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[NeoXChaos]

PollingReport.com
‏@pollreport
FLORIDA
U.S. Senate:
Rubio (R) 54%
Murphy (D) 43%
(CNN/ORC Poll, LV, 9/7-12)

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[RustyNails]

Starting to think that deplorables line backfired. She will recover. I think the stakes for debate just got higher.

 

[Voysa Reezun]

Seriously, this happens every four years. It's never as good or as bad as you think it is. Trump still will lose minority groups at near-historic levels, and since this isn't Europe, we make up a lot of the population.

Diablos over what white professionals are doing or what young white folks are saying all you want, though. I think you guys kinda like this.

 

[HylianTom]

How did GAF handle Obama's post first debate polls in 2012? I wish I had been around for that year.

It was bedlam. And then Uncle Joe stepped in.

That Tim Kaine pick is looking pretty solid right now, I must say..

(And CNN's poll shows Obama's approval underwater in these two states. That's.. interesting.)

 

[DontBeThatGuy]

Do the polls really matter that much given how well Hillary is performing in swing states? Won't it all come down to that?

Ohio and Florida are important swing states.

 

[Wilsongt]

Quick, someone do a match up of Bernie vs Trump!

 

[whyamihere]

How did GAF handle Obama's post first debate polls in 2012? I wish I had been around for that year.

Look at today. It was worse.

 

[BlastProcessing]

Queen gonna do a cartwheel on stage tomorrow to destroy health rumors. Poll numbers will rise through the roof.

 

[DontBeThatGuy]

What were the polls like post-first debate? I don't remember.

 

[PBY]

Look at today. It was worse.

On a fundamental level - it HAS to be worse. Mitt would probably have been a mediocre president, and truly awful for some groups no doubt, but it is a cataclysmic event if Trump is elected. The fear is going to be different.

 

[Crisco]

Ohio and Florida are important swing states.

Not really, not this year. They are important for Trump in that he can't win the Presidency without both of them. Not so much for Hillary who has paths without them.

 

[Zukkoyaki]

18-49 LVs don't exist for CNN.

Holy crap you're right, the Florida poll doesn't include 18-34 and 35-49 was also missing on some of the questions

http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2016/images/09/14/floridapoll.pdf

 

[PBY]

Not really, not this year. They are important for Trump in the he can't win the Presidency without both of them. Not so much for Hillary who has paths without them.

I mean... that doesn't mean they're not important for her though.

 

[Plinko]

I'm sorry, but Trump drawing even with Hillary is worthy of fear.

And it was a month ago when it started. I'm starting to lose faith that Hillary's team knows how to fix this. You absolutely CANNOT rely on the media and the debates to do it.

 

[Measley]

Holy crap you're right, the Florida poll doesn't include 18-34 and 35-49 was also missing on some of the questions

http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2016/images/09/14/floridapoll.pdf

Gotta keep the horse race going.....

 

[royalan]

We need to stop with this. He had a great month for Trump, and that's what matters.

Thats it. There are a ton of people who are looking for an excuse to vote for him, and if he can "pivot" and be a dickhead level 5 instead of dickhead level 10 that's enough for many. More importantly, fair or not Hillary had an awful month - emails, health, and kind of invisible. Nothing stuck for her. Thats just the reality of this race, and I think the media has been subpar, but I don't really think its their fault. Its just a really divided electorate that was always going to be close, especially with strong-ish 3rd party options sucking away from Hillary.

She needs to be better, and that's pretty much it.

This.

She needs to get out in front of her base more. Her local campaigning is great, but she can't be so invisible on a national level.

People need to see the real Hillary, and not just the caricature the right props up and the media feeds into.

 

[excelsiorlef]

Holy crap you're right, the Florida poll doesn't include 18-34 and 35-49 was also missing on some of the questions

http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2016/images/09/14/floridapoll.pdf

What the fuck kind of poll starts at age 50.

 

[DontBeThatGuy]

Look at today. It was worse.

You underestimate the shaky ground Clinton is on. The standards are just different with her. She's not Obama.

 

[RustyNails]

Holy crap you're right, the Florida poll doesn't include 18-34 and 35-49 was also missing on some of the questions

http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2016/images/09/14/floridapoll.pdf

Did they not poll 18-49 at all, or did they simply not include them in crosstabs? Because not polling 18-49 is a worthless poll and CNN/ORC is pretty reputable.

 

[nature boy]

Holy crap you're right, the Florida poll doesn't include 18-34 and 35-49 was also missing on some of the questions

http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2016/images/09/14/floridapoll.pdf

CNN adjusting their polls to their demographic.

Did they not poll 18-49 at all, or did they simply not include them in crosstabs? Because not polling 18-49 is a worthless poll and CNN/ORC is pretty reputable.

Didn't pass the LV screening. Both in OH and FL it's N/A.

 

[BlastProcessing]

What the fuck kind of poll starts at age 50.

Florida polls!

 

[Zukkoyaki]

Did they not poll 18-49 at all, or did they simply not include them in crosstabs? Because not polling 18-49 is a worthless poll and CNN/ORC is pretty reputable.

18-34 doesn't seem to have been included at all. And 35-49 shows up on some of the questions and is missing from others (like on page 9).

http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2016/images/09/14/floridapoll.pdf

 

[sphagnum]

She could lose Arizona, Utah, Iowa, Ohio, North Carolina, Georgia, Florida, and Maine's wacky district and still win 272 - 266.

 

[whyamihere]

You underestimate the shaky ground Clinton is on. The standards are just different with her. She's not Obama.

I'm commenting on the general panic that happened in 2012 after polls started coming out after the first debate. I'm going to post the same posters's posts from 4 years ago, but it was just as bad as it was today.

You're right, she's not Obama. And Trump's not Romney. I don't see the point in freaking out over a bad day in polling besides keeping your head down and getting the work done.

 

[NYCmetsfan]

And it was a month ago when it started. I'm starting to lose faith that Hillary's team knows how to fix this. You absolutely CANNOT rely on the media and the debates to do it.

Fix what?

 

[smurfx]

How did GAF handle Obama's post first debate polls in 2012? I wish I had been around for that year.

don't remember if i diablos'd on gaf but i know i was shook irl.

 

[Debirudog]

Things were slowly going well for her again until she got sick. There's not much you can do until you're feeling better.

 

[Plinko]

I'm commenting on the general panic that happened in 2012 after polls started coming out after the first debate. I'm going to post the same posters's posts from 4 years ago, but it was just as bad as it was today.

You're right, she's not Obama. And Trump's not Romney. I don't see the point in freaking out over a bad day in polling besides keeping your head down and getting the work done.

Because she and her team have been doing this for a month and a half, and it has let Trump make this a race.

Fix what?

Campaign strategy. Commercials. Reaching out to voters. Clearly, what she has been doing has not been working.

 

[NYCmetsfan]

She could lose Arizona, Utah, Iowa, Ohio, North Carolina, Georgia, Florida, and Maine's wacky district and still win 272 - 266.

and if trump loses 1! of those

 

[User 463088]

Oh baby Jesus...

THe NA does not mean they didn't pass the LV screen or that they didn't interview them! It means that the sample was probably small with an insanely high MoE. If it lists NA it means the MoE was greater than 8.5%.

 

[RustyNails]

CNN adjusting their polls to their demographic.



Didn't pass the LV screening. Both in OH and FL it's N/A.

I dont understand. Shouldn't this be a disclaimer then that its only a poll of old people? Probably missing something.

 

[Nazgul_Hunter]

So it's either a polling blip, or Hillary has a *really* bad youth problem. The GOTV needs to be on point.

I dont understand. Shouldn't this be a disclaimer then that its only a poll of old people? Probably missing something.

I think it would mean that not enough RVs in those age brackets passed the LV filter. It could be because it's a bad filter, or they're _that_ unlikely to vote.

 

[Wolfgunblood Garopa]

Has Trump responded to Powell calling him a national disgrace?

 

[thebloo]

Now the campaign is incompetent again and Hillary is showing no passion because a poll came out. Smfh

You guys are deplorable.

 

[Zukkoyaki]

Nate Cohn says that it's missing 18-34 and 35-49 because they didn't get enough respondents to include them. Shouldn't that race eyebrows?

 

[wutwutwut]

N/A just means the margin of error is too high.

 

[NYCmetsfan]

Because she and her team have been doing this for a month and a half, and it has let Trump make this a race.

THIS WAS NEVER GOING TO BE A RUNAWAY.

that's not how elections work

also remember this

Still, even if none of this occurs, the media will eventually grow tired of the “Trump’s finished” story line and move on to the much more clickable “Trump’s comeback” narrative. Any day now, some Quinnipiac poll that shows a tied race in Pennsylvania will force Democrats to lose control of their bladders. A Trump surge in a stray tracking poll will result in a CNN Breaking News Countdown Clock that will tick down the seconds to an emergency panel of 37 pundits. The sheer hysteria of the “How Could She Blow This?” pieces will dwarf the collective freak-out that followed President Obama’s first debate loss in 2012. It won’t be pretty.

 

[Plinko]

Hillary is still in the driver's seat. She needs ONE swing state left. Nevada, NH, whatever. One.

That said, the swing over the last month and a half has been bad. There is still a month and a half until the election. Hopefully it goes much better.

Nate Cohn says that it's missing 18-34 and 35-49 because they didn't get enough respondents to include them. Shouldn't that race eyebrows?

Absolutely it should, as should the demographics from the Ohio poll earlier. It's not panic time, but it is absolutely justified to question Hillary's campaign strategy.

 

[kadotsu]

You guys are Now-Cast bad.

 

[thepotatoman]

When they switch to likely voters, people under 45 are dropping off

Yikes.

2010 and 2014 shows what sort of electorate can create a republican landslide, and we probably shouldn't take it for granted that the presidential elections will always be entirely different. It's not going to be a republican landslide, but it can drift towards those midterm style electorates.

She really should have picked Warren as VP. I'm not sure how else she can guarantee the under 45 crowd to show up for her.

Good news is that when everything is going against hillary she's at worst down by a couple points, and when everything is going against Trump he's down by 8. Come election day, Hillary probably isn't going to be at her worst, but I guess it's not 100% guaranteed.

 

[NYCmetsfan]

Hillary is still in the driver's seat. She needs ONE swing state left. Nevada, NH, whatever. One.

That said, the swing over the last month and a half has been bad. There is still a month and a half until the election. Hopefully it goes much better.

Hillary's people are concerned about one thing. Getting to 270.

 

[nature boy]

Oh baby Jesus...

THe NA does not mean they didn't pass the LV screen or that they didn't interview them! It means that the sample was probably small with an insanely high MoE. If it lists NA it means the MoE was greater than 8.5%.

Which was my point. The poll is problematic if they don't have enough LV in that demographic.

I didn't say they didn't interview them.

 

[Nazgul_Hunter]

Hillary's people are concerned about one thing. Getting to 270.

Not that long ago they were concerned with how to run up the score...

 

[Measley]

THIS WAS NEVER GOING TO BE A RUNAWAY.

that's not how elections work

also remember this

Anyone wondering why the media is being soft on Trump just needs to read that. The media is going to make its money.

 

[Spiritreaver]

I was looking at OT4 from 2012 and it was full of Diablos jokes. I'm proud of you all.

don't remember if i diablos'd on gaf but i know i was shook irl.

Same here. I was actually worried Obama wasn't going to make a good showing that year. I didn't post much about it on GAF though.

 

[Aaron Strife]

If they can't get enough 18-49 y/os polled to get a low enough margin of error that should still raise eyebrows.

Willing to bet she wins Florida relatively comfortably. Ohio (and Iowa) will be the closest Obama state(s) but they'll pull through... This time.

 

[Cybit]

18-49 LVs don't exist for CNN.

Nate Cohn says that it's missing 18-34 and 35-49 because they didn't get enough respondents to include them. Shouldn't that race eyebrows?

considering how low their turnout is (23% in 2014) + everyone hating this election? A little bit of eyebrow raising, but not Rock level eyebrow raising.

 

[Plinko]

Hillary's people are concerned about one thing. Getting to 270.

Now they are. A month ago it was, "How can we help downballot races?" That may have been a major tactical error.

 

[Prof. Bathtub]

I don't see the use in worrying. If the worst happens, it will happen regardless of any anticipation on my part.

 

[whyamihere]

Because she and her team have been doing this for a month and a half, and it has let Trump make this a race.

It was probably always going to be a race, and we were naive to think otherwise. I don't understand why people don't understand this. Trump is a manifestation of the GOP electorate. As soon as he started consolidating support of the GOP (as he's been doing), he was going to start getting Romney-esque numbers. Does that bother you? Sure. He's more of an existential threat than Romney is. But this is what the person what the other side of the country wanted as their nominee and reflects their wishes. It shouldn't be surprising that he's polling at 40%+.

Also, you know as well as I do that wasn't the point I was making as it was a figure of speech. Don't do that, please . Keeping your head down and doing the work means not freaking out about every single poor day of polling and doing everything necessary to get elected. Keep on pushing because if you let yourself get caught up in the pollercoaster, you will lose.