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PoliGAF 2016 |OT10| Jill Stein Inflatable Love Doll

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O

Oblivion

Fetishing muscular manly men in skintight hosery
Nate does make a good point in that it would probably be better if media focused on a few of Trump scandals instead of spreading themselves thin on covering a thousand.
 
M

MassiveNights

Banned
WikiLeaks released new DNC e-mails

https://twitter.com/wikileaks/status/775812373269454848

Probably boring but who knows

Statement from DNC

CsQ32EEWIAAXsUg.jpg
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benjipwns

benjipwns

Banned
This is the first time the Libertarian Party (and thus, any third party) has made it on all 50 states' (+DC) ballots since 2000.

After the 2012 election they were only guaranteed 30 states' ballots for 2014.
 
B

Black Mamba

Member
New York Attorney General Eric Schneiderman has opened an investigation into the Donald J. Trump Foundation “to make sure it’s complying with the laws governing charities in New York," he said Tuesday.

A source familiar with the matter confirmed Schneiderman’s remark and said the New York Attorney General’s office “has opened an inquiry into the Trump Foundation based on troubling transactions that have recently come to light.”
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Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2016/...ry-into-trump-foundation-228125#ixzz4KB9LDfGk
 
J

Joeytj

Banned
Ipsos tracking went from Trump +2 on Saturday tu Clinton +1 today. So there's that. All polls today made Clinton stay about the same on the 538 forecast.
 
Z

Zukkoyaki

Member
Joeytj said:
Ipsos tracking went from Trump +2 on Saturday tu Clinton +1 today. So there's that. All polls today made Clinton stay about the same on the 538 forecast.
Click to expand...

When I first started following this race closer I was impartial to Ipsos. But the past month has made me raise a brow toward them.

On 9/5 it was Clinton-40, Trump-38
On 9/6 it was Clinton-41, Trump-34

A five point swing in a single day

On 9/8 it was Clinton-39, Trump-37
On 9/9 it was Trump-41, Clinton-36

A seven point swing in a single day

I feel like these daily online polls should be taken with a grain of salt even when Clinton is ahead.
 
benjipwns

benjipwns

Banned
NYCmetsfan said:
They have him winning ME 2 So he gets a electoral vote out of that. Still its 3 votes.
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Yes,https://www.bostonglobe.com/news/po...-race-maine/YNsB57jVpHmEJcJsFZRXMP/story.html
But the poll shows Trump’s dominance in the Second District — he leads Clinton by 10 points there — is boosting him statewide as well. In the 1st Congressional District, which includes Portland and points south, Clinton has an 18-point lead, showing just how politically divided the state is geographically.
Click to expand...
 
J

Joeytj

Banned
Zukkoyaki said:
When I first started following this race closer I was impartial to Ipsos. But the past month has made me raise a brow toward them.

On 9/5 it was Clinton-40, Trump-38
On 9/6 it was Clinton-41, Trump-34

A five point swing in a single day

On 9/8 it was Clinton-39, Trump-37
On 9/9 it was Trump-41, Clinton-36

A seven point swing in a single day

I feel like these daily online polls should be taken with a grain of salt even when Clinton is ahead.
Click to expand...

Yeah, and I noticed the Trump surge came before the weekend, so it's probably mostly noise.

But still, if this weekend's Hillary events had been game-changing moments, I think we would've seen something more dramatic by now.

Although, of course, tomorrow could be a horrible day in polling for HIll. Most polls would have fully factored in the weekend and Monday.
 
A

AntraxSuicide

Banned
Cybit said:
Hrm; I guess I wasn't sure that the GOP establishment had lost control of their party on the base level or they had just let Trump loose in hopes of taking out Cruz, and then Trump got away from them all. I think that's the part that folks don't quite see - that the failure of Jeb! is as much on the RNC / party elites as it is on Jeb. The reason Clinton only had one ornery old white dude as her challenger is (I'm assuming) that the Dem party had already talked to everyone else who might run and negotiated with them. That's what the GOP leadership needs to do in 2019; start cutting deals with Cruz / etc to have them not run and instead support ye olde moderate candidate.

Though I guess I'm still thinking of the 2000s era GOP party that was good at this stuff, and maybe not the more modern GOP. I just figure they will do what the Dems did in 2004 / GOP in 2012 where they went for a moderate because they just cared about winning, and no longer cared about the purity of the candidate. But maybe a lot more has changed permanently in those 4 years.
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Black Mamba said:
The party barely succeeded in 2012. Every month was a "not romney" candidate.

It's just that those candidates were either super religious or really just peddling a book (Newt) that it didn't work because they couldn't align behind one (but remember in 2012 it also had a fairly large lineup to start).

The GOP has no control over the base right now. Trump gave them someone to unify behind and create a plurality. That wasn't an option in 2012 but it was clear then they had no control.

The GOP, operationally at the Presidential Election level, is a gigantic mess and has been since 2011.
Click to expand...

And speaking of 2012 and the idea of Republicans running a moderate, remember that the most moderate Republican any of us can probably think of (at least with any semblance of a national profile) lost in 2012 by over 100 EVs.

I really really really don't see how the GOP is going to do better than Romney, and that's the mark they have to hit. Just nominated someone like Kasich won't cut it; he's not as mainstream as Romney, and he'd lose just as badly.

That's the thing about Dems and the EC. If you give NH to Clinton, she wins right now. Forget the usual suspects like FL or OH. And the unique thing is that Trump's disadvantages as a candidate (offensive to minorities) is hurting him mostly in states that Dems don't need (sure it's nice that GA and AZ might flip, but ultimately it's just a garnish for the main dish of VA, which is honestly not being affected that much by Trump. It was on this path anyway, and would be against a moderate Republican, as evidenced by Romney).

Any talk about the GOP possibly getting someone like Kasich through the primary is ultimately academic since that candidate would still probably lose (as Romney lost, and it wasn't really close at all).

I legitimately think we're in the left-wing version of 1968-1992; the GOP has made themselves as unpalatable as 80s liberals had done. Now the Dems just have to keep the pressure up and do what they can to prevent the GOP from tossing off their old baggage very easily.
 
benjipwns

benjipwns

Banned
Zukkoyaki said:
When I first started following this race closer I was impartial to Ipsos. But the past month has made me raise a brow toward them.

On 9/5 it was Clinton-40, Trump-38
On 9/6 it was Clinton-41, Trump-34

A five point swing in a single day

On 9/8 it was Clinton-39, Trump-37
On 9/9 it was Trump-41, Clinton-36

A seven point swing in a single day

I feel like these daily online polls should be taken with a grain of salt even when Clinton is ahead.
Click to expand...
Those swings can be described almost entirely by moving one end of the margin of error to the other. Just treat it as if it's multiple separate polls.

In reality, they kinda do in their whole simulation thing.

NeoXChaos said:
Why is Trump doing well in ME-2
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It's everything north and east of Augusta.
 
W

whyamihere

Banned
NeoXChaos said:
.
Click to expand...

This is actually a state where Johnson could hurt Hillary. Perot did very well in Maine and their electorate seems to love their independent candidates. Not to mention that ME-02 is RURAL. She'll win the state, but I would probably put a few bucks on her losing that EV. Anecdotally, my brother goes to college in Maine and there has been no GOTV efforts or registration efforts from the Hillary campaign. So either they're not seeing this, or they don't care.

My guess is that both Maine and Nebraska will split their EV and both states will eventually get rid of the practice before 2020.
 
U

User 463088

Banned
NeoXChaos said:
Why is Trump doing well in ME-2 and will it ultimately go for Hillary?
Click to expand...
Lots of rural voters. Lots of white people. It kind of makes since if he's running huge margins among non-college educated white men.

Also, Ed Rendell is on Hardball right now. I may need to start drinking.
 
D

DrForester

Kills Photobucket
I have been introduced to the Hillary Body Double conspiracy theory....

Even guys like Hannity and Trump aren't dumb enough to start in on that, right?
 
D

daedalius

Member
I just can't bring myself to believe these Johnson and stein numbers in these polls. There is no way Johnson is getting 10% anywhere on Election Day.
 
A

AntraxSuicide

Banned
daedalius said:
I just can't bring myself to believe these Johnson and stein numbers in these polls. There is no way Johnson is getting 10% anywhere on Election Day.
Click to expand...

An interesting breakdown would be to somehow poll how committed to Johnson a person is based on how they answer when forced into the Head 2 Head race. One of Hillary's best areas for votes is to try to get her half (polling confirms that Johnson is pulling from both sides equally, right?) to switch to her while Trump's half stays with Johnson.

In that respect, it's probably better for the Dems that Johnson does better than usual, but not too much better. That would imply that the right-leaning Johnson voters never went home while the left-leaning ones did.
 
benjipwns

benjipwns

Banned
Nafai1123 said:
Every day Jeffrey Lord talks about the Democratic party pre-civil rights and every day it makes him look like an idiot.
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https://web.archive.org/web/2015080.../02/will-gop-demand-obama-apology-for-slavery
Will President Obama – the leader of the Democratic Party – formally apologize for his party’s role in slavery and Jim Crow? Will the Republicans now controlling both the House and Senate pass resolutions calling on the president to apologize for his party’s role in slavery and Jim Crow?
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His other classic:
http://spectator.org/37073_ron-paul-and-neoliberal-reeducation-campaign/
The deception — and it is a considerable deception — is that almost to a person those prominent pre-Ron Paul non-interventionist “Paulist” politicians of the 20th century were overwhelmingly not conservatives at all. They were men of the left. The far left.

From three-time Democratic presidential nominee and Woodrow Wilson Secretary of State William Jennings Bryan to powerful Montana Democratic Senator Burton K. Wheeler to FDR’s ex-vice presidential nominee Henry Wallace to the 1968 anti-war presidential candidacy of Minnesota Democratic Senator Eugene McCarthy to 1972 Democratic presidential nominee (and Henry Wallace delegate in 1948) George McGovern, non-interventionists have held prominent positions in the American Left that was and is the Democratic Party.

But of particular interest, and here is where the deception by Paulists is so considerable, the Ron Paul view of foreign policy has been the cornerstone of Republican liberals and progressives. Those who, using current political terminology, would be called the RINOs (Republican In Name Only) of their day.
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perhaps the real key to understanding the decided left-leaning tendencies of neoliberals is their considerable dislike of… Conservatives

You read that right.

Here are the views of various prominent Paul supporters about some conservatives you may be familiar with.

• Ronald Reagan: Here the late Paulist Murray Rothbard labels the conservative presidential icon as a “cretin,” Reagan’s two-terms in office described as “eight dreary, miserable, mind-numbing years.”

• William F. Buckley, Jr.: The man who became the very gold standard of the American conservative movement is viewed as a “defacto totalitarian” here, again in another Rothbard selection from ex-Paul chief of staff Lew Rockwell’s site, a site for which Paul himself has written.

• Antonin Scalia: Justice Scalia is not only no conservative in Paulville, he is — sitting down? — “a reliable supporter of presidential dictatorship, the police state, the torture-warfare state, and the empire.” This gem was penned by ex-Paul chief of staff Rockwell himself.
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benjipwns

benjipwns

Banned
AntraxSuicide said:
An interesting breakdown would be to somehow poll how committed to Johnson a person is based on how they answer when forced into the Head 2 Head race. One of Hillary's best areas for votes is to try to get her half (polling confirms that Johnson is pulling from both sides equally, right?) to switch to her while Trump's half stays with Johnson.

In that respect, it's probably better for the Dems that Johnson does better than usual, but not too much better. That would imply that the right-leaning Johnson voters never went home while the left-leaning ones did.
Click to expand...
They need to poll why people say they're supporting someone. Needs to be open-ended too.

For all candidates too.
 
P

Piecake

Member
Posted it in the OT thread about the marine hazing abuse already

A Muslim Marine said he was called a terrorist and ordered into an industrial clothes dryer multiple times by a drill instructor who then turned it on, burning him, according to investigative documents that provide new details about the alleged abuse of recruits at the service’s training center at Parris Island, S.C.

“You’re going to kill us all the first chance you get aren’t you, terrorist?” the drill instructor thundered at the recruit, the new Marine later alleged, according to the documents that have not been released publicly but were reviewed by The Washington Post. “What are your plans? Aren’t you a terrorist?”

The issue of hazing and abuse at Parris Island surfaced March 18, when a 20-year-old recruit with Pakistani roots — Raheel Siddiqui of Taylor, Mich. — died after leaping from a stairwell landing that was nearly 40 feet high while running away from the same drill instructor who used the dryer. The instructor had just slapped Siddiqui before he jumped. Siddiqui’s death drew public scrutiny to a culture of harsh punishments at Parris Island — one that Marine officials were already examining, the documents show.

Ethnic and homophobic slurs were also used regularly, and drill instructors ordered repeated, unauthorized physical training that sometimes injured recruits. The drill instructors also sometimes were drunk on the job, bringing Fireball whiskey into work on at least one occasion, recruits told investigators.

In one case, a senior drill instructor who had seen a photograph of a recruit’s sister made him log into his Facebook account so he could request that she call Parris Island on the telephone. When she did, the drill instructor took the phone away from the recruit, introduced himself and said that he had heard she was single and wanted to know whether they could get to know each other. The drill instructor later denied it, but the sister corroborated the recruit’s story with copies of the Facebook messages, according to the documents.

The drill instructor involved in the dryer case, an unidentified sergeant, was allowed to continue training recruits after allegations of abuse were made, in part because Marine officials did not take the accusations seriously, one investigation found.

Recruits who were abused were also warned that “snitches get stitches.” Instructors also bribed recruits with protein bars and other food to keep them quiet, according to the documents.
Click to expand...

Marine drill instructor accused of running a clothes dryer with a Muslim recruit inside

That's some fucked up shit
 
F

Finale Fireworker

Member
NeoXChaos said:
Why is Trump doing well in ME-2 and will it ultimately go for Hillary?
Click to expand...

I live in southern Maine.

Northern and Southern Maine view each other with contempt. Despite big (relatively speaking) cities up north like Bangor and Augusta, Maine is divided at the Portland line. To each half of the state, the other half might as well not exist.

Furthermore, the extremes in each half of the state view each other with utter disgust. People down south think that people up north are wild-eyed woodland folk who all share one set of teeth. They don't have computers and have never seen a black person before and they probably still pump their water from a outdoor spigot, which is why they never shower.

People up north think people down south are aloof tourists. Or tourists who settled down here because Maine is pretty as a postcard. Southerners are pretentious and lack substance and aren't "real Maine" because everything revolves around tourism and tourism culture. People down south are transient liberals with beach homes who are always telling real Mainers how to live.

Maine is also a rapidly aging state with a very poor economy. Young people leave the state and don't come back, so the people who stay here are territorial and defensive. This is specially true up north, where population is thinner the notion of "local" is deeply ingrained in the families who have been there forever. People down south are liberal, leave the state often to work, to shop, and take trips. People down south are used to a (slightly) more diverse population and better schools. People up north work labor jobs and have seen factories and mills close that have put hundreds out of work. They are old white men who are only friends with old white men who live in a very closed off ecosystem. You go to work at the Bath Ironworks with your buddies, you drive your pickup to the only bar, you all get drunk and go home and do it all again. When you see friends out of work and companies closing, and have been there long enough to remember when it was different, you have a lot of resentment towards the people you think caused the problem.

So north gravitates towards the Trump rhetoric. South finds it repulsive. Because we already don't like each other, we become more passionate about our beliefs just to spite the people in the other half of the state we have grown up thinking are idiots.

Maine is, possibly, the most polarized state in the country. Maybe PA is close to it?

We didn't use to be this way. Maine and Maine people used to pride themselves on independence. Two Paul LePage elections has pretty much spoiled that for a generation.
 
A

Anno

Member
Gabe Ortíz @TUSK81
#BasketOfDeplorables: Donald Trump supporter punches 69-year-old protester outside rally.
Click to expand...

The lady appears to be wearing an oxygen tank. Pretty macho thing to do, punching elderly ladies dependent upon breathing assistance.

Edit: Ah crap I guess this was from last night. Oh well. For anyone else who missed it.
 
V

Veelk

Banned
RastaMentality said:
The debate moment when Megyn Kelly completely exposed trump U and brought out the goddamn receipts was so iconic - http://youtu.be/Xffgl45LveY

Hillary will have to do this on her own since the moderators don't really inject themselves into the debates like that but yeah it was great.
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I still think the 1 on 1 interview megyn kelly did with trump later is the best indicator of how deep they are in with him. After Megyn went after him in the debates, and he insulted her personally, they is just there, smarmy as all fuck, while Megyn forgives him without him even saying he's sorry.

It was just kind of gross to watch.
 
I

ItWasMeantToBe19

Banned
Jeremy Corbyn is refusing to attend leadership hustings organised by the Mirror, New Statesman, Guardian or Channel Four as his team believe they are all biased against him.

In an email seen by the Huff Post UK, Corbyn’s campaign director Jon Lansman accuses those four media outlets of taking “partisan positions against Jeremy’s leadership or campaign”, adding they “therefore can’t be regarded as impartial hosts or moderators”.

His objections are part of a series of back-and-forth negotiations between Labour HQ and Corbyn’s campaign over how the leadership contest debates should be arranged.
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Trump-Left

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/sep/10/jeremy-corbyn-israel-yad-vashem?CMP=twt_gu
 
benjipwns

benjipwns

Banned
Finale Fireworker said:
Furthermore, the extremes in each half of the state view each other with utter contempt. People down south think that people up north are wild-eyed woodland folk who all share one set of teeth. They don't have computers and have never seen a black person before and they probably still pump their water from a well, which is why they never shower.

People up north think people down south are aloof tourists. Or tourists who settled down here because Maine is pretty as a postcard. Southerners are pretentious and lack substance and aren't "real Maine" because everything revolves around tourism and tourism culture. People down south are transient liberals with beach homes who are always telling real Mainers how to live.
Click to expand...
The crazy part is they're both right!
 
A

AntraxSuicide

Banned
Finale Fireworker said:
Maine is, possibly, the most polarized state in the country. Maybe PA is close to it?
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I could see that with maybe the qualifier that it's the most polarized when weighted by ethnic homogeneity. I could definitely argue MS is a harsh political divide where the Delta might as well be it's own state.

Mississippi_Senate_Election_Results_by_County,_2012.png
Click to expand...

This is how the state voted in 2012.

blacksinmiss.jpg
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And this is our black population by county. Stark divide along racial lines here.
 
G

Grief.exe

Member
daedalius said:
I just can't bring myself to believe these Johnson and stein numbers in these polls. There is no way Johnson is getting 10% anywhere on Election Day.
Click to expand...

A lot of pundits are pointing out that adding in third party candidates for polling at this point in the race is just soaking up typical undecideds.

Historically, third party candidate support in the polls start to take a dive around October as people start locking in a choice.
 
benjipwns

benjipwns

Banned
Anno said:
The lady appears to be wearing an oxygen tank. Pretty macho thing to do, punching elderly ladies dependent upon breathing assistance.

Edit: Ah crap I guess this was from last night. Oh well. For anyone else who missed it.
Click to expand...
I didn't watch the video but you'd think the secret service wouldn't let them get that close to Hillary.
 
R

RastaMentality

Banned
The Palin debate being the second most watched debate in history (first being Reagan-Carter) makes me think this first debate might manage to crack 75 million.
 
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