic person, no way they spend more than 10 minutes on 9/11.
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It'll be a bit more than that, especially because both candidates pledged to halt campaigning for the day and are attending memorials.

Of course, that won't stop everybody else from talking about the campaigns.
 
N

nature boy

Member
LMAO, Spicer doesn't dissapoint

Sean Spicer ‏@seanspicer 2h2 hours ago
.@realDonaldTrump Statement on @HillaryClinton calling 40+ million Americans "deportables" http://bit.ly/2cu4M7o
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https://twitter.com/seanspicer/status/774701280476487681


-----
Maxim726X said:
If an entire NFL team sits out the national anthem, they'll be sure to talk about that for more than 10 minutes.
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Joeytj said:
It'll be a bit more than that, especially because both candidates pledged to halt campaigning for the day and are attending memorials.

Of course, that won't stop everybody else from talking about the campaigns.
Click to expand...

Perhaps on both cases, but the election will be the focus.
 
B

Bowdz

Member
Aaron Strife said:
Lol Paul Ryan trying to shame Clinton?

Sit down little boy, the grownups are talking.
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Remember that time when Paul Ryan said 60% of the country were takers, not makers? Remember when Paul Ryan stood by his fellow running mate for calling out half the country? Remember when Paul Ryan supported a nominee who made "text book" racist remarks and "in American" comments?

Fuck off Paul Ryan you cowardly sack of shit.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
I get the feeling with Clinton as president and a GOP House, Ryan is going to get played so easily and regularly. He doesn't really have any political moxie.
 
K

kirblar

Member
Dierce said:
Hopefully we will see some positive polls soon. I'm afraid that we are stuck in this echo chamber and aren't realizing how bad things are really getting. I just can't fucking believe orange turd still has a chance. This reality has got to be some sick fucking joke. The media isn't even touching turds comment about shooting Iranian ships who appear hostile after repeatedly accusing Clinton of being trigger happy. Blatant miscalculation by Clinton's campaign to back down.
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We've been seeing positive polls. Things tightening is fine, the demos are still godawful.
 
B

Boke1879

Member
Aaron Strife said:
I get the feeling with Clinton as president and a GOP House, Ryan is going to get played so easily and regularly. He doesn't really have any political moxie.
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The thing is. I don't think she'd be all that hard on him. She'll talk sternly of course when giving addresses. But I feel when it comes down to actual policy and getting shit done. She'd have no problem letting him have "credit" in a particular bill getting passed if it meant her policies gets pushed forward.
 
B

Bam Bam Baklava

Member
Dierce said:
Hopefully we will see some positive polls soon. I'm afraid that we are stuck in this echo chamber and aren't realizing how bad things are really getting. I just can't fucking believe orange turd still has a chance. This reality has got to be some sick fucking joke. The media isn't even touching turds comment about shooting Iranian ships who appear hostile after repeatedly accusing Clinton of being trigger happy. Blatant miscalculation by Clinton's campaign to back down.
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Is there some kind of "orange turd" quota you're trying to fill? I've used the term once or twice but this is getting kind of ridiculous.
 
U

User 463088

Banned
I mean, like, I think I'm going to need people to quantify "positive polls" for me a bit.

Does that mean national polls where she's leading? We got those.
Does that mean state polls showing her +5% in states that equal at least 270? We got those too.

If our definition of positive polls is going to be +8% or +10%...then we're not getting those.
 
D

Dubbedinenglish

Banned
After sitting on I have to say I'm disappointed in her follow up. When the statement came out I had to check myself to see if this was something that moved me or was I reflexively cheerleading an anti Trump attack. Thing is that actually moved me. As much as I can joke about Trump actually scares me, moreover the platform he's given to the racists who should be living in the fringe.

I thought the attack was great because it forced that uncomfortable question on them, the Trump supporters. She said it very clearly and it could be easily backed and again it puts the Trump supporter in that uncomfortable place of self doubt. Kaine came out and it sound like this was going to a full throated attack that purs the focus on the uncomfortable question of self doubt. Then Hillary's staff puts out a wink and nod and regret on the half. Now the discussion is muddied and no longer puts the stark focus on Trump supporters. That's why the worm Ryan can talk and Trump's people have a cover to deflect.

After the low-key August I was hoping this was the start of a big offensive and would get to attack Trump head on and put him on the defensive. Now though it seems like the door is shut on an aggressive tone, at least in the immediate.
 
E

Emarv

Member
Aaron Strife said:
I get the feeling with Clinton as president and a GOP House, Ryan is going to get played so easily and regularly. He doesn't really have any political moxie.
Click to expand...

The Clinton-Ryan relationship is gonna be fascinating. He'll obviously be trying to govern but also set himself up for 2020/2024. He'll still be fighting his own caucus and the new Alt-Right. He thinks he's stronger than Boehner was, but in the end will probably look weaker.

I can't wait for their battles.
 
Z

Zukkoyaki

Member
Yeah, even on Tuesday when we got the infamous CNN poll, four other national polls came out that went C+2, C+3, C+3 and C+4. Wednesday had two C+2 polls. Thursday had a +4 from Rasmussen of all pollsters. And that's literally every none daily poll from this week.

In the state polls department we've gotten two PA ones that were C+8 and C+5. Two NC ones that were C+4 and C+4. Sure there were the Q polls that had a tie in Florida and a T+4 in OH, but those will happen here and there. Q has been fairly Trump friendly as well (not to dismiss them because they're a pretty stellar pollster, just pointing it out).
 
U

User 463088

Banned
Zukkoyaki said:
Yeah, even on Tuesday when we got the infamous CNN poll, four other national polls came out that went C+2, C+3, C+3 and C+4. Wednesday had two C+2 polls. Thursday had a +4 from Rasmussen of all pollsters.


In the state polls department we've gotten two PA ones that were C+8 and C+5. Two NC ones that were C+4 and C+4. Sure there were the Q polls that had a tie in Florida and a T+4 in OH, but those will happen here and there. Q has been fairly Trump friendly as well (not to dismiss them because they're a pretty stellar pollster, just pointing it out).
Click to expand...

There have only been 3 polls of Ohio that have had Trump ahead ever. All 3 were Quinn.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/oh/ohio_trump_vs_clinton-5634.html#polls
 
K

kirblar

Member
adam387 said:
I mean, like, I think I'm going to need people to quantify "positive polls" for me a bit.

Does that mean national polls where she's leading? We got those.
Does that mean state polls showing her +5% in states that equal at least 270? We got those too.

If our definition of positive polls is going to be +8% or +10%...then we're not getting those.
Click to expand...
It has to be repeated: Momentum in polling is not a thing. It does not exist. Movement does occur, but it does not work like the laws of physics.
 
M

mo60

Member
Dubbedinenglish said:
After sitting on I have to say I'm disappointed in her follow up. When the statement came out I had to check myself to see if this was something that moved me or was I reflexively cheerleading an anti Trump attack. Thing is that actually moved me. As much as I can joke about Trump actually scares me, moreover the platform he's given to the racists who should be living in the fringe.

I thought the attack was great because it forced that uncomfortable question on them, the Trump supporters. She said it very clearly and it could be easily backed and again it puts the Trump supporter in that uncomfortable place of self doubt. Kaine came out and it sound like this was going to a full throated attack that purs the focus on the uncomfortable question of self doubt. Then Hillary's staff puts out a wink and nod and regret on the half. Now the discussion is muddied and no longer puts the stark focus on Trump supporters. That's why the worm Ryan can talk and Trump's people have a cover to deflect.

After the low-key August I was hoping this was the start of a big offensive and would get to attack Trump head on and put him on the defensive. Now though it seems like the door is shut on an aggressive tone, at least in the immediate.
Click to expand...

She will probably bring up something about the basket of deplorables statement in the debates and she will most likely continue to associate trump with the type of people that support him.
 
P

pigeon

Banned
I was Diablosing about the polls earlier today but then I went to 538 and remembered that Clinton is both trending slightly upward and at 70% to win.

Be cool.
 
Z

Zukkoyaki

Member
pigeon said:
I was Diablosing about the polls earlier today but then I went to 538 and remembered that Clinton is both trending slightly upward and at 70% to win.

Be cool.
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538 is almost guaranteed to shift toward Trump a little bit tomorrow due to the nature of their model. The last ABC poll had Clinton +8 so even if it's something like +5 or +6 their model will interpret that as momentum toward Trump and shift a bit in his direction.
 
O

Oblivion

Fetishing muscular manly men in skintight hosery
Hillary's handling this thing just fine. I'm quite pleased.

And she's certainly on better territory than fucking EMAILS.
 
G

gaugebozo

Member
kirblar said:
It has to be repeated: Momentum in polling is not a thing. It does not exist. Movement does occur, but it does not work like the laws of physics.
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Does anybody here have any experience with stochastic modeling? I just realized you could maybe prove this for certain systems but have little experience with it.
 
P

pigeon

Banned
Y2Kev said:
do you think Ted Cruz diablosed after the NY primary?
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Honestly, I think Ted Cruz diablosed the instant he realized Trump was serious and was going to stomp all over his "most crazy asshole in the race" niche.

If Obama's speechwriters hadn't come up with that long joke about the Apprentice for the Corrrspondent's Dinner, Ted Cruz is the nominee right now.
 
C

Chezzymann

Member
Would trump winning instantly tank the economy? Hes so unpopular overseas among foreign leaders and unstable when it comes to policy so I could imagine the stock market crashing like mark Cuban said
 
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