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PoliGAF 2016 |OT10| Jill Stein Inflatable Love Doll

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R

Rebel Leader

THE POWER OF BUTTERSCOTCH BOTTOMS
Michelle doing some math.
I prefer this is way. It shows how much your vote can do. Stop doing it by state but by States precinct
 
M

mightynine

Member
I'm enjoying how the spin now appears to be "Trump tricked the media into hearing endorsements from decorated heroes!"

So, basically, "He lied! But he got the media, so that's ok!"

Let a Democrat do that and conservatives would be screaming about the death of the free press.
 
N

NYCmetsfan

Banned
Pyrokai said:
Guys........I'm panicking with the new 538 numbers as well as Harry's new article:

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-clintons-electoral-map-isnt-as-good-as-obamas/

Legit shakes.
Click to expand...

Four years ago, Obama defeated Mitt Romney by 3.9 percentage points. But even if the national popular vote had been closer, Obama had a pretty big cushion in the Electoral College. Let’s say the race had been 3.9 percentage points closer and Obama and Romney had tied in the popular vote. So let’s make every state 3.9 points more Republican-leaning. Obama won Pennsylvania, for example, by 5.4 points. After our adjustment, he wins by only 1.5 points. Georgia would go from a 7.8-point Romney win to an 11.7-point one. And so on. If we do this in every state, we find that Obama would still have carried enough states to win the White House.1 If you were to continue to take points away from Obama in the popular vote margin and adjust the state margins accordingly, you’d find that he would have had to lose nationally by 1.5 percentage points to lose the Electoral College.

This exercise — imagining a tied race nationally and then shifting the states accordingly — is useful for getting a sense of the political leanings of each state independent of whoever happens to be running in that election. You can see from above that Pennsylvania was only the lightest shade of blue in 2012. Georgia was safely red. And the playing field overall was tilted in Obama’s favor — there were more blue-leaning electoral votes than red.

The reverse may be true in 2016 — Clinton’s support is less optimally distributed than Obama’s, according to current polling.
Click to expand...

This is a exercising in punditry hidden in numbers. There's no basis to do this and its comparing election results on election day to her worst polls. And this isn't how poll shifts work.
 
T

Teggy

Member
People are really switching back and forth between Trump and Hillary on a daily basis? I don't really understand this poll movement. Or is this just undecided voters coming off the fence?
 
S

smurfx

get some go again
god i hope hillary and her surrogates can have a solid week of campaigning to get back into the news positively instead of being bogged down with useless shit.
 
N

NYCmetsfan

Banned
Teggy said:
People are really switching back and forth between Trump and Hillary on a daily basis? I don't really understand this poll movement. Or is this just undecided voters coming off the fence?
Click to expand...

No they're shifting between undecided/3rd party and clinton mostly (a few republicans coming home too)

Nobody is going clinton -> trump or trump -> clinton at this point
 
Z

Zukkoyaki

Member
Teggy said:
People are really switching back and forth between Trump and Hillary on a daily basis? I don't really understand this poll movement. Or is this just undecided voters coming off the fence?
Click to expand...

I think Ipsos polls are actually individual polls conducted using people from a larger pool of voters. There's some wonkiness to them but like others have said, they're decent for looking for trends.
 
R

Revolver

Member
mightynine said:
I'm enjoying how the spin now appears to be "Trump tricked the media into hearing endorsements from decorated heroes!"

So, basically, "He lied! But he got the media, so that's ok!"

Let a Democrat do that and conservatives would be screaming about the death of the free press.
Click to expand...

It should be more like he honored them by getting them to pat him on the back and then hid from answering questions.
 
T

Teggy

Member
Zukkoyaki said:
I think Ipsos polls are actually individual polls conducted using people from a larger pool of voters. There's some wonkiness to them but like others have said, they're decent for looking for trends.
Click to expand...

I was thinking all polls in general, but the idea of people moving from undecided makes sense.
 
F

Fragamemnon

Member
Teggy said:
People are really switching back and forth between Trump and Hillary on a daily basis? I don't really understand this poll movement. Or is this just undecided voters coming off the fence?
Click to expand...

No one's changing their mind. Polling shifts mostly come down to which voters decide that they like their candidate so much that they actually spend time doing an interview.
 
J

Joeytj

Banned
Holy shit, all reporters are erasing video of the tour of Trump's hotel, in protest of how he treated the press this morning and in general.

But, oh no, HIllary didn't have press conferences!
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
Teggy said:
People are really switching back and forth between Trump and Hillary on a daily basis? I don't really understand this poll movement. Or is this just undecided voters coming off the fence?
Click to expand...

It's MoE wobbles. +1 to +3 isn't a significant enough movement to suppose change. Trying to analyze it is pointless, you need more polls.
 
R

RustyNails

Member
Joeytj said:
Holy shit, all reporters are erasing video of the tour of Trump's hotel, in protest of how he treated the press this morning and in general.

But, oh no, HIllary didn't have press conferences!
Click to expand...
They largely dropped harping about Hillary's lack of press conferences.
 
O

Oblivion

Fetishing muscular manly men in skintight hosery
Joeytj said:
Holy shit, all reporters are erasing video of the tour of Trump's hotel, in protest of how he treated the press this morning and in general.

But, oh no, HIllary didn't have press conferences!
Click to expand...

Hopefully Trump and his minions attacks them for it giving them more incentive to harp on him further.
 
R

Revolver

Member
Joeytj said:
Holy shit, all reporters are erasing video of the tour of Trump's hotel, in protest of how he treated the press this morning and in general.

But, oh no, HIllary didn't have press conferences!
Click to expand...

A media pool producer was restrained from the tour to keep them from questioning Trump. That's some tinpot dictator shit.
 
H

Hydrophobic

Member
'I guess my statement to Gary Johnson would be, what is Aleppo?'

God damn that is a brutal response to Gary Johnson's statement about not being in the debates.
 
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