But lets look at the reality of 2012. Republicans won not by spreading their vote thin but by packing all the Democrats into five districts where they won overwhelming victories: Robert Brady won the states 1st Congressional District with 85 percent of the vote, Chaka Fattah the 2nd with 89 percent, Mike Doyle the 14th with 77 percent. Allyson Schwartz (69 percent) and Matt Cartwright (61 percent) won comparative squeakers.
The only competitive Pennsylvania district in 2012 again, a year in which Barack Obama carried the state for a second time and Democratic House candidates earned more votes than Republicans was the 12th, which Republican Keith Rothfus won 52-48. The percentage-point margin of victory in the other 12 districts: 13, 25, 25, 14, 19, 13, 23, 31, 17, 13, 16, 26. One more time: Republicans generated these margins of victory in a state where they got fewer votes, statewide, than Democrats. The lines are stout, and the lines matter. There is a reason why Larry Sabatos renowned Crystal Ball Report rates only one of Pennsylvanias 18 seats as a toss-up this year, despite Hillary Clintons solid lead.
