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PoliGAF 2016 |OT10| Jill Stein Inflatable Love Doll

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mo60

Member
I'll take those ABC poll numbers any day of the week, but those African American numbers are making me Diablos! He's doubling his support each month, by November he will get 12% of the vote!

I don't expect trump to to get more than 5% of AA's supporting him at this point. He may do worse than McCain did in 08 with AA's at this point.
 
ABC/Wapo is good, but I'm going to be just a little suspicious of the results.


Time to Diablosing (Senate)
NBC/WSJ/Marist

Nevada
Trump +1 42/41/8/3
Clinton +1 45/44 H2H
Heck +2 LV, Masto +1 RV
https://www.scribd.com/document/323...Nevada-Annotated-Questionnaire-September-2016

Arizona
Trump +2 42/40/12/2
Trump +1 42/41 H2H
McCain +19 with RV and LV
https://www.scribd.com/document/323...rizona-Annotated-Questionnaire-September-2016

Georgia
Trump +2 44/42/10
Trump +3 46/43 H2H
https://www.scribd.com/document/323...eorgia-Annotated-Questionnaire-September-2016

New Hampshire
Clinton +2 39/37/15/3
Clinton +1 42/41 H2H
Ayotte +8 with LV, +7 with RV
https://www.scribd.com/document/323...pshire-Annotated-Questionnaire-September-2016

http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/201...-deadlocked-battleground-states-polls-n646216
 
Jesus, the cast of BoJack HorseMan is pretty fucking amazing. Will Arnett from Arrested Development, Aaron Paul from Breaking Bad, Alison Brie from Community, and Kristen Schaal from Bob's Burgers (four of my favorite shows). If I had known about the cast sooner, I wouldn't have waited nearly as long to watch this.
 

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
Yeah disappointing but Ayotte + 8 would be a huge outlier. I have not seen her up in any recent polling.
 
I know we don't like the LA/USC tracker, but HRC has gained consistently over the past 7 days. It could be the sign of a trend (but I really hate to look at this poll at all). If it is it might show up this week.

Hillary Clinton 42.7 43.6 44.1 44.5 44.5 44.8 45.0
Donald Drumpf 44.7 44.3 43.8 43.4 44.3 43.8 43.6

Thanks to Reddit for the nice list.

Personally I don't like taking hopium from this poll anymore. It has awful side effects.
 
The only thing about those polls that makes me go "Huh" is New Hampshire, especially with those Senate numbers. Interestingly, there's only been one other poll that has had Trump that close all cycle long: another Marist poll from January.
 

Veelk

Banned
I asked this earlier but didn't get an answer. Unless I'm missing something, Hillary is still beating Trump, but not as much as before. This gap shortened even before this basket nonsense.

What gives? Why is trump getting support all of a sudden?
 

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
Every race tightens. Convention bounces fade. Hillary was not very visible in August so response rates dropped from dem leaners.
 

Diablos

Member
Nice poll but the gap between RV and LV is cause for concern. It suggests Hillary could have a turnout problem. I worry that Johnson thee Frog could also siphon away some votes from her which makes for a damaging combination.

Also Obama's approval seems quite high. Seems like they may be polling a group that is slightly more biased towards Dems in general?

wtf @ NH. Please be an outlier. What is the most recent poll from there besides this one?

I know things were supposed to tighten up but I still can't believe that Trump is not at least 5 points behind Hillary at all times.

Can someone explain to me why they think Johnson will actually have less support than polls indicate? Given the unpopularity of both Clinton and Trump isn't it harder to say that?

Also what if a lot of these Johnson supporters are just embarrassed to say they're voting for Trump? There are just too many variables. This election is a headache.

Clinton kind of going into hiding plus the negative headlines really hurt her last month. On a smaller scale the headlines are a thorn in her side that won't go away -- like Carter with the hostages, every time you turn on the news there's always "new" info about the emails or Clinton Foundation etc. it just won't go away. Or when you think it does the media jumps right back on it.
 
Nice poll but the gap between RV and LV is cause for concern. It suggests Hillary could have a turnout problem. I worry that Johnson thee Frog could also siphon away some votes from her which makes for a damaging combination.

Also Obama's approval seems quite high. Seems like they may be polling a group that is slightly more biased towards Dems in general?

wtf @ NH. Please be an outlier. What is the most recent poll from there besides this one?

I know things were supposed to tighten up but I still can't believe that Trump is not at least 5 points behind Hillary at all times.

Can someone explain to me why they think Johnson will actually have less support than polls indicate? Given the unpopularity of both Clinton and Trump isn't it harder to say that?

Also what if a lot of these Johnson supporters are just embarrassed to say they're voting for Trump? There are just too many variables. This election is a headache.

Clinton kind of going into hiding plus the negative headlines really hurt her last month. On a smaller scale the headlines are a thorn in her side that won't go away -- like Carter with the hostages, every time you turn on the news there's always "new" info about the emails or Clinton Foundation etc. it just won't go away. Or when you think it does the media jumps right back on it.

Breathe.

The most recent polls in NH were:

H+13
H+14
H+6
H+6
H+5
H+6
H+9
 

Farmboy

Member
GA/AZ doesn't matter though if we don't have solid leads in NV/NH. It would be a waste of resources to concentrate anything there.

You mean on the presidential level or senate/coat tails-wise? Presidential, she'll probably win NH and NV both in the end. But I agree that in terms of the senate/coat tails NH and NV are way better investments than GA and AZ.
 
Kinda surprised folks aren't surprised about McCain +19.

That's a disaster for Kirkpatrick.

I think there was another poll recently that had him up by quite a bit. I think those numbers are less in your face because, well, it's McCain and it's Arizona. There haven't been a bunch (if any) polls with Kirkpatrick leading. The Ayotte one is completely out of left field.
 
I know we don't like the LA/USC tracker, but HRC has gained consistently over the past 7 days. It could be the sign of a trend (but I really hate to look at this poll at all). If it is it might show up this week.

Hillary Clinton 42.7 43.6 44.1 44.5 44.5 44.8 45.0
Donald Drumpf 44.7 44.3 43.8 43.4 44.3 43.8 43.6

Thanks to Reddit for the nice list.

Personally I don't like taking hopium from this poll anymore. It has awful side effects.

Yea, this is a pretty decent thing to get from these polls. The actual raw numbers are rubbish, but it can be used to show a trend.

Seems polls the last few days have shown that Hillary is bouncing back, so I guess last week's polls were just a fluke or a minor adjustment due to the dumb AP story that's faded.
 
Donald J. Trump ‏@realDonaldTrump 12h12 hours ago
The seriously failing @nytimes, despite so much winning and poll numbers that will soon put me in first place, only writes dishonest hits!

SO MUCH WINNING
 

Farmboy

Member
I think there was another poll recently that had him up by quite a bit. I think those numbers are less in your face because, well, it's McCain and it's Arizona. There haven't been a bunch (if any) polls with Kirkpatrick leading. The Ayotte one is completely out of left field.

Yeah, I think most people expect McCain to win. That said, +19 is terrible. But it's an outlier for now.
 
I think there was another poll recently that had him up by quite a bit. I think those numbers are less in your face because, well, it's McCain and it's Arizona. There haven't been a bunch (if any) polls with Kirkpatrick leading. The Ayotte one is completely out of left field.

Yeah the CNN had him up +13, but then PPP had them tied.

All over the place.
 

Diablos

Member
Dems should just give up on AZ altogether. Probably GA too. Pour the money back into crucial swing states where the polls have tightened.
 
Re: NH Senate race: Hassan is a pretty bad candidate. The one time she came up in the Democratic Gubernatorial primary debate, it was about her proposal for a Syrian refugee freeze, which Van Ostern, Marchand, and Connolly all disagreed with. In contrast, when Hillary came up in the debate, all 3 showed strong support for her. Lynch and Shaheen were much better Democratic governors of NH. They actually got stuff done, unlike Hassan, whose major first-term policy proposal of building casinos (so the state could make money from gambling) failed pretty badly.
 
This Clinton CNN interview is really good. They found a good way to counter Trump's "stronger leader than Hillary" argument by saying all the stuff he says is phony strength
 

Diablos

Member
This Clinton CNN interview is really good. They found a good way to counter Trump's "stronger leader than Hillary" argument by saying all the stuff he says is phony strength
But of course they had to remind us it was before SOME CONTROVERSY regarding the Deplorables comment. She's doing good tho
 

thebloo

Member
Dems should just give up on AZ altogether. Probably GA too. Pour the money back into crucial swing states where the polls have tightened.

You can't be running around like a headless chicken ever time the polls shift a bit. It leads to wasted money/time and frustration on the ground. Trust that the campaign is on top of this and their ground game is good.
 
MSNBC is replaying their coverage from the morning of 9/11. Which...is odd. I think? Do they always do this?

They do yeah. I avoid it like the plague.

I won't ever forget what happened today. I don't need to relive it.

That said, everyone should try to make it to the museum in NYC at least once in their life. It's hard and harrowing, but it's important.
 

Grief.exe

Member
Donald J. Trump ‏@realDonaldTrump 12h12 hours ago
The seriously failing @nytimes, despite so much winning and poll numbers that will soon put me in first place, only writes dishonest hits!

SO MUCH WINNING

It's ironic that liberals are complaining about the NYT as well for not covering the race accurately.
 

Doc Holliday

SPOILER: Columbus finds America
No wonder Barrack is so chill, he comes home to Michelle every night. Have you guys seen that Essence photo? My god :eek:


_91096764_butts.jpg
 

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
I don't know how people can watch this footage again.

It's ironic that liberals are complaining about the NYT as well for not covering the race accurately.

I've learned that liberals, particularly liberals that are actually winning, complain about everything.
 
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