I don't think Trump has many viable paths to the presidency. Suppose that Clinton's LV numbers are still being boosted by using Obama's figures as a baseline - that counts for about 1.2% nationally (and only for some pollsters; some are using e.g. 2004's demographics precisely to try and avoid that problem, although I think that goes too far in correction). The NYT estimates 3% to 5% genuine swing voters, which is below 2012's 7% but in line with general trends. We'll call it 4%, say Clinton is winning half now, and only wins a quarter later. That's 1% gone, for 2.2% total. Say as well that turnout uniformly drops across Democrats (rather than just in specific demographics as per the 1.2% earlier) by 2%, which is quite heavy in addition with the assumptions above, and detracts 1% from her nationally again. We've only managed to knock 3.2% off her performance. That gives you this:
which is still a Clinton presidency. The easiest path to the Presidency for Trump from this near-worst timeline map is to take either New Hampshire or Maine, based on the demographics Trump does well with - NH for an outright win, Maine to take it to the House of Representatives. I don't think there's anything else in realistic range unless we're talking literal Clinton-discovered-with-the-skeletons-of-her-enemies territory. So there's maybe two viable paths and they're a stretch even by worst timeline standards - you'd need much heavier Democratic disillusionment than we have at the moment.
It's not really the Presidency that is worrying, but the Senate. If the above map did happen, you'd have a lame duck Clinton presidency. All of her policies would be essentially worthless unless they could be implemented via executive order, which is... very few of them. Given the state of direction of the two parties, it'd be perhaps the most gridlocked two years (at least!) in the last century of American politics - can you envision a bill coming out of a Republican legislature that Clinton wouldn't straight out veto? So I'm still more worried about the downticket. I'm standing by my statement that Clinton actually needs to have a national presence and not stick to little local rallies. For all the criticism of my "poor judgement", I think the news from Ohio leaves me vindicated. She can leave the ground game 'til later, she's already well ahead of Trump in terms of infrastructure and there's some pretty severe diminishing returns kicking in there.
Right now, I think she needs to be reaching out to minorities and young people. There aren't really swing voters in this election. It'll be won on who can rally the base better. And that means appealing to voters who are borderline between voting Democrat/not voting at all (or voting third party). The critical groups in that respect for the Democrats have to be minorities and young people - the Obama coalition. If she can rally that group, combine that with consistent Democrat voters who don't really need outreach to be rallied, then she's got the Senate. Start buttering up to Sanders, start making prominent appearances with Warren, cling to Obama like a barnacle to a hull, hold press conferences where you just talk about your policies and get questioned on them, seize the narrative.
The pneumonia is unfortunate insofar as it has stopped her doing this, but you can't really do anything about pneumonia; what's happened has happened and hopefully she recovers as quickly as possible.
Deplorables comment doesn't help. She still thinks she can enthuse people by pointing out how bad Trump is. That'd work if everyone was homo economicus and rationally picked the utility-maximizing candidate, but that's not actually how people work. She needs to enthuse people by talking about how awesome she is. Like, I think she'd do better if she did to Trump what she did to Sanders in the primary: totally ignore him. Don't give him airspace, don't discuss his ideas, don't talk about his failings. Just talk about yourself and your own policies. It simultaneously gets the word out about her and steals media oxygen from Trump. I think he and his base thrive on being attacked. They love it, they welcome liberal anguish. It gets them out of the bed in the mornings and it'll take them to the polling station in the evenings. Just ignore them.
