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PoliGAF 2016 |OT10| Jill Stein Inflatable Love Doll

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The focus on negative advertising against Trump has been effective, though. Even during a bad period for Hillary where she's shedding support, it's not people going to Trump. He has been well defined, and there is a clear ceiling on his support. Now it's just a matter of turning out votes for Hillary.

An emphasis on policy will dovetail with the debates. I would imagine you'll see a number of ads with clips from the first debate where Clinton is discussing populist ideas. Hillary has a lot of weapons to use in the GOTV campaign. Let me put it this way, Gary Johnson won't end up with 13% of the popular vote.

I would be willing to bet that the 3rd party candidate gets the most votes (as a percentage) that they have ever gotten in this election. I know many Obama voters here in Ohio that completely plan to vote for him, and unless Hillary makes a big change with these voters (only done with positive messaging) they will stay that way, and probably give ohio to trump.
 
It must be so frustrating to be the Clinton campaign right now. Opponent can say all the most vile stuff but oh no, got sick and called out racists, and it's the worst weekend ever. To also try and show everything, reveal all records reasonably while your opponent just makes stuff up and gets away with it.

I feel like at this point it's the easier (and the cowards way out) to just accept Trump won until Nov. 8 says otherwise and be pleasantly surprised. Hope no one wanted to be optimistic about politics this year.
 
???

Where???

"The whole place is – not only the water, the water is what – what they did with the water is horrible, but the crime rate and all the other problems they have and people want to see – you know when I use the expression, I say what do you have to lose? I'm going to fix it. I'm going to fix it. What do you have to lose? And I'll tell you the audience was fantastic," Trump said. "But she was so nervous. She was like a nervous mess, and so I figured something – I figured something was up, really.”

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/09/trump-flint-pastor-faith-green-timmons-228193
 

Diablos

Member
Oh yes, this will go over well.
Just like his candidacy right. I can just see Speaker Ryan saying he doesn't agree but republicans must respect the president and the will of the people! And so many other spineless republicans jumping on that bandwagon
 

Tarkus

Member
What will the October Surprise be? Did you guys forget there is a sniper waiting in the shadows of the Ecuadorian Embassy in London? He's been carving "HRC" into his digital bullets for sometime now, waiting to strike.
 
To be clear, we're talking about the highly credible alleged sex offender overstaying his welcome embassy withholding details of Russian-Syrian bank transactions? He's going to become one of the Second Amendment people?
 
Good, the negative ads have done their job. She now needs to get people to WANT to vote for her. A positive message and focusing on a uplifting message will help that and give people a more positive impression of her.

Obama, the political hype man, will help a lot. And unlike Hillary, the media cannot ignore the president when he talks.
 

Bowdz

Member
Hillary needs to cut a few ads with Obama and Bernie making direct, positive pitches for Clinton based on her policy and character. The Dems have star firepower that absolutely paid off during the Dem convention and they need to bust it out widescale again.

Also, Clinton can get her positive message covered by doing two things: announcing new policy and campaigning with high profile surrogates. With regards to marijuana decriminalization, I think she should do it because it's the right policy and it'd get a broader speech in the news, not because it'd pander to young voters. Throw it into a broad policy speech about criminal justice reform. She should always have a couple of joint campaign events each week with either Obama, Biden, Michelle, Warren, Bernie or superstar surrogates like Beyonce and Oprah. That shit will break through and it can all be positive.
 

"Well, I was in Flint yesterday and it was a very interesting experience and got unbelievably good treatment from people, I must say, and even in that audience, the treatment was great

...

"I mean, everyone plays their games. It doesn't bother me. I'll tell you what made me feel good, the audience was saying let him speak, let him speak, and the audience was so great and these are mostly African-American people,..."


Least racist person you'll ever meet y'all.
 
"Well, I was in Flint yesterday and it was a very interesting experience and got unbelievably good treatment from people, I must say, and even in that audience, the treatment was great

...

"I mean, everyone plays their games. It doesn't bother me. I'll tell you what made me feel good, the audience was saying let him speak, let him speak, and the audience was so great and these are mostly African-American people,..."


Least racist person you'll ever meet y'all.

Benjy Sarlin ‏@BenjySarlin 21m21 minutes ago
Trump: Black pastor attacked me, congregation defended me

Real life: Congregation heckled me, pastor quieted them

Serial liar.
 

Maledict

Member
I would be willing to bet that the 3rd party candidate gets the most votes (as a percentage) that they have ever gotten in this election. I know many Obama voters here in Ohio that completely plan to vote for him, and unless Hillary makes a big change with these voters (only done with positive messaging) they will stay that way, and probably give ohio to trump.

Um, Without wanting to sound insulting I think you need to go check up on some previous election results.

Perot got 18% of the vote in 1992. Wallace got 13% of ther vote in 68. College got 16% in 24. Roosevelt got 27% in 1912 (and got more votes than the Republican Party!).

The system doesn't change because ther system is built around and for two parties - no voting at the presidential level will ever change that fundamental fact. And there is absolutely no way on heaven hell or earth that Johnson or Stein approaches the numbers above - they would even hit 5% on the day.
 
I honestly don't know what this means lol.

1324596542030_7713053.png

.
 

HylianTom

Banned
Now see, I look at this and wonder how in the world is the race so close on a national level.

In no way can Hillary only be down 7 in Texas and only be +2 nationally. 7 is less than half of what Romney did in 2012 (16%).
I don't believe for one moment that Obama's approval rating is higher in Texas than it is in Ohio and Florida.

Something is off.
 
Um, Without wanting to sound insulting I think you need to go check up on some previous election results.

Perot got 18% of the vote in 1992. Wallace got 13% of ther vote in 68. College got 16% in 24. Roosevelt got 27% in 1912 (and got more votes than the Republican Party!).

The system doesn't change because ther system is built around and for two parties - no voting at the presidential level will ever change that fundamental fact. And there is absolutely no way on heaven hell or earth that Johnson or Stein approaches the numbers above - they would even hit 5% on the day.

Maybe I should have said recent elections. I still feel that Johnson this year will get many more votes than people are thinking this year, unless Hillary switches of too a much more positive message.
 
I don't believe for one moment that Obama's approval rating is higher in Texas than it is in Ohio and Florida.

Something is off.

The poll was offered in Spanish, would that effect it? There's no numbers given beyond this
From September 1-11, 2016, The Texas Lyceum conducted a
statewide telephone survey of adult citizens. The survey utilized a stratified
probability sample design, with respondents being randomly selected at the
level of the household. The survey also employed a randomized cell phone
supplement, with 40 percent of completed interviews being conducted
among cell phone only or cell phone dominant households. A Spanish language
instrument was developed and bilingual interviewers offered
respondents a chance to participate in English or Spanish. On average,
respondents completed the interview in 19 minutes. Approximately 6,100
records were drawn to yield 1,000 completed interviews. The final data set
is weighted by race/ethnicity, age and gender to achieve representativeness
as defined by the Texas Department State Health Services 2016 population
projections. The overall margin of error for the poll is +/- 3.1 percentage
points.

Also a decent chunk of the poll was done via cell phone. Date range includes both deplorables and illness.

Is there a ticking time bomb of Hispanic support for Hillary that just isn't being polled enough due to the language barrier?
 

thebloo

Member
Pffff oh wow, that swing between RVs and LVs

I mean, if you're a Dem in Texas, would you really feel that you Presidential vote matters?


I haven't seen a single positive Hillary ad

This is the "I don't know any Hillary supporters" of the primary? Go look on her channel, there's been a bunch. Adam also mentioned a few running on TV.
 

iammeiam

Member
He also brings up reality's liberal bias and invokes Benghazi because of course he does:
“This isn't a one-time thing. It's time and time again. … There's the lies, and the lies about the lies, and then there's the lies about the lies that were lied about,” Trump Jr. said before arguing that some of the former secretary of State's lies “have cost people their lives.”

When asked for an example, Trump Jr. said, “I'd say talking about Benghazi, inaction in Benghazi (where four Americans died in attacks by Islamic militants in 2012). … I think (lying) after the fact is a big enough deal in a situation like that when you have Americans abroad.”

Trump Jr.'s father has not had a great track record in telling the truth on the campaign trail, according to the Pulitzer Prize-winning fact-check website PolitiFact. The website has investigated about 250 claims Trump and Clinton each made. The website found that his claims, 70 percent of the time, were found to be at least mostly false or worse, while hers were false or mostly false 28 percent of the time.

“I would argue that PolitiFact is a very liberal organization,” Trump Jr. said.

At this point I'm just going to be annoyed that Cosmo isn't conducting every interview with the Trump kids.
 
A lot of young people seem legitimately confused about this election. I've heard a surprising number of people talk about how they're voting for Bernie in the GE since he's an Independent or that he's running a write-in campaign or whatever they heard in a fever dream the night before.

This type of confusion usually isn't a problem with young people because they're generally okay with voting for the dem candidate, but for whatever reason we've got people not really tuned in with politics straight up dreaming alternatives to voting for Hillary.
 

HylianTom

Banned
The poll was offered in Spanish, would that effect it? There's no numbers given beyond this


Also a decent chunk of the poll was done via cell phone. Date range includes both deplorables and illness.

Is there a ticking time bomb of Hispanic support for Hillary that just isn't being polled enough due to the language barrier?
I've wondered about Spanish-speaking voters being underrepresented (especially in certain states' polls), but that's someone we won't get a conclusion on until maybe after Election Day.

This is just nuts. I thought 2012's polls were all over the place, but this year's is even crazier. There's something for everyone to enjoy, or to puzzle over.


Also: Bernie and Warren are blitzing Ohio soon.
 
David Plouffe ‏@davidplouffe 7m7 minutes ago
That moment on Jan 20 when newly sworn in President Clinton walks by the overpriced Trump hotel on PA Ave during her parade. Motivation.

Brutal.

Looks like the Trump pastor comments are gaining some traction.
 
I've wondered about Spanish-speaking voters being underrepresented (especially in certain states' polls), but that's someone we won't get a conclusion on until maybe after Election Day.

This is just nuts. I thought 2012's polls were all over the place, but this year's is even crazier. There's something for everyone to enjoy, or to puzzle over.

Just this week we had two Ohio polls, one showed Hillary +7 (YouGov), then the next day, another showed Trump +5 (CNN).

Weird polling all around. Even the primary polls seemed kind of off this year.

Brutal.

Looks like the Trump pastor comments are gaining some traction.

Good. Trump gets hurt VERY badly when he starts harassing minority civilians
 
I really wanted to believe Ivanka was a good person and not like her dad, and maybe deep-down she is, but after seeing her constantly lie these recent weeks I think it's more likely she is just another Trump; a shameless, lying, ignorant clown living in a fantasy world. Hard to avoid when you grow up as a Trump, I guess.
 
Now see, I look at this and wonder how in the world is the race so close on a national level.

In no way can Hillary only be down 7 in Texas and only be +2 nationally. 7 is less than half of what Romney did in 2012 (16%).

Why is the race this close anyway? For someone that is liberal; this should be a slam dunk considering that Trump is basically is a racist.

I guess, is that an overwhelming of white Americans whom are Republican, so for some reason they have to vote for a Republican even if they don't want to. Young Americans regardless, of race are apolitical and aren't excited as they were for Obama; they don't really like either candidate, but slightly prefer Hillary( mostly from minorities and mainly liberal white Americans). Minorities largely disapprove of Trump, probably some of the reasons he is stuck in the low 40s and high 30s.

The support for Clinton does not seem to have a rigged ceiling like Trump as it can be from 40-50+, but the support largely comes from people voting against Trump and not necessary for Hillary. If Hillary has a really bad week her support drops a lot, but it might recover. Donald Trump''s support has good and bad qualities it is very rigged not really pushing through from the low 40s and high 30s, but he can say stupid shit, but not lose support much because around 38ish - 42ish will continue to support him. Attacks on his racism and bigotry works, but it does not give much reason to support Hillary for some.

But it is interesting that Trump is down in nearly ALL demographics. I wonder if polls are now just more to do with general support, not necessary intention of who they will vote for( Johnson is not going to get like 13%), it might explain why Hillary swings from low-mid 40s to high 40s( in H2H at least).
 
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