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[kess]

David Dope

Hah, bring on the attention.

Holy shit, just noticed he put Hogan there. *Forgot hulkamnia was revealed as a racist (on that leaked tape) last year.

I know. Hulkamnia was a lie.

But he killed gawker u know rite

 

[Box of Kittens]

ABC/WaPo

LV CIinton +5
RV Clinton +10

(Josh Barro just retweeted this)
https://twitter.com/williamjordann/status/774815121185136640

I'll take it.

 

[NeoXChaos]

Taniel ‏@Taniel 12m12 minutes ago
Trump's "outreach" to African-Americans leads to a dramatic jump among black respondents in WaPo/ABC poll: 2% in August to 3% now.

Taniel ‏@Taniel 17m17 minutes ago
ABC/WaPo: Clinton leads 51-43 in 2-way, 46-41-9-2 in 4-way.

She has 94% of Sanders supporters in former configuration, and 77% in latter.

.....................................................................................

 

[Box of Kittens]

.....................................................................................

50% increase in African-American support for Trump over Crooked Hillary!

 

[RustyNails]

And this was before Aleppogate. Ugh Johnson go away.

 

[eBay Huckster]

.....................................................................................

gonna go ahead and say that the election's gonna wind up being closer to the 2-ways than the 4-ways in these polls

Spoiler

stein's gonna fade to near zero and johnson's gonna be losing a percent or five

 

[Paskil]

Clinton is toast. Those shifts in black voters surely means she's done. I bet she doesn't even win Maryland and North Carolina.

 

[Zukkoyaki]

And this was before Aleppogate. Ugh Johnson go away.

The second Democrats and/or Republicans widely embrace legalizing marijuana, the Libertarian party is toast. Pretty much everyone I know who claims to have libertarian ideals values that more than anything.

 

[User1608]

But he killed gawker u know rite

To be fair, what Gawker did was scummy, but Hogan is a racist piece of crap. That was a mess.

I'll take it.

Same here.

My hope is the debates further solidifies or even improves Hillary's lead in the polls.

 

[Dubbedinenglish]

.....................................................................................

Busted

 

[TestOfTide]

The claim that someone is "deplorable" is not something that can be fact-checked, because it's a matter of opinion, not fact. Pretending to defend the claim on an objective basis is nothing short of partisan hackery, despite BM's insistence that that would be "proper" journalism.

Anyone that still thinks Obama wasn't born in the US is objectively a deplorable piece of shit.

 

[royalan]

Seems like an odd statement. Isn't this literally the difference between RV and LV, meaning the +5 LV number already factors this in?

I'm willing to bet money that lagging interest is something the campaign has picked up on, and likely is what fueled her Basket of Deplorables statement.

 

[hipsterpants]

The second Democrats and/or Republicans widely embrace legalizing marijuana, the Libertarian party is toast. Pretty much everyone I know who claims to have libertarian ideals values that more than anything.

hey, I saw my first ever actual libertarian in one of my classes a few weeks ago. he even has a libertarian party shirt and everything!

Spoiler

I go to a public university

 

[Spoiled Milk]

.....................................................................................

WE'RE TAKIN THE HOUSE

 

[Aaron Strife]

Busted

But I thought we were all going to write in Bernie's name.

 

[User 85168]

.....................................................................................

NO TPP

 

[Holmes]

gonna go ahead and say that the election's gonna wind up being closer to the 2-ways than the 4-ways in these polls

Spoiler

stein's gonna fade to near zero and johnson's gonna be losing a percent or five

I think you're right but I think the real result will be somewhere between the H2H and 4 way numbers. The margin will probably be closer to the H2H margins in the polls but still somewhere in between. I'm assuming most Sanders supporters saying they'll vote Clinton in the H2H but not for her in the 4-way will ultimately vote for her, but not all of them will.

 

[Bowdz]

ABC/WaPo

LV CIinton +5
RV Clinton +10

(Josh Barro just retweeted this)
https://twitter.com/williamjordann/status/774815121185136640

I want to go to bed, BUT THIS ERECTION WON'T GO AWAY.

 

[NeoXChaos]

Jay Cost ‏@JayCostTWS 14m14 minutes ago
But the Pepe stuff and all the other memes. I was inclined to dismiss it at first, but egads THEY KEEP DOING IT. And now Bannon.

His tweets are funny

 

[B-Dubs]

I think you're right but I think the real result will be somewhere between the H2H and 4 way numbers. The margin will probably be closer to the H2H margins in the polls but still somewhere in between. I'm assuming most Sanders supporters saying they'll vote Clinton in the H2H but not for her in the 4-way will ultimately vote for her, but not all of them will.

I have a feeling the 4-way numbers will start looking more like the H2H numbers once we get the debates and people see that there really are only two choices.

 

[Holmes]

I have a feeling the 4-way numbers will start looking more like the H2H numbers once we get the debates and people see that there really are only two choices.

Maybe. Or maybe not. I think my husband would be a good case study. He's voting for Clinton (rather, he's letting me fill in the bubble for her on his ballot) but he's not too hot on her. If he got surveyed he would probably say he's undecided or for Johnson in the 4-way (not Jill - he really doesn't like her). I assume there are more like him. They'll vote for her in the voting booth...but what's annoying for the Clinton campaign is that they probably can't count on these voters in the early vote period.

 

[Box of Kittens]

To be fair, what Gawker did was scummy, but Hogan is a racist piece of crap. That was a mess.

There are so many controversies involving Gawker where I look at what happened and the only thought I can have is "well, there are no good guys in this one."

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

Assuming Hillary Clinton gets elected president, she'll rank as the second least president ever.

41. Benjamin Harrison
41. Martin Van Buren
43. Hillary Clinton
44. James Madison

(Height rankings)

 

[Holmes]

"Second least president ever" sounds a little strange.

 

[Iolo]

Somebody gotta go back in time and tell Madison all the things that we have in 2016, and that he's still the shortest prez ever

 

[Holmes]

I'm fucking gagged, Trump's cronies and supporters are trying to take back the word "deplorable". By all means.

 

[Emarv]

Don't know if I missed the conversation on it, but I enjoyed Nate Silver debating his model versus Princeton and others on his latest podcast. Would love to hear Silver and Wang debate for like an hour someday.

As a (somewhat) statistician, I really enjoy the debate the community is having over this stuff. It's cool watching a field literally figure it out together.

 

[excelsiorlef]

Irredeemable isn't a word to be thrown around so easily.

I really don't care. I'm not playing this forgive them for they know not what they do shit.

 

[royalan]

I can't tell if Trump's supporters taking back the word Deplorable is them unintentionally proving Hillary's point, or just not caring and being that damn bold with their racism.

 

[whyamihere]

God. Those ABC numbers are SAVAGE

 

[Iolo]

Sounds like Nate and co have some methodological problems with the weighting in the ABC poll. Not to be a downer or anything.

 

[8 X 11 Printer Paper]

I'll take those ABC poll numbers any day of the week, but those African American numbers are making me Diablos! He's doubling his support each month, by November he will get 12% of the vote!

 

[Iolo]

I wonder when the polls that will be used to gate access to the first debate come out. It must be soon, so perhaps the ABC poll counts.

 

[Owzers]

the trump surrogate narrative lately has been about how terrible this month has been for Hillary and her campaign is desperate and failing. Then this poll...

 

[Emarv]

the trump surrogate narrative lately has been about how terrible this month has been for Hillary and her campaign is desperate and failing. Then this poll...

They'll just ignore it until a better one comes out for them.

 

[User 463088]

Donald J. Trump Jr. re-posted this on Instagram.

Also, that poll has some great things in it. It reinforces, again, that Trump has a very narrow gap between his floor and ceiling. We've seen essentially zero movement towards him whatsoever in this poll. That's pretty damn good!

 

[RustyNails]

the trump surrogate narrative lately has been about how terrible this month has been for Hillary and her campaign is desperate and failing. Then this poll...

It's a good poll, but again we have to take polls in bunches. This one has Obama approval at 58% when the aggregates have it around 54%. Not saying it's an outlier, but let's wait for a couple more respected polls to come out.

 

[Zukkoyaki]

Sounds like Nate and co have some methodological problems with the weighting in the ABC poll. Not to be a downer or anything.

Eh, I'm not really seeing any of that. At worst (if you can even call it that) I've seen Nate Cohn point at the surprisingly big gap between RV and LV and that they included a little bit of weighing by party (which they have no proof makes a difference, he talked this out a bit with Henry Enten), and Nate Silver note that recent polls seemed to show that the race has stabilized to show a smallish but clear Clinton lead.

Also that CNN poll on Tuesday pretty much proved that you can nitpick something in literally every poll you find. That's why it's pretty to just let things be unless it's an obvious outlier and average things out or adjust for discrepencies. Silver talks about this a lot.

 

[whyamihere]

There's no way to spin those numbers from ABC good for Trump.

SA. 👏 VAGE. 👏

 

[shinra-bansho]

Good Nate or the crap one?

 

[User 463088]

Good Nate or the crap one?

Good.

 

[PantherLotus]

The second Democrats and/or Republicans widely embrace legalizing marijuana, the Libertarian party is toast. Pretty much everyone I know who claims to have libertarian ideals values that more than anything.

Ehhhh. It's really just the home of I-got-mine Republicans who are rightly afraid of the label. They care as much about weed as they do their fellow citizens. It's all about thinking they don't owe shit to anyone dressed up in a pseudo-intellectual sham of logic. Libertarians are where the real cretins of the right go -- they know what they believe is disgusting but they don't want to be called out on it.

 

[johnsmith]

Hey, r/politics is now pro-Clinton/anti-Trump. That's nice. I guess that's what happens when you have 94% of Sanders supporters coming home.

 

[BlastProcessing]

@SopanDeb 3h3 hours ago
Michael Morell and Mike Vickers pen an open letter to Trump:
http://wapo.st/2cuQpzH

 

[Spiritreaver]

Hey, r/politics is now pro-Clinton/anti-Drumpf. That's nice. I guess that's what happens when you have 94% of Sanders supporters coming home.

I dunno that "Why Sanders supporters cannot back Gary Johnson" thread is full of busters, lol.

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

I'm 70% certain that Hillary would take all of the liberal Gary Johnson supporters (and that makes up 3% of all voters right now) if she would just push for legalizing marijuana.

Anyway, this 120 line code I wrote today for a math simulation is the shittiest looking shit I've ever seen, but it works and I barely understand programming so this counts as a win for me.

 

[Phased]

Hey, r/politics is now pro-Clinton/anti-Trump. That's nice. I guess that's what happens when you have 94% of Sanders supporters coming home.

They made the switch a month or two ago once Sanders officially bowed out the Sanders For President sub shut down.

 

[RastaMentality]

I'm 70% certain that Hillary would take all of the liberal Gary Johnson supporters (and that makes up 3% of all voters right now) if she would just push for legalizing marijuana.

Anyway, this 120 line code I wrote today for a math simulation is the shittiest looking shit I've ever seen, but it works and I barely understand programming so this counts as a win for me.

I think was definitely the year for her to do it but I guess they really thought it'd hurt her with suburban white voters maybe?

 

[sazzy]

Just a heads up:

CNN is airing an interview with Clinton at 9am ET and a repeat at noon.

 

[kess]

Every time I hop over to our UK equivalent, I'm impressed how fucked up things are in comparison to the fairly steady hand of the Obama Administration.