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PoliGAF 2016 |OT10| Jill Stein Inflatable Love Doll

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T

thefro

Member
Good news is we're 2 months out so hopefully people wake up and stop thinking this is in the bag so they don't have to vote or can protest vote and hand Trump the election.
 
P

PBY

Banned
Maxim726X said:
But that's the thing- He didn't have a good month. He's done nothing noteworthy in the last 4 weeks. He had a terrible showing last week. It doesn't seem to matter.
Click to expand...

We need to stop with this. He had a great month for Trump, and that's what matters.

Thats it. There are a ton of people who are looking for an excuse to vote for him, and if he can "pivot" and be a dickhead level 5 instead of dickhead level 10 that's enough for many. More importantly, fair or not Hillary had an awful month - emails, health, and kind of invisible. Nothing stuck for her. Thats just the reality of this race, and I think the media has been subpar, but I don't really think its their fault. Its just a really divided electorate that was always going to be close, especially with strong-ish 3rd party options sucking away from Hillary.

She needs to be better, and that's pretty much it.
 
N

NYCmetsfan

Banned
Among those
likely voters, 31% described themselves as Democrats, 32% described themselves as Republicans and 37% described themselves
as independents or members of another party
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Republican leaning.

Don't want to unskew but this really seems to be how LV screens are drawn (she still loses in RVs I think think this is the great divide)

though these polls can be self reinforcing the closer trump gets to victory the more people will feel comfortable supporting him
 
T

Teggy

Member
Caitlin Huey-BurnsVerified account
‏@CHueyBurnsRCP
During appearance at Flint church: Trump started to attack Clinton, pastor interrupted to say he was not invited to give a political speech.
Click to expand...

Dayum


In other news, I probably need to not look at any polls or read any news until the debate <runs around with hair on fire>
 
M

MHWilliams

Member
Nafai1123 said:
WHY!?
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Two choices. They support trump and don't always want to say it out loud.

The nuclear option.

And then I also obviously struggle with Donald Trump. The things I like about him are: I believe that sometimes you just have to blow shit up to build it again, and I think that a Trump presidency would do that. But just when I sort of get there with him, like, Ohhhhhhkayyyy, he says or does something and I'm like, "No, I can't!" Like saying, "What do you have to lose?" to African-Americans. Like, WHAT? What?

I cover this stuff every day. So for me, four years of Trump, selfishly, sounds a lot more enticing, just because it's going to be a dumpster fire. And a Clinton administration would be more of what we're seeing now, which is carefully orchestrated speeches, behind-the-scenes Wealthy McWealthysons going in and out of the White House, and really horrible transparency with the press.
Click to expand...
 
W

whyamihere

Banned
Maybe he's leading in a few polls because he's a manifestation of what the Republican party wanted, there's a lot of people who don't agree with policies that we love, and Hillary Clinton had a bad week? Maybe he's leading because of the LV screens, maybe it's noise. Maybe it's something. Maybe this is the natural contours of the race.

Like, Trump isn't unique. I think it was silly for us to think that The Republican Nominee would do that much worse than Romney.

Incognito said:
perhaps hillary's month of campaigning in the hamptons and beverly hills wanst best use of time
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you're right she got nothing out of those trips that she can use going forward and has absolutely no way of getting people who might have fallen out of like with her this past month to commit to voting her again
 
P

PBY

Banned
NYCmetsfan said:
Republican leaning.

Don't want to unskew but this really seems to be how LV screens are drawn (she still loses in RVs I think think this is the great divide)

though these polls can be self reinforcing the closer trump gets to victory the more people will feel comfortable supporting him
Click to expand...

We've been doing this for a few days now, and I keep banging the "trust the polls" drum. There are going to be flaws, but in the aggregate, they show us what's happening. We can't do this to every poll - there's clearly a Trump surge happening and Hillary's support is slowly peeling off.

I'm not freaking out, but I'm not going on ahead assuming that the race is trending the right direction.
 
M

Maxim726X

Member
PBY said:
We need to stop with this. He had a great month for Trump, and that's what matters.

Thats it. There are a ton of people who are looking for an excuse to vote for him, and if he can "pivot" and be a dickhead level 5 instead of dickhead level 10 that's enough for many. More importantly, fair or not Hillary had an awful month - emails, health, and kind of invisible. Nothing stuck for her. Thats just the reality of this race, and I think the media has been subpar, but I don't really think its their fault. Its just a really divided electorate that was always going to be close, especially with strong-ish 3rd party options sucking away from Hillary.

She needs to be better, and that's pretty much it.
Click to expand...

Hahaha stop with what?? What the fuck did he do that was 'great' for him over the last few weeks? Read from a fucking teleprompter and not hurl his feces at a reporter? He still has given very little in the way of policy, flip-flopped on amnesty, went to Mexico and was embarrassed by the President, just threatened to steal a sovereign nation's oil last week... What am I missing here?

This is an example of the different playing field here. He's done nothing noteworthy, but because he didn't implode for a few weeks he's done 'well'. He just hasn't completely fucked up.

Yeah, this is on her. 100% on her and her campaign. He's done nothing to deserve this bump.
 
B

Boke1879

Member
Incognito said:
perhaps hillary's month of campaigning in the hamptons and beverly hills wanst best use of time
Click to expand...

But that likely had little to do with anything. She was still polling well and last week she was doing well with the press.

Trump just hasn't lit his dick on fire in a while and it's working for him, media continues to be soft on him for whatever reason.

Only thing Clinton can do is focus on her policies and get back out there publicly. Unfortunately Sunday didn't go well for her.
 
W

whyamihere

Banned
Maxim726X said:
Hahaha stop with what?? What the fuck did he do that was 'great' for him over the last few weeks? Read from a fucking teleprompter and not hurl his feces at a reporter? He still has given very little in the way of policy, flip-flopped on amnesty, went to Mexico and was embarrassed by the President, just threatened to steal a sovereign nation's oil last week... What am I missing here?

This is an example of the different playing field here. He's done nothing noteworthy, but because he didn't implode for a few weeks he's done 'well'. He just hasn't completely fucked up.

Yeah, this is on her. 100% on her and her campaign. He's done nothing to deserve this bump.
Click to expand...

Because he's not appealing to you, so what he's doing that might "work" for others who were on the fence is not mean to work for you. Don't confuse your own preferences to the preferences for the electorate.
 
P

PBY

Banned
Maxim726X said:
Hahaha stop with what?? What the fuck did he do that was 'great' for him over the last few weeks? Read from a fucking teleprompter and not hurl his feces at a reporter? He still has given very little in the way of policy, flip-flopped on amnesty, went to Mexico and was embarrassed by the President, just threatened to steal a sovereign nation's oil last week... What am I missing here?

This is an example of the different playing field here. He's done nothing noteworthy, but because he didn't implode for a few weeks he's done 'well'. He just hasn't completely fucked up.

Yeah, this is on her. 100% on her and her campaign. He's done nothing to deserve this bump.
Click to expand...

I agree with the bolded, and that's kind of my point - we can point to a slanted playing field, but these campaigns have been going on for nearly a year now, and the deck is set where it is. These expectations aren't shifting, so relative to his past year Trump came off this past month like a saint. He wasn't embarrassed in Mexico, he came out with this maternity leave plan, and he's slightly filtered himself. For Trump, that's like the greatest month ever - which isn't fair, but is reality. He's done a ton of really shitty things in the past month, but if those don't rise to the level of his past misbehavior, it doesn't matter.

Which is to say, this all ties in to your last point with which I also agree - if Trump isn't going to implode, she needs to step it up.
 
M

Maxim726X

Member
whyamihere said:
Because he's not appealing to you, so what he's doing that might "work" for others who were on the fence is not mean to work for you. Don't confuse your own preferences to the preferences for the electorate.
Click to expand...

Great. But what does that mean?

Again I ask- What was a big 'win' for him over the last month? What has he done over the last few weeks that would warrant this kind of bump?
 
W

whyamihere

Banned
I had missed the 2012 experience of the left losing its shit after one day of bad polling.

Maxim726X said:
Great. But what does that mean?

Again I ask- What was a big 'win' for him over the last month? What has he done over the last few weeks that would warrant this kind of bump?
Click to expand...

He's done nothing notable, which is exactly what he needs to do to get Republicans who voted for Romney more comfortable with voting for him. I didn't realize it was a secret that Trump was not doing well with Republicans.
 
I

ItWasMeantToBe19

Banned
The only people strongly against legal weed are white evangelicals who already view Hillary as the antichrist. The people strongly for are Busters who are self-centered liberals.
 
I

iammeiam

Member
Polls are worrying.

[url="https://mobile.twitter.com/alivitali/status/776151773836873729]Meanwhile Trump getting cut off by pastors mid-rant:[/url]
As Trump bashes HRC, pastor interrupts to say "I invited you here to thank us...not give a political speech
CsVx6xTXgAAq0zI.jpg
Click to expand...
 
P

PBY

Banned
Maxim726X said:
Great. But what does that mean?

Again I ask- What was a big 'win' for him over the last month? What has he done over the last few weeks that would warrant this kind of bump?
Click to expand...

He is really good at getting out in front of the media and getting his stories to get play - if those stories are mostly neutral to positive, and not "LOOK AT THIS DUDE INSULTING GOLD STAR FAMILIES" that's enough for him.
 
V

Voysa Reezun

Banned
Clinton still at 273 in states where poll aggregates have her up 7+ IIRC, but this just shows that Florida and Ohio are mistakes and should be thrown out of the union.

(I still think she wins FL, though.)
 
H

Hopfrog

Member
Predictions for Trump presidency, year one:

- At war with Iran because they flipped the bird at our beautiful destroyers; at war with Spain because the ambassador looked at him funny

- Russia invades much of eastern Europe, new Secretary of State Paul Manafort complimenting Putin on being such a strong leader for those in Belarus, Estonia, Latvia

- New school lunch program: Trump steaks for every child!
 
E

Ecotic

Member
Just awful CNN numbers. Fundamentally Hillary is showing no passion for the job, she's not fighting. I keep waiting for the big push that never comes. She better not come back tomorrow with a low-key event then disappear to California for three days worth of quiet fundraisers. She's bleeding out because she's campaigning from the backstage while Trump has been front and center every night for a month.
 
D

DontBeThatGuy

Member
whyamihere said:
I had missed the 2012 experience of the left losing its shit after one day of bad polling.
Click to expand...

It's understandable, particularly this election, with consideration to how unpopular Clinton actually is. There's no upward momentum, and there's no one more scrutinized than Clinton, so one misstep and shit seemingly hits the fan.
 
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