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PoliGAF 2016 |OT11| Well this is exciting

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Serious question, with the Trump base becoming more and more emboldened (deplorables) and solidified, how the fuck does the GOP fix themselves? I was thinking about the 2020 election and beyond, and I just don't understand how in the hell the GOP could possibly pick a candidate that's palatable to the general electorate. And then in 2024 we likely get a decent bench of candidates that can excite people, or at least not have people actively hating them for made up reasons. I actually just realized how bizarre it will be if the Dems pick a white dude as their candidate after Obama and Hillary.

People here talk about Hillary having already lost in 2020 but the GOP is a party where a potentially strong candidate like Nikki Haley can be disqualified just because there's a picture of her wearing a hijab (I think that's the right name, I'm not too familiar with this stuff). The war between the Trump coalition and moderates trying to save their party will be amazing to see. Cruz might as well have ended his own political career, Kasich betrayed the Trumpers, and Rubio is just a loser.

I also think people need to pay more attention to stories of young people (below voting age) in this election. We have an entire generation of people who associate Trump with racism and are seeing the GOP as the party of racism. That's the kind of stuff that won't show up for years.

I'm probably rambling but I had a long drive home and plenty of time to think. It's just crazy to think about how we're really in the middle of a full-blown culture war in this country.

tl;dr I think the Trump coalition has been baked into the GOP and they have no escape

What if Trump's gains with the poorly educated white electorate stick with the GOP and all the party has to do is nominate someone better at hiding their racism to keep the suburban whites in the fold? And those young people you speak of aren't breaking for Hillary in especially good numbers right now. The GOP brand doesn't look tainted right now, even with Trump at the head of their party their downticket looks pretty resilient. Their near future looks pretty strong actually. 2018 is going to be another bloodbath for Democrats, and with structural changes to the primary process the party will get someone more palatable (not hard with Trump) in 2020.
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
It's not just start ups and the ideology pervades even GAF. It's this tech supremacy type thinking. The idea that this stuff is somehow enlightened and everybody else is luddites.

It's a randian philosophy with billions. It's also built on lies much of the time..

One thing leads to the other. It behooves the tech companies to push that sort of thinking so people will want to buy their shit. Let's be real, stuff like AirBNB and Uber live entirely off of hype. AirBNB had to change their name before anyone would even look at them and Uber had to invent the term "ride sharing" before investors would stop laughing in their faces. The entire industry is built on people smelling their own farts and convincing everyone else to do so as well.

There are people convinced that Zuckerberg's internet balloons in Africa thing is going to do more good than Jimmy Carter making sure people have clean water and shelter. If they didn't believe every issue could be solved with technology and the magic of the internet the entire industry would fall apart.
 

Crayons

Banned
I'm fixin' to go to bed. lol. I'm a mess. :p and I'm old. And I had 2 drinks so I'm even more of a mess.

Awww! ohmigod you can't go to bed now it's too early!

I lost count how many drinks I've had and I smoked a lot of weed too and I'm listening to EDM and I'm so psyched
 
What if Trump's gains with the poorly educated white electorate stick with the GOP and all the party has to do is nominate someone better at hiding their racism to keep the suburban whites in the fold? And those young people you speak of aren't breaking for Hillary in especially good numbers right now. The GOP brand doesn't look tainted right now, even with Trump at the head of their party their downticket looks pretty resilient. Their near future looks pretty strong actually. 2018 is going to be another bloodbath for Democrats, and with structural changes to the primary process the party will get someone more palatable (not hard with Trump) in 2020.

What structural changes will change the fact that 75% of the Republican base wanted Donald Trump or Ted Cruz to be the next president of the United States?
 

Valhelm

contribute something
I really want a post-mortem on how the GOP went from 2012's "We need to outreach more and change our perception problem" to... Trump.

It's pretty simple. The Republicans could not coalesce around a single moderate until it was too late. Had all the establishment goons except Jeb or Rubio dropped, I don't think Trump would have had a serious chance at the nomination.
 
Awww! ohmigod you can't go to bed now it's too early!

I lost count how many drinks I've had and I smoked a lot of weed too and I'm listening to EDM and I'm so psyched
Sorry, bro. I'm just not cool anymore. Never was. Save up that energy for debate night.

It's gonna be great. SOO good. I'm hype. :)
 
Crosspost:

The reporter in question answered with his email correspondence with Luckey.



Given those answers, Luckey did not create the account originally, but the posts are definitely in his own words. So either he lied in that correspondence, didn't understand the questions, or is lying now. Or the reporter is straight up lying.

If the reporter was lying then Facebook's lawyer army would have already gotten a retraction so I think we can throw that one out.
 
What structural changes will change the fact that 75% of the Republican base wanted Donald Trump or Ted Cruz to be the next president of the United States?

That was 2016 and those numbers are misleading because Cruz got a bunch of votes simply because he was the only other option to Trump and Donald ran unopposed for a bunch of primaries. There won't be another Trump, just imitations and Cruz's base is never enough to win the nomination. And even someone channeling Trump but not having all of his baggage or liabilities could potentially be enough for the GOP to win in 2020.
 

sphagnum

Banned
If the Democrats are smart, Republicans this year have given us enough ammo to render them unelectable for a generation at least.

But no more of this olive branch shit. Republicans never give an inch when they're in power so I don't understand why Democrats constantly do. Dems need to spend the next 2/4 years tying Republicans to Trump at every level of government. Shame the fuck out of them. They frankly deserve it.

In a topsy-turvy world where Dems elected a demagogue like Trump, you bet your ass Republicans would do the same.

It should have been immediately obvious to Obama after no House Republicans voted for the stimulus that trying to be inclusive and placate them was a pointless idea.
 
@realDonaldTrump
Crooked Hillary's bad judgement forced her to announce that she would go to Charlotte on Saturday to grandstand. Dem pols said no way, dumb!

...what?
 
i'm not even kidding i really wish you could come!
Aww, you're sweet. :)

So, good movement towards Hillary today in 538. So, that's nice. Good movement from Princeton too. Kos staying winning(ish). Little to no movement from Upshot. Anyone figure out why USC took so long today?
 

Joeytj

Banned
There's been a shooting at a mall in Burlington, Washington. Four people dead, suspect is a Hispanic male, still at large.

Damn.
 

sphagnum

Banned
It's pretty simple. The Republicans could not coalesce around a single moderate until it was too late. Had all the establishment goons except Jeb or Rubio dropped, I don't think Trump would have had a serious chance at the nomination.

Yeah, Trump winning wasn't so much because the entire party base loved him but because he had a huge chunk of support while the other contenders spread themselves too thin.

But say that the 2019 primaries only have two big GOP candidates right off the bat - a Jeb type and a Trump type. Who wins? At this point I don't know anymore.
 

johnsmith

remember me
@realDonaldTrump
Crooked Hillary's bad judgement forced her to announce that she would go to Charlotte on Saturday to grandstand. Dem pols said no way, dumb!

...what?

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/201...-and-trump-urged-to-stay-away-by-citys-mayor/

After days of protests in Charlotte, Mrs Clinton’s campaign team announced she was planning to visit the city on Sunday. Donald Trump is reported to be considering a visit later in the week.

Curfew imposed in Charlotte after riotsPlay!01:04

Even though the city appeared to be calming down, Jennifer Roberts, Charlotte’s mayor, urged the candidates to stay away. She warned that their presence would put an undue burden on the police who have been struggling to keep order.

"We appreciate the support of the candidates. We appreciate that they are concerned about Charlotte," she told CNN.

"At this point, we do have very stretched resources for security and they are working around the clock.

“If there would be a way to delay those visits in terms of giving us a chance to get our city back to order and back to more of a state of normalcy, that would probably be ideal.”

Dumb!
 
Oh that's easy, there's no postmortem needed for that. The electorate wasn't on the same page as the party leaders. The party leaders wanted to pivot more to the center and the electorate wanted more blatant racism and bigotry.



I'm not so sure they do. They might decide moderating on racism and bigotry is worth the win, but outside of Haley everyone else is tainted by Trump. They may just have to jettison the Trump coalition and hope they can rebuild without them.


If there is one thing I've learned from the GOP is that they don't learn lessons, they double down.
 
There once was a young man from Texas
With a strong Presidential cathexis.
He implored "Vote your conscience!"
But his pleas were all nonsense.
Turns out Ted is politically dext'rous.
 

Crayons

Banned
Aww, you're sweet. :)

So, good movement towards Hillary today in 538. So, that's nice. Good movement from Princeton too. Kos staying winning(ish). Little to no movement from Upshot. Anyone figure out why USC took so long today?

No, you're sweet! My party is gonna be lit af, and I invited a few guys who I know are really into me so it's gonna be a good time :)
 

Valhelm

contribute something
Yeah, Trump winning wasn't so much because the entire party base loved him but because he had a huge chunk of support while the other contenders spread themselves too thin.

But say that the 2019 primaries only have two big GOP candidates right off the bat - a Jeb type and a Trump type. Who wins? At this point I don't know anymore.

Any chance that Trump's candidacy could actually shrink the primary electorate for 2019?

I wonder if a substantial number of never-Trump Republicans have been turned away from the party for good.
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
Any chance that Trump's candidacy could actually shrink the primary electorate for 2019?

I wonder if a substantial number of never-Trump Republicans have been turned away from the party for good.

Given how many officials have been kissing the ring, who knows anymore?
 
Any chance that Trump's candidacy could actually shrink the primary electorate for 2019?

I wonder if a substantial number of never-Trump Republicans have been turned away from the party for good.

Polling suggests that they are still voting for Republicans downticket this very year, so I'd say no.

It's pretty simple. The Republicans could not coalesce around a single moderate until it was too late. Had all the establishment goons except Jeb or Rubio dropped, I don't think Trump would have had a serious chance at the nomination.
This is not really accurate. Trump won because he had broad demographic appeal among the Republican base and the structure of the primary favored him because he was strongest in many of the winner-take-all or winner-take-most states.
 
I don't really get what the conversation is about...

Uber farts?

Palmer Luckey is a turd.

I don't know where this other stuff is coming from. If Uber was just hype it would have failed already.

Is this just our regular grrr business talk. Just directed at tech today.
 

Blader

Member
It should have been immediately obvious to Obama after no House Republicans voted for the stimulus that trying to be inclusive and placate them was a pointless idea.

Obama is (was) simultaneously very idealistic/naive about working with Republicans and completely loathe to butter them up outside of the Oval.
 
That was 2016 and those numbers are misleading because Cruz got a bunch of votes simply because he was the only other option to Trump and Donald ran unopposed for a bunch of primaries. There won't be another Trump, just imitations and Cruz's base is never enough to win the nomination. And even someone channeling Trump but not having all of his baggage or liabilities could potentially be enough for the GOP to win in 2020.

Before it was Cruz taking up the 30%, it was Ben Carson.

Cruz's voters weren't moderate Republicans in the end trying to go with the viable anti-Trump option, they were insane dead-enders who PPP polled as only 9% believing that Obama was a Christian. 538 wrote several articles about how at no point during the primary did Cruz break like 12% in any group other than self-described "Very conservative" Republicans.
 

Armaros

Member
It's not just start ups and the ideology pervades even GAF. It's this tech supremacy type thinking. The idea that this stuff is somehow enlightened and everybody else is luddites.

It's a randian philosophy with billions. It's also built on lies much of the time..

Silicon Valley is basicly the homestate of rich white libertarians because of the tech money (now growing alt-right)
 
Before it was Cruz taking up the 30%, it was Ben Carson.

Cruz's voters weren't moderate Republicans in the end trying to go with the viable anti-Trump option, they were insane dead-enders who PPP polled as only 9% believing that Obama was a Christian. 538 wrote several articles about how at no point during the primary did Cruz break like 12% in any group other than self-described "Very conservative" Republicans.

Well Cruz was a regional candidate outclassed by Trump even in what should have been his strongest regions, only Trump's lack of organization in caucuses made Cruz competitive. Kasich never had much of a serious campaign.

But 2020 will be a new race with different faces competing. None of them will be as toxic to the electorate as Trump. I don't think the GOP base will suddenly come to their senses, I just don't think they will need to.
 
Serious question, with the Trump base becoming more and more emboldened (deplorables) and solidified, how the fuck does the GOP fix themselves? I was thinking about the 2020 election and beyond, and I just don't understand how in the hell the GOP could possibly pick a candidate that's palatable to the general electorate. And then in 2024 we likely get a decent bench of candidates that can excite people, or at least not have people actively hating them for made up reasons. I actually just realized how bizarre it will be if the Dems pick a white dude as their candidate after Obama and Hillary.

People here talk about Hillary having already lost in 2020 but the GOP is a party where a potentially strong candidate like Nikki Haley can be disqualified just because there's a picture of her wearing a hijab (I think that's the right name, I'm not too familiar with this stuff). The war between the Trump coalition and moderates trying to save their party will be amazing to see. Cruz might as well have ended his own political career, Kasich betrayed the Trumpers, and Rubio is just a loser.

I also think people need to pay more attention to stories of young people (below voting age) in this election. We have an entire generation of people who associate Trump with racism and are seeing the GOP as the party of racism. That's the kind of stuff that won't show up for years.

I'm probably rambling but I had a long drive home and plenty of time to think. It's just crazy to think about how we're really in the middle of a full-blown culture war in this country.

tl;dr I think the Trump coalition has been baked into the GOP and they have no escape
Well... there's one...

cory-booker.jpg
 

Dan

No longer boycotting the Wolfenstein franchise
Huffington Post - Trump Hotels Covered Up A Massive Credit Card Theft. Then They Let It Happen Again.
WASHINGTON ― Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump’s luxury hotel company agreed Friday to pay a $50,000 settlement and beef up its security systems after investigators found that Trump’s hotels failed to notify customers that a hacker had stolen their credit card numbers and personal information from Trump Hotel computers.

Following the initial identity theft in 2015, Trump’s hotels never implemented the cybersecurity plan they were given to prevent a second attack. As a result, Trump’s hotels and some of his condo properties were hacked again less than a year later. When banks alerted the company to the second hack in March, Trump Hotel Collection waited three more months before telling potential victims about the second hack.

“It is vital in this digital age that companies take all precautions to ensure that consumer information is protected, and that if a data breach occurs, it is reported promptly to our office, in accordance with state law,” said New York Attorney General Eric Schneiderman in a statement about the settlement on Friday. New York law requires that companies inform their customers as soon as possible about the suspected theft of personal information.

After they initially tried to cover up the first cyber attack, hotel employees did nothing to fix the vulnerabilities, despite having received written recommendations on how to protect their customers from hackers and thieves. This left Trump’s hotels defenseless when the hackers struck a second time. Once again, Trump waited months before alerting potential victims.
Over two years, payment systems at seven of Trump’s most prestigious hotels were hacked, and more than 70,000 credit card numbers were stolen, according to the New York attorney general. The breach affected Trump hotels in Chicago, Las Vegas, Toronto, Florida, Hawaii and New York ― in short, the crown jewels of Trump’s hospitality empire.
I can only hope there's a class action lawsuit coming.
 
Well Cruz was a regional candidate outclassed by Trump even in what should have been his strongest regions, only Trump's lack of organization in caucuses made Cruz competitive. Kasich never had much of a serious campaign.

But 2020 will be a new race with different faces competing. None of them will be as toxic to the electorate as Trump. I don't think the GOP base will suddenly come to their senses, I just don't think they will need to.

I'm pretty sure Steve King will be just as toxic to the overall electorate as Trump though.
 

Makai

Member
Software is powerful. People get excited by software companies because there really are a lot of problems that can be solved with computers. There are several web companies which have radically improved my life - e.g. Google, Wikipedia, Amazon, Youtube, Netflix, Spotify. I can't think of any nontech company that has had that kind of impact on me. Chipotle is the best I can come up and that should illustrate how boring the rest of the economy is.
 
Silicon Valley is basicly the homestate of rich white libertarians because of the tech money (now growing alt-right)
Yup. And the press that covers them is a sycophantic sham.

Considering their power we need a more combative press. Not ones that blow their load over a prettier screen on their iPhone

I legit believe the lack of a good silicon valley press is detrimental to our democracy and rights as people
 

Paches

Member
So glad my extended family is safe, some of they were evacuated from the Cascade Mall that just got shot up, as I posted in the main thread.

Gun control was already a top 3 issue for me (and one of the big reasons I wasn't a huge fan of Bernie), but this just reinforces it for me. So close to home, people in this area know everyone else in the area, very tight knit. I have a really bad feeling I will know a name of a person that was killed.

Fuck.
 
Tech media is way more liberal and investigates this stuff more than other entertainment industries.

Sports media doesn't dare to write stories about all the horrible things the owners of the teams do as an example of billionaires trying to advance anti-progressive causes.
 
So glad my extended family is safe, some of they were evacuated from the Cascade Mall that just got shot up, as I posted in the main thread.

Gun control was already a top 3 issue for me (and one of the big reasons I wasn't a huge fan of Bernie), but this just reinforces it for me. So close to home, people in this area know everyone else in the area, very tight knit. I have a really bad feeling I will know a name of a person that was killed.

Fuck.

i am likewise glad your extended family is safe.
 
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