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PoliGAF 2016 |OT10| Jill Stein Inflatable Love Doll
- Thread starter Aaron Strife
- Start date
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balladofwindfishes
Member
It's another poll of Hillary just losing enough support to give Trump the edge. Trump hasn't changed in this poll
Which means voters aren't going to Trump, they're just leaving Hillary. Which means they can come back to Hillary.
Ziltoidia 9
Member
I expected starting yesterday until next Monday being really bad poll wise. The country hasn't ever seen a major candidate faint like that before. Then, the unclearness making it seem like a shady cover up. It won't have a 15 or 20% effect, but sometimes 5% can be a huge deal.
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
Hillary should start talking more about full amnesty and getting all lead out of black communities to fire people up again.
Chezzymann
Member
$10 shillary was paid big bucks to mention madam secretary
TheChocoboCadet
Banned
This. We're mostly all democrats here, but Romney being President wouldn't have been some sort of global disaster. As much as we like to villianize him, Romney, like most people who run for President, was a well-intentioned guy who genuinely believed he could make the world a better place. Did we disagree with his methods and morals? Sure we did! But Romney (and again, most presidential candidates) had the intelligence and comprehension skills to run the country.
Trump is a global disaster. Trump could literally destabilize the entire planet because he's a narcissist idiot. Remember, we're currently seeing Trump restrained. Trump as President doesn't need to appeal to voters. President Trump = Primary Trump. He can say whatever the hell is on his mind without feeling immediate consequences. Just one bad day with a President Trump, and war could ignite over something incredibly stupid action.
I don't normally pay attention to politics too much, but this year is different. This year there's reason to freak out this year. I'm young. I have a good life right now. The next 50 years of my life could be completely upended in a President Trump scenario. It's terrifying. I probably won't begin panicking unless polls look bad after the 2nd debate, but I can easily understand why people in this thread are afraid. It's a scary time.
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
I don't think Trump has many viable paths to the presidency. Suppose that Clinton's LV numbers are still being boosted by using Obama's figures as a baseline - that counts for about 1.2% nationally (and only for some pollsters; some are using e.g. 2004's demographics precisely to try and avoid that problem, although I think that goes too far in correction). The NYT estimates 3% to 5% genuine swing voters, which is below 2012's 7% but in line with general trends. We'll call it 4%, say Clinton is winning half now, and only wins a quarter later. That's 1% gone, for 2.2% total. Say as well that turnout uniformly drops across Democrats (rather than just in specific demographics as per the 1.2% earlier) by 2%, which is quite heavy in addition with the assumptions above, and detracts 1% from her nationally again. We've only managed to knock 3.2% off her performance. That gives you this:
which is still a Clinton presidency. The easiest path to the Presidency for Trump from this near-worst timeline map is to take either New Hampshire or Maine, based on the demographics Trump does well with - NH for an outright win, Maine to take it to the House of Representatives. I don't think there's anything else in realistic range unless we're talking literal Clinton-discovered-with-the-skeletons-of-her-enemies territory. So there's maybe two viable paths and they're a stretch even by worst timeline standards - you'd need much heavier Democratic disillusionment than we have at the moment.
It's not really the Presidency that is worrying, but the Senate. If the above map did happen, you'd have a lame duck Clinton presidency. All of her policies would be essentially worthless unless they could be implemented via executive order, which is... very few of them. Given the state of direction of the two parties, it'd be perhaps the most gridlocked two years (at least!) in the last century of American politics - can you envision a bill coming out of a Republican legislature that Clinton wouldn't straight out veto? So I'm still more worried about the downticket. I'm standing by my statement that Clinton actually needs to have a national presence and not stick to little local rallies. For all the criticism of my "poor judgement", I think the news from Ohio leaves me vindicated. She can leave the ground game 'til later, she's already well ahead of Trump in terms of infrastructure and there's some pretty severe diminishing returns kicking in there.
Right now, I think she needs to be reaching out to minorities and young people. There aren't really swing voters in this election. It'll be won on who can rally the base better. And that means appealing to voters who are borderline between voting Democrat/not voting at all (or voting third party). The critical groups in that respect for the Democrats have to be minorities and young people - the Obama coalition. If she can rally that group, combine that with consistent Democrat voters who don't really need outreach to be rallied, then she's got the Senate. Start buttering up to Sanders, start making prominent appearances with Warren, cling to Obama like a barnacle to a hull, hold press conferences where you just talk about your policies and get questioned on them, seize the narrative.
The pneumonia is unfortunate insofar as it has stopped her doing this, but you can't really do anything about pneumonia; what's happened has happened and hopefully she recovers as quickly as possible.
Deplorables comment doesn't help. She still thinks she can enthuse people by pointing out how bad Trump is. That'd work if everyone was homo economicus and rationally picked the utility-maximizing candidate, but that's not actually how people work. She needs to enthuse people by talking about how awesome she is. Like, I think she'd do better if she did to Trump what she did to Sanders in the primary: totally ignore him. Don't give him airspace, don't discuss his ideas, don't talk about his failings. Just talk about yourself and your own policies. It simultaneously gets the word out about her and steals media oxygen from Trump. I think he and his base thrive on being attacked. They love it, they welcome liberal anguish. It gets them out of the bed in the mornings and it'll take them to the polling station in the evenings. Just ignore them.
which is still a Clinton presidency. The easiest path to the Presidency for Trump from this near-worst timeline map is to take either New Hampshire or Maine, based on the demographics Trump does well with - NH for an outright win, Maine to take it to the House of Representatives. I don't think there's anything else in realistic range unless we're talking literal Clinton-discovered-with-the-skeletons-of-her-enemies territory. So there's maybe two viable paths and they're a stretch even by worst timeline standards - you'd need much heavier Democratic disillusionment than we have at the moment.
It's not really the Presidency that is worrying, but the Senate. If the above map did happen, you'd have a lame duck Clinton presidency. All of her policies would be essentially worthless unless they could be implemented via executive order, which is... very few of them. Given the state of direction of the two parties, it'd be perhaps the most gridlocked two years (at least!) in the last century of American politics - can you envision a bill coming out of a Republican legislature that Clinton wouldn't straight out veto? So I'm still more worried about the downticket. I'm standing by my statement that Clinton actually needs to have a national presence and not stick to little local rallies. For all the criticism of my "poor judgement", I think the news from Ohio leaves me vindicated. She can leave the ground game 'til later, she's already well ahead of Trump in terms of infrastructure and there's some pretty severe diminishing returns kicking in there.
Right now, I think she needs to be reaching out to minorities and young people. There aren't really swing voters in this election. It'll be won on who can rally the base better. And that means appealing to voters who are borderline between voting Democrat/not voting at all (or voting third party). The critical groups in that respect for the Democrats have to be minorities and young people - the Obama coalition. If she can rally that group, combine that with consistent Democrat voters who don't really need outreach to be rallied, then she's got the Senate. Start buttering up to Sanders, start making prominent appearances with Warren, cling to Obama like a barnacle to a hull, hold press conferences where you just talk about your policies and get questioned on them, seize the narrative.
The pneumonia is unfortunate insofar as it has stopped her doing this, but you can't really do anything about pneumonia; what's happened has happened and hopefully she recovers as quickly as possible.
Deplorables comment doesn't help. She still thinks she can enthuse people by pointing out how bad Trump is. That'd work if everyone was homo economicus and rationally picked the utility-maximizing candidate, but that's not actually how people work. She needs to enthuse people by talking about how awesome she is. Like, I think she'd do better if she did to Trump what she did to Sanders in the primary: totally ignore him. Don't give him airspace, don't discuss his ideas, don't talk about his failings. Just talk about yourself and your own policies. It simultaneously gets the word out about her and steals media oxygen from Trump. I think he and his base thrive on being attacked. They love it, they welcome liberal anguish. It gets them out of the bed in the mornings and it'll take them to the polling station in the evenings. Just ignore them.
DataStream
Member
Hilary looking and sounding refreshed in a brief talk with reporters on the plane.
balladofwindfishes
Member
Thank you for some sanity.
nature boy
Member
Clinton's problem is enthusiasm, not her EC path.
Been ruminating on this a lot lately. Just a general question for anyone and everyone: what do you think would be the likelihood of a President Trump engaging in an impeachable activity or action during his presidency? Obviously legal scholars differ on what constitutes an impeachable offense at any given time, so within the bounds of what is commonly understood to be grounds for impeachment.
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
"Impeachable act" is defined as an act that 2/3 of U.S. Senators would remove a president from office for.
Considering how polarized America is right now, there are no impeachable acts.
Not really surprised by the enthusiasm gap showing up in LV screens in all polls.
When the pneumonia news hit on Sunday, plus the video, by far the biggest reaction I saw was panic and depression from every anti-Trump person I know, and even my friends and family in Mexico who have no say in the election.
Even my goddamn peso suffered. One of my reporters practically collapsed at the news, lol. And the Bernie or Buster's on my wall also started posting election-related news for the first time in weeks.
When the pneumonia news hit on Sunday, plus the video, by far the biggest reaction I saw was panic and depression from every anti-Trump person I know, and even my friends and family in Mexico who have no say in the election.
Even my goddamn peso suffered. One of my reporters practically collapsed at the news, lol. And the Bernie or Buster's on my wall also started posting election-related news for the first time in weeks.
BlastProcessing
Member
Hot take: Clinton's Pneumonia is going to end up being a huge boon to her campaign. It gives the media a clear landmark to build a narrative around.
balladofwindfishes
Member
Just a thought I had a bit ago.
George H.W. Bush isn't looking great these days. It's pretty clear he's likely going to die during the next president's term.
But I just can't see Trump being able to be the president when a former president dies. There's certain formalities he needs to do, and a certain professionalism that needs to happen. And would the Bush family even want Trump to speak at Bush's funeral? Certainly anything Trump would say that was positive of George would be completely empty, and everyone would know.
Versus Hillary, who I know, despite her political differences with him, would be able to deliver a professional, honest and proper address when the time comes.
Just these day to day "not ruling the world" type stuff the president needs to do that it feels that Trump is just not able to properly do.
"Hillary's comeback" would be a nice shift in the narrative.
George H.W. Bush isn't looking great these days. It's pretty clear he's likely going to die during the next president's term.
But I just can't see Trump being able to be the president when a former president dies. There's certain formalities he needs to do, and a certain professionalism that needs to happen. And would the Bush family even want Trump to speak at Bush's funeral? Certainly anything Trump would say that was positive of George would be completely empty, and everyone would know.
Versus Hillary, who I know, despite her political differences with him, would be able to deliver a professional, honest and proper address when the time comes.
Just these day to day "not ruling the world" type stuff the president needs to do that it feels that Trump is just not able to properly do.
"Hillary's comeback" would be a nice shift in the narrative.
Yup. She doesn't just need to win, but win big enough to carry to Senate, flesh out the Dem bench, and grow the Dem caucus in the house. Margins matter because they'll help knock out people like Rubio, Burr, and Blunt and give us young up and coming Dems like Kander, Murphy, Masto and Ross. Taking the Senate means controlling the SCOTUS proceedings which is huge. Who knows what the GOP fuckery would be if they held the Senate. If they live up to their promise of not taking up Garland at all, I want Hillary to have the option of nominating someone like Srinivasan or Liu and to be able to ram them though via the nuclear option if necessary.
She needs to win and win relatively big, not just for her, but for the party.
DontBeThatGuy
Member
Well, we're fucked.
balladofwindfishes
Member
If every poll that came out this week were the results of the election, Clinton would be president.
But momentum!
Trump speaking at a Bush funeral would be interesting if only to see live proof of bodies spinning in their caskets pre-burial.
Start meditating bro.
Well, that is the reality that I would fear. Considering the likelihood that the Senate would be Republican-held with a Trump win, it would be terrifying to imagine what sorts of things he could get up to without the threat of removal from office.
Chezzymann
Member
Someone should mod majoras mask and replace the moon with trumps face
DontBeThatGuy
Member
I'm waiting for more state polls, like NH, and I bet we're about to see some more tragic shit.
Joe Shlabotnik
Banned
Depends on public support, as always. It's not like Trump has *enthusiastic* support from nearly any GOP Senators. You could probably find 20 or so to vote for impeachment if the public was pissed off enough.
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
I think it will have very little impact and be forgotten quite quickly. Suppose you think Clinton is better than Trump. Well, given Kaine is much more centrist than Trump, you still prefer Kaine to Trump (if you're an approximately rational voters, we're excluding e.g. Sanders > Biden > Clinton people here). Suppose you think Trump is better than Clinton. You still do. Nothing changed. So nobody is switching votes.
Does it change anyone's enthusiasm? Probably not. I don't like what Clinton represents any more or any less for her having pneumonia. It might excite me or hype me up a bit more as a Republican because she seems "weak" or whatever... except most of them think she was deathly ill anyway. There's not much room for it to happen.
There will be a small fraction of people (probably wavering Democrats/third partyers) who don't vote strictly rationally and will be shook by this, but they're a really small part of the electorate and will probably return anyway when the pneumonia goes away as it inevitably will.
What will have an impact is not the pneumonia, but how badly the Clinton campaign handled it. First it was tired, then overheated, then pneumonia, and every step of the way the Clinton campaign fought the release of any information. It makes her seem untrustworthy, like she had something to hide. If she'd just straight up fronted "I have pneumonia, taking a few days off" nothing would have happened. As it is, it contributes to her general air of inauthenticity. But that's already the dominant narrative for Clinton. So I don't think it will knock her down polling-wise or is responsible for her downward trend; it just makes the job of changing her narrative more difficult for as long as the story persists, and, given how quickly American media moves these days, that's... not very long.
So yeah, I think the main downside of the pneumonia was just that it took more campaign days away from her, although given how ineffectively she's been using them even that might be of small effect.
Wolfgunblood Garopa
Member
With the hyper partisan atmosphere and various strange aspects of this election, I think a lot of people are keeping to themselves. I would imagine this is a difficult time to get any decent polling, especially considering even before this election- we've never seen anything like this shit show- the response rate to polling is less than 1% or something like that.
RustyNails
Member
Omg you chicken littles calm down. We are going through a bad phase right now. Her numbers will start crawling up by late next week after all the panicking about hillary is dead and deplorables stuff is in the rearview mirror. Just freeze yourself for the next 5-7 days.
DontBeThatGuy
Member
I have no faith in this country.
I think Trump winning, getting impeached fast and having Pence in office is the dream scenario for GoP.
NYCmetsfan
Banned
Romney didn't lose because of 47%. The majority of American's agreed with that I believe or share the few point about people on the "dole"
We were able to laugh about unskewed polls and Nate was still considered a God around here during that time.
Plus, Romney wasn't that bad compared to Trump. He was just a rich, out of touch, white flip-flopper with typical GOP talking points.
At least Romney didn't say he that we shouldn't take nuking Europe off the table.
Spoiled Milk
Banned
To be perfectly blunt, as long as she wins and replaces Scalia/RBG/Breyer, my blood pressure over 2020's Presidential stakes plummets.
RustyNails
Member
Stap
Clinton is poised to remove the curtain from Trump Show during the debates, which media has failed to done. I can guarantee you we will have a You're No Jack Kennedy moment.
Clinton is done defining Trump as a racist buffoon. Now she is going to define her candidacy. She had a bumpy start but she will get her message out, which will give the nagsayers a reason to vote FOR her, not against Trump.
Obama and other heavy hitters are starting to roll out. They will make a positive case for her every day.
Finally, she has the groundgame of historic proportions. Trump has nothing. All the LV screening cant help if you go to a wrong precinct or just...forget to vote. 2012 analysis showed that Obama received +3% vote bump with his campaign's gotv effort, which polls do not capture.
Now it remains to be seen how she handles the residual deplorables and health questions without further amplifying them. If she handles them fine, the stories go back into the rightwing media from mainstream media.
And someone for the love of God please dont let Bill Clinton go off script.
NYCmetsfan
Banned
Very confused by this in the IOWA poll
That's really weird.
That's really weird.
NYCmetsfan
Banned
A lot of poligaf remembers 2004. Its survivable if it isn't a trump
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