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PoliGAF 2016 |OT10| Jill Stein Inflatable Love Doll

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Which was my point. The poll is problematic if they don't have enough LV in that demographic.

I didn't say they didn't interview them.

This is not uncommon independent of RV vs LV screens! Response rates among young people are terrible, because most people under 30 are also terrible in general. (Okay, well, not really, but still...)

Like, if we don't like the results, let's, you know, do something about it instead of "Hillary is trash" "her campaign is stupid" "THIS SHOULD BE A 90 POINT WIN!" Like, come on.

Like this is just ridiculous at this point.
 

Maxim726X

Member
Clinton still at 273 in states where poll aggregates have her up 7+ IIRC, but this just shows that Florida and Ohio are mistakes and should be thrown out of the union.

(I still think she wins FL, though.)

Yeah, ultimately I think she does as well. But it's a lot closer than it needs to be.

IIRC, Obama was either tied/down in Florida the day of the election in 2012.

I'm commenting on the general panic that happened in 2012 after polls started coming out after the first debate. I'm going to post the same posters's posts from 4 years ago, but it was just as bad as it was today.

You're right, she's not Obama. And Trump's not Romney. I don't see the point in freaking out over a bad day in polling besides keeping your head down and getting the work done.

Yeah, one bad day. That's all it's been.
 

Boke1879

Member
Now the campaign is incompetent again and Hillary is showing no passion because a poll came out. Smfh

You guys are deplorable.

This place was high on hope literally one week ago. She was out there. She was with the press etc. Now people are saying she hasn't been visible. The past 3 days? Sure. Before that she was out there.

What she needs to do imo is be more visible and talk policy. Fuck Trump and what he's doing. Get your policy positions out there at rallies.

There isn't shit she can do to make the media hold Trump to a higher standard, and to be fair no matter what she does she gets criticized. So just keep trucking. Keep up a strong ground game, and her BEST assets right now is the coalition of Barack, Michelle, Bernie, Biden, Kaine, and Warren.
 
Now they are. A month ago it was, "How can we help downballot races?" That may have been a major tactical error.
How so? Clinton is still up comfortably enough in states that go over 270. You can drop off NV, FL, OH and IA from Obama's map and she still wins. And that ignores states like NC where she still has a real shot.
 

Joeytj

Banned
The Clinton campaign has never had any delusions about the race. It was always going to be close, very likely as close as 2012. Obama actually had worse numbers than Hillary right now, or about the same.

Yes, there is a clear enthusiams gap that has appeared after the weekend, with mostly HIllary supporters just being depressed in Likely Voter screenings, CNN says so:

Younger voters, who were a key driver of President Barack Obama's support in both 2008 and 2012, are not lining up as solidly behind Clinton in either state, and they are less likely than older voters to make it through a likely voter screen at this point in the campaign, suggesting they are less enthusiastic about voting in this election.

So yeah, obviously Hillary being out of the campaign for days isn't helping. Although CNN has also been one of the most pro-Trump polls out there since June, especially when Hillary takes a hit.

Tomorrow she's back, but I would caution the campaign (as if they care about our advice) against reacting stupidly.

Again, take a look at this map of Clinton campaign offices in mid-August:

clinton-offices.jpg


This is a map from a campaign that never thought this was going to be a zinch. There are a more battleground states, but a lot of the same ones also. Many here wrote off Michigan and Wisconsin, but the Clinton campaign never did, if that is any comfort.
 
Also, this doesn't really seem to be an issue is not what happened in August, but what transpired over the past few days, so I'm a bit confused as to why certain posters seem to be making it about that!
 

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
How so? Clinton is still up comfortably enough in states that go over 270. You can drop off NV, FL, OH and IA from Obama's map and she still wins. And that ignores states like NC where she still has a real shot.

I know this, but I also realize that if these polls are changing, there is also a chance polls in other states are as well.

But Joeytj, someone said Clinton has no campaign strategy

Who said this?

We've known about this map for weeks now. "Hillary's campaign may be making some mistakes" is nowhere near the hyperbole of "She has no campaign strategy."
 

Snake

Member
Folks, stop aggressively trying to discredit polls you don't like to see. They could be outliers, or they could be short-term trends that will dissipate, or they could be very accurate which would mean you're deluding yourselves by ignoring meaningful data.

It is absolutely possible that Trump is polling better nationally than he has been, and that he's doing better than usual in key swing states. If you want to do something productive about it then join the Clinton campaign in some capacity. If not, then stop checking political threads for a while and hope it gets better in a few weeks.
 

royalan

Member
You can simultaneously understand the race was always going to be close while thinking it's getting uncomfortably close.

And it's getting a little snug.

I think enthusiasm is starting to effect the polls.

Trump has been a dumpster fire for so long that people are numb to it now, and honestly the campaign seems to be at a temporary loss on how to counter that numbness, but constantly sounding the alarm on him won't do it.
 

Emarv

Member
I've really enjoy the last few pages. We needed a good, warranted diablos.

We can unskew all day or debate statistical outliers, but the point is the race is tighter and the base needs to get motivated. Things need to get real.
 
Yeah, one bad day. That's all it's been.

Today has been a bad day for polling where we had two swing state polls where Trump was up big and a national poll where Clinton was up big. We have not seen something like that for Trump in swing state polls in a while. So yes, it has been one bad day out of a relatively stable few weeks.
 

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
You can simultaneously understand the race was always going to be close while thinking it's getting uncomfortably close.

And it's getting a little snug.

I think enthusiasm is starting to effect the polls.

Trump has been a dumpster fire for so long that people are numb to it now, and honestly the campaign seems to be at a temporary loss on how to counter that numbness, but constantly sounding the alarm on him won't do it.

Exactly.
 

Maxim726X

Member
Also current polling averages actually have Clinton winning 347 EVs.

But yes let's all keep freaking out man.

nothingtoseehere.gif

Just as bad as the 'world is ending' posters. There's somewhere in the middle, here. She's lost a *lot* of ground in the last 4 weeks.

Yes, she's still in a good place right now. But states that were safe a few weeks ago are now leaning Trump- That's not good. If that trend continues, it's quite problematic in fact. I don't see why discussing that is doomsaying.
 

Bowdz

Member
Can we start recognizing that the basket of deplorables line wasn't a net benefit? Beyond the August slide that shouldn't have happened, the last two weeks were terrible for her. Some of it was manufactured by the media (Clinton Foundation), but a lot of it was the Clinton campaign's fault. The deplorable line, while factually correct, gave Trump a chance to act like he is above the fray and allowed him to look better towards our glorious bunch of short term memory voters.

Coverage for Clinton has been shit for weeks and this weekend was the turd cherry on top. Even as a supporter, I don't feel like the Clinton campaign is in control of the narrative at all. They are purely reactive. Yes, Trump is being graded on a curve, but his campaign is also not being run by complete idiots, and thus, they are successfully spinning away negatives and actually driving the narrative.

I hope this is a low point and not the norm, but we can't take anything for granted. I don't ultimately think Trump will win Florida or Ohio, but they are getting way to fucking close. Clinton really needs to barnstorm some universities with joint appearances from Bernie, Warren, and Obama and get the youth vote back locked in. I don't think we'll get back to the high of the post convention period, but I think the take home is that if the youth vote comes home, Clinton wins handily, but if they don't, it'll be a super close race nationally.

I don't think any of us want a close EV race where Trump and the GOP can further delegitimize Clinton as President. Here's to hoping team Clinton gets their shit together and drive the narrative daily like Trump is.
 

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
This is when you hope the campaign puts its head down and does the work as opposed to acting how we are right now.

Sorry--I took what you said earlier as "keep doing the same thing you've been doing." That obviously hasn't worked well over the last month, which is why I questioned it.
 

HylianTom

Banned
This is selfish, but part of me hopes that this gets Obama out onto the trail a bit early. He's great at commanding media attention, and I'd love to see more joint-appearances with him and Hillary.
 
Hillary Clinton’s campaign on Wednesday released more information about her health that depicted her as a healthy 68-year-old woman with low cholesterol (without taking a statin) and seasonal allergies.

HAHAHA that dig at Trump
 
This is not uncommon independent of RV vs LV screens! Response rates among young people are terrible, because most people under 30 are also terrible in general. (Okay, well, not really, but still...)

Like, if we don't like the results, let's, you know, do something about it instead of "Hillary is trash" "her campaign is stupid" "THIS SHOULD BE A 90 POINT WIN!" Like, come on.

Like this is just ridiculous at this point.

I think it's fair to question the poll if their LV screening doesn't have enough under 50s for the MOE. What conclusions can one reach if they can't reliably sample under 50s? Total WTF.

I'm not pissing on the campaign, I'm fine with her campaign with the exception of her tv ads.
 
Can we start recognizing that the basket of deplorables line wasn't a net benefit? Beyond the August slide that shouldn't have happened, the last two weeks were terrible for her. Some of it was manufactured by the media (Clinton Foundation), but a lot of it was the Clinton campaign's fault. The deplorable line, while factually correct, gave Trump a chance to act like he is above the fray and allowed him to look better towards our glorious bunch of short term memory voters.

Coverage for Clinton has been shit for weeks and this weekend was the turd cherry on top. Even as a supporter, I don't feel like the Clinton campaign is in control of the narrative at all. They are purely reactive. Yes, Trump is being graded on a curve, but his campaign is also not being run by complete idiots, and thus, they are successfully spinning away negatives and actually driving the narrative.

I hope this is a low point and not the norm, but we can't take anything for granted. I don't ultimately think Trump will win Florida or Ohio, but they are getting way to fucking close. Clinton really needs to barnstorm some universities with joint appearances from Bernie, Warren, and Obama and get the youth vote back locked in. I don't think we'll get back to the high of the post convention period, but I think the take home is that if the youth vote comes home, Clinton wins handily, but if they don't, it'll be a super close race nationally.

I don't think any of us want a close EV race where Trump and the GOP can further delegitimize Clinton as President. Here's to hoping team Clinton gets their shit together and drive the narrative daily like Trump is.

Yeah, I was thinking earlier today after that QPac poll that maybe the deplorables comment wasn't as bad I had feared, but seeing these polls and the Seltzer poll confirm this is definitely a down beat in her campaign.
 
I also move that we stop calling some of this "diablosing."

99% of this is not diabolsing. It's setting your junk on fire and running around in circles screaming EVERYTHING IS TERRIBLE, while Nickleback plays in the background.
 

Emarv

Member
For instance, I know we have a lot of BoB people on this board still. When 538 shows a 50-50 split tomorrow and the thread goes up in OT, I'm not gonna rush in and explain the EV cushion she has or the weird demographic choices in some of the methodologies.

I want young people to realize that this was always going to be close. It's about 50 until Donald Trump maybe becomes president. Time to get your shit together, America.
 

Boke1879

Member
I also move that we stop calling some of this "diablosing."

99% of this is not diabolsing. It's setting your junk on fire and running around in circles screaming EVERYTHING IS TERRIBLE, while Nickleback plays in the background.

Which one is worse?


Also I do hope Obama gets out there a bit earlier, but only because I miss that man and right now after yesterday he's still in top form and I want to see that as much as possible.
 
Medical:

https://www.buzzfeed.com/kyleblaine...n-about-her-he?utm_term=.timJW1n4L#.scbG3MQgR

Hillary Clinton’s campaign released new information about the Democratic nominee’s health on Wednesday, including the results of a complete physical exam and more details about Clinton’s pneumonia diagnosis.

According to Clinton’s physician, Dr. Lisa Bardack, aside from Clinton’s pneumonia diagnosis, her physical exam was “normal” and she is in “excellent mental condition.”

Clinton received a CT scan on Friday, which resulted in a mild and non-contagious bacterial pneumonia diagnosis, which Clinton is treating with the a 10-day regimen of the medication Levaquin. “She is recovering well with antibiotics and rest. She continues to remain healthy and fit to serve as president of the United States,” Bardack said.

In her most recent physical exam, Clinton had a blood pressure of 100/70, heart rate of 70, and a cholesterol of 189 (LDL of 103, HDL of 56).

The campaign’s disclosure of Clinton’s medical records comes three days after she was videotaped struggling to walk and being assisted into a van as she abruptly exited a 9/11 memorial service in New York City. The campaign later revealed she had been diagnosed with pneumonia last Friday. Clinton has spent the early part of this week recovering at her home in Chappaqua, New York; she is expected to resume campaigning on Thursday.

Bardack, Clinton’s personal physician since 2001 and the chair of internal medicine at Mount Kisco Medical Group, released a detailed summary of the candidate’s health through the campaign on July 28, 2015.

The information released Wednesday afternoon indicates that not much about Clinton’s health condition has changed in the intervening 14 months.She still takes the same two medications regularly, Armor Thyroid and Coumadin, as well as occasional doses of Vitamin B12 and antihistamines, which Clinton said she “upped” last week to “try to break through” her seasonal allergies after suffering a coughing attack on stage.

Clinton’s vitals were also roughly the same as those released last year, with a blood pressure of 100/70 compared to 100/65 in 2015, and a heart rate of 70 compared to 72 in 2015. Her respiratory rate of 18 was the same both years.

Bardack also said Clinton’s vaccinations remained up to date, including Prevnar and Pneumovax, which both help prevent pneumonia.

Campaign aides said they also planned to release medical information about Clinton’s running mate, Tim Kaine, the 58-year-old senator from Virginia. His evaluation was conducted by Brian P. Monahan, the attending physician of the U.S. Congress, according to the campaign.
 
Hillary released medical info
In a statement released by the campaign, Clinton’s longtime physician, Dr. Lisa Bardack, who visited with Clinton at her home on Wednesday, says Clinton’s physical exam “was normal and she is in excellent mental condition."


She adds that Clinton, who takes a handful of medications, including for her thyroid, is “recovering well with antibiotics and rest” and that “she continues to remain healthy and fit to serve as President of the United States. A statement released last summer said her "current medical conditions include hypothyroidism and seasonal pollen allergies."

According to the statement released today, Clinton's lab work was normal, she has a blood pressure of 100/70 and has had a normal mammogram and breast ultrasound.

The release of this information comes three days after the Democratic presidential nominee, 68, abruptly left a 9/11 memorial ceremony in New York City. Her campaign initially said her early departure was due to Clinton being “overheated.” However after video surfaced showing the former secretary of state struggling to walk, the campaign then revealed she had been diagnosed with pneumonia on Friday.

The statement released today says a chest CT scan was performed on Clinton last Friday, the results of which revealed pneumonia. The statement says this is a non-contagious bacterial pneumonia and that Clinton was treated with Levaquin, which she has been advised to take for 10 days.
http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/hill...rmation-pneumonia-diagnosis/story?id=42094799

Edit: beaten like Hillary on November 8th
 
Also current polling averages actually have Clinton winning 347 EVs.

But yes let's all keep freaking out man.

I mean, you can keep talking about averages, but current state polls are only trending one way at the moment, and until(if) that subsides, losing ones shit seems a bit reasonable to me.
 
I also move that we stop calling some of this "diablosing."

99% of this is not diabolsing. It's setting your junk on fire and running around in circles screaming EVERYTHING IS TERRIBLE, while Nickleback plays in the background.

......That sounds like a normal Sunday for Browns fans. So we should just call it Browning? Clevlanding? Manzieling?
 

Maxim726X

Member
Today has been a bad day for polling where we had two swing state polls where Trump was up big and a national poll where Clinton was up big. We have not seen something like that for Trump in swing state polls in a while. So yes, it has been one bad day out of a relatively stable few weeks.

Exactly one month ago, Trump had a 10% chance of winning the election. It's now 36%. According to 538

Exactly one month ago, RCP had Clinton 6.8 points ahead. Now, she is 2.3 points ahead.

What are you talking about?
 
Exactly one month ago, Trump had a 10% chance of winning the election. It's now 36%. According to 538

Exactly one month ago, RCP had Clinton 6.8 points ahead. Now, she is 2.3 points ahead.

What are you talking about?

Oh, I just noticed your avatar. I'm not doing this again with you. Sorry!
 
Folks, stop aggressively trying to discredit polls you don't like to see. They could be outliers, or they could be short-term trends that will dissipate, or they could be very accurate which would mean you're deluding yourselves by ignoring meaningful data.

It is absolutely possible that Trump is polling better nationally than he has been, and that he's doing better than usual in key swing states. If you want to do something productive about it then join the Clinton campaign in some capacity. If not, then stop checking political threads for a while and hope it gets better in a few weeks.

yeah, I will be phone banking for her in a few days. But the last few weeks has been upsetting me really bad.
 
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