So I've been out of the loop on the election the past few weeks aside from what I hear on NPR while driving. I've been busy with the start of my last semester, and I've been feeling more depressed than usual lately, so I just haven't been as interested.
But I see the polls have tightened a lot since I was last keeping track and now the pneumonia thing...Should I start worrying at all, or is November still looking pretty good? I'm guessing the long shot odds of taking the House are gone, but is the Senate still within reach?
Senate is still ok.
Basically Dems need to win 4 seats to tie, 5 for an outright majority. Right now WI and IL look like givens, IN possibly as well (there's been some troubling public polling recently but Democrats have released several internal polls showing Bayh up by double digits). In NH and PA, the Democrats (Hassan and McGinty) have led most public polling.
The DSCC has just announced they're investing in NC and MO, which have polled somewhat close (Ross, the Democrat has even led in some NC polling). Rubio jumping back into FL seems to have hurt the Democrats' chances there rather significantly. Democrats are just writing off OH because our nominee there is performing so poorly. The only competitive seat Dems are defending is NV.
So the Senate picture is overall not really a sure thing but pretty promising.
House looking like a gain of 10-15 seats for Democrats. 20 tops. Unless there's a wave it's not happening. But congressional races tend to break later as people generally don't pay attention to them until mid-October.
