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PoliGAF 2016 |OT10| Jill Stein Inflatable Love Doll

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M

metalslimer

Member
PlayALLtheGames said:
I really wanted to believe Ivanka was a good person and not like her dad, and maybe deep-down she is, but after seeing her constantly lie these recent weeks I think it's more likely she is just another Trump; a shameless, lying, ignorant clown living in a fantasy world. Hard to avoid when you grow up as a Trump, I guess.
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I mean a good person wouldn't push aside their own beliefs just to support their dad because of that reason.
 
M

Mighty Chin

Banned
So that whole Trump fiasco last week over the number of Veteran suicide deaths. I posted a comment on on an article. It got like 4K likes. YUGE Likes.

This Vet who refuses to acknowledge that there is a new updated number he tells me to go Kill Myself repeatedly. This dissconect is astounding.

So I guess someone reported him to FB. He got a reprinand I guess. He came back into the comment section and did it again.

If this guy is smarter someone will track down where he works and forward his comments to his boss.
 
Z

Zukkoyaki

Member
B-Dubs said:
Either the CNN numbers from Florida and Ohio are messed up or this is just wrong. I literally cannot see a universe where this is real and Florida comes down to the wire. The polls from the last few days are just madding.
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This isn't the first Texas poll to be that close either. As far as I can tell, no other pollster has Trump doing as well as CNN. Might be something to keep in mind in the coming weeks.

Edit: That's not to write off CNN polls, they're a big deal. But it's impossible to deny they've been friendlier than everyone else to him.
 
C

cartoon_soldier

Member
If Clinton doesn't do well, actually isn't declared the clear cut winner it will be trouble. Trump's expectations are at an all time low so all he has to do is show up and not lose it.
 
B

balladofwindfishes

Member
kirblar said:
I think people are tuned out again. I know I am. Wait until the debates.
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You kind of have to. If you don't you drive yourself insane by deeply analyzing every poll and trying to take in every little thing that's happening in this weird election.

Plumbob said:
why
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I don't think it should be disregarded, but their LV filter leaves out pretty much everyone under the age of 50. That could either imply that turnout for younger people will be absolutely terrible this year, or that CNN's filter isn't set up right. Maybe a bit of both.
 
B

Bowdz

Member
cartoon_soldier said:
If Clinton doesn't do well, actually isn't declared the clear cut winner it will be trouble. Trump's expectations are at an all time low so all he has to do is show up and not lose it.
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Which is why I actually agree with Mark Halperin for once in that team Clinton shoukd not be playing the standard expectations game but rather raise the bar of what is expected on their terms. They need to be hammering the notion that the winner of the debate will be the one who spells out clear policy and demonstrates specifically how they'll get it done. Say that Clinton has already done this and will easily clear the bar at the debate and Trump will falter and not clear the threshold.

It poses some risk if Trump has actually been studying and pulls off a real debate performance, but ultimately, with such a massive disparity in terms of qualifications and policy proposals, Clinton should be raising the bar and setting the expectations for herself and Trump rather than lowering them for both by lowering them for herself. She's better than that.
 
N

noshten

Member
Officerrob said:
Best demographic? They stay at home more than and other age group cycle after cycle. Old people vote
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I don't find young people staying at home surprising, majority of candidates have big problems relating to them and framing their platform in a way that it addresses their needs. Also each generation of young voters have different priorities than the prior one. I believe the 18-34 generation simply better understands the planet they are set to inherit might undergo major changes during their lifetime and they are not in a position where they feel comfortable with their security and prospects. Long term commitments on climate change, getting big money out of politics so humanitarian advances aren't blocked by corporate interests, addressing a justice system which uses the drug war to to further institutionalized racism, being worse off in terms of prospects than their parents, huge debt and little government assistance related to both housing, education and any sort of professional certification, inequality across the board and zip codes determining peoples future, no concrete ideas or policies regarding automation and higher and higher requirements in terms of knowledge and education to get those well paid jobs, being able to afford a house, being able to have a family etc etc.
Clinton simply hasn't done enough on these issues in the way her campaign framed them through her run. For example she was not willing to go left far enough during the primary on issues I believe have widespread support. The Clinton platform incorporated more of Sander's platform before/after the convention but I think they needed to be aggressive with messaging this. For some reason it appeared that any concessions they made to Sanders camp were downplayed which I think didn't help. I think the decision for VP is still questionable - I think her VP slot should have been an attempt to find a person to appeal to young voters and they should have framed it in such a way. Whether it was Sanders, Warren or someone else she needed a person that would have championed some major issue young voters care about.

I kinda of think that the Clinton campaign made a crucial mistake in thinking Trump is enough of a negative to guarantee high voter turnout among her base and attacking him would be enough to assure this happens. I think it simply solidified the usual GOP voters, which was expected(I don't believe Trump stands for anything substantially worse than majority of Republican candidates in the last few cycles). I also think his reality persona and the spectacle around the election is going to get a few people who generally never vote to the booth. I called the GOP a circus throughout the primary and I believe we simply will find out that there is a lot of people that enjoy the circus and wouldn't be interested in voting otherwise. They've found the candidate that speaks to their sensibility and he isn't a "crooked politician". He speaks their language and tells them they are not at fault for their position. Whether it's immigrants and trade agreements taking away their jobs, Hillary and Obama being to blame for all the World's ills, crooked politicians not forcing business to stay in the US, etc It's very easy for Trump just to attack and troll without concrete policies. GOP voters don't care, Reality TV voters don't care and even some people who are voting for his opponent are doing so hesitantly. I had maintained she is a weak candidate but her campaign and the way it drives the media narrative also isn't all that it's cracked out to be.

I think she should have been bold and framed the whole election as an opportunity. We have this crazy guy running for president with no policy at all and here I'm offering bold changes(not incremental). She shouldn't have been offering Obama 2.0 - her campaign should have been trying to push the narrative that a Clinton presidency will be Obama on steroids and that Trump presents an opportunity to reject backwards policy decisions and trickle down economics with a firm stance. Sadly the issues which could have been circumvented by for example Clinton deciding to forgo the speaking tour in the years prior to her 2016 run. Or taking a more low key stance on fundraising especially after it became clear that she would decimate Trump in both financial and organizational terms. Her insistent twisting on the truth instead of being more forthcoming - allowing things to become an issue instead of being more transparent on a variety of things - which furthered the narrative of her negatives etc.
Hopefully the last week has galvanized her campaign to approach things differently and not get bogged down with the next outrageous comments by Trump. Allowing him to shape the narrative is how he has gotten so far but not offering an alternative yourself just expecting people to grow tired of his BS after over an year of watching him failing to implode is simply not an option. Their focus on him isn't helping them that much and she would be better served to find out why she is losing voters to Stein and Johnson and recalibrate her messaging once more.
 
N

nature boy

Member
CsZvP3iXYAA-jLI.jpg:large


Still shitty medical records.
 
B

balladofwindfishes

Member
Why didn't he just release a letter like that back when he first ran? That reads pretty much just like any other candidate's letter and is in line with what is "normal" for an election.

And it doesn't seem like it was hard for him to release it. Instead he put out a weird letter that had typos and seemed super fake and had issues with phrasing that no doctor would ever use.
 
B

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
nature boy said:
CsZvP3iXYAA-jLI.jpg:large


Still shitty medical records.
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I guess Doctor Spaceman can do something that at least looks professional if he tries hard enough.

balladofwindfishes said:
Why didn't he just release a letter like that back when he first ran? That reads pretty much just like any other candidate's letter and is in line with what is "normal" for an election.

And it doesn't seem like it was hard for him to release it. Instead he put out a weird letter that had typos and seemed super fake and had issues with phrasing that no doctor would ever use.
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giphy.gif
 
R

RustyNails

Member
RCP has a hopium dose this morning. Read the whole thing.

Party Identification Shift May Hobble Trump
Beginning in May 2015, YouGov began surveying the same 5,000 people, and by late August/early September it questioned them for the 13th time, looking for any changes in party identification, the degree to which Clinton and Trump can match Obama and Romney in capturing their partisan bases, and how Independent voters, including Democratic and Republican leaners, say they are intending to vote.

We have divided the 13 surveys into three electoral periods: the pre-nomination campaign period (May to December 2015), the primary electoral period (January to early June 2016) which gave us the two nominees, and the campaign pre-Labor Day (June to early September).
379435_5_.jpg
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These results suggest the Republican ticket is in worse shape than in 2012 because it now has a 9.4 percentage-point gap compared to a six-point gap in 2012. If Hillary Clinton has Obama’s 90 percent of Democrats—and nothing in this data indicates otherwise—she will be hard to beat. Trump would have to win over 60 percent of Independents, and the only times in the modern period where a candidate won over 60 percent of Independents were the landslides of 1972 and 1984, where Richard Nixon and Ronald Reagan won 61 and 63 percent, respectively.

A couple of caveats are worth keeping in mind. The first is that the number of self-identifying Republicans has declined about three percentage points while the pool of Independents has increased about four points. One inference that can be drawn is that this increased cohort of Independents usually votes Republican—and may “come home” to the GOP in the stretch run. This also serves as a reminder of the difference between voters who registered as Independents and truly independent-minded swing voters.

But what about the Democratic side of the equation—and which candidate has the momentum?

379436_5_.jpg
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These data show that over the course of the campaign, Clinton’s percentage of Democrats has declined from 84 to 76, while Trump’s share of Republicans has increased from 68 to 76.

Moreover, Trump has twice as many Democrats (6 percent) as Clinton has Republicans (3 percent), and she is no longer winning Independents. The good news for her is that the gap between Democrats and Republicans is now larger than in 2012.

Breaking the party variable down, Clinton’s problem is not with strong Democrats but, rather, with those who classify themselves as weak Democrats or leaning Democratic.

Going into the last eight weeks of this campaign, the biggest anomaly is the number of voters who claim to be either voting for a third party, are not going to vote, or are undecided.

In January of 2016, we started tracking these people closely. From then until early June, when the major party nominees emerged, that number held steady at about 20 percent. Once it was clear that the choice was between Trump and Clinton, the number jumped. In May, 19 percent of respondents said they weren’t either Trump or Clinton backers. In June, the percentage climbed to 24 and in July and August, it zoomed up to 31 percent. These disaffected Americans were evenly divided between those who said they were voting third party, those who were undecided between Trump and Clinton, and those who vow to sit this one out.

Given recent electoral experience, this is a very large number. In August of 2012, by way of contrast, the best estimate among experts quoted in the New York Times was that “the actual share of voters who are up for grabs is probably between just 3 percent and 5 percent.
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In sum, it appears that Democrats have an even bigger advantage than they did in 2012 because their margin over Republicans has increased. That’s the good news for Democrats. The bad news is Clinton has not yet sealed the deal with weak and leaning Democrats—and these are voters who are extremely familiar with her and the Clinton brand. Unless and until she reaches Obama’s 90 percent-plus of Democrats in 2012, the race will remain fluid.
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These data show that in early September, Clinton holds a small lead, but it is not conclusive and she will have to firm up her support among Democrats and continue to stay close to Trump among Independents and undecideds in order to win. Trump also has to shore up his Republican Party support and begin to increase his percentage of Independent voters by converting the undecided to him.

Of the two candidates, he has the longer row to hoe.
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So as everyone was predicting, Hillary is having problems with the fidgety democrats, likely Sanders supporters who want a reason to not vote for her. She needs to consolidate the base more, and bring back the Johnson voters into her fold again.
 
J

Joe Shlabotnik

Banned
cartoon_soldier said:
If Clinton doesn't do well, actually isn't declared the clear cut winner it will be trouble. Trump's expectations are at an all time low so all he has to do is show up and not lose it.
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If she gives really bad answers she deserves to lose. She's going to give better answers because she's better. Trump may come out of it looking "good" if he doesn't make any huge blunders but there's nothing to be done about that and it doesn't matter as much as her answers do, anyway
 
B

balladofwindfishes

Member
Plumbob said:
I would honestly believe the way to get Democrats out to the polls would be if they thought we were losing by one point.
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Yea, I think a lot of these third party voters are basically "well, she's going to win anyway, might as well try and send a message"

And those voters will likely wake up a bit if Hillary starts losing.
 
F

Fragamemnon

Member
Plumbob said:
I would honestly believe the way to get Democrats out to the polls would be if they thought we were losing by one point.
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This would also have a side effect of potentially making the media actually cover Trump as a real candidate. Up until now the belief that he can't actually win has driven all the scrutiny on the candidate that is assumed to win.
 
H

HylianTom

Banned
royalan said:
It will be.

But Hillary can't be this giant wad of immobile while exciting people campaign for her.

She. Is. The. Candidate.
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Agree. I really think joint appearances might be the way to go, especially once debates start. She'd still carry the main weight, but the surrogate's sheen rubs-off on her. I'd love to see plenty of moments like this:
https%3A%2F%2Fblueprint-api-production.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fuploads%2Fcard%2Fimage%2F160397%2FAP_16210138094492.jpg
 
A

Abinash117

Member
Bowdz said:
Which is why I actually agree with Mark Halperin for once in that team Clinton shoukd not be playing the standard expectations game but rather raise the bar of what is expected on their terms. They need to be hammering the notion that the winner of the debate will be the one who spells out clear policy and demonstrates specifically how they'll get it done. Say that Clinton has already done this and will easily clear the bar at the debate and Trump will falter and not clear the threshold.

It poses some risk if Trump has actually been studying and pulls off a real debate performance, but ultimately, with such a massive disparity in terms of qualifications and policy proposals, Clinton should be raising the bar and setting the expectations for herself and Trump rather than lowering them for both by lowering them for herself. She's better than that.
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She might do that considering she'll might switch to a positive message. This blogger here thinks she might conceded that one of her strategies did not work.

The Clinton campaign today made a key concession about its analysis of the fundamentals of the race. This concession was made almost in passing, as an afterthought, in a statement released late last night by Clinton communications director Jennifer Palmieri:

One upside to Hillary Clinton’s break from the trail was having time to sharpen the final argument she will present to voters in these closing weeks. So when she rejoins the trail tomorrow, Hillary Clinton will deliver the second in a series of speeches laying out her aspirational vision for the country: that we are “Stronger Together.” Tomorrow’s remarks will focus on what has been at the core of who Hillary Clinton is as a person and the mission of her campaign — how we lift up our children and families and make sure that every child has the chance to live up to their God given potential.

Our campaign readily admits that running against a candidate as controversial as Donald Trump means it is harder to be heard on what you aspire for the country’s future and it is incumbent on us to work harder to make sure voters hear that vision.
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For many months, the Clinton campaign has assumed that Trump’s fundamental operating strategy was deeply flawed. Trump had publicly stated on many occasions, and in various ways, that he would be able to win the White House largely through media dominance alone. Clinton’s advisers conceded Trump’s ability to blot out attention to Clinton, but also projected public confidence that Trump was only hurting himself with this strategy. The basic idea was that all the crazy, depraved, bigoted, and pathologically abusive things Trump said and did to dominate the coverage were also alienating the key voter groups he needed to improve among — college educated whites, especially women; younger voters; and nonwhites, creating limits on his ability to expand his appeal. Your humble blogger also made a version of this argument.
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More recently, in August, Clinton mostly disappeared from the campaign trail to raise money. In the last few days, of course, Clinton was forced to remain out of the public eye by her illness. But now that she’s back on the trail, the campaign is admitting that she needs to do more to break through Trump’s dominance of the media, and to make an affirmative case for her candidacy. That would appear to mean less of an emphasis on simply allowing Trump to romp wildly across the airwaves, and counting on him to continue destroying his appeal in the minds of the voter groups among which he needs to improve and expand.
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https://www.washingtonpost.com/blog...he-has-a-real-problem/?utm_term=.8dcfa6e3063b

I think this what she might do for now on considering that some other notable outlets says that she'll give out speeches mainly about families and an inclusive economy.
 
R

RustyNails

Member
Abinash117 said:
She might do that considering she'll might switch to a positive message. This blogger here thinks she might conceded that one of her strategies did not work.






https://www.washingtonpost.com/blog...he-has-a-real-problem/?utm_term=.8dcfa6e3063b

I think this what she might do for now on considering that some other notable outlets says that she'll give out speeches mainly about families and an inclusive economy.
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I cant believe how I just wished to see a more aspirational Hillary and lo and behold, she's going to be exactly that starting today. Hoping the ads will reflect this too.
 
B

balladofwindfishes

Member
The DNC was 90% about hope, happiness and how great the country is and can be, and it went over very well. Very little of the DNC was actually attacking Trump. The biggest boost in enthusiasm she had seen the entire election came after that (which is normal, but the boost was huge and lasted awhile).

So it's good they're going back to that attitude. It's a contrast to "make America great again" because you can invalidate the entire thing by proving that America is already great.
 
I

ItWasMeantToBe19

Banned
Trump Jr. continues his outreach to The Jews:

Donald Trump Jr. said on Thursday that the media has built up Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton, and that if Republicans acted the way Clinton has, the media would be “warming up the gas chamber” for them.

“The media has been her number one surrogate in this,” the younger Trump told radio host Chris Stigall on 1210 WPHT radio in Philadelphia. “Without the media, this wouldn’t even be a contest, but the media has built her up. They’ve let he slide on every in-discrepancy, on every lie, on every DNC game trying to get Bernie Sanders out of this thing.

“If Republicans were doing that, they’d be warming up the gas chamber right now.”
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https://www.buzzfeed.com/andrewkacz...mber-if-gop-di?utm_term=.yfJdZgDMw#.fh2nR1GKZ
 
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