• Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.

PoliGAF 2016 |OT10| Jill Stein Inflatable Love Doll

Status
Not open for further replies.
S

Spoiled Milk

Banned
Iolo said:
He was never really a data only guy though, as could be seen from the two 538 screenshots I posted from 5 days apart where he went from "I have serious qualms with how Obama is running his race" to "McCain is fucked" when his model flipped between the two.
Click to expand...
That was Nate Cohn, right? Doesn't Adam mean Silver when he says "good Nate"?

There are so many conflicting opinions on PoliGAF I don't know what to parrot anymore. :( Is Nate Cohn a hack or not?!
 
S

shem935

Banned
Black Mamba said:
CrIHU5nWAAEvHIb.jpg:large
Click to expand...
Why do we need to revaluate our tax code based on a foreign governments decision about an international companies tax requirements?
 
U

User 463088

Banned
Spoiled Milk said:
WHAT DOES THIS MEAN
Click to expand...

Nate Cohn is good Nate.
Nate Silver is acceptable Nate.

It is written.

I've never seen a Johnson ad in Ohio. I wonder if he's on the air here. Guessing the Cleveland market isn't his target, though. Still haven't seen an actual Trump ad in the Cleveland media market.
 
W

whyamihere

Banned
http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-na-pol-polling-differences-20160809-snap-story.html

LOL WHAT, who says this????

Finally, some analysts think the Daybreak poll is slightly tilted toward the Republican side because of how it accounts for the way people voted in the last election.

All pollsters weight their results somewhat to make sure their samples match known demographics — the right proportions of men and women, for example, or blacks, whites and Latinos.

The Daybreak poll goes a step further and weights the sample to account for how people say they voted in 2012: It’s set so that 25% of the sample are voters who say they cast a ballot for Mitt Romney and 27% for President Obama. The rest are either too young to have voted four years ago or say they didn’t vote.

The potential problem is that people tend to fib about how they voted. Polls have often found that the percentage of people who say after an election that they voted for the winner exceeds the winner’s actual vote.

If that’s the case this year, then weighting for the vote history would result in slightly too many Republican voters in the sample, which would probably boost Trump’s standing by a point or two.

Unfortunately, there’s no way to know for sure until we can compare the final vote to the poll’s final forecast. Given how long it takes to count all the votes, that answer won’t be available until at least a week after election day.
Click to expand...
 
P

pigeon

Banned
Grexeno said:
It just seems like this is the first election cycle where he's forcing his numbers to fit his punditry.
Click to expand...

I don't really think he's doing that. 538's model has always had a strong fundamentals component and a lot of uncertainty before the election. The fundamentals for this election are just much worse. Unfortunately, the real situation is pretty different from the hypothetical fundamentals.
 
Link

Link

The Autumn Wind
Boke1879 said:
It's crazy. I Think if this were anyone else these stories would dominate the news and imo would sink a candidate.
Click to expand...
Meanwhile, the media is falling over itself asking if Huma is a security risk because she's leaving her cheating husband.
 
K

Kid Heart

Member
adam387 said:
I mean, if he had an actual ground game, maybe? Like, white, heterosexual, non-college educated men seem to love him. If he was competent, and thank fuck he's not, he could increase turnout. Now, I don't think he could increase it ot 70%, nor do I think he could do it enough to win, mainly because of the Electoral College....but he should be trying!

I'm fucking happy as hell he isn't, though. :p
Click to expand...

Hah, same here. Thank god outrageous news bits can only get him so far.

Also, I'm loving Paul Ryan's tax quote. He never even bothers to explain what part was unfair about the verdict and why. "It violates so many treaties I wont even name you one specifically!" Soulless pandering at its finest.
 
O

Outdoor Miner

Member
FUCK Getting Tim Canova ads when playing Words with Friends... yeah I can't wait til he's gone after today! Feels like I'm in Minority Report with Canova ads following me wherever I go.
 
I

Iolo

Member
There's nothing wrong with Nate S's win% numbers, I certainly don't think a 25% chance of Trump winning is unreasonable. I think he overinterprets small movements in his own results, he's got a useless model (nowcast) and a suspect one (polls plus) which is supposed to account for fundamentals but completely ignores the fundamentals of ground game and gotv. And polls only is so noisy because there's just not enough data yet, I can't see how it's that useful when it moves so fast. I don't blame him for hyping his own product though.

After this election political scientists should have a much firmer theoretical basis for how ad spending, offices, ground presence and gotv affect final results. Really the main exciting thing about this election, nestled between the despair and abject terror
 
U

User 463088

Banned
royalan said:
A Clinton donor had something good happen for them.

I see this quid pro quo.
Click to expand...

I donated $100 to Democrats, and I get published days later. You can't tell me these things aren't related! Many people are saying there's something here. Many people.

johnsmith said:
I hope it has a Chuck Tingle style title

"Pounded up the butt by the GI Bill"
Click to expand...
Hahahaha, no. It's actually sad. It's about a British WW2 vet who fell in love with a man on the front lines. Dude died, and ever since then he's never left his flat. It has a bit of humor in it, but not much. It's depressing as fuck.
 
T

Thunder Monkey

Banned
adam387 said:
I donated $100 to Democrats, and I get published days later. You can't tell me these things aren't related! Many people are saying there's something here. Many people.


Hahahaha, no. It's actually sad. It's about a British WW2 vet who fell in love with a man on the front lines. Dude died, and ever sense then he's never left his flat. It has a bit of humor in it, but not much. It's depressing as fuck.
Click to expand...

That is awesome.

Congrats my friend.
 
U

User 463088

Banned
Thunder Monkey said:
That is awesome.

Congrats my friend.
Click to expand...

TY. :)

Debirudog said:
Ohhhh, I'm curious to read it. I used to like writing stories but my creative writing course made me give up that hobby....
Click to expand...

I'm still not happy with it, even though they accepted it. Once I'm fine with it, maybe I'll share. :p I'm hyper critical of my own work, and I get nervous as fuck when anyone reads it. If I ever finish my cozy, I'll have to be drunk as fuck to actually publish it. I have a degree in Creative writing, and I'm currently going for my Masters. I want to teach writing and/or English, though. I had so much fun teaching my writing class this summer for teens. It was a great experience.
 
M

mo60

Member
Iolo said:
There's nothing wrong with Nate S's win% numbers, I certainly don't think a 25% chance of Trump winning is unreasonable. I think he overinterprets small movements in his own results, he's got a useless model (nowcast) and a suspect one (polls plus) which is supposed to account for fundamentals but completely ignores the fundamentals of ground game and gotv. And polls only is so noisy because there's just not enough data yet, I can't see how it's that useful when it moves so fast. I don't blame him for hyping his own product though.

After this election political scientists should have a much firmer theoretical basis for how ad spending, offices, ground presence and gotv affect final results. Really the main exciting thing about this election, nestled between the despair and abject terror
Click to expand...

Yep. This is the first major US presidential election where the effects of ad spending, ground presence and etc on election result can be tested.

I predict debbie will win her primary by 20 points today.
 
R

RastaMentality

Banned
Kamala released her criminal justice reform plan - http://kamalaharris.org/truthtransparencytrust/

She has to be the only senate candidate this year who's made this their main tent pole issue right?

“Our nation’s criminal justice system faces a crisis of confidence. For too long, our country’s criminal justice system has prioritized being ‘tough on crime’ and offered a reactive approach to crime without addressing its root causes, and the overwhelming majority of criminal justice data shows communities of color and those in our society with the least advantages too often bear the heaviest burdens,” said Harris.
Click to expand...

Can't wait for her to be in the senate.
 
U

User 463088

Banned
This pastor is annoying as all hell. I mean, I guess if the goal is to get Trump's African American support to less than 0, he's great....

"There's no such thing as the African American community"

Um.....?
 
I

ItWasMeantToBe19

Banned
Maduro is imprisoning his political opponents:

Venezuela has arrested several opposition activists accused of plotting violence during an anti-government rally scheduled for Thursday, President Nicolas Maduro said on Tuesday, and opposition leaders slammed the arrests as intimidation.

The opposition is calling on sympathizers from across the country to march in the capital of Caracas to push for a recall referendum against Maduro, who calls the rally a plot to stir up violence and set the stage for a coup.

The upcoming march follows months of tensions between Maduro and the opposition-controlled legislature, exacerbated by triple-digit inflation, Soviet-style product shortages and a severe economic recession.

"We must win the battle against the coup - before, during, and after the dates announced by these fascists," Maduro said in a televised broadcast. "We've captured a group of people carrying important equipment, C4 explosives. We're trying to capture a number of them in real time."

Maduro called opposition party Popular Will "the party of violence that is mixed up in the coup of Sept. 1." He accused opposition leaders of seeking to stage a putsch similar to one that briefly toppled late socialist leader Hugo Chavez in 2002.

Intelligence agents on Tuesday raided Popular Will's offices and arrested long-time street activist Carlos Melo, opposition parties said. Popular Will activist Yon Goicoechea was arrested on Monday on charges of carrying explosives.

Another Popular Will leader, jailed former mayor Daniel Ceballos, was transferred to prison from house arrest on Saturday. He was accused of trying to escape his home to plot violence during the march.
Click to expand...

Not sure about how you're using state violence against political opposition... but the opposition is fascist and not you. But whatever, you do you, Maduro.

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-politics-idUSKCN1152TG
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Similar threads

  • Locked
PoliGAF 2017 |OT6| Made this thread during Harvey because the ratings would be higher
338 339 340 341 342
17K
2M
UselessNapkin replied
  • Locked
PoliGAF 2017 |OT5| The Man In the High Chair
395 396 397 398 399
20K
2M
RDreamer replied
  • Locked
PoliGAF 2017 |OT4| The leaks are coming from inside the white house
396 397 398 399 400
20K
2M
ShironRedshift replied
  • Locked
PoliGAF 2017 |OT3| 13 Treasons Why
393 394 395 396 397
20K
2M
Zaraki_Kenpachi replied
  • Locked
Poligaf 2017 |OT| It Almost Isn't Fair
9
4K
Bonen no Max'd replied
Top Bottom