Agreed. It will make a decent ad tho.
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PoliGAF 2016 |OT10| Jill Stein Inflatable Love Doll
- Thread starter Aaron Strife
- Start date
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Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Doesn't matter. If used correctly in a commercial, it could be extremely damaging. Cut off the audio before the crowd laughs.
Also, Trump called the female pastor from yesterday a "nervous mess."
Is it? I don't see it getting picked apart like the deplorables comment. People are so used to this kind of thing from him that they've become desensitized. That wouldn't matter much if he's not gaining in the polls but he is.
No one cares.
Particle Physicist
between a quark and a baryon
It's not like you can't write whatever date you want on checks. I wouldn't completely dismiss this just because of that.
True outreach.
Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
No, THE MEDIA doesn't care. Like always during this election. Average Joe Voter, though? They'll care. That's why I said if Hillary's team markets this well.
They probably won't. I don't have a sense that they know what they're doing right now as they try to navigate through the fallout from the past month or so.
Crimson_Fate
Member
Because he was clearly having fun with the crowd and joking sarcastically with them. Most people looking at the video recognize that , if the media ran with that clip it would only make trump stronger and enforce the narrative that they were out to get him.
In contrast, when Clinton made her comment it wasn't her joking with the crowd it was a prepared statement.
nature boy
Member
Trump trash talking the pastor who interrupted him.
Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
I, too, am losing faith in this team. There are mountains of material out there, and I just don't think they are being used effectively at this point. Who knows--maybe they have some seriously good stuff ready for the airwave rollout next month.
Honestly - they're the experts. That said, this Trump pivot is real and he isn't gonna implode. The "unfit" angle is fine, but loses steam if Trump is restrained. They need to really get out there with policy.
Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
The "experts" thing is a pointless argument. Most political campaigns are run by "experts." They don't always make the right decisions for the current climate.
In better news:
Good news here, but what it tells me is that excitement among democrats is waning. This absolutely has to be improved before the election. This is also where the ground game is of colossal importance. Trump's supporters are rabid--they'll vote no matter what. Hillary's ground game needs to be strong (and it appears it will be) so they can get these people to voting booths.
Missouri legislature overturned the governor's veto on voter id laws. So they are joining the stupid train citing voter fraud.
This cry against imaginary voter fraud is super loud and trying to drown out the actual voter fraud the GOP is committing by doing all they can to limit someone's right to vote.
I can't with them anymore.
This cry against imaginary voter fraud is super loud and trying to drown out the actual voter fraud the GOP is committing by doing all they can to limit someone's right to vote.
I can't with them anymore.
I think it's unfair to criticse them for this.
There is a vast wealth of material out there. Trump commits wildly publicised gaffes on a weekly basis that would kill other campaigns - and they just don't do much. He has a solid 40% voting basis that honestly doesn't seem to care what he says or does, and then an additional 5% or so of wavering republican voters who drift away when he does something truly appalling but then come home after a week or so.
Plus she is airing vast amount of adverts highlighting all this stuff in the key battleground states. It's not like the campaign is silent - adverts with the disability mocking, the khans, and all the other stuff are on the air all the time - they are spending serious,mysterious cash trying to keep his numbers down. Personally I'd be interested on what % of their adverts and spend is on positive stuff rather than attacking Trump - from the outside it seems like there's a risk that Hillarys campaign is seen entirely through the lense of 'not trump', and even though we know that's rubbish and she vast amounts of policy proposals I'm curious how much of that is being pushed.
(I do think it grossly unfair that no-one covers Clintons policies at all, yet Trump comes up with a half baked maternity plan and it gets lots of coverage. Talk about grading on a curve!)
- Roll out some policy that gets young people/non-LV Dems more excited to vote for Hillary
- Chip away hard at the "Hillary is dishonest/untrustworthy" narrative with hard actions.
That's key. I'm sure they have a lot of ammo on Trump but hard to believe it's going to be much worse than what he has already said publicly (unless Obama forces the tax returns out).
SOURCES: Trump Wants Peter Thiel On The Supreme Court http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry...me-court_us_57d80d57e4b09d7a687f9b03?section=
If he wins...
If he wins...
I saw the Upshot updated its election odds, and that Clinton is still at 78%. It harkens back to this analysis from the Washington Post last year:
For the GOP candidate to get an Electoral College win in 50% of all simulations, he must win the popular vote by almost 1.5%. By a decent margin, a popular vote tie now favors the Democrat due to distribution of population in relation to electoral vote distribution.
That said, I'm hiiighly skeptical that it'll end-up this tight. I still think she wins by a 2012-ish margin.
..
Thiel? The kook who lamented women getting the right to vote? Great.
For the GOP candidate to get an Electoral College win in 50% of all simulations, he must win the popular vote by almost 1.5%. By a decent margin, a popular vote tie now favors the Democrat due to distribution of population in relation to electoral vote distribution.
That said, I'm hiiighly skeptical that it'll end-up this tight. I still think she wins by a 2012-ish margin.
..
Thiel? The kook who lamented women getting the right to vote? Great.
nature boy
Member
Rassssssss Trump+2 42/40
Officerrob
Banned
Senate Republicans would shit their pants
shinra-bansho
Member
Why are you all surprised that young people are stupid? Have you not met young people?
It will boil down to turnout. Obama overcame his polling woes because his voters wanted to vote for him. Anyone can answer a poll stating they prefer Hillary over Trump but they have to show up on 11/8. Hillary isn't doing much to inspire confidence that she can connect with enough of them. I don't know how she can overcome it completely by November.
Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
darkstar0155
Member
IMO, Hillary needs to stop just saying "trump sucks" and start promoting herself. Her numbers went up after the DNC because it was a positive message for the most part. All she does (in the general public's eyes) is bash trump. I haven't seen a single positive Hillary ad yet. She can keep attacking him, but that's not enough. You have to give people a reason to want to vote for you. All her negative ads and messaging are doing anymore are getting swing voters to support Johnson. You have to give them a reason to vote for you, not just against the other guy. Hopefully the debates will help here.
Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Yes, absolutely. The problem, though, is that even when she promotes her own plans, the media doesn't cover them (e.g., her release of a college plan which got zero airtime, while Trump's paid maternity leave thing got all the airplay).
balladofwindfishes
Member
This.
She needs to promote her policies and herself. I still think she'd benefit greatly from a mid-late October 30 min promo ad like Obama did highlighting her and her policies.
darkstar0155
Member
Yep, but she needs to keep talking about it, release press reports about it to the media. Keep talking about it loudly, get some ads about it. From my view she will will release a plan once, than sorta move on.
Im a student with huge student debt, so the college plan is something I would greatly pay attention to. I pay attention to politics very much, and I didn't even know she released a new college plan lately.
Yep, that will def. help but it may be too late. Obama ran an entire campaign on a positive message, so he was already seen in a positive light.
RustyNails
Member
Come to think of it, I havent seen a single Hillary positive ad. All her ads are of Trump making a fool of himself.
This is part of why I'm a fan of the last-minute primetime infomercial, maybe in the final week before Election Day. She can bring her surrogates aboard, and sure, they can bash Trump a bit.. but the bulk could be all about her plans. It's pretty clear that the American public liked what they saw when they got a direct look at this kind of thing back in July, so I'd say it's worth trying again. If it bumps her a point or two, it'd be well worthwhile.
It'll likely be her best bet on bypassing this bullshit media filter that's clearly in effect.
(Hell, if she has the money, do two infomercials in October.)
Stupid compared to whom, it's still the best age demographic for dems. If Young people are stupid what do we make of the older voters. But yeah sure throw young people under the bus after they chose the other candidate in the primary overwhelmingly.
darkstar0155
Member
Are there any? Maybe one or two around the convention. The negative ads have done their job, peoples views on trump are locked in. I'm not saying remove all negative ads, but she needs to start heavily promoting/marketing her own positive message.
shinra-bansho
Member
No one actually cares about policy though. They just like to say they care. She can talk about mental health access plans or college affordability plans or whatever plans.
But she coughed. Is she dying?
But she coughed. Is she dying?
Officerrob
Banned
Best age demographic? They stay at home more than any other age group cycle after cycle while old people actually vote. I wish young people pretended to give a shit in non presidential elections
They're stupid with a streak of bitter and vindictive. It's those last two qualites that will drive them to the polling places.
shinra-bansho
Member
They don't even vote. I don't care who they voted for in the primary. The primary was over ages ago no one cares about it anymore except for weird obsessive weirdos. They're stupid in general.
Why are you under the impression that I think old people aren't stupid.
Why are you under the impression that I think old people aren't stupid.
She comes out pro weed people will talk
Catchpenny
Member
The focus on negative advertising against Trump has been effective, though. Even during a bad period for Hillary where she's shedding support, it's not people going to Trump. He has been well defined, and there is a clear ceiling on his support. Now it's just a matter of turning out votes for Hillary.
An emphasis on policy will dovetail with the debates. I would imagine you'll see a number of ads with clips from the first debate where Clinton is discussing populist ideas. Hillary has a lot of weapons to use in the GOTV campaign. Let me put it this way, Gary Johnson won't end up with 13% of the popular vote.
An emphasis on policy will dovetail with the debates. I would imagine you'll see a number of ads with clips from the first debate where Clinton is discussing populist ideas. Hillary has a lot of weapons to use in the GOTV campaign. Let me put it this way, Gary Johnson won't end up with 13% of the popular vote.
Cesare Borgia
Banned
Third party candidates always out-perform their actual election day results in polls. Johnson received 1% in 2012, around 4% in his home state iirc; I could see him receiving 2-3% of the total vote nationally this time, given the two major party candidates. Jill Stein is a joke and will simply match her 2012 results (500k or so iirc).
It's amazing watching the media pretend like Johnson is really going to get 10% of the vote.
Abinash117
Member
Possibly one of the reasons he has not still gone up by much he is still in the 40-44 range for the most part. Hillary support just went down.
Joe Shlabotnik
Banned
Yes, suddenly coming out pro-legalization will look totally sincere and not calculated and pandery. Young voters will completely believe she intends to follow through once she's in office.
balladofwindfishes
Member
nature boy
Member
Lot of campaign strategists in here.
Nazgul_Hunter
Member
Eh she can say she had some treatment with it during her recent illness
Also! Legalizing weed is an objectively positive thing, particularly for the coalition she needs to win . Easier to play off rather than an issue with arguable sides.
shinra-bansho
Member
She's already pandered about weed to stoner hippies by saying she'll reschedule it.
But no one cared, because it was a policy.
But no one cared, because it was a policy.
balladofwindfishes
Member
She has a reputation with young voters that she just changes her views at a whim to get votes. She probably shouldn't reinforce that reputation by doing exactly what they say she does.Eh she can say she had some treatment with it during her recent illness
Also! Legalizing weed is an objectively positive thing, particularly for the coalition she needs to win . Easier to play off rather than an issue with arguable sides.
Oh, schedule two. Woopdie doo.
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