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PoliGAF 2016 |OT10| Jill Stein Inflatable Love Doll

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Gaming side, of course.

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Dan

No longer boycotting the Wolfenstein franchise
The interview/segment with Marco Gutierrez on Full Frontal was damned amazing. That long pregnant pause when he was asked if he ever wondered if Trump's campaign was a scam.
 
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Its not like a VP candidate refused to call the leader of the KKK deplorable or that there was violence at a trump rally or that he continues to lie
 

Iolo

Member
Both the Times and the Post went with the summary that her campaign had been "set back" or "damaged" by the health stuff. Which may very well be true, but there's no way to objectively measure that without opinion polling; it's pure punditry. In a weird way it reminds me of the "this will be the gaffe that destroys Trump" proclamations of the primary season.
 

NeoXChaos

Member
https://twitter.com/NumbersMuncher/status/775524389605535744

Worth a read.

Josh Jordan
‏@NumbersMuncher
One HUGE lesson from 2012 is that enthusiasm is great, but any candidate can overcome that with money and a vast get out the vote operation.

Josh Jordan ‏@NumbersMuncher 1h1 hour ago
Hillary is going to have weeks of early voting to use those offices to get people to the polls that might not otherwise vote. A huge deal.

Josh Jordan ‏@NumbersMuncher 1h1 hour ago
And while Hillary is padding her lead with early voters Trump will pouring the little money he has doing rallies in stadiums. Unforgivable.
Josh Jordan ‏@NumbersMuncher 1h1 hour ago
Campaigns have become incredibly sophisticated in targeting unreliable voters during early voting. Trump won't even have ability to do it.

--
Josh Jordan ‏@NumbersMuncher 1h1 hour ago
And if you don't think Hillary leading Trump in battleground field offices 291-88 is a big deal, you're in for a huge shock in November.
Josh Jordan ‏@NumbersMuncher 1h1 hour ago
Last note: If Trump is down by 3-4 points nationally among likely voters and Hillary has 3x the field offices, how does Trump possibly win?

Theres more but I pulled the best ones.
 
People are underscoring the possible benefits of Pneumonia gate tho. Donald getting murked by a sickly old woman on national tv will look even more awful for him than it would have before and she's gonna actually be an under dog in the debates for the first time this cycle.
 

Iolo

Member
So I guess the first debate will now be about health rather than emails, the second now about emails, and the third... Benghazi?
 

mo60

Member
That 32% in CA for Trump is probably close to his ceiling. Hillary is likely to crack 65+ and Trump mid to low 30's

It's possible trump does not break 30% at all in Cali.Also, if I recall the person who got the highest share of the vote ever in California was FDR. I think hilary can beat FDR's vote share in Cali if she is lucky.
 
I still feel like the media and the general public aren't in sync with this pneumonia thing. Only those inside the beltway and various insiders are the ones freaking out over it in one way or the other, it seems.

The Clinton Rule is on full display the past few days, it's disgusting.
 
Ha you can tell when Clinton just lost when Cooper asked her doesn't this incident prove she's not honest and trustworthy.

She better have a God as press secretary lined up.
 
It's possible trump does not break 30% at all in Cali.Also, if I recall the person who got the highest share of the vote ever in California was FDR. I think hilary can beat FDR's vote share in Cali if she is lucky.

FDR got nearly 67% of the vote in California in 1936 and carried every county. This was indeed the largest vote share any presidential candidate has received in California, though on a few occasions other candidates have come close.

The infamous Literary Digest poll predicted that Alf Landon would carry the state with 54% of the two-party vote. Guess it needed some unskewing. Gallup got the winner right in California, but still underestimated FDR's vote share.
 

Paskil

Member
You're all pretty dumb. Hillary's carriers can only do so much with a dead body. Once the first debate arrives, Hillary is finished. Weekend at Bernie's taught us that you can fool a cursory check, but corpses can't answer questions. Checkmate, liberals.
 
senaterankings9132016_zpsor9w4p2y.png


Italics denote pickups.

Safe Republican (12)

Alabama - Richard Shelby (R) vs. Ron Crumpton (D)

Alaska - Lisa Murkowski (R) vs. Rey Metcalfe (D)

Arkansas - John Boozman (R) vs. Conner Eldridge (D)

Georgia - Johnny Isakson (R) vs. Jim Barksdale (D)

Idaho - Mike Crapo (R) vs. Jerry Sturgill (D)

Kansas - Jerry Moran (R) vs. Patrick Wiesner (D)

Kentucky - Rand Paul (R) vs. Jim Gray (D)

North Dakota - John Hoeven (R) vs. Eliot Glassheim (D)

Oklahoma - James Lankford (R) vs. Mike Workman (D)

South Carolina - Tim Scott (R) vs. Thomas Dixon (D)

South Dakota - John Thune (R) vs. Jay Williams (D)

Utah - Mike Lee (R) vs. Misty Snow (D)



Likely Republican (3)

Iowa - Chuck Grassley (R) vs. Patty Judge (D)

Louisiana - ???

Ohio - Rob Portman (R) vs. Ted Strickland (D)



Lean Republican (2)

Arizona - John McCain (R) vs. Ann Kirkpatrick (D)

Missouri - Roy Blunt (R) vs. Jason Kander (D)



Tossup (5)

Florida - Marco Rubio (R) vs. Patrick Murphy (D)

Nevada - Catherine Cortez Masto (D) vs. Joe Heck (R)

New Hampshire - Kelly Ayotte (R) vs. Maggie Hassan (D)

North Carolina - Richard Burr (R) vs. Deborah Ross (D)

Pennsylvania - Pat Toomey (R) vs. Katie McGinty (D)



Lean Democratic (1)

Indiana - Evan Bayh (D) vs. Todd Young (R)



Likely Democratic (2)

Illinois - Mark Kirk (R) vs. Tammy Duckworth (D)

Wisconsin - Ron Johnson (R) vs. Russ Feingold (D)




Safe Democratic (9)

California - Kamala Harris (D) vs. Loretta Sanchez (D) *Likely Harris*

Colorado - Michael Bennet (D) vs. Darryl Glenn (R)

Connecticut - Richard Blumenthal (D) vs. Dan Carter (R)

Hawaii - Brian Schatz (D) vs. John Carroll (R)

Maryland - Chris Van Hollen (D) vs. Kathy Szeliga (R)

New York - Chuck Schumer (D) vs. Wendy Long (R)

Oregon - Ron Wyden (D) vs. Mark Callahan (R)

Vermont - Patrick Leahy (D) vs. Scott Milne (R)

Washington - Patty Murray (D) vs. Chris Vance (R)
 
senaterankings9132016_zpsor9w4p2y.png


Italics denote pickups.

Safe Republican (12)

Alabama - Richard Shelby (R) vs. Ron Crumpton (D)

Alaska - Lisa Murkowski (R) vs. Rey Metcalfe (D)

Arkansas - John Boozman (R) vs. Conner Eldridge (D)

Georgia - Johnny Isakson (R) vs. Jim Barksdale (D)

Idaho - Mike Crapo (R) vs. Jerry Sturgill (D)

Kansas - Jerry Moran (R) vs. Patrick Wiesner (D)

Kentucky - Rand Paul (R) vs. Jim Gray (D)

North Dakota - John Hoeven (R) vs. Eliot Glassheim (D)

Oklahoma - James Lankford (R) vs. Mike Workman (D)

South Carolina - Tim Scott (R) vs. Thomas Dixon (D)

South Dakota - John Thune (R) vs. Jay Williams (D)

Utah - Mike Lee (R) vs. Misty Snow (D)

Likely Republican (3)

Iowa - Chuck Grassley (R) vs. Patty Judge (D)

Louisiana - ???

Ohio - Rob Portman (R) vs. Ted Strickland (D)

Lean Republican (2)

Arizona - John McCain (R) vs. Ann Kirkpatrick (D)

Missouri - Roy Blunt (R) vs. Jason Kander (D)

Tossup (5)

Florida - Marco Rubio (R) vs. Patrick Murphy (D)

Nevada - Catherine Cortez Masto (D) vs. Joe Heck (R)

New Hampshire - Kelly Ayotte (R) vs. Maggie Hassan (D)

North Carolina - Richard Burr (R) vs. Deborah Ross (D)

Pennsylvania - Pat Toomey (R) vs. Katie McGinty (D)

Lean Democratic (1)

Indiana - Evan Bayh (D) vs. Todd Young (R)

Likely Democratic (2)

Illinois - Mark Kirk (R) vs. Tammy Duckworth (D)

Wisconsin - Ron Johnson (R) vs. Russ Feingold (D)


Safe Democratic (9)

California - Kamala Harris (D) vs. Loretta Sanchez (D) *Likely Harris*

Colorado - Michael Bennet (D) vs. Darryl Glenn (R)

Connecticut - Richard Blumenthal (D) vs. Dan Carter (R)

Hawaii - Brian Schatz (D) vs. John Carroll (R)

Maryland - Chris Van Hollen (D) vs. Kathy Szeliga (R)

New York - Chuck Schumer (D) vs. Wendy Long (R)

Oregon - Ron Wyden (D) vs. Mark Callahan (R)

Vermont - Patrick Leahy (D) vs. Scott Milne (R)

Washington - Patty Murray (D) vs. Chris Vance (R)

This is perfect.
 
Compared to absolutely every other Hillary stumble/scandal/screwup of the campaign that I'm likely to panic about, I'm taking the Deplorables thing as almost a non-thing. This is not logical.

I realized it's Gamergate. I'm too used to the alt-right crap. I know the lingo, I know the memes, I know their typical tactics, fucking Pepe, I know their preferred language and attack methods. It's not at all new to me for these people to be flagged as all-around miserable human beings. No irony needed, no exaggerations, it's simply a factual statement to me.

The average voter has no freaking clue how awful that segment of the Trump base is. Like nooooooo clue. Hell, I'd say even the more casual poster or lurker here doesn't know how deep this goes. Even if you sat them down to explain it and showed them all the receipts, they'd never think there could be people that downright terrible floating around that are allowed to vote. The more it gets exposed, the more it'll click with people. One of the most predictable tendencies of the alt-right is for it make complete fools of themselves, and, lo and behold, they're already making a lovely effort of that. Even better, they're proud of themselves! The reaction on Reddit was proof--On Sunday the dominant discussion was Hillary's health and not the thing she said that, one would think, would infuriate them all.

So explaining this concept to my parents and some friends have them confused. They're all in a panic. The media lacks the perspective, too. People say her statement was too broad or a gaffe, but it was quite careful. Even the non-apology clarification was that she didn't mean half; She still entirely meant what she said at its core. Even if Hillary herself and the campaign don't understand it, they said the absolute perfect thing. It just needs a bit more time to play out. Even without her campaigning for a few days it's already started to turn around.
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
Compared to absolutely every other Hillary stumble/scandal/screwup of the campaign that I'm likely to panic about, I'm taking the Deplorables thing as almost a non-thing. This is not logical.

I realized it's Gamergate. I'm too used to the alt-right crap. I know the lingo, I know the memes, I know their typical tactics, fucking Pepe, I know their preferred language and attack methods. It's not at all new to me for these people to be flagged as all-around miserable human beings. No irony needed, no exaggerations, it's simply a factual statement to me.

The average voter has no freaking clue how awful that segment of the Trump base is. Like nooooooo clue. Hell, I'd say even the more casual poster or lurker here doesn't know how deep this goes. Even if you sat them down to explain it and showed them all the receipts, they'd never think there could be people that downright terrible floating around that are allowed to vote. The more it gets exposed, the more it'll click with people. One of the most predictable tendencies of the alt-right is for it make complete fools of themselves, and, lo and behold, they're already making a lovely effort of that. Even better, they're proud of themselves! The reaction on Reddit was proof--On Sunday the dominant discussion was Hillary's health and not the thing she said that, one would think, would infuriate them all.

So explaining this concept to my parents and some friends have them confused. They're all in a panic. The media lacks the perspective, too. People say her statement was too broad or a gaffe, but it was quite careful. Even the non-apology clarification was that she didn't mean half; She still entirely meant what she said at its core. Even if Hillary herself and the campaign don't understand it, they said the absolute perfect thing. It just needs a bit more time to play out. Even without her campaigning for a few days it's already started to turn around.

It's the cardinal sin of all campaigns: she told the truth, the real truth. Typically that's a bad thing to do, but this has been a atypical election so you may be right. Personally I hope you are.

I spoke to my mother yesterday and when I mentioned it she said, "no shit, but you don't say it." If that's going to be the general response it'll be fine.
 
It's the cardinal sin of all campaigns: she told the truth, the real truth. Typically that's a bad thing to do, but this has been a atypical election so you may be right. Personally I hope you are.

I spoke to my mother yesterday and when I mentioned it she said, "no shit, but you don't say it." If that's going to be the general response it'll be fine.

Pretty much.

Remember, what Romney said was wrong. Not bad wrong but factually wrong.

What Hillary said is roughly the truth. Some undecided voter isn't going to change their opinion. If anything, it brings more attention to them that some of Trump's supporters are gross people.

And it goes the same for her weaker supporters.

I'm not saying this is a positive. This is taking headlines away from Trump's Russia comments (seems like years ago now) but it's not the negative the Trumpers wish it was.
 

Piecake

Member
p your toe in Turkey’s public debate these days, and you will discover an ocean of conspiracy theorists. The media, a big chunk of which is devoted to supporting and praising President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, is full of heated discussions explaining Turkey’s every single trouble as a result of a heinous plot against the nation — plots by the United States, the CIA, the British crown, the “Zionists,” or the “interest rate lobby” — an alleged cabal that masters global capitalism.

These theories are diverse and colorful, and they purport to explain everything from terrorist attacks in Turkey to the Syrian civil war to economic stagnation. But they all fit into one dominant political narrative, which typically goes like this: Under Erdogan’s leadership, Turkey began to rise as a global power after a century of frailty. Since this New Turkey represents global justice for all the downtrodden, all the dark masters of the world are now alarmed by its glorious march. That is why they are using all their pawns against Turkey to defame, weaken, or destabilize it.

The Tin-Foil Hats Are Out in Turkey

The Turkey sure loves following the Bear apparently.
 

royalan

Member
I honestly think that, a while after Hillary wins the election (if she wins the election...lol), the "Basket of Deplorables" statement will be looked at as a pivotal moment of the campaign, and American politics in general.
 
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