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PoliGAF 2016 |OT10| Jill Stein Inflatable Love Doll

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J

Jeels

Member
Emarv said:
Either that Texas poll is wrong or it's the most fascinating outlier poll of the fall for me.
Click to expand...

Texas has a huge minority population and lots of expats from the west and east coasts. It also has liberal bastions in the major cities and a blue base along the border. The problem is, not all of these people vote because "lol my vote doesn't matter in Texas". I've heard this from more people than I've heard from people saying they are voting. I know I am speaking anecdotally, but the huge difference in registered voter vs likely voter results completely makes sense to me based on that...(ie if all registered voters actually voted, the race in Texas is actually tight/lean red vs deep red).
 
B

Boke1879

Member
Amazing Trump attacks the pastor and makes up lies about the Church chanting "let him speak".

The crowd was heckling him about discriminating against black tenants. The pastor actually came to his defense on this. And told her crowd that he was a guest and that we will respect him.

But Trump being Trump had to go off the deep end.
 
W

whyamihere

Banned
So my take away is:

- This weekend was obviously very bad for Hillary! More than anything, that seems to have driven this polling slump. Also, Trump is on message and has not said anything stupid. It's going to be a long march to the debates.

- Johnson and Stein voters are hurting Hillary a lot, and she needs to make an active push for them because obviously some of them were Obama voters. Ironically, Hillary doing worse could help here but tbd.

- More than any Obama state, I could see Iowa getting away from Hillary even if she opens up a bigger lead.

- There is a huge enthusiasm gap (which, duh after this weekend) between Dems and the GOP that is killing her in the LV screens even as the RVs aren't that bad.

Ecotic said:
This is probably the inflection point of 2016. Hillary either turns it around now or loses.
Click to expand...

I mean, yes, those are the two options.
 
R

royalan

Member
But we're just diablosing.

Things are shifting, it's palpable.

Team Hillary needs to get it in gear and figure out their strategy.
 
L

Loudninja

Member
Boke1879 said:
Amazing Trump attacks the pastor and makes up lies about the Church chanting "let him speak".

The crowd was heckling him about discriminating against black tenants. The pastor actually came to his defense on this. And told her crowd that he was a guest and that we will respect him.

But Trump being Trump had to go off the deep end.
Click to expand...
Yeah dont really get it at all lol he made it worse for himself for no reason.
 
E

Emarv

Member
Jeels said:
Texas has a huge minority population and lots of expats from the west and east coasts. It also has liberal bastions in the major cities and a blue base along the border. The problem is, not all of these people vote because "lol my vote doesn't matter in Texas". I've heard this from more people than I've heard from people saying they are voting. I know I am speaking anecdotally, but the huge difference in registered voter vs likely voter results completely makes sense to me based on that...(ie if all registered voters actually voted, the race in Texas is actually tight/lean red vs deep red).
Click to expand...
I mean, I'm from Texas and have been on record here multiple times about how important GOTV, particularly in Hispanic communities, could shape what happens in this state and accelerate the trend it's already on. I totally get it.

I just feel like that LV vs RV is a little off. Need more data!
 
S

studyguy

Member
This weekend is gonna be some shit.
Hopefully next week is better.

Debates are almost here, just gotta weather the bedwetting storm for now.
The fact is the only thing I see improving Clinton numbers is for the media to stop using the training wheels on Trump come the debate. I don't see anything hard coming his way before then. Wager it's gonna be shit right up to debate night.

4e7.jpeg
Click to expand...
 
M

mo60

Member
So some right wing media sites are now talking about some poll that shows hilary leading by six in DC. Looking around it looks like google consumer surveys is the only pollster to poll DC and the sample sizes are ridiculously low for every single google consumer survey conducted in DC.
 
M

mo60

Member
whyamihere said:
So my take away is:

- This weekend was obviously very bad for Hillary! More than anything, that seems to have driven this polling slump. Also, Trump is on message and has not said anything stupid. It's going to be a long march to the debates.

- Johnson and Stein voters are hurting Hillary a lot, and she needs to make an active push for them because obviously some of them were Obama voters. Ironically, Hillary doing worse could help here but tbd.

- More than any Obama state, I could see Iowa getting away from Hillary even if she opens up a bigger lead.

- There is a huge enthusiasm gap (which, duh after this weekend) between Dems and the GOP that is killing her in the LV screens even as the RVs aren't that bad.



I mean, yes, those are the two options.
Click to expand...

I think her ground game in Iowa will save her if she opens up a big enough lead nationally. Possibly a 5 point lead at this point.
 
W

whyamihere

Banned
Fwiw, the last Monmouth poll in Iowa had Trump +2. I don't think Hillary has led a poll in a while. Sadly for Dems, this might be the election that transforms Iowa into Missouri.
 
R

royalan

Member
Incognito said:
how bad is Hillary that Obama has a 58% approval rating and she's essentially tied with the Donald. good lord.
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Because Obama isn't running for president.

There's only so much you can do if the person you're stumping for insists on running a quiet campaign and thinking that letting her opponent dominate the airwaves is a good idea.

She's successfully made the case against Trump. Now they need to focus on making the case for her and reaching out to her base. That needs to be priority #1 from here on out.
 
E

Emarv

Member
Test for the media: Now that they've pressured Hillary to release more records and have gotten a fun media story out of Trump, will they just move on and not pressure him to actually release serious medical information?
 
L

Loudninja

Member
Emarv said:
Test for the media: Now that they've pressured Hillary to release more records and have gotten a fun media story out of Trump, will they just move on and not pressure him to actually release serious medical information?
Click to expand...
Yeah they wont like always lol.
 
T

TheLostBigBoss

Banned
Clinton's campaign is being run by Obama's crew, with Obama's infrastructure.

Chiiiiil

Worst case, and I do mean worst case, Clinton is POTUS and they fail to take the senate.
 
P

PBY

Banned
whyamihere said:
To give a clearer picture:

She's up 6 in RVs, then drops to 3 to the 5-way LVs.
Click to expand...

This stuff is instructive, but shes +3. Thats the takeaway; we can't inject hopium into polls, because that's how you get burned.

Trust the polls.

edit: saw your edit, yup makes sense; thought you were making a different point
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
I do think if Clinton wins by 5 points or more she probably ekes out Iowa, but this might be the last time it goes blue in a closeish election.

Saw a politico article about the Senate, Democrats are feeling optimistic about MO and NC it seems. This Kander ad is pretty good.

https://youtu.be/-wqOApBLPio
 
R

royalan

Member
Ziltoidia 9 said:
So a rally and a fund raiser.

Sorry, but this isn't looking good for her.
Click to expand...

I agree.

Not with "isn't looking good" part (she's still on track to win), but the rally and the fundraiser. Hillary is making the safest, most predictable, and thus most easy-to-ignore moves, and she needs to shake that up.

Luckily, this is her first major appearance and speech since her health incident so people will be paying more attention than usual. Make it count, Hill. I don't want to hear a single "temperamentally unfit..."

For fuck's sake, she campaigned harder against Bernie.
 
W

whyamihere

Banned
That University of Mary poll did not include anyone in its LV screen who didn't vote in 2012. Including people who were too young to vote.

Good Nate calling this inexcusable. Inclined to agree.
 
B

BotoxAgent

Member
royalan said:
I agree.

Not with "isn't looking good" part (she's still on track to win), but the rally and the fundraiser. Hillary is making the safest, most predictable, and thus most easy-to-ignore moves, and she needs to shake that up.

Luckily, this is her first major appearance and speech since her health incident so people will be paying more attention than usual. Make it count, Hill. I don't want to hear a single "temperamentally unfit..."

For fuck's sake, she campaigned harder against Bernie.
Click to expand...

Yeah, I she has not done anything impressive in a while. All she's done is reacting and playing defense. Her ground game may be good, but the rest of her campaign is looking like a hot mess
 
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